Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

What the Raptors are missing? (Points Per Shot)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #61
    Matt52 wrote: View Post
    The Raptors play of late has won me over (just watch they go lay an egg now that they have me believing and have my hopes up). They are currently 0.5 games behind Atlanta for third in the east. They are tough, tenacious, well coached (I think new assistants are the biggest reason), and most importantly a well-oiled machine.

    **This has only been 12 games but lets make the assumption it is real moving forward, (if just for only this thread) and Lowry, Vasquez, and Patterson are kept moving forward.**



    So what are they missing to get truly elite?

    A primary scoring option with a high Points Per Shot.


    If you look at the standings of all teams over .500, all of the teams have a primary scoring option with a very good PPS (one exception: Portland).

    Indiana - George (1.35)
    Miami - James (1.60)
    Atlanta - Millsap (1.29)
    OKC - Durant (1.54)
    San Antonio - Parker (1.27)
    Portland* - Aldridge* (1.12)*
    LA Clippers - Griffin (1.37)
    Houston - Harden (1.49)
    Golden State - Curry (1.30)
    Phoenix - Dragic (1.4)
    Dallas - Dirk (1.32)


    *Portland is the oddball here. Their leading scorer is Aldridge at 23.3ppg on 1.12pps. However their 2nd scoring option is Lillard at 21.3ppg with a 1.33pps and 3rd option Matthews at 16.7ppg with 1.43pps.


    When looking at the Raptors, their primary scorer is DeRozan at 20.9ppg and 1.18pps. The problem is they don't have enough players taking enough shots who get a high number of points per shot:

    Lowry is getting 1.32 but on just 11.9 shots per game.
    JV is 1.23 on just 8.5 shots per game.
    Amir is 1.41 but on just 8.1 shots per game.
    Ross is 1.16 on 8.1 shots per game.
    Patterson 1.26 on 5.9 shots per game.
    Hansbrough is 1.67 but on just 3.3 shots per game.


    The above is on the whole season. Lets look at the last 13 games (i.e. since Gay was outlawed in Toronto):

    DeRozan 1.15 on 17.6 shots per game.
    Lowry is 1.38 on 12.8.
    JV is 1.36 on just 8.9.
    Amir is 1.51 but on just 9.1.
    Ross is 1.20 on 11.5.
    Patterson 1.27 on 5.9.
    Salmons is 0.98 on 6.5.
    Hansbrough is a ridiculous 1.86 but on just 2.1 shots per game.


    In my opinion, and I know I'm back to a familiar refrain, for the Raptors to truly excel DeRozan can't be the primary scoring option. They either need to redistribute some of his shots to players like Amir, Lowry, or JV or they need to get a legit primary scoring option who can get around 1.35pps.

    Ideally I'd love to see Toronto keep DeRozan and move him to the 6th man role. Against inferior competition he could excel and become near elite in his PPS. People, including DeRozan, might scoff at that but Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom, Manu, and Harden pre-Houston all sacrificed for the greater good of the team.

    The issue of course is where do Toronto get an elite primary scorer while keeping the current core of DeRozan, Lowry, Amir, Ross, JV, Patterson, and Vasquez in tact?



    **Looking forward to this degenerating in to yet another "Matt52 hater" or "DeRozan loves Toronto!" discussion but if at all possible, please try not to go that route. I actually would like to see Toronto keep DeRozan as no one can deny the recent run is not in spite of his contributions.**
    IMO Derozan can be a primary option with improved shot selection. One of the reasons the team is succeeding so much right now is because of the attention that Derozan attracts. You see almost every team throwing doubles teams at him and their best defender. This has allowed for more open shots for Lowry, Ross, Salmons, and Patterson. The teams offense is at its worst right now when Derozan holds the ball for more than 2-3 seconds without doing something and than tries to go iso late in the clock. That being said his iso off screens has been exceptional and he has been getting to the line at an alarming rate. If he could make bad iso possessions into open shots for teammates this team will be in very good shape. At 24 years old, I think it would be foolish to trade him before he has reached his potential.

    That being said I think this team needs a 2nd scoring option the most. Lowry is too streaky of a shooter to be a second option and is perfect right now focusing on facilitating. Amir can only get so many high pick and roll touches a game to be a second option. The question is now, do you hope T Ross or Big Val grow into that second option over the year or do you make a trade for a SF-PF at the trade deadline?

    Comment


    • #62
      charlesnba23 wrote: View Post
      I don't know if I agree with you guys that we need a LEGIT #1 option. What I would LOVE to see Masai do in the summer is try HARD to sign Luol Deng. This guy would bring this team to the next level. He's a proven winner, he's a team player, he's a star player. No he's not 23 years of age but he's not old neither. He does it all and I think he would fit in pretty well. Who knows, maybe those african connexions will help?

