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What the Raptors are missing? (Points Per Shot)

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  • What the Raptors are missing? (Points Per Shot)

    The Raptors play of late has won me over (just watch they go lay an egg now that they have me believing and have my hopes up). They are currently 0.5 games behind Atlanta for third in the east. They are tough, tenacious, well coached (I think new assistants are the biggest reason), and most importantly a well-oiled machine.

    **This has only been 12 games but lets make the assumption it is real moving forward, (if just for only this thread) and Lowry, Vasquez, and Patterson are kept moving forward.**



    So what are they missing to get truly elite?

    A primary scoring option with a high Points Per Shot.


    If you look at the standings of all teams over .500, all of the teams have a primary scoring option with a very good PPS (one exception: Portland).

    Indiana - George (1.35)
    Miami - James (1.60)
    Atlanta - Millsap (1.29)
    OKC - Durant (1.54)
    San Antonio - Parker (1.27)
    Portland* - Aldridge* (1.12)*
    LA Clippers - Griffin (1.37)
    Houston - Harden (1.49)
    Golden State - Curry (1.30)
    Phoenix - Dragic (1.4)
    Dallas - Dirk (1.32)


    *Portland is the oddball here. Their leading scorer is Aldridge at 23.3ppg on 1.12pps. However their 2nd scoring option is Lillard at 21.3ppg with a 1.33pps and 3rd option Matthews at 16.7ppg with 1.43pps.


    When looking at the Raptors, their primary scorer is DeRozan at 20.9ppg and 1.18pps. The problem is they don't have enough players taking enough shots who get a high number of points per shot:

    Lowry is getting 1.32 but on just 11.9 shots per game.
    JV is 1.23 on just 8.5 shots per game.
    Amir is 1.41 but on just 8.1 shots per game.
    Ross is 1.16 on 8.1 shots per game.
    Patterson 1.26 on 5.9 shots per game.
    Hansbrough is 1.67 but on just 3.3 shots per game.


    The above is on the whole season. Lets look at the last 13 games (i.e. since Gay was outlawed in Toronto):

    DeRozan 1.15 on 17.6 shots per game.
    Lowry is 1.38 on 12.8.
    JV is 1.36 on just 8.9.
    Amir is 1.51 but on just 9.1.
    Ross is 1.20 on 11.5.
    Patterson 1.27 on 5.9.
    Salmons is 0.98 on 6.5.
    Hansbrough is a ridiculous 1.86 but on just 2.1 shots per game.


    In my opinion, and I know I'm back to a familiar refrain, for the Raptors to truly excel DeRozan can't be the primary scoring option. They either need to redistribute some of his shots to players like Amir, Lowry, or JV or they need to get a legit primary scoring option who can get around 1.35pps.

    Ideally I'd love to see Toronto keep DeRozan and move him to the 6th man role. Against inferior competition he could excel and become near elite in his PPS. People, including DeRozan, might scoff at that but Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom, Manu, and Harden pre-Houston all sacrificed for the greater good of the team.

    The issue of course is where do Toronto get an elite primary scorer while keeping the current core of DeRozan, Lowry, Amir, Ross, JV, Patterson, and Vasquez in tact?



    **Looking forward to this degenerating in to yet another "Matt52 hater" or "DeRozan loves Toronto!" discussion but if at all possible, please try not to go that route. I actually would like to see Toronto keep DeRozan as no one can deny the recent run is not in spite of his contributions.**

  • #2
    Conventional wisdom states that Demar should be able to improve that stat by getting more FTA, but he's already at a respectable 6.4 FTA/game, so it does look like he's just not that efficient (shocker!). Also, everyone but Derozan improved post-trade, it looks like.

    Fuel for the Afflalo fire: He's at 1.34 on 14.5 shots/gm.



    Neat post.

    Comment


    • #3
      Personally, I REALLY like the idea of Derozan being 6th man. Not just because he would probably be more effective with the role, but it would also allow for Ross to slide over to SG in the starting lineup where he should be.
      Also I don't think our primary scorer has to be ELITE, but just a player who is efficient and can carry the offensive load if need be. Preferably he should also be able to create for others. Our offense is focused on sharing the ball, we don't need one player who will take the majority of the team's shots.
      OG is our king

      Comment


      • #4
        consmap wrote: View Post
        ...Also I don't think our primary scorer has to be ELITE, but just a player who is efficient and can carry the offensive load if need be. Preferably he should also be able to create for others....
        I think you just described an elite player.

        Comment


        • #5
          DeRozan at 6th man could work IF you had a small forward who is a true #1 scorer, which we don't.

          So for now that idea is crap.

