Food for thought regarding the long 2. If basketball tactics acted like the market, teams will start leaving the 2 point open and guarding the three/lay up until each play yields similar results. From ESPN insider:
Sorry for the crappy formatting on the tables, they aren't that important anyways.
There is no more important concept on the front burner of basketball minds than efficiency. The rise of "Mathketball" -- basketball strategy driven by analytics -- has influenced the way the best teams execute both offense and defense, as teams seek to capitalize on scoring opportunities by attempting shots in high efficiency areas while simultaneously limiting those of their opponents.
The main scoring areas in the half court are commonly broken down into three categories: rim field goal attempts, midrange and 3-point attempts (which can be further broken down into corner versus above the break 3-pointers). The most efficient shots are layups and dunks at the rim, followed by 3-pointers, so it stands to reason that the most efficient style of offense would emphasize shots in these spaces and try to minimize the number of shots in the midrange.
The idea is that the rate of success for making rim field goal attempts is much higher than making jump shots, and if you are going to take a jump shot, you might as well take a few steps back and be awarded an extra point for the added risk. The "long 2-point attempt (from farther than 16 feet) is the worst shot in basketball" nomenclature is derived from this concept, that the shooter is assuming more risk for less reward.
The prototypes
On the offensive end, no team espouses this philosophy more dogmatically than the Houston Rockets, who have taken 100 fewer long 2-point attempts than the next closest team, with the vast majority of their field goal attempts coming at the rim or beyond the arc. Watching the Rockets on film, you can see most of their perimeter players attack hard closeouts at the arc with hard drives to the basket. If rebuffed, they'll see to kick back to the perimeter and either get an open 3-point attempt or repeat the cycle, as if the offense was on autopilot.
Defensively, the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are the standard bearers for forcing opponents to do exactly what Houston strives to avoid: take as few 3PA as possible and as many long 2PA as possible. Their perimeter defenders are instructed to close extremely hard on would-be 3-point shooters, forcing them to dribble into midrange. Meanwhile, their weakside help (usually bigs) will "load" into the paint to discourage any forays to the rim. Similarly, on pick-and-roll coverage, the perimeter defender will fight over the screen while the big will sag back rather than aggressively hedge or trap the ball handler. The plan here is clear: discourage high efficiency shots at the rim and from beyond the arc and encourage the "worst shot in basketball."
Predicted evolution
Even with the skewed reward system, at the end of the day an open shot is (usually) more efficient than a contested one.
But basketball is a living and breathing organism, and offenses and defenses are in a constant flux of adaptation and reaction. The long 2PA is a bad shot because of the math, but also because there aren't many great long 2PA shooters in the league (the lost art of the midrange).
Even with the skewed reward system, at the end of the day an open shot is (usually) more efficient than a contested one. As such, it stands to reason that as more and more teams adopt the type of defensive principles practiced by the Pacers and Bulls, the greater the need for players who are able to exploit the inherent weakness in the system: the midrange jumper. I spoke about this on TrueHoop TV last week. Here are some examples:
Versus closeouts
In the screenshot above, we see Portland's Damian Lillard receive a strong side-to-weak side pass on the wing and go into his shooting motion from beyond the arc. Indiana's George Hill reacts by closing hard (running him off the 3-point line).
In the second screenshot, we see Lillard utilize an escape dribble to blow by Hill. Notice the next closest defender is Luis Scola, who is parked in front of the restricted area (presumably to discourage a rim assault with the threat of taking the charge). Scola is in no position to contest Lillard's shot since it is what Indiana has decided it will give up: the long 2-point attempt. It's an area of strength, however, for Lillard, who is shooting 46.7 percent from 16-to-24 feet, and he knocks down the shot with ease.
Versus sagging pick-and-roll coverage
In this screenshot, J.J. Redick of the Clippers is getting a step-up screen from Blake Griffin, freeing him from Chicago's Tony Snell, who along with Joakim Noah executes a defensive strategy used around the league known as "ice." The object is to prevent Redick from getting back to the middle of the floor so as to use the sideline and baseline as extra defenders. Unfortunately for the Bulls, Noah is reluctant to come out too far from the paint (fearing giving up a blow-by and layup), so he sags back some.
