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  • Jamshid wrote: View Post
    It does not take a crystal ball. It takes knowledge of the game, insight and little research. It is just like the stock market. The uneducated relies on Crystal balls and the educated, uses the tools that are available.

    This is why you see a guy like UM not falling for the fool's gold. He knows what the ceiling of this group of guys is and he is not going to sit around ( like the last guy did for 7 years) and hope for something to happen.

    Even without your crystal ball, guy like UM knows and this is why he is not going to get cut in no man's land with this group of guys and waste more years.
    I'm going to be that guy....It's MU..Masai Ujiri. Your post talks about being educated and using available tools. Can we at least get this guy's initials in the right order?

    It's just like people spelling Colangelo's first name Brian for years and years even though it's Bryan.

    *Sorry to be that guy, but seriously, how does such a mistake get made?

    Comment


    • A couple points, hopefully divorced from the debate over tanking v. not-tanking.

      1. Cap space for us in 2014 is relatively meaningless. Who are we going to sign, exactly? We're not signing LeBron - he's only going to a team that's a serious contender because he wants rings, and "hey look we made the bottom half of the East" isn't going to cut it. Most of the big stars are either going to re-sign with their existing teams (Wade, Dirk, Duncan) or are RFAs so we'd have to overspend to even have a chance to get them, assuming we even want them (Gordon Hayward, Greg Monroe, Eric Bledsoe) or are guys we actively shouldn't want (Rudy, Z-Bo, Pau, ESPECIALLY Melo). Looking over the top free agents list in 2014 the only guys I can see us maybe being interested in and having a shot at signing are Luol Deng (who we'd have to massively overpay, making him likely not worth it) and Ed Davis (who we wouldn't - which means we don't need that much cap space).

      The 2015 and 2016 free agent classes are much more important to us. Many bigger names who fit holes on our team (LMA, Durant, Rondo, etc.). More time for us to get respectable to those big names. More time for us to get real assets by taking on other teams' bad contracts in exchange for prospects or picks a la Utah grabbing $20M of Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins this year in order to get two of Golden State's draft picks, which was a great trade for Utah and which GS needed to do so they could sign Iggy. These don't even have to be tank trades necessarily, because SOMEBODY has to sit at the end of the bench and wave a fucking towel when Jonas does something awesome. It's not like bench spots 12-15 are there for anything except emergencies anyway.

      2. If Masai is going to make trades, the ideal time to do so is before December 19. That way, any players we receive in trade can be sent out AGAIN before the trade deadline. I talked about Emeka Okafor as a good example of this: right now he's injured and useless to Phoenix, who have given up on tanking because they are ACTUALLY too good to tank (as opposed to us, we are at best on the knife's edge). But he's projected to be ready to play again in late January and he's $14M of expiring salary AND he's a defensive master. There will be a team who will want that combination of expiring salary and defensive big. (Probably one of the New York teams.) After we get Okafor for whatever we send to Phoenix, we ship him out again to another team looking to contend and we get EVEN MORE. But we can only do this until December 19.

      Comment


      • Jamshid wrote: View Post
        It does not take a crystal ball. It takes knowledge of the game, insight and little research. It is just like the stock market. The uneducated relies on Crystal balls and the educated, uses the tools that are available.

        This is why you see a guy like UM not falling for the fool's gold. He knows what the ceiling of this group of guys is and he is not going to sit around ( like the last guy did for 7 years) and hope for something to happen.

        Even without your crystal ball, guy like UM knows and this is why he is not going to get cut in no man's land with this group of guys and waste more years.
        Well in that case it's pretty hard to make an educated guess off 4 games and two of witch the new members have played in. Since your asking me to make guess out if this sample size I will.

        Off what I've seen at the moment this team has the best chance of winning the Atlantic division. Which would than give them home court advantage in the first round. With home court advantage I believe they could beat anyone in that 5th seed.

        In the off season we let Masai do what he does best. Draft a good player with are mid 1st round pick. I'm pretty sure there would more players willing to come to Toronto after a good playoff run.


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        @Chr1st1anL

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        • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
          Well in that case it's pretty hard to make an educated guess off 4 games and two of witch the new members have played in. Since your asking me to make guess out if this sample size I will.

          Off what I've seen at the moment this team has the best chance of winning the Atlantic division. Which would than give them home court advantage in the first round. With home court advantage I believe they could beat anyone in that 5th seed.

