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Jonas Valanciunas's Ceiling...?

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  • Guys, again, the Kanter deal is nowhere near JV's max deal. So "a little below Kanter" and "max or close to it" are two very, very different things.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • raptors999 wrote: View Post
      It's not that big a deal, hopefully he signs his extension but even if he doesn't the Raptors can sign a free agent when his cap hold is low then sign him as an RFA. It'll cost more but it isn't my money and after his new deal it'll be hard to find cap space especially with Demar
      Not going to be any cap space. Maybe 15M, if Ross isn't extended (and walks) and JJ walks (and I'm assuming Scola walks) which is laughable next summer.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • DanH wrote: View Post
        Guys, again, the Kanter deal is nowhere near JV's max deal. So "a little below Kanter" and "max or close to it" are two very, very different things.
        If JV extends at the Kanter Max deal great but if he enter RFA there is a chance he doesn't get his Max number from other teams. Hell probably get more than Kanter but possibly less than true Max

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        • DanH wrote: View Post
          Not going to be any cap space. Maybe 15M, if Ross isn't extended (and walks) and JJ walks (and I'm assuming Scola walks) which is laughable next summer.
          Aren't Ross and JV cap holds really low. The real cap space eater would be Demar. If Raptors decide to get a #1 scoring option Demar would be the one to be gone. Not hating on Demar just his cap hold would be the biggest.

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          • raptors999 wrote: View Post
            Aren't Ross and JV cap holds really low. The real cap space eater would be Demar. If Raptors decide to get a #1 scoring option Demar would be the one to be gone. Not hating on Demar just his cap hold would be the biggest.
            JV's is 11M. Ross' is 8M. DeMar's is 14.3M (unless he's an all-star again, in which case it is 15.2M).

            If Ross AND DD are let go, and JJ and Scola walk, then the best I can project for the Raps based on the 89M cap prediction from the NBA is 25.3M. That's enough (barely) for a max offer to a mid-career FA (not RFA, not 10+ years) like DeMar or Durant, etc.

            It's not going to be just 1 guy let go. It will be a couple to several. And if JV or Ross get extended this summer then we're back to too little cap room to play with the big boys (read: most of the league). If both get extended we're looking at more like 15M in cap room, if DeMar walks.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • Sky High

              If we're talking stats then if he was receiving DeMar DeRozan type of opportunities you could mark him down right now for 24 & 12 (that's giving him DeMar's attempts per game multiplied by Jonas' FG% for PPG and extrapolating the rebounds to 12 by way of bumping his MPG up to 35 MPG).

              If we're not talking stats then best center in the East and perennial all-star; possibly NBA second team and world champion.

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              • Apollo wrote: View Post
                If we're talking stats then if he was receiving DeMar DeRozan type of opportunities you could mark him down right now for 24 & 12 (that's giving him DeMar's attempts per game multiplied by Jonas' FG% for PPG and extrapolating the rebounds to 12 by way of bumping his MPG up to 35 MPG).

                If we're not talking stats then best center in the East and perennial all-star; possibly NBA second team and world champion.
                FG% and efficiency would drop with that many shot attempts.

                Do think 20-10 is very possible although I'd expect his TS% to drop to the mid-low 50s.

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                • DanH wrote: View Post
                  JV's is 11M. Ross' is 8M. DeMar's is 14.3M (unless he's an all-star again, in which case it is 15.2M).

                  If Ross AND DD are let go, and JJ and Scola walk, then the best I can project for the Raps based on the 89M cap prediction from the NBA is 25.3M. That's enough (barely) for a max offer to a mid-career FA (not RFA, not 10+ years) like DeMar or Durant, etc.

                  It's not going to be just 1 guy let go. It will be a couple to several. And if JV or Ross get extended this summer then we're back to too little cap room to play with the big boys (read: most of the league). If both get extended we're looking at more like 15M in cap room, if DeMar walks.
                  Basically if JV and Ross get extended more than likely Demar is resigned too since they wont have enough space to get a starter caliber player but if they roll the dice with both as RFA they can go after a tier 1 player to replace him

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                  • JWash wrote: View Post
                    FG% and efficiency would drop with that many shot attempts.

                    Do think 20-10 is very possible although I'd expect his TS% to drop to the mid-low 50s.
                    dont care about raw scoring stats. if Raptors played inside out everybodies scoring eff% would rise. no more off the dribble threes and guards crashing into 4 defenders trying to draw fouls

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                    • JWash wrote: View Post
                      FG% and efficiency would drop with that many shot attempts.
                      Do you have something to back up that statement?

                      We're talking they make a better effort to get him the ball and also play him the minutes he deserves. It's not as high a shot increase as you're thinking.

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                      • Apollo wrote: View Post
                        Do you have something to back up that statement?
                        How about the history of the entire nba? Its not as simple as double the shots, double the points. If you think JV as currently constructed is ready to go from a 4th option mozgov/kanter to insta-marc gasol, I have a bridge in brooklyn I'd like to sell you
                        9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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                        • Apollo wrote: View Post
                          Do you have something to back up that statement?

                          We're talking they make a better effort to get him the ball and also play him the minutes he deserves. It's not as high a shot increase as you're thinking.
                          Reality...? There's no way Val would be as efficient if he almost doubled his field goal attempts.

                          Not saying he couldn't still be efficient, but he'd definitely see a dip there.

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                          • KeonClark wrote: View Post
                            How about the history of the entire nba? Its not as simple as double the shots, double the points. If you think JV as currently constructed is ready to go from a 4th option mozgov/kanter to insta-marc gasol, I have a bridge in brooklyn I'd like to sell you
                            How about, no, you're wrong please try again?

                            JWash wrote: View Post
                            Reality...? There's no way Val would be as efficient if he almost doubled his field goal attempts.

                            Not saying he couldn't still be efficient, but he'd definitely see a dip there.
                            I can give you multiple players who's efficiency actually went up as their FG attempts increased: Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, David West, the list goes on and on. Look them up.

                            I'm talking his minutes significantly increase, the offense includes him more and of course, like most talented young players, his game continues to improve and expand; things he's good at improve and also he improves on areas of weakness.

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                            • Apollo wrote: View Post
                              Do you have something to back up that statement?
                              You may be interested in these two articles:

                              http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt...fficiency.html

                              http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2...vs-efficiency/

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                              • Apollo wrote: View Post
                                If we're talking stats then if he was receiving DeMar DeRozan type of opportunities you could mark him down right now for 24 & 12 (that's giving him DeMar's attempts per game multiplied by Jonas' FG% for PPG and extrapolating the rebounds to 12 by way of bumping his MPG up to 35 MPG).

                                If we're not talking stats then best center in the East and perennial all-star; possibly NBA second team and world champion.
                                I like the way you think.

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