      Valanciunas/Hansbrough/Rookie
      Johnson/Patterson/Hayes
      Deng/Rookie/Novak
      DeRozan/Ross/Fields
      Lowry/Vasquez/Rookie
      Please sweet Jesus no.

      Too... much... Colangelo............ it BURNS...... IT BURRRRRNNNNSS!!!!!!!

      Comment


      • #63
        Craig wrote: View Post
        I like how focused you guys are on the term #1 option.

        On another thread, you will all have a group hug about how well the team shares the ball, and how great DD has been passing out of doubles, and finding open guys.... yay, playing proper basketball, no ego's, nobody looking for stats etc.




        Then you come here and talk about #1 options.

        Its funny to me.


        DD is a good player, he' sin a scoring position and asked to take tough shots, and, on the squad he plays for he's the best in those scenario's.

        A great deal of people seem to like him a lot. Just not here.

        I personally love the guy. He has grown into a great 2 guard in front of us and he's still just 24. He is learning from these games, and the playoffs will teach him more. I think maybe some of you should think about that.
        Sorry Craig. My bad homie.

        How about we drop the #1 option and say the guy taking the most shots on the team or the shooting 18 shots a game?

        Comment


        • #64
          Doesn't anybody want to see what this team can do, as is? We have a young core, all whom are growing as individual players and team players. JV, TRoss and DD are all getting better and improving their game. As far as I can tell, Demar has silenced his critics in most cases, but we still come back to the mid-range game. He has improved his handles, his defense and his passing, is it so hard to believe that can can improve his percentages and\or shot selection? That being said, sometimes you gotta take what the defense gives you, and what good defenses usually try to do is force you into lower percentage shots.

          Anyways, there really isn't enough cheering on this site, and it's quite sad actually.

          Personally, I do not want MU to make another move this season. I want to see what this young team can do. I want to see what these players are capable of in the roles they presently fill. My guess, they continue to improve and hey, maybe just maybe, Demar becomes a legit #1, and TRoss or JV become legit #2's. And if not, we have the offseason and draft to try and improve the team and fill those holes.

          Comment


          • #65
            JawsGT wrote: View Post
            Doesn't anybody want to see what this team can do, as is? We have a young core, all whom are growing as individual players and team players. JV, TRoss and DD are all getting better and improving their game. As far as I can tell, Demar has silenced his critics in most cases, but we still come back to the mid-range game. He has improved his handles, his defense and his passing, is it so hard to believe that can can improve his percentages and\or shot selection? That being said, sometimes you gotta take what the defense gives you, and what good defenses usually try to do is force you into lower percentage shots.

            Anyways, there really isn't enough cheering on this site, and it's quite sad actually.

            Personally, I do not want MU to make another move this season. I want to see what this young team can do. I want to see what these players are capable of in the roles they presently fill. My guess, they continue to improve and hey, maybe just maybe, Demar becomes a legit #1, and TRoss or JV become legit #2's. And if not, we have the offseason and draft to try and improve the team and fill those holes.
            I have less optimism than you on the ceiling of this team, but I'm right on board with you on wanting to just wait and see. I don't see the point of sacrificing any financial flexibility and/or picks and prospects to see if we can get past the 2nd round at this point.
            your pal,
            ebrian

            Comment


            • #66
              ebrian wrote: View Post
              I have less optimism than you on the ceiling of this team, but I'm right on board with you on wanting to just wait and see. I don't see the point of sacrificing any financial flexibility and/or picks and prospects to see if we can get past the 2nd round at this point.
              I made no mention of what I thought the team's ceiling is, but clearly, playing the way we are playing we can compete with the best of them. Does that mean we can beat the best in a best of 7? Absolutely not! Is there a way to improve this team in the next couple of months that would allow us to beat the best in a best of 7? Probably not.

              But I agree with you, there is no point of making any rash decisions now to try and make this team a contender. Those are BC type moves, no point in doing anything when things are going good. This team is improving, and normally a core has to stick for a few seasons before they actually compete for conference league finals. At least we can do is leave it for one season anyways.

              Comment


              • #67
                JawsGT wrote: View Post
                Doesn't anybody want to see what this team can do, as is? We have a young core, all whom are growing as individual players and team players. JV, TRoss and DD are all getting better and improving their game. As far as I can tell, Demar has silenced his critics in most cases, but we still come back to the mid-range game. He has improved his handles, his defense and his passing, is it so hard to believe that can can improve his percentages and\or shot selection? That being said, sometimes you gotta take what the defense gives you, and what good defenses usually try to do is force you into lower percentage shots.

