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Is Demar Derozan the real future of this franchise?

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  • Axel wrote: View Post
    As for what Casey wants, based on the fact that we are one of the lowest "fast-break" teams in the league, I'd wager that Demar isn't supposed to be leaking out too much. Only 10% of our team's points are scored on the fast break, tied for 3rd fewest ahead of only the Knicks and Nets (too fairly unathletic teams). With the athletic players we have, we should be running more, but since we're not, we damn well better be boxing out and grabbing boards.
    white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    I think that's being a bit too forgiving, as well as making a major assumption and providing a bad excuse. If I were a defensive coach (as Casey is supposed to be), no one would be allowed to leak out like that often. Securing the board would be the most important thing (kinda pointless to leak out otherwise). DeMar has had this trend under 2 different coaches. Also, rebounding has been a major team issue in all DeMar's previous years. Don't think coaches of teams that are frequently getting beat on the glass would stress leaking out over securing the board.
    We're talking about Dwane Casey. Nothing he does makes sense

    Comment


    • So when he is in position to actually "win" a rebound, he's about 50%, but we don't know how often he should be in position but isn't.
      Wrong. They have a stat that actually tracks this, which is the one I mentioned earlier (percentage of rebounds per chance). It tracks what percentage of rebounds a player grabs when they are within 3.5 feet of the ball. For DeMar this number is 69% not 50.

      Comment


      • white men can't jump wrote: View Post
        There's no way 4.0 rebounds in 38 minutes is good for a player who's probably between 6'6'' and 6'7''.

        DeMar is grabbing 69 % of his rebound chances....Ok, well that just means that given his actual rebound numbers, he's not crashing the glass often enough to come away with more. Not actually giving himself as many chances as he should. This is even worse. It's not "he's trying to rebound but he's just doing as well as he can"...It's "he could do a lot better if he actually made the effort to get after it". This is an effort/awareness issue. He's too passive, or eager to leak out (before possession is even secure), or something like that...

        Love or hate DeMar, his rebounding numbers have always been subpar given his size, strength and athletic ability. He's had some decent games/stretches, but he's never maintained the kind of numbers you'd hope for from him.
        Consistency.

        Easy to be d!ck swinging when he is playing amazing - but we've seen stretches of this before. In his 2nd/3rd year he had me fooled on multiple occasions.

        I'm waiting for a solid half season to make any judgements on this season thus far.

        BUT thus far these last 8 games, he has proven me wrong. He is NOT what he is in this sample of games.

        Comment


        • Nosike wrote: View Post
          Wrong. They have a stat that actually tracks this, which is the one I mentioned earlier (percentage of rebounds per chance). It tracks what percentage of rebounds a player grabs when they are within 3.5 feet of the ball. For DeMar this number is 69% not 50.
          Not wrong. If you aren't going to read all the posts in full then there's no point in posting a reply.

          69% is his rebound rate for all chances. There is no stat for % of rebounds in a contested state. If you look at his per game numbers though, he brings in 0.9 boards in 2.0 contested chances per game, so about 50%.

          If you have me on ignore then you won't see all the data and are just arguing with yourself. If you don't have me on ignore, then you are willfully ignoring the posts and still arguing with yourself.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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          • Axel wrote: View Post
            If you have me on ignore then you won't see all the data and are just arguing with yourself. If you don't have me on ignore, then you are willfully ignoring the posts and still arguing with yourself.
            He seems to be doing that a lot in this thread.

            Comment


            • What those stats say to me, and let's compare him to someone like Gordon Hayward, who only plays 2 minutes less per game and plays the same position. We could also compare him to Beal, Hardon, Thompson or Ellis, but I feel Hayward is a better comparison because he is of a similar level of player as DD, though is considered a little more rounded.