          Comment


          • #6
            Are you suggesting we trade for Rudy Gay?
            @sweatpantsjer

            Comment


            • #7
              Just shut this thread down, Matt52 is a DeRozan hater.. I can't take it anymore.
              "Masai WILL win us a championship"
              - Tim Leiweke

              Ujiri: "One thing I can say for sure is that we will not be stuck in the middle."

              Reporter: "How can you say that?"

              Ujiri: "Because I can say that."

              Comment


              • #8
                consmap wrote: View Post
                Personally, I REALLY like the idea of Derozan being 6th man. Not just because he would probably be more effective with the role, but it would also allow for Ross to slide over to SG in the starting lineup where he should be.

                Also I don't think our primary scorer has to be ELITE, but just a player who is efficient and can carry the offensive load if need be. Preferably he should also be able to create for others. Our offense is focused on sharing the ball, we don't need one player who will take the majority of the team's shots.
                That is the definition of an elite scorer.

                And yes your primary scorer DOES have to be elite if you want to win a championship 99% of the time. The only championship team I can think of where this wasn't the case was the 03-04 Pistons team. And even that isn't a good example because Chauncey averaged 21ppg on 51-47-93 shooting in the finals, which is about as elite as it gets in terms of shooting the ball.

                Comment


                • #9
                  ceez wrote: View Post
                  Are you suggesting we trade for Rudy Gay?
                  bahhahaahaaha

                  Funny enough the Rudy Gay that is playing for Sacramento puts up 1.31 PPS (19.5 on 14.9 shots)

                  Rudy and Sacramento in general are a good example of chemistry and the intangibles. They currently have 3 efficient scorers in Rudy (1.31), Cousins (1.36), and Thomas (1.37) but are just 4-8 with Rudy in the lineup.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    KazanTheMan wrote: View Post
                    Just shut this thread down, Matt52 is a DeRozan hater.. I can't take it anymore.
                    Besides taking a swipe at me personally, would you care to add any insights in to the content of the post itself?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      KazanTheMan wrote: View Post
                      Just shut this thread down, Matt52 is a DeRozan hater.. I can't take it anymore.
                      He clearly doesn't like DeRozan, but he has a valid point.

                      This team is not winning anything with DeRozan as the #1 option. But if you had a legit #1 option like a KD, Love, Harden type superstar and moved DD to #2 (whether that's starting or off the bench like Manu or Jason Terry for the Mavs), then you're talking about not only being a better team but maximizing DeRozan's efficiency and impact.

                      I was actually against DD playing sixth man before, but he's shown improved playmaking ability and could potentially thrive in that role. That being said Ross could also play 6th man for the team potentially as well.

                      That being said, neither of them should be coming off the bench unless we have an elite wing scorer, period. Moving DeRozan to the bench to start Salmons or Fields right now would be borderline retarded.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I think if you had a legitimate #1 guy, you could drop DeRozan's shots down to the 14-15 range and he'd still be able to put up the same amount of points (20 or so), just more efficiently. That would give him a PPS of 1.33-1.4 and bump his TS% probably closer to 55% which is more than adequate for an efficient second option.

                        Currently he is miscast as a lead guy, when his talent level is better suited to being a Robin. That being said he has to be Batman on this team because he's the best scorer on the roster. I don't really care if anyone thinks Ross or Lowry is better at scoring because they put up higher efficiency on less volume. If the defense was trying to stop them first and foremost and they had to put up 17-18 shots a game, you'd see their TS% drop below 50.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Matt52 wrote: View Post
                          Besides taking a swipe at me personally, would you care to add any insights in to the content of the post itself?
                          I was joking lol.. thought it was clear. My bad.
                          "Masai WILL win us a championship"
                          - Tim Leiweke

                          Ujiri: "One thing I can say for sure is that we will not be stuck in the middle."

                          Reporter: "How can you say that?"

                          Ujiri: "Because I can say that."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Matt is not a Derozan Hater, nor does he "not like" Derozan. He just doesn't see Demar as a #1 option on a very good to elite team. I share his view, as, i think, do many people.

                            I want the Raptors to aspire to greatness. Think big. Demar Derozan is not, and IMO doesn't show signs of becoming, an elite scorer.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              KHD wrote: View Post
                              Conventional wisdom states that Demar should be able to improve that stat by getting more FTA, but he's already at a respectable 6.4 FTA/game, so it does look like he's just not that efficient (shocker!). Also, everyone but Derozan improved post-trade, it looks like.

                              Fuel for the Afflalo fire: He's at 1.34 on 14.5 shots/gm.



                              Neat post.
                              Afflalo is not a #1 option on a contending team in this league. As you can see with Orlando right now.

                              I seriously have a feeling that what he's doing right now is fool's gold, it screams Mike James to me for some reason. That being said he is better than DeRozan right now, but trading DeMar or Ross for him would be foolish.

                              Comment

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