                Anyways, there really isn't enough cheering on this site, and it's quite sad actually.

                Personally, I do not want MU to make another move this season. I want to see what this young team can do. I want to see what these players are capable of in the roles they presently fill. My guess, they continue to improve and hey, maybe just maybe, Demar becomes a legit #1, and TRoss or JV become legit #2's. And if not, we have the offseason and draft to try and improve the team and fill those holes.
                JawsGT wrote: View Post
                I made no mention of what I thought the team's ceiling is, but clearly, playing the way we are playing we can compete with the best of them. Does that mean we can beat the best in a best of 7? Absolutely not! Is there a way to improve this team in the next couple of months that would allow us to beat the best in a best of 7? Probably not.

                But I agree with you, there is no point of making any rash decisions now to try and make this team a contender. Those are BC type moves, no point in doing anything when things are going good. This team is improving, and normally a core has to stick for a few seasons before they actually compete for conference league finals. At least we can do is leave it for one season anyways.
                Thank you. You've wrapped just about all my feelings for where this team stands at the moment, and where too effing many fans stand. And without all the offensive shit I'd be wanting to throw out!!!

                PS. As far as fans go, the game threads are some of the funniest, or saddest depending on one's mood. I read through some of them, as it gives quite a glimpse of the mindset and level of maturity of many of the participants. There are times when it has the feel of what it must be like for a teacher with a classroom full of bipolar ADHD sufferers.

                Comment


                • #68
                  JawsGT wrote: View Post
                  I made no mention of what I thought the team's ceiling is, but clearly, playing the way we are playing we can compete with the best of them. Does that mean we can beat the best in a best of 7? Absolutely not! Is there a way to improve this team in the next couple of months that would allow us to beat the best in a best of 7? Probably not.

                  But I agree with you, there is no point of making any rash decisions now to try and make this team a contender. Those are BC type moves, no point in doing anything when things are going good. This team is improving, and normally a core has to stick for a few seasons before they actually compete for conference league finals. At least we can do is leave it for one season anyways.
                  And thankfully, this is the one direction that Masai has pretty much unequivocally stated he won't go.
                  "Stop eating your sushi."
                  "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                  "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                  - Jack Armstrong

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    For the people who say DeRozan has no impact on the result of games.

                    If he doesn't hit 8/10 shots in the first half (with 6 of them being extremely high difficulty and coming late in the shot clock), we lose to Miami by 20.

                    There is an efficiency cost when a player has to take contested shots late in the clock. Particularly when that player is not a superstar (which DeRozan obviously isn't). Idk how many times I have to say this, but if we had an ACTUAL superstar taking these shots, DeRozan (like Ross) could just focus on doing what he does best, instead of trying to create something out of nothing in the waning seconds of the shot clock.

                    I'd actually like to see a suggestion for what he should do. 3 seconds left on the shot clock, you've got LeBron on you. Miami's defense is locked in and everyone else is being defended tightly. You're obviously not going to bully your way to the rim, and he's pressuring you at the 3 point line. Do you:

                    A: Elevate and take a HIGHLY contested three point shot
                    B: Dribble drive, stepback, create space and take a less contested mid-range jumper
                    C: Try and swing the ball to a teammate, who would then have about a second to get off a contested shot.
                    D: Drive and most likely lose the ball, get hit and not get a call, or get blocked

                    Which of those has the highest chance of success? Let's see. "A" probably has a 1% chance of going in the net. The only players that I see hit those shots with any sort of remote consistency are Durant and Nowitzki, and that's because they're 7 footers. "C" seems "unselfish", but it's also foolish. Your teammate would have even less time to make a decision, and it would probably result in an even worse shot being taken by a worse player. "D" seems smart... get to the rim right? Except most of the time you're not gonna get that call, or the defense is going to react and take the ball from you... or you're just not going to have enough time to get by the defender (hell even LeBron struggled with this against the Spurs and Pacers last year in the playoffs).

                    So that leaves "B". Advanced stats will tell you that a long-2 is the least efficient shot in basketball. Yep, that's very true over the course of a game. But in this particular situation, it is actually the MOST efficient look, because it's the only way to get a shot that isn't heavily contested. Yeah it probably has like 30% chance of going in, but that's better than losing the ball, or having yourself or a teammate take an even more difficult shot with a 1% chance of going in.

                    BasketballReference.com does not tell you any of this, and it's why basketball and player evaluation are not just as simple as numbers. Yes stats are an excellent tool, and I'm a huge advocate of advanced stats, but you also need to look at them with context.