              DD
              Of his 5.6 total rebound opportunities, he is grabbing 0.9 contested and 2.9 uncontested. This leaves 1.7 rebounds that he isn't getting, which will all be a part of contested rebounds, and will add up to a contested rebound opportunity rate of 2.6 out of a total of 5.6, or, in other words, 46% of his rebound opportunities are contested(which is really low after calculating this again for multiple players at multiple positions), it means he doesn't crash the boards much (eye test confirmed). Take into account that he is getting 24% of his rebounds from contested opportunities and we will see that DD has a contested rebound rate of 52%.

              now for some context

              GH
              7.9 rebound opportunities, grabbing 1.6 contested and 3.9 uncontested for a total of 5.5 rebounds per game. That leaves 2.4 rebounds per game that he isn't getting (which again will count towards contested). Therefore he has a contested rebound opportunity rate of 4 per game out of 7.9, or 50.6% of his rebound opportunities are contested, so he is crashing the glass more than DD, in less mpg. He is getting 29% of his total rebounds from contested opportunities,so he has a contested rebound rate of 58%.


              For further context on my contested rebound rate usage, Kevin Love grabs 65% of his contested rebounds, Jeff Teague for example is on the opposite end of the spectrum, grabs only 28% of his contested rebounds, but has a higher (12% higher in fact) rate of being around the rebound (contested rebound opportunities), of which DD is one of the LOWEST I have found.

              Conclusion:
              DD is not a bad rebounder (more like average) when in a position to rebound, BUT, he is AWFUL at being in a position too rebound, which is miles worse than being a bad rebounder, because being in position means at least that you are bodied up on someone/boxing out/moving


              TL;DR

              DD is one of the worst at being in a position to rebound the ball, and most of his rebounds are actually just bouncing to him when there is no-one else around. Yes he is an alright player at actually getting the rebound (as per contested rebound rate), but the fact is that he just doesn't get in any position to rebound (which is a detrimental trend to a team when playing 38.6 mpg), and therefor is a BAD REBOUNDER and needs to improve, especially if we want to contend/play in the playoffs where players start hitting the boards harder
              Last edited by OldSkoolCool; Mon Dec 2, 2013, 05:02 PM.

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              • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                Conclusion:
                DD is not a bad rebounder (more like average) when in a position to rebound, BUT, he is AWFUL at being in a position too rebound, which is miles worse than being a bad rebounder, because being in position means at least that you are bodied up on someone/boxing out/moving


                TL;DR

                DD is one of the worst at being in a position to rebound the ball, and most of his rebounds are actually just bouncing to him when there is no-one else around. Yes he is an alright player at actually getting the rebound (as per contested rebound rate), but the fact is that he just doesn't get in any position to rebound (which is a detrimental trend to a team when playing 38.6 mpg), and therefor is a BAD REBOUNDER and needs to improve, especially if we want to contend/play in the playoffs where players start hitting the boards harder
                I think you did a nice job providing a comparison, but I don't fully agree with your conclusion.

                I think it's far more likely that a player like DeRozan is rarely in position to fight for rebounds, due to where he plays. The Raptors typically run an offense with 4 players around the perimeter, so unless it's a long or tipped rebound, he's unlikely to get any offensive rebounding opportunities (aside from rebounds off his own misses on drives).

                Defensively, DeRozan guards a perimeter player, which again takes him away from the basket within the flow/context of the game. His defensive rebounds typically come either when the player he's defending drives to the basket, or when his mean releases defensively (leaving DeRozan available to sneak in for weak-side rebounds).

                DeRozan is not a great rebounder, but it's as more to do with how/where he's being asked to play. A much more telling stat would be if he had many more contested rebounding opportunities that he lost to the opposition. If he's hovering around 50% on contested rebound opportunities, I think that means he's an average rebounder. He definitely isn't a natural rebounder and certainly doesn't have a nose for rebounding, but he's not really a bad rebounder either. Pretty much like everything he does, he's frustratingly average.

                Comment


                • Yep DeRozan is average at everything.

                  This is exactly the kind of stuff I'm getting tired of reading on here.

                  Comment


                  • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                    I think you did a nice job providing a comparison, but I don't fully agree with your conclusion.

                    I think it's far more likely that a player like DeRozan is rarely in position to fight for rebounds, due to where he plays. The Raptors typically run an offense with 4 players around the perimeter, so unless it's a long or tipped rebound, he's unlikely to get any offensive rebounding opportunities (aside from rebounds off his own misses on drives).

