The Raptors play of late has won me over (just watch they go lay an egg now that they have me believing and have my hopes up). They are currently 0.5 games behind Atlanta for third in the east. They are tough, tenacious, well coached (I think new assistants are the biggest reason), and most importantly a well-oiled machine.
**This has only been 12 games but lets make the assumption it is real moving forward, (if just for only this thread) and Lowry, Vasquez, and Patterson are kept moving forward.**
So what are they missing to get truly elite?
A primary scoring option with a high Points Per Shot.
If you look at the standings of all teams over .500, all of the teams have a primary scoring option with a very good PPS (one exception: Portland).
Indiana - George (1.35)
Miami - James (1.60)
Atlanta - Millsap (1.29)
OKC - Durant (1.54)
San Antonio - Parker (1.27)
Portland* - Aldridge* (1.12)*
LA Clippers - Griffin (1.37)
Houston - Harden (1.49)
Golden State - Curry (1.30)
Phoenix - Dragic (1.4)
Dallas - Dirk (1.32)
*Portland is the oddball here. Their leading scorer is Aldridge at 23.3ppg on 1.12pps. However their 2nd scoring option is Lillard at 21.3ppg with a 1.33pps and 3rd option Matthews at 16.7ppg with 1.43pps.
When looking at the Raptors, their primary scorer is DeRozan at 20.9ppg and 1.18pps. The problem is they don't have enough players taking enough shots who get a high number of points per shot:
Lowry is getting 1.32 but on just 11.9 shots per game.
JV is 1.23 on just 8.5 shots per game.
Amir is 1.41 but on just 8.1 shots per game.
Ross is 1.16 on 8.1 shots per game.
Patterson 1.26 on 5.9 shots per game.
Hansbrough is 1.67 but on just 3.3 shots per game.
The above is on the whole season. Lets look at the last 13 games (i.e. since Gay was outlawed in Toronto):
DeRozan 1.15 on 17.6 shots per game.
Lowry is 1.38 on 12.8.
JV is 1.36 on just 8.9.
Amir is 1.51 but on just 9.1.
Ross is 1.20 on 11.5.
Patterson 1.27 on 5.9.
Salmons is 0.98 on 6.5.
Hansbrough is a ridiculous 1.86 but on just 2.1 shots per game.
In my opinion, and I know I'm back to a familiar refrain, for the Raptors to truly excel DeRozan can't be the primary scoring option. They either need to redistribute some of his shots to players like Amir, Lowry, or JV or they need to get a legit primary scoring option who can get around 1.35pps.
Ideally I'd love to see Toronto keep DeRozan and move him to the 6th man role. Against inferior competition he could excel and become near elite in his PPS. People, including DeRozan, might scoff at that but Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom, Manu, and Harden pre-Houston all sacrificed for the greater good of the team.
The issue of course is where do Toronto get an elite primary scorer while keeping the current core of DeRozan, Lowry, Amir, Ross, JV, Patterson, and Vasquez in tact?
**Looking forward to this degenerating in to yet another "Matt52 hater" or "DeRozan loves Toronto!" discussion but if at all possible, please try not to go that route. I actually would like to see Toronto keep DeRozan as no one can deny the recent run is not in spite of his contributions.**
**This has only been 12 games but lets make the assumption it is real moving forward, (if just for only this thread) and Lowry, Vasquez, and Patterson are kept moving forward.**
So what are they missing to get truly elite?
A primary scoring option with a high Points Per Shot.
If you look at the standings of all teams over .500, all of the teams have a primary scoring option with a very good PPS (one exception: Portland).
Indiana - George (1.35)
Miami - James (1.60)
Atlanta - Millsap (1.29)
OKC - Durant (1.54)
San Antonio - Parker (1.27)
Portland* - Aldridge* (1.12)*
LA Clippers - Griffin (1.37)
Houston - Harden (1.49)
Golden State - Curry (1.30)
Phoenix - Dragic (1.4)
Dallas - Dirk (1.32)
*Portland is the oddball here. Their leading scorer is Aldridge at 23.3ppg on 1.12pps. However their 2nd scoring option is Lillard at 21.3ppg with a 1.33pps and 3rd option Matthews at 16.7ppg with 1.43pps.
When looking at the Raptors, their primary scorer is DeRozan at 20.9ppg and 1.18pps. The problem is they don't have enough players taking enough shots who get a high number of points per shot:
Lowry is getting 1.32 but on just 11.9 shots per game.
JV is 1.23 on just 8.5 shots per game.
Amir is 1.41 but on just 8.1 shots per game.
Ross is 1.16 on 8.1 shots per game.
Patterson 1.26 on 5.9 shots per game.
Hansbrough is 1.67 but on just 3.3 shots per game.
The above is on the whole season. Lets look at the last 13 games (i.e. since Gay was outlawed in Toronto):
DeRozan 1.15 on 17.6 shots per game.
Lowry is 1.38 on 12.8.
JV is 1.36 on just 8.9.
Amir is 1.51 but on just 9.1.
Ross is 1.20 on 11.5.
Patterson 1.27 on 5.9.
Salmons is 0.98 on 6.5.
Hansbrough is a ridiculous 1.86 but on just 2.1 shots per game.
In my opinion, and I know I'm back to a familiar refrain, for the Raptors to truly excel DeRozan can't be the primary scoring option. They either need to redistribute some of his shots to players like Amir, Lowry, or JV or they need to get a legit primary scoring option who can get around 1.35pps.
Ideally I'd love to see Toronto keep DeRozan and move him to the 6th man role. Against inferior competition he could excel and become near elite in his PPS. People, including DeRozan, might scoff at that but Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom, Manu, and Harden pre-Houston all sacrificed for the greater good of the team.
The issue of course is where do Toronto get an elite primary scorer while keeping the current core of DeRozan, Lowry, Amir, Ross, JV, Patterson, and Vasquez in tact?
**Looking forward to this degenerating in to yet another "Matt52 hater" or "DeRozan loves Toronto!" discussion but if at all possible, please try not to go that route. I actually would like to see Toronto keep DeRozan as no one can deny the recent run is not in spite of his contributions.**
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