          In the off season we let Masai do what he does best. Draft a good player with are mid 1st round pick. I'm pretty sure there would more players willing to come to Toronto after a good playoff run.


          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
          I have to say I disagree with your entire post and really hope that MU also disagree with this. Following your recommendation, is like following in the path of BC ... Same mentality of lets try now and hope for the best.

          Looking at players we have, bunch of role players, I do not see them going pass the first round of the play offs. This means loosing on great prospects on this draft for a short and meaningless play off runs , just like BC would have done.

          As I said, I hope MU does not think like you. I guess the next few weeks will tell us more.

          Comment


          • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
            Well in that case it's pretty hard to make an educated guess off 4 games and two of witch the new members have played in. Since your asking me to make guess out if this sample size I will.

            Off what I've seen at the moment this team has the best chance of winning the Atlantic division. Which would than give them home court advantage in the first round. With home court advantage I believe they could beat anyone in that 5th seed.

            In the off season we let Masai do what he does best. Draft a good player with are mid 1st round pick. I'm pretty sure there would more players willing to come to Toronto after a good playoff run.


            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
            I have to say I disagree with your entire post and really hope that MU also disagree with this. Following your recommendation, is like following in the path of BC ... Same mentality of lets try now and hope for the best.

            Looking at players we have, bunch of role players, I do not see them going pass the first round of the play offs. This means loosing on great prospects on this draft for a short and meaningless play off runs , just like BC would have done.

            As I said, I hope MU does not think like you. I guess the next few weeks will tell us more.

            Comment


            • I don't know what Masai is going to do. I'm really interested to see what his made of. It's easy to blow up a team on a 4 game losing streak. Every body agrees with you it's the right move. When your team is on possible on 3 game win streak, leading their division and playing the best basketball of the season. That takes balls. Fans and media might turn on you. Should be interesting. I'm proud of these guys for making it hard on him. They could of easily just say "Fuck it Masai blowing it up anyways" but they didn't mail it in. Some very great character guys in that locker room.

              If anything not done by Thursday. I think that will say a lot. That Masai is giving them a chance till the deadline.



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              • Jamshid wrote: View Post
                I have to say I disagree with your entire post and really hope that MU also disagree with this. Following your recommendation, is like following in the path of BC ... Same mentality of lets try now and hope for the best.

                Looking at players we have, bunch of role players, I do not see them going pass the first round of the play offs. This means loosing on great prospects on this draft for a short and meaningless play off runs , just like BC would have done.

                As I said, I hope MU does not think like you. I guess the next few weeks will tell us more.
                You at like gutting a whole team just to get a 19 year old and "Hope" he translate to the NBA has no risk to it. You know how much pressure that is to put on a 19 year old. Knowing a whole franchise gave up on a whole season for you. What if Masai strike out on this draft how many years does that put us back? Their are risk to each scenario. Tanking is not the saver bet.


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                @Chr1st1anL

                Comment


                • Toronto Raptors on the rise
                  Fuck that ten wheel drive
                  To tank wasn't our choice to decide
                  Now it's something they know
                  They know, they know, they know

                  Comment


                  • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                    You at like gutting a whole team just to get a 19 year old and "Hope" he translate to the NBA has no risk to it. You know how much pressure that is to put on a 19 year old. Knowing a whole franchise gave up on a whole season for you. What if Masai strike out on this draft how many years does that put us back? Their are risk to each scenario. Tanking is not the saver bet.


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                    I know it alot of pressure but plenty of times it has worked out for other franchises why not the raptors in the 2014 draft
                    "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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                    • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                      In the off season we let Masai do what he does best. Draft a good player with are mid 1st round pick. I'm pretty sure there would more players willing to come to Toronto after a good playoff run.
                      Masai's draft record is Kenneth Faried, who's a good complimentary piece, and Evan Fournier, who might be. Jeff Weltman drafted Larry Sanders (15th, easily the best pick out of all of these), John Henson (looks to be a solid starting PF but not much more) and Giannis 'Po (will probably be very good but got drafted low because everybody knows he's a long term project).

                      It is very very hard to find a star player after the tenth pick now unless you're willing to take on a major project like Giannis, and even someone like Sanders is much harder than it was three years ago because three years ago nobody was using the analytical tools that made Weltman draft him, and now everybody's using them. Pretending that you're going to end up with a major star that way is basically last-ditch fantasizing, saying things like "well Rondo went in the 20s" and ignoring the fact that Rondo wasn't Rondo for years until he was and that even then he was a serious outlier.