                    Defensively, DeRozan guards a perimeter player, which again takes him away from the basket within the flow/context of the game. His defensive rebounds typically come either when the player he's defending drives to the basket, or when his mean releases defensively (leaving DeRozan available to sneak in for weak-side rebounds).

                    DeRozan is not a great rebounder, but it's as more to do with how/where he's being asked to play. A much more telling stat would be if he had many more contested rebounding opportunities that he lost to the opposition. If he's hovering around 50% on contested rebound opportunities, I think that means he's an average rebounder. He definitely isn't a natural rebounder and certainly doesn't have a nose for rebounding, but he's not really a bad rebounder either. Pretty much like everything he does, he's frustratingly average.
                    1st bold - Nope, he is still one of the worst at getting to position for SG's

                    2nd bold - DD grabs 0.6 offensive rebounds per game, which will contribute to his 0.9 contested rebounds...which is pretty average when compared to the other SG's...average

                    3rd bold - DD grabs about as many contested defensive rebounds as other guards, but is doing so at a lower rate...meaning he isn't in good positioning compared to other SG's in terms of defensive rebounding (ie he doesn't box out as much)

                    4th bold - I stated that he is actually an average rebounder when in position, but if he is very bad at being in proper position to rebound, he will still be a bad rebounder. The two main stats that I outlined, the rate at which they convert on contested rebounds, and the rate at which they have the opportunity to grab the rebound must be taken in conjunction with each other, the stats by themselves mean nothing. For my example with Teague, he is often in the right spot to grab a rebound, but has a poor conversion rate, so he is a poor rebounder. A good rebounder has a high conversion and opportunity rate, whereas bad rebounders lack in one area or both.

                    In conclusion, with how bad he is at being in the right spot, he is an awful rebounder.

                    I define a good (not great) player as being able to contribute in any 3 ways when they are on the floor. For example, Ross (who for all intensive purposes is largely unproven) can spread the floor with his shot (1), play hard defence (2), is unselfish and passes/drives efficiently after initial penetration (3), now, he is a terrible rebounder, but since he is good at three other areas, this area of his game can be overlooked because he is still a contributing factor

                    DD can score (1), get to the free throw line (part of scoring but ok 2), that's it, he isn't a playmaker and he is an average-at-best defender and as I just outlined he isn't a good rebounder.

                    DeMar is a one dimensional player, and any team that tries to have 1 dimensional players have significant roles are destined to fail. And that's why DD is not the real deal and we need to cash in on him now, instead of pulling a Bargnani all over again. He just isn't a player to build around. He is a great piece to add to a core for sure. He is a sixth man scorer and that's it, there is no evidence to prove that he can become anything more than that. Part of building a contending team is being realistic with your player evaluations, there is a point where you have to stop saying "potential to do this or that" and start looking at what the player actually does. For SG's by the mid to end of year 3 you will know what kind of player you have. (DD was an empty scorer then...and still is, ie sixth man...)
                    Last edited by OldSkoolCool; Mon Dec 2, 2013, 06:17 PM.

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                    • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                      I think it's far more likely that a player like DeRozan is rarely in position to fight for rebounds, due to where he plays. The Raptors typically run an offense with 4 players around the perimeter, so unless it's a long or tipped rebound, he's unlikely to get any offensive rebounding opportunities (aside from rebounds off his own misses on drives).

                      Defensively, DeRozan guards a perimeter player, which again takes him away from the basket within the flow/context of the game. His defensive rebounds typically come either when the player he's defending drives to the basket, or when his mean releases defensively (leaving DeRozan available to sneak in for weak-side rebounds).

                      DeRozan is not a great rebounder, but it's as more to do with how/where he's being asked to play. A much more telling stat would be if he had many more contested rebounding opportunities that he lost to the opposition. If he's hovering around 50% on contested rebound opportunities, I think that means he's an average rebounder. He definitely isn't a natural rebounder and certainly doesn't have a nose for rebounding, but he's not really a bad rebounder either. Pretty much like everything he does, he's frustratingly average.
                      This is EXACTLY the argument people used for years to justify Bargnani's lack of rebounding. Guess what: it is wrong. It is the responsibility of every member of the team to box out, unless you have been specifically asked to leak out or get back on defense to stop breaks. I have not observed Demar doing either of those things, so it is easy to attribute his lack of rebounds to the same problem Bargs had: lack of effort or lack of understanding. The damning fact is that he has good rebounding stretches. If he is able to do it sometimes but doesn't do it consistently for no discernable reason (e.g. Match ups), the only reasonable explanations are that sometimes he tries and sometimes he doesn't or he doesn't understand the positioning and gets lucky. Regardless, it's hopefully something he plans to work on.
                      "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

                      -Churchill

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                      • Nosike wrote: View Post
                        Yep DeRozan is average at everything.

