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  • Jonas's Development

    Ever since the Rudy trade, I've felt like Jonas is getting fewer opportunities instead of more, so I decided to see what the numbers said.

    8.7 fga/g after the Rudy trade 70/130= 53.8%, not to mention 58.7%TS
    8.2 fga/g before the trade 70/147= 47.6%

    So not a marked difference. I guess it felt that way because a couple others are getting more shot attempts
    Demar 17.7-->18.0 no change
    Lowry 11.3-->12.9 small change
    Ross 5.6-->11.1 big change
    Amir 7.4--> 9.1 small change

    Not to mention Vasquez, Patterson, and Salmons are combining for over 20 shots a game, when there's a chance that none of them is on this squad next year.

    Among rooks and sophomores Val is 14th in field goal attempts per game, but is a shot lower than Drummond, who has a less developed offensive game, and 3.5 fewer than Sullinger and 5.5 fewer than Anthony Davis.

    Going back to the 1954-55, according to bbref.com, among sophomore Cs/C-Fs/F-Cs, he'd be roughly 150th in FGA/g among those that ended up playing 1500 minutes, although his TS% would place him 70th (25th post-trade!) and his rebounding percentage 35th.

    My question is.... Are we going to end up hampering Jonas's long-term development by not giving him more opportunities to work on his game?

    If he has the highest ceiling on the team, which I believe he does, we should really be investing in his growth now, so it will pay dividends later.
    It's the Spicy Show! Time to cook.

  • #2
    I think it's a tough balance. The offense FINALLY looks good now. You have to balance that kind of confidence building success with the right level of development. I would say right now JV probably doesn't need to be taking a ton more FGs per game than that. I wouldn't mind seeing him in the 10-12 range and I think he'll get there. I suspect that it will continue to rise as the season goes on. Casey finally seems to be developing some confidence in the big guy.

    It's not a recipe for success to just throw the ball into the post over and over again with a young kid who is still developing, at least not if you are trying to be successful in the standings and the Raptors are. You can also kill someone's confidence if they struggle in that role, or develop bad habits that take years to undo. I certainly wouldn't mind if a few more of the ill-advised long twos (looking at you Salmons) ended up in JV post-ups or pick and rolls. But I don't think you sacrifice the lessons of good ball movement that are being learned right now to do so.
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    • #3
      Valid points.

      Nice homework Scraptor.

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      • #4
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        Valid points.

        Nice homework Scraptor.
        he dug deep on this one

        the whole point is to make JV a 15 - 20 pt scorer a night without any plays being run for him. then we run plays for him to get to 30 pts a night. make him earn the right for plays to be run for him.

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        • #5
          Interesting OP, not sure it's possible (without a synergy account) but can we look at touches per game? Even though he is shooting it about the same, it seems to me he is more involved in the offense, although I could be wrong. It'd be interesting to know if anyone has the ability to figure it out.

          If he's getting significantly more touches post Gay, then I wouldn't be too concerned. His FGA/game will probably increase slightly as the season goes on. Especially if he starts taking and making the mid-range jumpers we all believe he should be able to hit.

          If he's getting the same or fewer, then I would argue that we need to find more ways to get him involved. Again I don't necessarily need him to shoot it, but it can be discouraging for a player if they think they'll never get the ball on O.
          "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

          "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

          "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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          • #6
            Jonas' involvement seems to go up and down game by game. Last night, he didn't seem very involved, and perhaps rightfully so with the way Hibbert was playing. Nonetheless, I think this team needs to find ways to keep Jonas involved in the offense more consistently. We still have a perimeter dominant offense, with alot of shots coming from DD, Lowry, TRoss, Salmons, Vasquez, and even many of Patterson's good looks are mid-range and 3's. This team absolutely needs an inside scoring presence. Amir isn't the most reliable post up guy, so the burden has to be on Jonas and I really think going forward this team should give the big guy the ball a little more in the post. 8 FGA per game isn't enough IMO. Also, he has to stopping thinking and just shoot that open jumper when it's available.

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            • #7
              Since the Gay trade, JV hasn't really had easy competition at the post position. He faced Hibbert twice, Chandler twice, Noah twice, Nene/Gortat, Miami twice, and Duncan twice.

              You can use that as an excuse but I personally would like to see what his usage rate looks like when the schedule gets easier. Tonight will be a good test again, against Drummond.