                      Most impact players get drafted in the top 10. That's just what history teaches us, and if you want to believe otherwise, you're engaging in wishful thinking.

                      Comment


                      • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                        No, usually January.


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                        According to what? Last season in January they went 5-10. Season before that they went 6-13.


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                        • p00ka wrote: View Post
                          "As the roster stands now", "This team has.....", etc., etc., like the only other option to full tank mode is to stand pat for the next few years. Naw, MU can't make other great trades this year, or over the next few. Naw, MU can't sign FAs. Naw, MU can't make good draft picks. Yup, unless a full-blown tank this year, we're stuck with this team as is, forever.

                          And people say what I say is nonsense/bullsh!t? Tunnel vision is bad for the health.
                          peanutwoozle wrote: View Post
                          The way I see it, if we do make the playoffs this year with the current group, we have a better chance of being able to improve the team as we are no longer capped out.

                          Matt52 wrote: View Post
                          That is a very good point.

                          *Get ready, possible negativity about to enter this post*

                          With the cap space, what free agent is available to get them over the hump that they can sign? While there is a lot of competition to reach the top of the draft this year, there is also an equal amount of competition this summer with salary cap space. 14 teams have enough cap space to offer $13M or more - that does not include possible team option declines.

                          When looking at the trade route, none of us are involved in GM negotiations so take this for what it is worth, what assets, outside of cap space and draft picks, do the Raptors have to improve the roster without giving up what we assume to be the current core (DD, JV, Ross, Amir)? We are getting a lesson in over valuing your own assets with Kyle Lowry.


                          Anyways, don't lose sight of my first sentence: you raise a very good point.
                          Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                          I just think Masai should give this group same about of games as the other group.


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                          There's nothing wrong with giving this group more time to see what they can do. However, there is a COST to this decision. You lose some trade flexibility. Anyone traded before Dec. 19th, can be repackaged at the trade deadline, meaning, you have separate time frames in which you can construct a possible deal. The RISK of the giving this team more games is that you may find that the ceiling for this team IS the 7th seed, and there aren't trades to be had that either get us out of this trajectory, the longer we wait, the harder it will be to make moves that move the needle in EITHER direction.

                          magoon wrote: View Post
                          Masai's draft record is Kenneth Faried, who's a good complimentary piece, and Evan Fournier, who might be. Jeff Weltman drafted Larry Sanders (15th, easily the best pick out of all of these), John Henson (looks to be a solid starting PF but not much more) and Giannis 'Po (will probably be very good but got drafted low because everybody knows he's a long term project).

                          It is very very hard to find a star player after the tenth pick now unless you're willing to take on a major project like Giannis, and even someone like Sanders is much harder than it was three years ago because three years ago nobody was using the analytical tools that made Weltman draft him, and now everybody's using them. Pretending that you're going to end up with a major star that way is basically last-ditch fantasizing, saying things like "well Rondo went in the 20s" and ignoring the fact that Rondo wasn't Rondo for years until he was and that even then he was a serious outlier.

                          Most impact players get drafted in the top 10. That's just what history teaches us, and if you want to believe otherwise, you're engaging in wishful thinking.
                          I agree with pOOKa that we shouldn't keep our blinders on, but --as a fan-- what I won't do, is lower my expectations of management, or put another way, be an enabler of mediocre front office management. My expectation for the Raptors is a Finals appearance, or a hotly contested loss in the Conference Finals (Which is pretty reasonable considering TL's position of "Championship or bust"). IF Masai was able to pull off moves this season that would make that happen then I'd be fine with it. Heck, I'm willing to lower my standards a little bit, given how long we've been a non-factor: I'm okay with a hotly contested second round series!

                          Why am I willing to lower my standards for this season?
                          1) Winning 2-3 games in the second round would match (our pathetic) playoff best (The Raps Sixers series).
                          2) Most likely we play either the Heat or Pacers, and holding our own against either one would be QUITE and accomplishment.
                          3) It's been sooo long since we've had a team that is worth a damn, wouldn't it be nice to have one again?!?!?

                          BUT I'm not satisfied with a team either a team that can just make the playoffs (aka Bucks) OR a team whose ceiling is the second round (aka Hawks) ESPECIALLY in the East, where the gap between the top 2 and the rest of the conference is so VAST. IF you can't make a series out of it with either the Pacers or the Heat, then you are a straight up PRETENDER.

