Why I think comparing this sqaud to the 2006-07 squad is a bad comparison

[CGarbs]

Hi all! I have heard this current squad compared to our last team to win the Atlantic title back in 2006-2007 and I just don't see it. In another thread I wrote about it but wanted to hear the communities thoughts on it. I have a feeling I'm not the only one who thinks the comparison is mostly superficial. Here's what I wrote:

I have heard this a lot but just don't see it. Especially in terms of two things: age and defence.

Let's start with defence. Back then we had Chris Bosh as our elite offensive option and Jose Calderon as our starting PG. Chris Bosh could score at will at times but I would say that, overall, he was a below average defender. When you have a below average defender at the rim which is the most efficient place to score from, this is not a good thing. Jose's defence has already been talked about tons and how his lack of defence constantly put the team in positions where they would have to make defensive rotations and teams can find gaps more easily that way.

Contrast then with now. Our PG is Lowry who is a very strong defender and helps our D a lot by limiting penetration. Our elite offensive option in Derozan(less dominant than Bosh was as a scorer for sure) isn't strong defensively but at least its not at the rim and it has less of an overall impact to keep him on the floor as long as we have the guys down low to hold things down.

That team back then had enough D to keep them in games(good ol' Garbo and Parker helped there) but won with their offence. Whereas, overall, our current team knows how to defend and it isn't so reliant on one or two key pieces coming up big at big moments.

Next let's talk about Age/upside. The difference makers we brought in that year were Nesterovic, Parker, and Garbo. Alongside those Jose also showed great growth and skill. The problem with those first three especially is they were already at or past their prime. You knew what Parker and Nesterovic gave you wouldn't be around too much longer. On top of that you knew that with all of these players(outside the emergence of Bargnani and Calderon) what you saw, was what you got.

Contrast that with now. TRoss is our Parker(both for shooting and defence) except with way more athleticism and upside due to his youth. Similarly Jonas has a similar impact to Rasho but again with more athleticism and upside due to youth. Even Amir(our teams version of GArbo) is younger although both are pretty much the same player in their respective years(both are dirty work players who are who they are by now). So with these comparisons, all that's left is Derozan and Lowry matching up against Bosh and Calderon and for me that's an overall wash.

The big difference and hope for that 2006 team was the emergence of our #1 pick Bargnani, He alone was our hope for internal growth. Our team now has that developmental hope for Ross AND Jonas and knows that even our "they are what they are" players are young enough and talented enough that we can move forward with this group(you know that you don't need to worry about replacing guys like DD,Lowry, and Amir as they have lots of game left in them).

Also, back then(or was it soon after?) we commited max dollars for a non-max player in Bosh which made our cap situation tougher whereas we don't have those same problems with our current team.

Anyways, this is how I see it, would love to hear how you guys view things differently!

[slaw]

I think the comparison is made because of the circumstances moreso than the specific players:

1. 2006: New saviour GM.
2013: New saviour GM.

2. 2006: Beleagured head coach in last year of deal.
2013: Beleagured head coach in last year of deal.

3. 2006: Poor start.
2013: Poor start.

4. 2006: Infusion of veterans via FA changes dynamics.
2013: Infusion of veterans via trade changes dynamics.

5. 2006: Many fans wondering if team needed to continue rebuild to land a star beside Bosh.
2013: Many fans want to tank to try and land a star.

6. 2006: Playoff team after years of futility
2013: Likely Playoff team after years of futility.

Of course the makeup of the teams is different in many ways but the comparison from a big picture perspective is apt.

[Puffer]

Interesting thought. The players were significantly different in many ways, but I can see where you can draw some parallels. I always thought Rasho's game was under rated. I think Garbo was a smarter player than Amir, taking nothing away from Amir, but Garbo always seemed to be where he was supposed to be. Parker was an elite defender, as I recall. Consistently playing against the other teams best players,

[CGarbs]

Yeah, I see all that and understand it. But I have seen people use that team as a reason for why our current team is doomed to mediocrity like that team was. My argument is that the way these two teams are constructed are quite different especially when looking at the potential to grow into a contender from these starting points. Yup, circumstances are eerily similar but when you look at the team things are quite different!

[CGarbs]

I share your views concerning Garbo Puffer. But, I will also say what Amir brings on offence is miles ahead of Garbo(if I recall his game was hitting open jumpers and driving off of pump fakes/getting garbage buckets). I think the 2006-07 was doomed for mediocrity based solely on Chris Bosh and his defensive deficiencies(much similarly how I view Carmelo). You know you can win with that kind of game, but you can never contend. Also, Calderon was never an answer for us and everyone knew it, solely based on his defence. With Derozan and Lowry I feel we have avoided both pitfalls and therefore have much more hope(some might disagree but I think Lowry can definitely be a PG on a contending team).

The player we have to be most careful with is DD. I love the guy, but if we ever give him max or close to max money we are making a huge mistake(In my mind he is like a Bosh, he can help us win but he can't be who we build around).

