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23.7% chance to win the East, 10% to win it all

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  • 23.7% chance to win the East, 10% to win it all

    That's what the Hollinger's playoff odds give the Raps.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

    Crazy number, especially compared to the Heat's! Is the algorithm broken? Or are we that good?

  • #2
    Common sense says it's absolutely ridiculous to think that the Raptors have (basically) a 1 in 4 chance of being the last team standing in the Eastern Conference.

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    • #3
      Nilanka wrote: View Post
      Common sense says it's absolutely ridiculous to think that the Raptors have (basically) a 1 in 4 chance of being the last team standing in the Eastern Conference.
      Considering Miami and Indy are essentially splitting that other 75%, its not that crazy.
      And Miami's play hasn't been anything to write home about this year. They've lost to some pretty bad teams and their defense isn't what it used to be. Mind you that could just be them coasting.. in which case.. watch out.

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      • #4
        I don't like the usage of percentages when making predictions of this nature.

        To me, this 10% chance has nothing to do with the Raptors performance, but rather it is painting a percentage that Lebron James, Paul George, Tony Parker, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin (or Chris Paul), LaMarcus Aldridge or Stephen Curry all suffer season-ending injuries from now until the start of the playoffs. If none of these things happen, the actual odds of the Raptors winning the Championships is 0.00%.

        Edit: Oh, I see what the OP was talking about. Miami's numbers look messed up, they're lower than ours.
        Last edited by ebrian; Wed Jan 15, 2014, 10:12 AM.
        your pal,
        ebrian

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        • #5
          joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
          Considering Miami and Indy are essentially splitting that other 75%, its not that crazy.
          And Miami's play hasn't been anything to write home about this year. They've lost to some pretty bad teams and their defense isn't what it used to be. Mind you that could just be them coasting.. in which case.. watch out.
          I think the 75% is where I have a problem. It should be more like 95% that either Miami or Indy go to the finals (maybe even higher).

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          • #6
            Hollinger's rankings only use stats - performance so far, point diff, SOS to this point and remaining. The Raps are ranking high because they've had a solid point diff against a tough SOS and now have a much easier SOS lying ahead.

            What Hollinger's system doesn't account for at all is roster talent (ahem LeBron James ahem) or the fact that a championship team like the Heat paces themselves through the regular season in order to arrive at the playoffs healthy, while the Raps are maxing out their talent night in and night out.

            I give the Raps a 0% chance of making the finals. Heck, I'd give them a 5-10% chance of making it past the 2nd round.
            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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            • #7
              Nilanka wrote: View Post
              I think the 75% is where I have a problem. It should be more like 95% that either Miami or Indy go to the finals (maybe even higher).
              But you haven't even seen us play a Playoff game?! Lol
              You have however, watched us beat Indiana and OKC, and give Miami a very solid run for their money.

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              • #8
                S.R. wrote: View Post
                Hollinger's rankings only use stats - performance so far, point diff, SOS to this point and remaining. The Raps are ranking high because they've had a solid point diff against a tough SOS and now have a much easier SOS lying ahead.

                What Hollinger's system doesn't account for at all is roster talent (ahem LeBron James ahem) or the fact that a championship team like the Heat paces themselves through the regular season in order to arrive at the playoffs healthy, while the Raps are maxing out their talent night in and night out.

                I give the Raps a 0% chance of making the finals. Heck, I'd give them a 5-10% chance of making it past the 2nd round.
                Not even 0.1%? There's always a 0.1...
                It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                • #9
                  Fanchie wrote: View Post
                  That's what the Hollinger's playoff odds give the Raps.

                  http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

                  Crazy number, especially compared to the Heat's! Is the algorithm broken? Or are we that good?
                  The numbers keep going up.
                  Could this be the year we have been waiting for since 1995?

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                  • #10


                    I'm weary of these algorithms. I don't want to get carried away. F*** the championship odds. I'm happy w/ 2 rounds in the playoffs, a Tyler Ennis for pick # 20 and $36M for 4 years of Kyle Lowry. Please and thank you.

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                    • #11


                      YYYEAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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                      • #12
                        Yeah, I think that the method behind his regular season predictions seem reasonably sound, better than some others out there, but I have zero confidence in it as a playoff predictor. I don't think it's possible to predict playoff results looking strictly at this regular season's results... previous playoff performance counts for a lot, and I don't think Hollinger's predictor factors that in. That said, the odds for every team except for us and Miami seem reasonable.

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                        • #13
                          Is there a 10% chance Lebron James is hurt?
                          It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                          • #14
                            Nilanka wrote: View Post
                            Common sense says it's absolutely ridiculous to think that the Raptors have (basically) a 1 in 4 chance of being the last team standing in the Eastern Conference.
                            No big deal. Just more fodder for the 'this team is a contender' fans.

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                            • #15
                              S.R. wrote: View Post
                              Hollinger's rankings only use stats - performance so far, point diff, SOS to this point and remaining. The Raps are ranking high because they've had a solid point diff against a tough SOS and now have a much easier SOS lying ahead.

                              What Hollinger's system doesn't account for at all is roster talent (ahem LeBron James ahem) or the fact that a championship team like the Heat paces themselves through the regular season in order to arrive at the playoffs healthy, while the Raps are maxing out their talent night in and night out.

                              I give the Raps a 0% chance of making the finals. Heck, I'd give them a 5-10% chance of making it past the 2nd round.
                              The algorithm runs a simulation 100 or 1000 times and bases the results on the statistics (gleaned from this season's performance, which are based on players sitting out, not playing hard etc.)

                              So what it's saying is that there EXISTS A SCENARIO where we can win.

                              Now....what is that scenario.

                              If the raps played the Heat 1000 times, I'm sure Lebron gets injured in one of those scenarios. And, if Lebron is injured, the Heat are only half as good. What if Wade gets injured too...then they're average at best.

                              What the simulation doesn't account for is the fact that in the playoffs, Lebron will DEFINITELY play in enough games to beat us in a best of 7. So will Wade. Because that's just what happens.

                              So is there a chance? Yes, but this simulation already knows what we know....that a 10% chance to win the championship is a 10% chance that Paul George, Lebron, and Durant/parker/ginobli/duncan/alrdige/CP3 etc. sit out enough games to even the playing field

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