                          I have a big problem with people who argue that just by being good, we have a good chance to land an impact player in FA, because you can literally say this about 3/4 of the league. Superstars don't want to join a team and thereby make them a contender. They want to join a CONTENDER and make them a legit CHAMPIONSHIP team. Even then a team like Dallas, which has everything you could conceivably need to lure free agents... one of the winningest teams in the league over the last decade, one of the leagues best players, willing to take a complimentary, or even a backseat role in order to win, and an OWNER who is willing to spend (a little more reasonably now, but still) and wants to WIN. Yet they have been passed over by BOTH Deron and Howard. Yes, the better your team is, and the better you play, increases your draw in free agency, but at the end of the day, there's always going to be several other teams doing that as well.

                          I think the real value in cap space is NOT free agency (I think pretty much every team either overpays, or loses out on the player they target, meaning free agency isn't really good for any franchises) but putting yourself in a position to absorb other teams bad contracts in CONJUNCTION with valuable assets.

                          Draft picks have a predetermined salary at a very low rate, so there is very little (if any?) risk of overpaying. Also, there is no competition. Once your number comes up, you can draft ANY of the remaining players still available. The odds of a Steve Francis debacle is pretty negligible, especially if you don't have a terrible GM.

                          Here's what I think about the raps current position

                          1) This team, as CURRENTLY constructed, doesn't have enough talent to meet my minimum requirements for playoff success (win 2 or more games in the second round, which I think is pretty safe to assume will be one of either the Heat or the Pacers)
                          2) Ujiri would make a similar assessment.
                          3) Based on his current moves, it is impossible to tell whether he is planning to tank OR make a playoff push.
                          4) THEREFORE further moves are necessary, REGARDLESS of where you stand on the tank no tank debate.

                          I'm fine with either direction so long as it meets my expectations for success this year, or puts us on the path to meet my expectations for success in future years.

                          In either case, MORE moves need to be made, and the SOONER the better, to magnify the effect of the trade. If we are going to get better, let's have the team together long enough to actually have the 3rd best record in the league, or the 3rd worst. Doing this before 19th, would allow to use pieces gained AGAIN before the trade deadline should any tinkering be necessary or any great deals come our way.

                          Lastly, while I have no problem with assembling a team that can go 6-7 games against either the Heat or the Pacers in the second round, I just don't see a scenario in which Ujiri can make that happen. As such, I see the alternatives as being either the middle of the pack, or bottom of the pack. As a fan, bottom of the pack is VASTLY preferred, even if it costs me my most dearest raptor, Mr. "you'd be an idiot NOT to want me on your team" aka "I eat advanced stats or breakfast" aka "I shave my heart into my hair" aka Amir Johnson. I am pro tank and will continue to be pro tank, until someone convinces me of a realistic way to assemble a team that can compete with the Heat or Pacers this year. If that isn't an option, I think we're better off parlaying our chances of surface sort-term success into chances for deeper long term success in future seasons.
                          Last edited by ezz_bee; Mon Dec 16, 2013, 07:11 AM.
                          "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                          "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                          "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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                          • ezz_bee wrote: View Post
                            There's nothing wrong with giving this group more time to see what they can do. However, there is a COST to this decision. You lose some trade flexibility. Anyone traded before Dec. 19th, can be repackaged at the trade deadline, meaning, you have separate time frames in which you can construct a possible deal. The RISK of the giving this team more games is that you may find that the ceiling for this team IS the 7th seed, and there aren't trades to be had that either get us out of this trajectory, the longer we wait, the harder it will be to make moves that move the needle in EITHER direction.



                            I agree with pOOKa that we shouldn't keep our blinders on, but --as a fan-- what I won't do, is lower my expectations of management, or put another way, be an enabler of mediocrity. My expectation for the Raptors is a Finals appearance, or a hotly contested loss in the Conference Finals. IF Masai was able to pull off moves this season that would make that happen then I'd be fine with it. Heck, I'm willing to lower my standards a little bit, given how long we've been a non-factor: I'm okay with a hotly contested second round series!

                            Why am I willing to lower my standards for this season?
                            1) Winning 2-3 games in the second round would match (our pathetic) playoff best (The Raps Sixers series).
                            2) Most likely we play either the Heat or Pacers, and holding our own against either one would be QUITE and accomplishment.

                            BUT I'm not satisfied with a team either a team that can just make the playoffs (aka Bucks) OR a team whose ceiling is the second round (aka Hawks) ESPECIALLY in the East, where the gap between the top 2 and the rest of the conference is so VAST.

