What the Raptors are missing? (Points Per Shot)

[magoon]

I thought ceez was referring to the GS/Harrison variety Barnes.

ahhhhhhh

okay no, because if Hayward or Turner would be expensive, Barnes would be extremely expensive. No dice.

[planetmars]

Get us Thaddeous Young and I'll be happy.

Might get him for Salmons and a future pick... or the right to swap picks in a future draft. Philly wants to tank, Young wants to be traded.. and he'd be a good Wing/PF either as a starter or on the bench. His cap hit isn't too bad either, but we stop becoming players in free agency so there is a risk.

[white men can't jump]

Get us Thaddeous Young and I'll be happy.

Might get him for Salmons and a future pick... or the right to swap picks in a future draft. Philly wants to tank, Young wants to be traded.. and he'd be a good Wing/PF either as a starter or on the bench. His cap hit isn't too bad either, but we stop becoming players in free agency so there is a risk.

There are things I like about Young, but on our current team he'd have to be able to play primarily at SF. And that's not bad defensively at least. There are also minor negatives if Salmons is flipped for him, since Salmons is the only other guy after our PGs and DeMar who gets ballhandling duties and can initiate some O from the perimeter.

Not sure I like the deal enough to really want it, and not sure it's really worth a pick at this stage of team-building for the Raps.

[Bendit]

Right now the Raptors are 6th overall in defensive efficiency (behind Indiana, Chicago, OKC, Golden State and San Antonio). You'll note that four of the five teams ahead of us are serious championship contenders (and Chicago would have been if injuries hadn't gotten in the way).

However, in offensive efficiency, we're stuck in the middle of the pack at 15th. Zach Lowe's column today about Phoenix points out that contending teams are usually top-10 in both categories, and the four teams that are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (San Antonio, Miami, OKC and the Clippers) are all obviously contenders as well. (Golden State is tied for 13th but are only .3 of a point away from being 11th.)

What this means is: Toronto's playoff chances this year improve if we can get a scorer, preferably a scoring wing since our big rotation is set up nicely. Now, Masai isn't going to pull a Colangelo and over-spend to get a scorer because we're in win-now mode - we're not. We should not throw away draft picks in order to rent Evan Turner or Gordon Hayward for half a season. But some scoring punch this season could go a long way towards making us more competitive in the playoffs - and consequently making all of our players that much more valuable as trade assets.

Gary Neal is the name I keep coming back to: he's a reliable 3-and-D sixth man type (shooting .42 from 3 this year), he's unhappy on the Bucks, getting in arguments with LARRY SANDERS! (their star), and his contract isn't terrible: $3.2 million this year and next. He should not be expensive given the possibility Milwaukee might just want to get rid of him.

There are also two riskier options. The first is Eric Gordon. New Orleans wants to move him and it's going to be nearly impossible for them to do it given his awful contract - but he's $14m this year, next year, and then a player option the following year. If New Orleans is looking to shed Gordon just to create salary relief, then I would strongly consider signing him and playing him as a (very expensive) sixth man and then trading him later. If we could, for example, get Gordon for Hayes/Novak, I would probably strongly consider it.

The second, and much much riskier option, is JR Smith. We would only take Smith if New York ALSO gives us picks: it's a "make the headache go away" trade for them, and we then give Smith a little time to see if he can be a sixth man and if a change of scenery doesn't fix things or he can't stop being a horrible cancer - well, that's what the stretch provision is for. But when Smith is on he's ON, and that's something we could potentially use.

I got these cold shudders when I got down to the Gordon & Smith options. Gordon's contract and glass skeletal joints while Smith has brains made of similar material (if thats a possible metaphor). Neal though would be an interesting addition for depth but I wonder what the Bucks would want in return.

[Katman]

I think the team would benefit most from a player who has deep playoff experience. There isn't anyone on the roster I can think of that could provide experienced leadership in that regard. The playoffs are different, and Casey has experienced that with Dallas but a player's voice would be helpful. Could we get someone helpful for cheap at the deadline or off waivers or does not currently have a contract?

