Did Leiweke and Masai get too cute?

[mcHAPPY]

Here are the 'facts' (read: my opinion) as I know it:

This roster had an expiration date sooner than later
1) Leiweke did not like anything about this roster when he took over,
2) If this roster was going to be kept together, Colangelo would not have been effectively fired,


This roster and head coach was never going to compete for a championship
1) CBA restrictions placed seriously close ceiling on potential,
2) The core of the roster is still a Colangelo creation,
3) Casey.... do I need to go there?


The first 45 days of the season/wait and see/evaluate was all a gimmick
1) Ujiri isn't stupid - he knew what this roster is/was,
2) The schedule doomed the team from the beginning... which is the best possible outcome for this roster,
3) Look at the number of tank debates among hardcore and casual fans - blowing it up without giving team a shot would alienate a lot of people.


As subject said, did MU and TL get too cute?
1) Have Gay and DD only lowered their trade value with play through first 10% of season?
2) Has the rest of the league called MU bluff?
3) Is this team, while bad, likely to get a 10th seed once the soft part of schedule starts in January?


I'm just speculating here but I think MU and TL wanted to have their cake and eat it too with regards to going about a blow up or tank or whatever you want to call it. I think the goal was to have the team fail in the first 45 days but key pieces like Gay and DD would have raised their perceived value. Unfortunately it appears with 75% of fans on the tank wagon according to main page poll, the trade pieces have never been perceived lower.

I'm just shooting the poop here, what do you think?

[S.R.]

All speculation, but I would lean towards MU's patience. He just doesn't give pieces away, he waits for good deals. I think he would have and will trade Rudy whenever a deal is available that satisfies him. Unfortunately Rudy is shooting like a huge steaming poo-poo platter. If the season continues along this trajectory, with potential trade pieces performing this poorly - I wonder how that will affect what MU considers to be acceptable deals? Will he end up giving away Gay? Or is he SOOOOOO patient that he doesn't feel pressured by the 2014 draft? Would MU actually keep this team together with a multi-year plan that doesn't hinge on landing a top 5 pick in 2014?

[mcHAPPY]

All speculation, but I would lean towards MU's patience. He just doesn't give pieces away, he waits for good deals. I think he would have and will trade Rudy whenever a deal is available that satisfies him. Unfortunately Rudy is shooting like a huge steaming poo-poo platter. If the season continues along this trajectory, with potential trade pieces performing this poorly - I wonder how that will affect what MU considers to be acceptable deals? Will he end up giving away Gay? Or is he SOOOOOO patient that he doesn't feel pressured by the 2014 draft? Would MU actually keep this team together with a multi-year plan that doesn't hinge on landing a top 5 pick in 2014?

Oh no doubt.

My fear is that offers don't get better.

Still early though.

Lots of time to turn it around and trades won't get serious until December 15th when FA can be traded.

I just worry about reputation and perception.

For example with Rudy the eye thing was a great excuse but with no validity.
For example with DeRozan the potential label has finally worn off.

[psrs1]

Oh no doubt.

My fear is that offers don't get better.

Still early though.

Lots of time to turn it around and trades won't get serious until December 15th when FA can be traded.

I just worry about reputation and perception.

For example with Rudy the eye thing was a great excuse but with no validity.
For example with DeRozan the potential label has finally worn off.

DD has reached and receded from his ceiling. The only real play for MU at this point is a coaching change and hope the value of DD and RG increases. At this point it is unlikely to see any roster moves.

[mcHAPPY]

DD has reached and receded from his ceiling. The only real play for MU at this point is a coaching change and hope the value of DD and RG increases. At this point it is unlikely to see any roster moves.

Yeah, I think a coaching change is going to have to be strongly considered.

The way DD and Gay are playing - and this is AFTER all the media attention JUST LAST WEEK FFS about the ball sticking - something is going to have to give.

It is one thing to tank but you can't kill guys value and reputation around the league while wasting a whole year of development for guys like Ross and JV.

[KazanTheMan]

I think you should elaborate on Casey

[consmap]

I think you should elaborate on Casey

Please refer to your avatar.

[akashsingh]

All speculation, but I would lean towards MU's patience. He just doesn't give pieces away, he waits for good deals. I think he would have and will trade Rudy whenever a deal is available that satisfies him. Unfortunately Rudy is shooting like a huge steaming poo-poo platter. If the season continues along this trajectory, with potential trade pieces performing this poorly - I wonder how that will affect what MU considers to be acceptable deals? Will he end up giving away Gay? Or is he SOOOOOO patient that he doesn't feel pressured by the 2014 draft? Would MU actually keep this team together with a multi-year plan that doesn't hinge on landing a top 5 pick in 2014?

I tend to concur with S.R., masai isn't budging until a good offer presents itself.

[planetmars]

I am still stunned with the fact that MU was able to trade Bargnani the way he did this summer. Bargnani's stock was at the lowest it has ever been at yet MU was still able to get legitimate assets for him. Remember when we were thinking amnesty or trading him for Boozer?

Rudy Gay has been bad but he's still doing some things well (rebounding has been great, defense has been pretty good). His shot will come around as it usually does for a high usage player. His biggest fault 8 games into this season is the same one he had going in to the summer and that is his contract, and his opt out clause. Him opting out could make it difficult for another team to send a decent asset.. but I still think there are teams out there that need to make the playoffs.