                            I have a big problem with people who argue that just by being good, we have a good chance to land an impact player, because you can literally say this about 3/4 of the league. Superstars don't want to join a team and thereby make them a contender. They want to join a CONTENDER and make them a legit CHAMPIONSHIP team. Even then a team like Dallas, which has everything you could conceivably need to lure free agents... one of the winningest teams in the league over the last decade, one of the leagues best players, willing to take a complimentary, or even a backseat role in order to win, and an OWNER who is willing to spend (a little more reasonably now, but still) and wants to WIN. Yet they have been passed over by BOTH Deron and Howard. Yes, the better your team is, and the better you play, increases your draw in free agency, but at the end of the day, there's always going to be several other teams doing that as well.

                            I think the real value in cap space is NOT free agency (I think pretty much every team either overpays, or loses out on the player they target, meaning free agency isn't really good for any franchises) but putting yourself in a position to absorb other teams bad contracts in CONJUNCTION with valuable assets.

                            Here's what I think
                            1) This team doesn't have enough talent to meet my minimum requirements for playoff success (win 2 or more games in the second round)
                            2) I think Ujiri agrees with me.
                            3) Based on his current moves, it is impossible to tell whether he is planning to tank OR make a playoff push, FURTHER moves will make that clear.

                            I'm fine with either direction so long as it meets my expectations for success this year, or puts us on the path to meet my expectations for success in future years.

                            In either case, MORE moves need to be made, and the SOONER the better, to magnify the effect of the trade. If we are going to get better, let's the team together long enough to actually have the 3rd best record in the league, or the 3rd worst. Doing this before 19th, would allow to use pieces gained AGAIN before the trade deadline should any tinkering be necessary or any great deals come our way.

                            Lastly, while I have no problem with assembling a team that can go 6-7 games against either the Heat or the Pacers in the second round, I don't see a way for Ujiri to make that happen. As such, I see the alternatives being middle of the pack, or bottom of the pack. As a fan, bottom of the pack is VASTLY preferred, even if it costs me my most dearest raptor, Mr. "you'd be an idiot NOT to want me on your team" aka "I eat advanced stats or breakfast" aka "I shave my heart into my hair" aka Amir Johnson. I am pro tank and will continue to be poor tank, until someone convinces me of a realistic way to assemble a team that can compete with the Heat or Pacers this year. If that isn't an option, I think we're better off parlaying surface sort-term success into deeper long term success in future season.
                            Bang on Bee! THE best explanation for why the tank is necessary I have read here!


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                            • ball4life wrote: View Post
                              Bang on Bee! THE best explanation for why the tank is necessary I have read here!


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                              To be clear, Ujiri is a smarter man than I am, and has more info than I do, so it is entirely possible, that he can construct a method that is beyond my comprehension.

                              However, when the options are to put my faith in a method that hasn't been demonstrated to me, and doesn't appear, based on my current knowledge/info/analysis to be within the realm of possibilites, OR my faith in a plan that is appears to be feasible and logical, I will side with the latter. And be pleasantly surprised if have underestimated what Ujiri has made possible.
                              Last edited by ezz_bee; Mon Dec 16, 2013, 07:24 AM.
                              "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                              "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                              "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

                              Comment


                              • For all the tankers out there Syracuses Jimmy Boeheim has stated that there isn't one talent like Lebron or Tim Duncan coming in this draft. Hopefully he knows a little more than everyone here talking about getting rid of everyone for a shot at a teenager that will take 2-3 years to develop. There will be lots of value in the middle of the round. Guys like M States Payne and Gary Harris will be around at that time. Good quality players from good programs with more than one year of exp.

                                Our dream of a superstar I don't think will come unless it's Wiggins. We will be a TEAM and i do emphasize that TEAM aspect. Denver is the model we will follow, I am sure, and there isn't one superstar on that team. But 50 wins and a playoff berth almost every year is what we should be looking forward to. Not this tank strategy only to be rebuilding again in another 4-5 years when everyone leaves.

                                The trade alone puts us in a very good position to win , win now and stockpile for the future. Look at Denver that's where we will be soon enough. The BLACK HOLE trade was just the beginning of bringing in guys that are hungry, and looked over, we have a couple of pieces left, ie. Lowey and a couple of bigs to unload for late pics and we will have pieces for the draft to trade up.

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