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Additional idea:

Mike Dunleavy. Chicago doesn't need him now and it would be nice to have one of the great Raptor-killers on OUR team for once, and he's a good defender too. More expensive than Neal, certainly (Chicago has no incentive to get rid of him on the cheap) but also definitely better. He MIGHT be worth, say, that 2017 New York second-rounder.

I read someplace yesterday (ESPN rumor section, perhaps) that Houston might have interest in Dunleavy, if Chicago is going into sell-off mode. I'm not sure if there was any legit source, or if it was just an unsubstantiated rumor of inference.

[ceez]

If chicago is going into sell mode i'd ask about Jimmy Buckets every day until they tell me to stop asking

[magoon]

If chicago is going into sell mode i'd ask about Jimmy Buckets every day until they tell me to stop asking

That would take maybe five seconds, because they're not moving Jimmy Butler. Why would they move a promising young starter who's still on a rookie contract, exactly?

[ceez]

That would take maybe five seconds, because they're not moving Jimmy Butler. Why would they move a promising young starter who's still on a rookie contract, exactly?

i didn't say they would, i just said i'd harass them until they told me to knock it off

[CalgaryRapsFan]

If chicago is going into sell mode i'd ask about Jimmy Buckets every day until they tell me to stop asking

That would take maybe five seconds, because they're not moving Jimmy Butler. Why would they move a promising young starter who's still on a rookie contract, exactly?

The article/rumor I read specifically mentioned Boozer, Hinrich, Dunleavy and Teague. With the exception of Teague, the other three are veterans with one big (Boozer), one cheap (Dunleavy) and one expiring (Hinrich) contract. For a rebuilding team, they seem like obvious trade chips to cash-in for Chicago. I think Gibson & Butler are young players they want to keep around with Rose and whatever 1st round pick(s) they add from this year's draft.

[JawsGT]

I do not like the Gordon or Smith ideas. I know little of Neal, but based on what you guys are saying about him, and the fact he is cheap and we wouldn't have to give up much then that deal would be good IMO. However, I think what this team needs more than anything is a consistent threat in the low post. Hopefully, JV will become that threat, but he might be 2-3 years away from becoming that, if at all. I have no ideas of who to acquire other than Monroe, and I'm not sold on him either as a fit for this team. Plus, Amir is a great compliment to JV so relegating him to the bench isn't ideal IMO. In any event, I do not see any reason to make such changes to our frontline atm. I'd be happy with the team as is for the remainder of the season.

And, as for the closer issue when the game slows in the playoffs, I think Lowry is a pretty good option and improving. He can get a open shot or find the open guy in those tough situations. Demar isn't bad either, but I think Lowry would be the better option, if he is still here of course.

[Uncle_Si]

I think you leave the starting unit as is for the season. See what they can do if we get into the playoffs. At that point you'll have a good idea of where this team is at. Some guys fold in the playoffs and some guys excel. I'd be cool with trading anyone other that 2Pat from the bench though. That's free game to me.

[isaacthompson]

Any deal involving JR Smith coming our way is unofficially void. It doesn't even matter about what he does on the court anymore.. the locker room influence of this dude has a much greater (and negative) impact. The chemistry would be destroyed.

I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot-pole, even with a first round pick strapped to him. The development of Ross, JV and others is much more important to me than winning this year, and I simply would not want Smith anywhere near them.

Woj just put out a column about JR, and it's not pretty. Basically saying he will never change: http://yhoo.it/1fi6Knj

Sorry to shoot down your idea magoon, but realistically I just don't see MU agreeing to something like this.

[mcHAPPY]

The Raptors play of late has won me over (just watch they go lay an egg now that they have me believing and have my hopes up). They are currently 0.5 games behind Atlanta for third in the east. They are tough, tenacious, well coached (I think new assistants are the biggest reason), and most importantly a well-oiled machine.

**This has only been 12 games but lets make the assumption it is real moving forward, (if just for only this thread) and Lowry, Vasquez, and Patterson are kept moving forward.**



So what are they missing to get truly elite?