Redick creates space by moving parallel to the paint rather than penetrating and pulls up for the long 2-point attempt, where he's shooting 51.7 percent, and knocks it down. Again, this is the shot that Chicago's defense would prefer to give up.
The best midrange shooters
It's important to note in the above examples, the offensive players were able to create so much space in part because of the threat of their prowess. For instance, if Chuck Hayes (a career 0-for-13 from beyond the arc) were the player in our first example, it is hard to imagine Hill closing so hard that he would not be able to prevent a Hayes blow-by. In other words, there is a bare minimum 3-point shooting requirement for defenses to react to up-fakes, a basketball "Mendoza Line" if you will.
For most teams, this threshold lies at about 30 percent; anything less than that and the defense does not need to be as vigilant at discouraging the 3-point attempt. If a player were to shoot only 3s and convert 30 percent, his effective field goal percentage would be 45 percent (thus a player who shoots 30 percent from 3-point range and 45 percent from long 2-point range has the same risk/reward for either attempt). Using those two figures as baseline levels, here are the top midrange shooters this season.
Top midrange shooters for 2013-14
*minimum 20 2-point attempts
Player Team Long 2-point FGM FGA FG% 3-point FGM FGA FG%
Jared Sullinger BOS 14 24 58.33 16 51 31.37
Gerald Green PHX 18 31 58.06 48 130 36.92
Jordan Farmar LAL 14 25 56.00 22 56 39.29
Jared Dudley LAC 23 42 54.76 25 73 34.25
Andrea Bargnani NYK 32 60 53.33 21 62 33.87
Klay Thompson GSW 36 69 52.17 71 151 47.02
Jamal Crawford LAC 37 71 52.11 41 116 35.34
J.J. Redick LAC 30 58 51.72 33 92 35.87
Chris Paul LAC 34 66 51.52 24 77 31.17
Mo Williams POR 28 55 50.91 18 49 36.73
Ryan Anderson NOP 13 26 50.00 37 74 50.00
Xavier Henry LAL 12 24 50.00 16 33 48.48
Avery Bradley BOS 58 118 49.15 19 55 34.55
Andrew Nicholson ORL 21 43 48.84 12 35 34.29
Goran Dragic PHX 17 35 48.57 18 58 31.03
Paul George IND 39 81 48.15 58 135 42.96
Wesley Matthews POR 12 25 48.00 56 114 49.12
Dirk Nowitzki DAL 47 99 47.47 32 76 42.11
Stephen Curry GSW 38 81 46.91 57 133 42.86
Damian Lillard POR 21 45 46.67 62 146 42.47
Jarrett Jack CLE 31 68 45.59 19 47 40.43
Kyle Korver ATL 15 33 45.45 46 88 52.27
Arron Afflalo ORL 39 86 45.35 47 114 41.23
Martell Webster WAS 9 20 45.00 47 114 41.23
For a larger sample size, here are the best midrange shooters over the past two seasons:
Top midrange shooters since 2012-13 season
Player Team Long 2-point FGM FGA FG% 3-point FGM FGA FG%
Dirk Nowitzki DAL 166 337 49.26 97 233 41.63
Chris Paul LAC 139 286 48.60 100 307 32.57
Steve Nash LAL 54 112 48.21 62 142 43.66
Wayne Ellington CLE/MEM/DAL 65 135 48.15 99 255 38.82
J.J. Redick ORL/MIL/LAC 126 262 48.09 198 543 36.46
Jared Dudley PHX/LAC 101 211 47.87 131 342 38.30
Kyle Korver ATL 78 163 47.85 235 502 46.81
Ryan Anderson NOP 87 186 46.77 250 629 39.75
Stephen Curry GSW 209 449 46.55 329 727 45.25
Jose Calderon TOR/DET/DAL 125 269 46.47 181 389 46.53
Avery Bradley BOS 122 263 46.39 60 182 32.97
Andrea Bargnani TOR/NYK 85 184 46.20 59 185 31.89
Andrew Nicholson ORL 94 204 46.08 12 35 34.29
Jarrett Jack GSW/CLE 150
The main scoring areas in the half court are commonly broken down into three categories: rim field goal attempts, midrange and 3-point attempts (which can be further broken down into corner versus above the break 3-pointers). The most efficient shots are layups and dunks at the rim, followed by 3-pointers, so it stands to reason that the most efficient style of offense would emphasize shots in these spaces and try to minimize the number of shots in the midrange.