[p00ka]

Yeah, I don't get it either CGarbs. Well, I do I guess. I see it as grasping at anecdotal straws to promote the tank, as in we'll be on the same treadmill because blah, blah. Yet as you said, this team's make-up is entirely different. Not anything to do with player on player comparisons of current skills, but all about growth potential of young players. Take the starting 5, add 2Pat, and that's a very young base to build upon, the ceiling of which nobody can accurately predict. Will it be the core of a contender? Nobody can accurately say one way or the other, but to equate the current situation to that one, as "same old story as last time", is not well reasoned.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Hi all! I have heard this current squad compared to our last team to win the Atlantic title back in 2006-2007 and I just don't see it. In another thread I wrote about it but wanted to hear the communities thoughts on it. I have a feeling I'm not the only one who thinks the comparison is mostly superficial. Here's what I wrote:

I have heard this a lot but just don't see it. Especially in terms of two things: age and defence.

Let's start with defence. Back then we had Chris Bosh as our elite offensive option and Jose Calderon as our starting PG. Chris Bosh could score at will at times but I would say that, overall, he was a below average defender. When you have a below average defender at the rim which is the most efficient place to score from, this is not a good thing. Jose's defence has already been talked about tons and how his lack of defence constantly put the team in positions where they would have to make defensive rotations and teams can find gaps more easily that way.

Contrast then with now. Our PG is Lowry who is a very strong defender and helps our D a lot by limiting penetration. Our elite offensive option in Derozan(less dominant than Bosh was as a scorer for sure) isn't strong defensively but at least its not at the rim and it has less of an overall impact to keep him on the floor as long as we have the guys down low to hold things down.

That team back then had enough D to keep them in games(good ol' Garbo and Parker helped there) but won with their offence. Whereas, overall, our current team knows how to defend and it isn't so reliant on one or two key pieces coming up big at big moments.

Next let's talk about Age/upside. The difference makers we brought in that year were Nesterovic, Parker, and Garbo. Alongside those Jose also showed great growth and skill. The problem with those first three especially is they were already at or past their prime. You knew what Parker and Nesterovic gave you wouldn't be around too much longer. On top of that you knew that with all of these players(outside the emergence of Bargnani and Calderon) what you saw, was what you got.

Contrast that with now. TRoss is our Parker(both for shooting and defence) except with way more athleticism and upside due to his youth. Similarly Jonas has a similar impact to Rasho but again with more athleticism and upside due to youth. Even Amir(our teams version of GArbo) is younger although both are pretty much the same player in their respective years(both are dirty work players who are who they are by now). So with these comparisons, all that's left is Derozan and Lowry matching up against Bosh and Calderon and for me that's an overall wash.

The big difference and hope for that 2006 team was the emergence of our #1 pick Bargnani, He alone was our hope for internal growth. Our team now has that developmental hope for Ross AND Jonas and knows that even our "they are what they are" players are young enough and talented enough that we can move forward with this group(you know that you don't need to worry about replacing guys like DD,Lowry, and Amir as they have lots of game left in them).

Also, back then(or was it soon after?) we commited max dollars for a non-max player in Bosh which made our cap situation tougher whereas we don't have those same problems with our current team.

Anyways, this is how I see it, would love to hear how you guys view things differently!

Where is Ford in your analysis/comparison? He was the starting PG back in 06-07 and was the engine that drove that team.

Obviously things didn't work out so well for that team, primarily since none of the young players (ie: Bosh, Bargnani, Ford, Graham, Humphries) blossomed as expected. That should speak volumes about relying on a capped-out (if Lowry re-signs) young roster that is winning in a historically bad conference.

The biggest difference maker between then and now is MU. I don't expect him to fall into the same trap that BC did, when he believed that team was a title contender as constructed, after winning the division.

[p00ka]

Where is Ford in your analysis/comparison? He was the starting PG back in 06-07 and was the engine that drove that team.

Obviously things didn't work out so well for that team, primarily since none of the young players (ie: Bosh, Bargnani, Ford, Graham, Humphries) blossomed as expected. That should speak volumes about relying on a capped-out (if Lowry re-signs) young roster that is winning in a historically bad conference.

The biggest difference maker between then and now is MU. I don't expect him to fall into the same trap that BC did, when he believed that team was a title contender as constructed, after winning the division.

I don't understand this line of reasoning either. Whatever route was taken, this organization wasn't going to have a "contender" in a year, any more than it could have happened in months. Looking ahead, IF MU wishes to chase a FA this coming Summer, he could still have a chunk of room to do so BEFORE signing Lowry (such maneuvering happens), and that's even if nothing else happens that he can clear salary off the books. He sure did wonders with that albatross of Gay's contract.

Whether that happens or not, 1 year later, the organization currently only has $21M on the books to 4 players (DD,JV,Ross,Novak), so there's all kinds of cap flexibility to work with, even with signing Lowry to a reasonable contract.