A primary scoring option with a high Points Per Shot.


If you look at the standings of all teams over .500, all of the teams have a primary scoring option with a very good PPS (one exception: Portland).

Indiana - George (1.35)
Miami - James (1.60)
Atlanta - Millsap (1.29)
OKC - Durant (1.54)
San Antonio - Parker (1.27)
Portland* - Aldridge* (1.12)*
LA Clippers - Griffin (1.37)
Houston - Harden (1.49)
Golden State - Curry (1.30)
Phoenix - Dragic (1.4)
Dallas - Dirk (1.32)


*Portland is the oddball here. Their leading scorer is Aldridge at 23.3ppg on 1.12pps. However their 2nd scoring option is Lillard at 21.3ppg with a 1.33pps and 3rd option Matthews at 16.7ppg with 1.43pps.


When looking at the Raptors, their primary scorer is DeRozan at 20.9ppg and 1.18pps. The problem is they don't have enough players taking enough shots who get a high number of points per shot:

Lowry is getting 1.32 but on just 11.9 shots per game.
JV is 1.23 on just 8.5 shots per game.
Amir is 1.41 but on just 8.1 shots per game.
Ross is 1.16 on 8.1 shots per game.
Patterson 1.26 on 5.9 shots per game.
Hansbrough is 1.67 but on just 3.3 shots per game.


The above is on the whole season. Lets look at the last 13 games (i.e. since Gay was outlawed in Toronto):

DeRozan 1.15 on 17.6 shots per game.
Lowry is 1.38 on 12.8.
JV is 1.36 on just 8.9.
Amir is 1.51 but on just 9.1.
Ross is 1.20 on 11.5.
Patterson 1.27 on 5.9.
Salmons is 0.98 on 6.5.
Hansbrough is a ridiculous 1.86 but on just 2.1 shots per game.


In my opinion, and I know I'm back to a familiar refrain, for the Raptors to truly excel DeRozan can't be the primary scoring option. They either need to redistribute some of his shots to players like Amir, Lowry, or JV or they need to get a legit primary scoring option who can get around 1.35pps.

Ideally I'd love to see Toronto keep DeRozan and move him to the 6th man role. Against inferior competition he could excel and become near elite in his PPS. People, including DeRozan, might scoff at that but Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Lamar Odom, Manu, and Harden pre-Houston all sacrificed for the greater good of the team.

The issue of course is where do Toronto get an elite primary scorer while keeping the current core of DeRozan, Lowry, Amir, Ross, JV, Patterson, and Vasquez in tact?



**Looking forward to this degenerating in to yet another "Matt52 hater" or "DeRozan loves Toronto!" discussion but if at all possible, please try not to go that route. I actually would like to see Toronto keep DeRozan as no one can deny the recent run is not in spite of his contributions.**

UPDATE:

Problem with watching games is your opinions/biases cloud what you are "seeing" and of course your perception is your reality. A lot of people here have thumbed their nose at stats but they certainly help confirm what you are seeing. A funny thing is happening though. DeRozan is starting to put it together - at least over last 19 games. Some people are no doubt seeing it all along - and congrats to you! It is nice to look at only the bright side of things.... lol.

So lets look at the last 19 games - since January 5th when I originally put this thread together (all stats from stats.NBA.com)

eFG% - 46.3 (average SG 46.1)
TS% - 53.9 (average SG 53.7)

24.9 points on 19.2 field goal attempts
1.30 Points Per Shot


To put this in perspective that would currently move him from about 95-100th based on 13 games until January 5th from Gay trade to about 31 right now.

If he could add .09 he would move in to the top 10 at 10th.

You might think big whoop! but when you are taking 19.2 shots that is 1.73 points per game which is significant.



Anyways, I tore him a new one on 13 games he deserves credit for the last 19.

**Also should be noted he is getting 5 rebounds and 4.7 assists to just 1.7 turnovers per game. Dude is balling on paper. Looking forward to watching the game tonight with an adjusted perspective.