                    A note about the above situation. Non-1st options usually NEVER find themselves in that predicament. And it's really only superstar players who can be highly efficient in those scenarios. Asking a player with a #2 or #3 skillset to make the most of that situation with regularity is asking them to sacrifice their shooting efficiency. DeRozan has been doing this for the Raptors since his sophomore season.
                    Last edited by Masai Ujiri; Mon Jan 6, 2014, 01:33 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      I would also like to know if people have any idea as to why opposing teams throw double teams at DeMar?

                      I mean surely they've seen that he doesn't have a good PPS? Are they just stupid or were the Thunder, Pacers and Heat trying to tank for Wiggins?

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Masai Ujiri wrote: View Post
                        Please sweet Jesus no.

                        Too... much... Colangelo............ it BURNS...... IT BURRRRRNNNNSS!!!!!!!

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Masai Ujiri wrote: View Post
                          I would also like to know if people have any idea as to why opposing teams throw double teams at DeMar?

                          I mean surely they've seen that he doesn't have a good PPS? Are they just stupid or were the Thunder, Pacers and Heat trying to tank for Wiggins?
                          lol, yeah all those teams, and more, just need to smarten up and pay attention to PPS.

                          Not just those teams, and not just any double team. The Spurs doubled him, even with K.Leonard in his face. Same with OKC with KD, Mavs with Marion, Heat with LeBron. Seriously, we're talking about elite defenders, on elite teams, and they double him all the time. What the hell do they know? They just gotta pay attention to PPS and where DD ranks on that list.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Masai Ujiri wrote: View Post
                            He clearly doesn't like DeRozan, but he has a valid point.

                            This team is not winning anything with DeRozan as the #1 option. But if you had a legit #1 option like a KD, Love, Harden type superstar and moved DD to #2 (whether that's starting or off the bench like Manu or Jason Terry for the Mavs), then you're talking about not only being a better team but maximizing DeRozan's efficiency and impact.

                            I was actually against DD playing sixth man before, but he's shown improved playmaking ability and could potentially thrive in that role. That being said Ross could also play 6th man for the team potentially as well.

                            That being said, neither of them should be coming off the bench unless we have an elite wing scorer, period. Moving DeRozan to the bench to start Salmons or Fields right now would be borderline retarded.
                            Masai Ujiri wrote: View Post
                            I think if you had a legitimate #1 guy, you could drop DeRozan's shots down to the 14-15 range and he'd still be able to put up the same amount of points (20 or so), just more efficiently. That would give him a PPS of 1.33-1.4 and bump his TS% probably closer to 55% which is more than adequate for an efficient second option.

                            Currently he is miscast as a lead guy, when his talent level is better suited to being a Robin. That being said he has to be Batman on this team because he's the best scorer on the roster. I don't really care if anyone thinks Ross or Lowry is better at scoring because they put up higher efficiency on less volume. If the defense was trying to stop them first and foremost and they had to put up 17-18 shots a game, you'd see their TS% drop below 50.
                            Masai Ujiri wrote: View Post
                            I don't think anyone who isn't delusional thinks DeRozan is an ideal #1 option on a 50 win, playoff contender type team. He's paid 9.5M for a reason. That's actually 3rd/4th banana money in the current NBA (most contenders have 4 or 5 players making about that much money or more).

                            It's actually refreshing that with DeRozan as the 1st option we're looking like a 45 win team. That means if we got a legitimate #1 option and bumped him to #2 I think we'd really be in business.
                            Masai Ujiri wrote: View Post
                            I have been trying to get you to admit this for over a year now. Well done.

                            It's good to see that you've shifted from your mantra of trading him away for expirings to accepting this fact. Hopefully we don't have to see any more threads where you try to explain how Danny Green is better than him.
                            I think most of what you said here in these few posts is exactly what many posters who have been labeled as 'anti-DeRozan' or 'DeRozan haters' have been saying for the past season or two.

                            1. DeRozan is not a #1 option and shouldn't be forced into that role, else he suffer the same fate from unfair expectations being heaped on him as Bosh/Bargnani.

                            2. DeRozan would be a superb 6th man, similar to Ginobli in San Antonio. A lot of the common complaints about his game (ie: inefficient scoring and poor defense) would be significantly negated playing on the 2nd unit. He could still wind up being top-5 for MPG on the team, but the starting lineup would be better balanced and the 2nd unit would be substantially improved. A lot of this talk came on the heels of Gay being acquired, when a lot of posters felt Gay's game and DeRozan's game were too redundant; the assumption would be that the acquisition of a similar #1 option for the starting SF spot might lend for the SG spot to be filled by more of a 3-&-D player (ie: Ross) or a glue player (ie: healthy Fields type player to play off the ball).