The idea is that the rate of success for making rim field goal attempts is much higher than making jump shots, and if you are going to take a jump shot, you might as well take a few steps back and be awarded an extra point for the added risk. The "long 2-point attempt (from farther than 16 feet) is the worst shot in basketball" nomenclature is derived from this concept, that the shooter is assuming more risk for less reward.
The prototypes
On the offensive end, no team espouses this philosophy more dogmatically than the Houston Rockets, who have taken 100 fewer long 2-point attempts than the next closest team, with the vast majority of their field goal attempts coming at the rim or beyond the arc. Watching the Rockets on film, you can see most of their perimeter players attack hard closeouts at the arc with hard drives to the basket. If rebuffed, they'll see to kick back to the perimeter and either get an open 3-point attempt or repeat the cycle, as if the offense was on autopilot.
Defensively, the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are the standard bearers for forcing opponents to do exactly what Houston strives to avoid: take as few 3PA as possible and as many long 2PA as possible. Their perimeter defenders are instructed to close extremely hard on would-be 3-point shooters, forcing them to dribble into midrange. Meanwhile, their weakside help (usually bigs) will "load" into the paint to discourage any forays to the rim. Similarly, on pick-and-roll coverage, the perimeter defender will fight over the screen while the big will sag back rather than aggressively hedge or trap the ball handler. The plan here is clear: discourage high efficiency shots at the rim and from beyond the arc and encourage the "worst shot in basketball."
Predicted evolution
Even with the skewed reward system, at the end of the day an open shot is (usually) more efficient than a contested one.
But basketball is a living and breathing organism, and offenses and defenses are in a constant flux of adaptation and reaction. The long 2PA is a bad shot because of the math, but also because there aren't many great long 2PA shooters in the league (the lost art of the midrange).
Even with the skewed reward system, at the end of the day an open shot is (usually) more efficient than a contested one. As such, it stands to reason that as more and more teams adopt the type of defensive principles practiced by the Pacers and Bulls, the greater the need for players who are able to exploit the inherent weakness in the system: the midrange jumper. I spoke about this on TrueHoop TV last week. Here are some examples:
Versus closeouts
In the screenshot above, we see Portland's Damian Lillard receive a strong side-to-weak side pass on the wing and go into his shooting motion from beyond the arc. Indiana's George Hill reacts by closing hard (running him off the 3-point line).
In the second screenshot, we see Lillard utilize an escape dribble to blow by Hill. Notice the next closest defender is Luis Scola, who is parked in front of the restricted area (presumably to discourage a rim assault with the threat of taking the charge). Scola is in no position to contest Lillard's shot since it is what Indiana has decided it will give up: the long 2-point attempt. It's an area of strength, however, for Lillard, who is shooting 46.7 percent from 16-to-24 feet, and he knocks down the shot with ease.
Versus sagging pick-and-roll coverage
In this screenshot, J.J. Redick of the Clippers is getting a step-up screen from Blake Griffin, freeing him from Chicago's Tony Snell, who along with Joakim Noah executes a defensive strategy used around the league known as "ice." The object is to prevent Redick from getting back to the middle of the floor so as to use the sideline and baseline as extra defenders. Unfortunately for the Bulls, Noah is reluctant to come out too far from the paint (fearing giving up a blow-by and layup), so he sags back some.