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              • #8
                http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post252519

                Posted on November 28
                Top 50 sorted by Opponent FGA at rim per game

                21st-Jonas- 7.4/50.0%
                Now
                15th-8.5/47.9%
                http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingD...&sortOrder=DES

                Top 50 sorted by Rebound chances per game

                30th-Jonas- 14.1/56.3%
                Now
                24th-15.1/55.2%
                http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingR...&sortOrder=DES

                Close Touches: All touches that originate within 12 feet of the basket, excluding drives.

                Top 50 sorted by close touches per game

                36th-Jonas-3.8
                Now
                25th-5.0 close touches per game

                http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingT...&sortOrder=DES

                Comment


                • #9
                  planetmars wrote: View Post
                  Since the Gay trade, JV hasn't really had easy competition at the post position. He faced Hibbert twice, Chandler twice, Noah twice, Nene/Gortat, Miami twice, and Duncan twice.

                  You can use that as an excuse but I personally would like to see what his usage rate looks like when the schedule gets easier. Tonight will be a good test again, against Drummond.
                  I think C is the most underrated position in the game right now. There aren't as many good scoring big men like there was a decade or so ago, but game in and game out there are still many tough match ups for Jonas. He works hard and it would be nice to see him get more post up opps. That being said, he needs to take that jumper. He can hit that shot, and it will force the defense to close out. He can then put the ball on the floor and take it to the hole. A few of those will cause the defense to double, and then he can pass out to the open man. But he needs to take that shot. No faking, if he has the space just shoot it big fella!!

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                  • #10
                    I have noticed that he isn't hit as a roll man enough. One of his strengths coming into the league was his ability to play the PnR. He was good at rolling to the rim hard and catching a lob for a dunk. I don't think I've seen a PnR lob/dunk yet this season.

                    IMO we need better facilitators at our guard positions. Him and Amir will both benefit.

                    Also I'm not happy with his post development. He still does that stupid running hook. Needs to slow down, learn some should fakes, stand more on balance when backing down (right now he gets too low and pushes too hard with his right should...standing up a bit and pushing straigth back will help his passing vision and speed up his post moves so he doesnt get blocked). This is on the coaching staff....post game 101. They are there to teach him. Just my thoughts.

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                    • #11
                      *shoulder fakes

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                      • #12
                        Not to start a whole Casey debate, because there's a thread with that....

                        But I still haven't seen him effectively use his bigs AS bigs. Casey's offence still primarily finds ways to get guys open perimeter shots, or open up lanes for perimeter players to drive. Getting bigs the ball is like a tertiary concern. Mostly I don't think they try to get them involved in enough different ways.

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                        • #13
                          Remember, this is a defense first team now. Jonas is getting enough of the touches he needs for development at this point. He's been up against a lot of experienced and tough defenders lately. More touches are on the way. I'm more interested in his defensive development, which is making progress, though still has a ways to go. The other thing Jonas needs is simply time,,,,, time to mature, both mentally and physically. He needs to develop more man muscle to overcome the likes of a Hibbert, at both ends. In due time, I believe he will outshine Hibbert regularly.

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                          • #14
                            Thanks bobbybutler. I looked at touches but scrapped it because I couldn't parse the data by date. Your numbers definitely help, as the first game post trade was Dec 8th.

                            Touches get a little muddy, as Jonas is playing 4 more minutes a game, going from roughly 27 to 31 (which means on a per-minute basis his FGA have actually gone down). Also, it's my understanding that touches include rebounds, so a large percentage of Jonas's touches include his great offensive rebounding numbers.

                            Unfortunately, Jonas isn't going to improve his game without quality opportunities. I fully appreciate the delicate balance of wanting to make the playoffs vs developing the youngs, and as tortacular noted, simply dumping Val the ball isn't the only solution.

                            But he shouldn't be our fifth option. I think we have to be creative in finding ways to get him more looks. On certain nights we might let him be the focus of the second unit. Since we have a much easier schedule coming up, we could also let him be the main man in any blowout garbage time.

                            I also think it's important we exercise patience with his post game until he does have the in-game opportunities to develop. Not to mention that it's easier to get into the flow of the game when you are involved on offense. Too often I feel like Val is relegated to being a crazy person flailing his arms desperately asking for the ball when he's wide open or established down low, only to be looked off until he's lost position. I'm just impressed that he doesn't get discouraged and fights hard every single play. (Amir should get credit for setting the the tone.... Not sure Val could've had a better frontcourt mate who leads by example with tough, gritty play.)
                            It's the Spicy Show! Time to cook.

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                            • #15
                              Is it my imagination or wasn't Jonas shooting the ball more when he first started playing for the Raptors? I seem to remember him having a nice touch from 10-12 feet out, and hitting a lot of his attempts.

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