                        This is exactly the kind of stuff I'm getting tired of reading on here.
                        I meant aside from scoring. If you want to post something constructive to the conversation, do so. Nobody gives two shits what you're tired of reading.

                        And if you'd read my entire post instead of simply attacked me like you do with any other poster you disagree with about anything, in your quest to prove a fucking point, you'd realize that I was actually defending DeRozan in this instance.

                        Comment


                        • hateslosing wrote: View Post
                          This is EXACTLY the argument people used for years to justify Bargnani's lack of rebounding. Guess what: it is wrong. It is the responsibility of every member of the team to box out, unless you have been specifically asked to leak out or get back on defense to stop breaks. I have not observed Demar doing either of those things, so it is easy to attribute his lack of rebounds to the same problem Bargs had: lack of effort or lack of understanding. The damning fact is that he has good rebounding stretches. If he is able to do it sometimes but doesn't do it consistently for no discernable reason (e.g. Match ups), the only reasonable explanations are that sometimes he tries and sometimes he doesn't or he doesn't understand the positioning and gets lucky. Regardless, it's hopefully something he plans to work on.
                          Perhaps I misread/misunderstood that stat being quoted. I thought it was specifically talking about rebounds that were near DeRozan, that he was considered to have a chance at getting. If the stat shows him getting 50% of contested rebounds, then that's not too bad (again, I was basing that on the single comparison shown). That stat doesn't talk about boxing out or anything having to do with team rebounding - and I wasn't commenting about any of that. I was simply pointing out that I felt that too much was being concluded from that particular stat being discussed.

                          In no way was I arguing that DeRozan was an above average rebounder or defender, in general.

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                          • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                            Perhaps I misread/misunderstood that stat being quoted. I thought it was specifically talking about rebounds that were near DeRozan, that he was considered to have a chance at getting. If the stat shows him getting 50% of contested rebounds, then that's not too bad (again, I was basing that on the single comparison shown). That stat doesn't talk about boxing out or anything having to do with team rebounding - and I wasn't commenting about any of that. I was simply pointing out that I felt that too much was being concluded from that particular stat being discussed.

                            In no way was I arguing that DeRozan was an above average rebounder or defender, in general.
                            Fair enough, I must have misunderstood your post about positionning or taken it out of context. Cheers!
                            "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

                            -Churchill

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                            • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                              Perhaps I misread/misunderstood that stat being quoted. I thought it was specifically talking about rebounds that were near DeRozan, that he was considered to have a chance at getting. If the stat shows him getting 50% of contested rebounds, then that's not too bad (again, I was basing that on the single comparison shown). That stat doesn't talk about boxing out or anything having to do with team rebounding - and I wasn't commenting about any of that. I was simply pointing out that I felt that too much was being concluded from that particular stat being discussed.

                              In no way was I arguing that DeRozan was an above average rebounder or defender, in general.
                              I really agree and I'm the one who originally posted the stats on this. Player tracker data is way too raw at this point to even know what is considered average, or elite for any position or even in general.

                              As I said in a previous post, the data doesn't take into account boxing out, schemed rebounding responsibilities, etc, so it's really hard to say at this point what is average. When I posted the original stat, I commented that it's just for info and that people can take it for what it is. I do think Demar is likely an average rebounder, but I don't think it's an ability thing as much as a focus thing. Demar has never tried to be a good rebounder and therefor isn't in the habit of getting good positioning, boxing out, or chasing down boards.

                              If I were the coach, I'd definitely want both wingers rebounding because we have the speed to get out in transition anyway. It is quite frustrating to watch the bigs bang down low while the wingers just stand around and wait for the ball.
                              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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