[planetmars]

I don't understand this line of reasoning either. Whatever route was taken, this organization wasn't going to have a "contender" in a year, any more than it could have happened in months. Looking ahead, IF MU wishes to chase a FA this coming Summer, he could still have a chunk of room to do so BEFORE signing Lowry (such maneuvering happens), and that's even if nothing else happens that he can clear salary off the books. He sure did wonders with that albatross of Gay's contract.

Whether that happens or not, 1 year later, the organization currently only has $21M on the books to 4 players (DD,JV,Ross,Novak), so there's all kinds of cap flexibility to work with, even with signing Lowry to a reasonable contract.

With regards to signing someone else before Lowry do remember that the Raptors have to use his cap hold (which is approx $9M) to add to their cap space. Otherwise they would have to renounce him and with that his bird rights (and therefore most likely him).

I'm not the most savvy cap expert here but it looks like they will have $48M committed on the books (assuming they keep Amir, and waive Salmons, Patterson and GV). And that does not include Lowry's cap hold. With his cap hold.. we are looking at $57M... and if the salary cap is about $62M that only leaves about the $5M for a free agent which isn't really much.

Cap experts please correct my math if I am wrong

[CGarbs]

Yeah, forgot about Ford momentarily. My most lasting memory of that squad was a short lob pass from Calderon to Bosh that got picked off and so my brain goes to Calderon as the PG. Yeah, Ford was another good piece but, in my mind, was another calderon; pretty good, but not good enough as a contender. As far as capped out; Landry Fields is making 8.5 mil next year and is clearly not part of the core(or even rotation!). You can get a good solid NBAer for that money, combine that with getting rid of other movable parts and you can get a GREAT player to add to this growing team.

Of course if Lowry walks we are significantly further back as I can't see any other real possibilities to fill that important PG slot.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I don't understand this line of reasoning either. Whatever route was taken, this organization wasn't going to have a "contender" in a year, any more than it could have happened in months. Looking ahead, IF MU wishes to chase a FA this coming Summer, he could still have a chunk of room to do so BEFORE signing Lowry (such maneuvering happens), and that's even if nothing else happens that he can clear salary off the books. He sure did wonders with that albatross of Gay's contract.

Whether that happens or not, 1 year later, the organization currently only has $21M on the books to 4 players (DD,JV,Ross,Novak), so there's all kinds of cap flexibility to work with, even with signing Lowry to a reasonable contract.

2014-15
- DeRozan: $9.5
- Johnson: $7.0
- Fields: $6.25
- Hayes: $5.96
- Valanciunas: $3.68
- Novak: $3.45
- Ross: $2.79
- Salmons: $1M guaranteed ($7.0 full)
- Hansborough: $1M guaranteed ($3.33 full)
- Lowry (cap hold): $9.32
- Patterson (QO / cap hold): $7.76
- Vasquez (QO / cap hold): $5.38

TOTAL: $71.42M* (if Salmons & Hansborough are not bought-out and no cap holds are renounced)

TOTAL: $63.09M* (if Salmons & Hansborough are bought-out and no cap holds are renounced)

TOTAL: $49.95M* (if Salmons & Hansborough are bought-out and Patterson & Vasquez are renounced)

* a cap hold would also be added to the total, to account for the 1st round draft pick

[p00ka]

With regards to signing someone else before Lowry do remember that the Raptors have to use his cap hold (which is approx $9M) to add to their cap space. Otherwise they would have to renounce him and with that his bird rights (and therefore most likely him).

I'm not the most savvy cap expert here but it looks like they will have $48M committed on the books (assuming they keep Amir, and waive Salmons, Patterson and GV). And that does not include Lowry's cap hold. With his cap hold.. we are looking at $57M... and if the salary cap is about $62M that only leaves about the $5M for a free agent which isn't really much.

Cap experts please correct my math if I am wrong

Could well be the case. I'm no CBA/Cap expert, nor do I ever intend to be. My primary point wasn't for this summer anyway. The point was that this "cap problem" situation is short lived, even if nothing else happens. We've got a lot of short term contracts, and NO long term problems at all!!! Unless one thinks a non-tank means shoot for the moon this year or next. That was never the case. I believe MU said something about 2015 as the year his planning was based around. Signing Lowry to, let's say $9M, does not saddle this team's cap at all in 2015.

[slaw]

DanH had a good post somewhere concerning dealing with Lowry and Amir and still having some cap flexibility. Also, as I pointed out elsewhere, two things: MLSE is throwing a $100 million at TFC for two players, so don't discount them spending on the basketball team into lux tax territory and, two, don't assume that Derozan, Lowry, Amir, Val and Ross will all be the "core" beyond this year. All of those guys are movable, along with the first rounders Toronto has in its pocket.

Just saying that people are making a lot of assumptions about the future based on 15 games.

[MACK11]

People are making to much assumptions on how the roster will look beyond this year

[stooley]

I also want to say that we made a lot of bad moves following that year which killed a lot of possible improvements. I made a thread similar to this a while ago.