23.7% chance to win the East, 10% to win it all

[Puffer]

I don't know any more about algorithms than I do about making pasta, but wouldn't any odds of Heat injuries be offset by similar odds of Raptors injuries? The Raps and Heat have the same odds of key injuries - how would one team gain a 10% advantage?

I would say that the Heat have far more of their teams success invested in their top three players. The Raps have less of a drop off if DeRozan, Amir or JV or Ross come out and someone from the bench is subbed in, relatively speaking, over a seven game series. I think for the Raps Lowry is the biggest difference maker.

So Raps minus DD and JV probably have a better chance over 7 than Miami minus Wade and Bosh. At least one time out of four.

[ezz_bee]

As always, the output of a product is only as good as its input

For me this is the key statement from Hollinger. His predictions are good, but I'm fairly confident that predictions associated with the Heat and the raptors are deflated in the case of the former and inflated in the case of the latter. I imagine that by the end of the year these predictions will be more in line with what we imagine to be reasonable.

[Bendit]

Another nice podcast extolling the virtues of the Toronto Raptors (featuring Eric Koreen)...

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/1...sis-kyle-lowry

[Joey]

The algorithm runs a simulation 100 or 1000 times and bases the results on the statistics (gleaned from this season's performance, which are based on players sitting out, not playing hard etc.)

So what it's saying is that there EXISTS A SCENARIO where we can win.

Now....what is that scenario.

If the raps played the Heat 1000 times, I'm sure Lebron gets injured in one of those scenarios. And, if Lebron is injured, the Heat are only half as good. What if Wade gets injured too...then they're average at best.

What the simulation doesn't account for is the fact that in the playoffs, Lebron will DEFINITELY play in enough games to beat us in a best of 7. So will Wade. Because that's just what happens.

So is there a chance? Yes, but this simulation already knows what we know....that a 10% chance to win the championship is a 10% chance that Paul George, Lebron, and Durant/parker/ginobli/duncan/alrdige/CP3 etc. sit out enough games to even the playing field

I'm not sure where you read the bit of Hollinger making up injuries for players within the simulations, but I've not read that anywhere.

ADD From the OP Link:

Hollingers Explanation
It's once again time to unveil the Hollinger Playoff Odds.

The idea is to predict what a team's odds are of making the playoffs, winning the division, making the Finals, etc., by simulating all the remaining games in the NBA season. We have a computer at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn., that automatically plays out the rest of the season every night -- not once, but 5,000 times. And we can see from those 5,000 trials how many times a certain outcome resulted, then assign a probability from it. For example, if the Blazers make the playoffs in 2,500 of our trials, we say their odds of making the playoffs are 2,500 divided by 5,000, or 50 percent.

This tool doesn't just play out the regular season, though -- it plays out the postseason with seedings and even runs the draft lottery. As a result, we can get an idea of the probability of all sorts of outcomes; the most prominent is the team's median record from the 5,000 trials. As a reminder, this tool is completely, 100 percent automated, so my obvious, long-standing bias against your favorite team is not a factor here.

As always, the output of a product is only as good as its input, so let's explain a little about how this is derived. The computer starts with the day's Hollinger Power Rankings. Then, in each of the 5,000 times it replays the season, it makes a random adjustment up or down to allow for the possibility that a team will play better or worse than it has done thus far. (I call this the Anti-Dennis Green Postulate; i.e., maybe they aren't who we thought they were.)

Additionally, the results regress to the mean. This is more important early in the season, and what it essentially means is that even though a team might start 10-0, it's not necessarily bound to go 82-0. The effect of this will reduce sharply after the first quarter of the season or so, but in the early going of most seasons, it's necessary to prevent us from projecting 77-win seasons and the like.

Nothing about Assumed Injuries.

[S.R.]

The algorithm runs a simulation 100 or 1000 times and bases the results on the statistics (gleaned from this season's performance, which are based on players sitting out, not playing hard etc.)

So what it's saying is that there EXISTS A SCENARIO where we can win.

Now....what is that scenario.

If the raps played the Heat 1000 times, I'm sure Lebron gets injured in one of those scenarios. And, if Lebron is injured, the Heat are only half as good. What if Wade gets injured too...then they're average at best.

What the simulation doesn't account for is the fact that in the playoffs, Lebron will DEFINITELY play in enough games to beat us in a best of 7. So will Wade. Because that's just what happens.