Redick creates space by moving parallel to the paint rather than penetrating and pulls up for the long 2-point attempt, where he's shooting 51.7 percent, and knocks it down. Again, this is the shot that Chicago's defense would prefer to give up.
The best midrange shooters
It's important to note in the above examples, the offensive players were able to create so much space in part because of the threat of their prowess. For instance, if Chuck Hayes (a career 0-for-13 from beyond the arc) were the player in our first example, it is hard to imagine Hill closing so hard that he would not be able to prevent a Hayes blow-by. In other words, there is a bare minimum 3-point shooting requirement for defenses to react to up-fakes, a basketball "Mendoza Line" if you will.
For most teams, this threshold lies at about 30 percent; anything less than that and the defense does not need to be as vigilant at discouraging the 3-point attempt. If a player were to shoot only 3s and convert 30 percent, his effective field goal percentage would be 45 percent (thus a player who shoots 30 percent from 3-point range and 45 percent from long 2-point range has the same risk/reward for either attempt). Using those two figures as baseline levels, here are the top midrange shooters this season.
Top midrange shooters for 2013-14
*minimum 20 2-point attempts
Player Team Long 2-point FGM FGA FG% 3-point FGM FGA FG%
Jared Sullinger BOS 14 24 58.33 16 51 31.37
Gerald Green PHX 18 31 58.06 48 130 36.92
Jordan Farmar LAL 14 25 56.00 22 56 39.29
Jared Dudley LAC 23 42 54.76 25 73 34.25
Andrea Bargnani NYK 32 60 53.33 21 62 33.87
Klay Thompson GSW 36 69 52.17 71 151 47.02
Jamal Crawford LAC 37 71 52.11 41 116 35.34
J.J. Redick LAC 30 58 51.72 33 92 35.87
Chris Paul LAC 34 66 51.52 24 77 31.17
Mo Williams POR 28 55 50.91 18 49 36.73
Ryan Anderson NOP 13 26 50.00 37 74 50.00
Xavier Henry LAL 12 24 50.00 16 33 48.48
Avery Bradley BOS 58 118 49.15 19 55 34.55
Andrew Nicholson ORL 21 43 48.84 12 35 34.29
Goran Dragic PHX 17 35 48.57 18 58 31.03
Paul George IND 39 81 48.15 58 135 42.96
Wesley Matthews POR 12 25 48.00 56 114 49.12
Dirk Nowitzki DAL 47 99 47.47 32 76 42.11
Stephen Curry GSW 38 81 46.91 57 133 42.86
Damian Lillard POR 21 45 46.67 62 146 42.47
Jarrett Jack CLE 31 68 45.59 19 47 40.43
Kyle Korver ATL 15 33 45.45 46 88 52.27
Arron Afflalo ORL 39 86 45.35 47 114 41.23
Martell Webster WAS 9 20 45.00 47 114 41.23
For a larger sample size, here are the best midrange shooters over the past two seasons:
Top midrange shooters since 2012-13 season
Player Team Long 2-point FGM FGA FG% 3-point FGM FGA FG%
Dirk Nowitzki DAL 166 337 49.26 97 233 41.63
Chris Paul LAC 139 286 48.60 100 307 32.57
Steve Nash LAL 54 112 48.21 62 142 43.66
Wayne Ellington CLE/MEM/DAL 65 135 48.15 99 255 38.82
J.J. Redick ORL/MIL/LAC 126 262 48.09 198 543 36.46
Jared Dudley PHX/LAC 101 211 47.87 131 342 38.30
Kyle Korver ATL 78 163 47.85 235 502 46.81
Ryan Anderson NOP 87 186 46.77 250 629 39.75
Stephen Curry GSW 209 449 46.55 329 727 45.25
Jose Calderon TOR/DET/DAL 125 269 46.47 181 389 46.53
Avery Bradley BOS 122 263 46.39 60 182 32.97
Andrea Bargnani TOR/NYK 85 184 46.20 59 185 31.89
Andrew Nicholson ORL 94 204 46.08 12 35 34.29
Jarrett Jack GSW/CLE 150
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