                            A lot of the trade talk surrounding DeRozan in the past wasn't out of animosity towards him, but rather a combination of factors:

                            1. After being the #1/#1b scorer, could DeRozan handle being the 6th man?
                            2. Is $9.5M too expensive for a 6th man?
                            3. How exactly would this new starting SF be acquired, knowing that you have to give talent to get talent?


                            Obviously I've long been one such poster who has been in the 'trade DeRozan' camp. At times he's greatly impressed me this season and there's not doubt he's made some improvements. Unfortunately, I think a lot of the criticisms of his game are still legitimate (though admittedly his improvements have begun to address them somewhat) and the question of how to acquire this true #1 scoring option, ideally at SF, is still up in the air. The consideration of trading DeRozan was never out of hate, but rather the realization that he'd be the likely trade-chip in a scenario to acquire this new #1 scoring option SF via trade.

                            Ironically, the best way for such a player to be acquired this offseason, while maintaining the rest of the potential 6-man core (ie: Valanciunas, Johnson, DeRozan, Ross and Lowry if re-signed), might have been to target the top of the 2014 draft. Free agency is an option, but quite unlikely, at least this coming offseason. Trade is always an option, but I'm not sure how such a star player could be acquired without giving up at least one of Valanciunas/Ross/DeRozan.

                            If MU can find a way to pull it off to create that type of 6-man core, he'd be my hero!
                            Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Mon Jan 6, 2014, 01:56 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Indiana - George (1.35)
                              Miami - James (1.60)
                              Atlanta - Millsap (1.29)
                              OKC - Durant (1.54)

                              San Antonio - Parker (1.27)
                              Portland* - Aldridge* (1.12)*
                              LA Clippers - Griffin (1.37)

                              Houston - Harden (1.49)
                              Golden State - Curry (1.30)
                              Phoenix - Dragic (1.4)
                              Dallas - Dirk (1.32)
                              I do not see a lot of SGs in this list. do you?
                              why not keep Demar where he is and bring in a scoring big?

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                [QUOTE=CalgaryRapsFan;272628]I think most of what you said here in these few posts is exactly what many posters who have been labeled as 'anti-DeRozan' or 'DeRozan haters' have been saying for the past season or two.

                                1. DeRozan is not a #1 option and shouldn't be forced into that role, else he suffer the same fate from unfair expectations being heaped on him as Bosh/Bargnani.

                                2. DeRozan would be a superb 6th man, similar to Ginobli in San Antonio. A lot of the common complaints about his game (ie: inefficient scoring and poor defense) would be significantly negated playing on the 2nd unit. He could still wind up being top-5 for MPG on the team, but the starting lineup would be better balanced and the 2nd unit would be substantially improved. A lot of this talk came on the heels of Gay being acquired, when a lot of posters felt Gay's game and DeRozan's game were too redundant; the assumption would be that the acquisition of a similar #1 option for the starting SF spot might lend for the SG spot to be filled by more of a 3-&-D player (ie: Ross) or a glue player (ie: healthy Fields type player to play off the ball).


                                A lot of the trade talk surrounding DeRozan in the past wasn't out of animosity towards him, but rather a combination of factors:

                                1. After being the #1/#1b scorer, could DeRozan handle being the 6th man?
                                2. Is $9.5M too expensive for a 6th man?
                                3. How exactly would this new starting SF be acquired, knowing that you have to give talent to get talent?


                                Obviously I've long been one such poster who has been in the 'trade DeRozan' camp. At times he's greatly impressed me this season and there's not doubt he's made some improvements. Unfortunately, I think a lot of the criticisms of his game are still legitimate (though admittedly his improvements have begun to address them somewhat) and the question of how to acquire this true #1 scoring option, ideally at SF, is still up in the air. The consideration of trading DeRozan was never out of hate, but rather the realization that he'd be the likely trade-chip in a scenario to acquire this new #1 scoring option SF via trade.

                                Ironically, the best way for such a player to be acquired this offseason, while maintaining the rest of the potential 6-man core (ie: Valanciunas, Johnson, DeRozan, Ross and Lowry if re-signed), might have been to target the top of the 2014 draft. Free agency is an option, but quite unlikely, at least this coming offseason. Trade is always an option, but I'm not sure how such a star player could be acquired without giving up at least one of Valanciunas/Ross/DeRozan.

                                If MU can find a way to pull it off to create that type of 6-man core, he'd be my hero![/QUOTE]

                                I've got it covered.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X