Milwaukee, Charlotte, Washington and Detroit could all be looking at Gay and thinking upgrade/playoffs. MU is just waiting for the ideal deal.

As for DD he will still be valuable to a lot of teams. He's still only 24 years old. I think he's at his peak but others may disagree. Regardless there aren't a lot of SG's out there. DD has great character and is a gym rat. Plus he has 4 years remaining in his locked in contract. Easier to trade for a guy like him.

Lowry would be a good backup for teams that have veteran PG's charging for the playoffs. He's an expiring contract so that should be appealing to tax teams. I don't think we can get a lottery pick like we gave up for him but we should still get a first round pick in some up coming draft even if its not this one.

Plus there are a lot of good assets that can be moved with these guys to sweeten pots. Tyler, Novak, DJ, Acy, and even Fields are all good bench players that could return a nice investment. Fields is hard to move because of his contract but even then he'd be a good player to have for a playoff team that needs to improve their bench.

MU's best moves are the ones he makes out of patience as shown from his time in Denver. I still think he's going to wait until Dec 15 before he makes a move. That's when he will have the ability to make a move without desperation. And by then I think Gay and DD will get their numbers closer to their career averages which will make them easier to move.

*EDIT* - just realized I called DJ a decent bench player. Cross him off that list.

[Bendit]

I agree with the premises of the OP and as well concerned about the damage done to Gay's and DD's trade values. Before going the dump Casey plan I would consider at least a revamp of the starting group...essentially breaking up Gay & DD. My view is they are just a bad combo on many levels (inefficient, anemic defense, with their jumpers in the toilet, non existent passing to name a few). They may now have another impediment...competing between them selves as to who the top dog is. This is an assumption of course. Either Fields or Ross would be fine as a replacement with DD coming off the bench.

I just want MU to be have an easier time of selling the asset than what he is now being saddled with. Even a few good games by either/both should be able to give creedence to the thinking that it was the team makeup that was the culprit. It wouldnt hurt to try. And put a cap on Gay's shots taken (about 20) until at least he gets his % in decent shape.

[slaw]

Personally, I think Lowry and Gay have more value as expirings. Neither one will be back next year. Couple that with the 2014-15 changes, this team will have enormous flexibility come 2015 to do anything it wants.

My pet theory is that Ujiri looked at this team and realized he couldn't blow it up and get anything good in return (not without taking back huge contracts), so he settled in with the current team to try and make the playoffs, let Lowry and Gay walk, and move forward.

The only place where maybe they got to cute was thinking that while they waited for 2015 to reinvent the team, the current roster could make them respectable.

[Machine]

DD has reached and receded from his ceiling. The only real play for MU at this point is a coaching change and hope the value of DD and RG increases. At this point it is unlikely to see any roster moves.

i would also seriously consider this.. without a coach that will discipline these players for poor decisions or draw up plays to put them in a position to be successful it looks like rudy and demar are more than happy to run wild without a leash and drive their stock into the ground

[ceez]

i think so

every game i find myself shuddering wondering how the hell the warlord MU is going to trade any of these guys

tho i guess he traded Bargnani to a team that already had a better 3 point shooter and then included said shooter in the trade so maybe i'll hold any kind of reservation until the end of the season this guy is clearly witchcraft

[Craiger]

Personally, I think Lowry and Gay have more value as expirings. Neither one will be back next year. Couple that with the 2014-15 changes, this team will have enormous flexibility come 2015 to do anything it wants.

My pet theory is that Ujiri looked at this team and realized he couldn't blow it up and get anything good in return (not without taking back huge contracts), so he settled in with the current team to try and make the playoffs, let Lowry and Gay walk, and move forward.

The only place where maybe they got to cute was thinking that while they waited for 2015 to reinvent the team, the current roster could make them respectable.

If thats the case though, then the Stuckey/CV deal makes a ton of sense, and passing on it doesn't (unless he's trying to save face for himself or someone else). 2 expirings earlier + Lowry, and then he can start 'reinviting' the team one year earlier.

That said, I don't doubt Masai has had quite the time trying move peices on this roster. Colangelo did a number on this team with his accelerate rebuild. Boggles my mind how this organization even let him do that - just unbelievable.

Here are the 'facts' (read: my opinion)

that made me laugh

[chris]

My pet theory is that Ujiri... settled in with the current team to try and make the playoffs, let Lowry and Gay walk, and move forward.

i agree this was the theory, arsenalist basically spelled it out with this post after the austin daye signing shortly after he had dinner with leiweke or whatever and spilled the beans that the plan is to go for the playoffs and hope that gay opts out and use that money on the market.

and my thought at the time, as craiger has just alluded to, is just WHAT IN THE FUCK is the point of that? to try to get annihilated in the first round, or just plain miss and get a low lottery pick? instead of taking the detroit deal, getting the same financial flexibility as if gay opts out, making the team worse and improving our own chances at getting a franchise changing/all-star level talent while developing the few young promising players we have.

i was furious at the time and i'm more furious now. i definitely think they got too cute. i wish we hired hinkey instead of the massaiah, at least dude could see the writing on the wall and had the balls to go for a proper tank.

i hate this franchise. and i hate that i love this franchise.