So is there a chance? Yes, but this simulation already knows what we know....that a 10% chance to win the championship is a 10% chance that Paul George, Lebron, and Durant/parker/ginobli/duncan/alrdige/CP3 etc. sit out enough games to even the playing field

I don't know any more about algorithms than I do about making pasta, but wouldn't any odds of Heat injuries be offset by similar odds of Raptors injuries? The Raps and Heat have the same odds of key injuries - how would one team gain a 10% advantage?

[BallaBalla]

Hollinger's rankings only use stats - performance so far, point diff, SOS to this point and remaining. The Raps are ranking high because they've had a solid point diff against a tough SOS and now have a much easier SOS lying ahead.

What Hollinger's system doesn't account for at all is roster talent (ahem LeBron James ahem) or the fact that a championship team like the Heat paces themselves through the regular season in order to arrive at the playoffs healthy, while the Raps are maxing out their talent night in and night out.

I give the Raps a 0% chance of making the finals. Heck, I'd give them a 5-10% chance of making it past the 2nd round.

The algorithm runs a simulation 100 or 1000 times and bases the results on the statistics (gleaned from this season's performance, which are based on players sitting out, not playing hard etc.)

So what it's saying is that there EXISTS A SCENARIO where we can win.

Now....what is that scenario.

If the raps played the Heat 1000 times, I'm sure Lebron gets injured in one of those scenarios. And, if Lebron is injured, the Heat are only half as good. What if Wade gets injured too...then they're average at best.

What the simulation doesn't account for is the fact that in the playoffs, Lebron will DEFINITELY play in enough games to beat us in a best of 7. So will Wade. Because that's just what happens.

So is there a chance? Yes, but this simulation already knows what we know....that a 10% chance to win the championship is a 10% chance that Paul George, Lebron, and Durant/parker/ginobli/duncan/alrdige/CP3 etc. sit out enough games to even the playing field

[sleepz]

Common sense says it's absolutely ridiculous to think that the Raptors have (basically) a 1 in 4 chance of being the last team standing in the Eastern Conference.

No big deal. Just more fodder for the 'this team is a contender' fans.

[KeonClark]

Is there a 10% chance Lebron James is hurt?

[octothorp]

Yeah, I think that the method behind his regular season predictions seem reasonably sound, better than some others out there, but I have zero confidence in it as a playoff predictor. I don't think it's possible to predict playoff results looking strictly at this regular season's results... previous playoff performance counts for a lot, and I don't think Hollinger's predictor factors that in. That said, the odds for every team except for us and Miami seem reasonable.

[2KJ]

YYYEAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Balls of Steel]

I'm weary of these algorithms. I don't want to get carried away. F*** the championship odds. I'm happy w/ 2 rounds in the playoffs, a Tyler Ennis for pick # 20 and $36M for 4 years of Kyle Lowry. Please and thank you.

[psrs1]

That's what the Hollinger's playoff odds give the Raps.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Crazy number, especially compared to the Heat's! Is the algorithm broken? Or are we that good?

The numbers keep going up.
Could this be the year we have been waiting for since 1995?

[KeonClark]

Hollinger's rankings only use stats - performance so far, point diff, SOS to this point and remaining. The Raps are ranking high because they've had a solid point diff against a tough SOS and now have a much easier SOS lying ahead.

What Hollinger's system doesn't account for at all is roster talent (ahem LeBron James ahem) or the fact that a championship team like the Heat paces themselves through the regular season in order to arrive at the playoffs healthy, while the Raps are maxing out their talent night in and night out.

I give the Raps a 0% chance of making the finals. Heck, I'd give them a 5-10% chance of making it past the 2nd round.

Not even 0.1%? There's always a 0.1...

[Joey]

I think the 75% is where I have a problem. It should be more like 95% that either Miami or Indy go to the finals (maybe even higher).

But you haven't even seen us play a Playoff game?! Lol
You have however, watched us beat Indiana and OKC, and give Miami a very solid run for their money.

[S.R.]

Hollinger's rankings only use stats - performance so far, point diff, SOS to this point and remaining. The Raps are ranking high because they've had a solid point diff against a tough SOS and now have a much easier SOS lying ahead.

What Hollinger's system doesn't account for at all is roster talent (ahem LeBron James ahem) or the fact that a championship team like the Heat paces themselves through the regular season in order to arrive at the playoffs healthy, while the Raps are maxing out their talent night in and night out.

I give the Raps a 0% chance of making the finals. Heck, I'd give them a 5-10% chance of making it past the 2nd round.