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Dec 15th predictions

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  • #16
    I expect that MU thins out the wing position, maybe Novak or Fields, but hopefully Gay.

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    • #17
      I'm not trying to straddle the fence or be non-committal, but I could see the first few days after Dec.15 being extremely busy or completely quiet.

      On one hand, if MU has been planning to change the roster, I expect him to have trades lined up with him just waiting to pull the trigger. On the other hand, I could see him waiting right up until the trade deadline to maximize his return.

      To me, there's 3 players that I fully expect to be traded by the deadline, regardless of the direction MU is taking this team:
      1. Novak
      2. Lowry
      3. Hansborough

      Novak
      - a veteran player who's obviously not in the team's long-term plans
      - reasonable contract ($3.75M / $3.5M / $3.75M the next 3 seasons) for a 3pt specialist

      Hansborough
      - a solid rotation big, who gives you energy, rebounds and deceptively good garbage offense
      - underpaid, cheap, expiring contract (with a great value team option for next season)

      Lowry
      - solid backup PG / sparkplug off the bench (or replacement starter)
      - reasonable expiring contract


      I think Gay is definitely being shopped but, given his contract, he probably isn't nearly as easy to trade for a fair return as the 3 players I mentioned.

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      • #18
        CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
        I'm not trying to straddle the fence or be non-committal, but I could see the first few days after Dec.15 being extremely busy or completely quiet.

        On one hand, if MU has been planning to change the roster, I expect him to have trades lined up with him just waiting to pull the trigger. On the other hand, I could see him waiting right up until the trade deadline to maximize his return.

        To me, there's 3 players that I fully expect to be traded by the deadline, regardless of the direction MU is taking this team:
        1. Novak
        2. Lowry
        3. Hansborough

        Novak
        - a veteran player who's obviously not in the team's long-term plans
        - reasonable contract ($3.75M / $3.5M / $3.75M the next 3 seasons) for a 3pt specialist

        Hansborough
        - a solid rotation big, who gives you energy, rebounds and deceptively good garbage offense
        - underpaid, cheap, expiring contract (with a great value team option for next season)

        Lowry
        - solid backup PG / sparkplug off the bench (or replacement starter)
        - reasonable expiring contract


        I think Gay is definitely being shopped but, given his contract, he probably isn't nearly as easy to trade for a fair return as the 3 players I mentioned.
        This team has no need for Novak with the current coach. Stevie's turning into Kapono 2.0 here. These guys need either
        - a superstar who sucks in defenses and double-teams and leaves perimeter shooters wide open on a consistent basis
        - a system predicated on great ball movement with a high priority placed on 3's (ex. Rockets)

        And they need these things to be a regular part of the team's identity/systems, and for them to have a clearly defined role and
        regular minutes within that system.

        It's basically impossible for a shooter like Novak to play with an irregular role, uncertain minutes, and a lack of systemic open shots. Look at his drop in efficiencies (small sample size!):

        12/13 (Knicks): 1.8-4.3 (3PM-A) = 42.5% 3P%
        13/14 (Raps): 0.6-2.4 (3PM-A) = 23.5% 3P%

        I can't tell you how many times I've seen Novak chased off the 3 pt line this year, forcing him to take one dribble and shoot. Even that throws a guy like this off. He needs to be a wide open, catch and shoot player with a consistent role if you want him to give you 40-50% 3P%.

        There's no point in having him around unless the system's going to change.
        "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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        • #19
          I expect Asik will be traded around that time.
          your pal,
          ebrian

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          • #20
            Demar leaves sometime before February 1st. He will still be averaging over 20 a game and his value be at it's all time highest, netting us a 1st and a pending free agent almost as good as Demar offensively...
            It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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            • #21
              If Toronto sent Novak and Hansbrough to Houston for Asik, the trade would likely go through. Houston could probably use some help at power forward, and the system, as S.R. points out, would be good for Novak.

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              • #22
                caccia wrote: View Post
                If Toronto sent Novak and Hansbrough to Houston for Asik, the trade would likely go through. Houston could probably use some help at power forward, and the system, as S.R. points out, would be good for Novak.
                I think Houston would want Amir at least in return (along with Novak). I don't want Asik though. Include a 3rd team like OKC and maybe ask for Reggie Jackson/Lamb/Perry Jones and a late 1st back.

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                • #23
                  caccia wrote: View Post
                  If Toronto sent Novak and Hansbrough to Houston for Asik, the trade would likely go through. Houston could probably use some help at power forward, and the system, as S.R. points out, would be good for Novak.
                  I'd be concerned about Asik's skill-set overlap with Jonas, but Novak + Hansbrough is a pretty good package. A lot of teams could use 3 pt shooting + rebounding help.
                  "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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