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What If We Don't Retain Lowry This Summer?

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  • #16
    Big on Ennis as well.

    He might not come out this year however.

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    • #17
      Mediumcore wrote: View Post
      There are a lot of options as have been outlined by posters before me, so I would just speculate about what will happen instead.

      As has been reported, the Raptors have taken Lowry off the trade block, so going forward the only option is to sign him over the summer. As this thread is about what happens if he does not sign with us you would have to assume that not trading him means MU only has an intent to compete and not blow it up or to not look for a PG in the draft, as a rookie PG rarely steps in and is NBA ready. That leaves free agent signings and trades as the only possibilities, but since there aren't any upgrades at PG in free agency it really only leaves trades.

      There are 3 injured PG's, out there that would improve our team when healthy and are 2 are on teams that have blown it up or may do so. Rondo, Rose, and Westbrook. Rondo seems like the one that would be most attainable, as Celtics really aren't bashful about ****ing and Rondo hurts that. He's also known to create issues when he's not happy, so how long will he be happy with losing. Rose is coming off two season ending injuries, so Chicago which seems like a really cheap organization for being in a big market may decide to blow it up. They've already sent Deng on his way and anyone they draft will not have the same impact as Deng for a few years (if they do at all). Other than Rose being the home town kid, it makes sense for Chicago to trade him and blow it up. Lastly, Westbrook too has suffered a second injury, and OKC's window to win a championship is closing because of it, though not completely closed like Chicago's. How long does OKC, a small market team wait for Westbrook to get healthy, or do they do the prudent thing and sell off Westbrook and his near max contract for players that could help them make a title run?

      Those are my picks. I think Raptors are nearly in the mode to go big or go home.
      I don't see Rose or Westbrook being realistic options. I don't think either team would be willing to trade their all-star guards, despite their injuries or the immediate intentions of the franchises. Realistically, the Bulls could **** this season while Rose is still on the shelf, and have a high draft pick to pair with him next season. Unfortunately for them, Thibs and Noah are having none of it and they have rallied after the Deng trade. But it would be hard to believe that they continue to play at this level without a decent consistent scorer, given that they had to do the same thing last year with an arguably better lineup. I'm not sure if Boozer has any value, but if they moved him this season instead of amnestying him in the offseason, then that may help the **** now. Or they could try and move Noah, but he is a nice piece to keep for a partially rebuilding Bulls team that has a nice opportunity to mimic the Robinson/Duncan rebuild of the Spurs.

      As for Westbrook, I don't see him being traded at all. OKC is in a pretty good position going forward and could have a really good team for years to come if Westbrook gets and stays healthy and , of course, Durant is retained. I just don't see them giving up on him now for the chance of replacing him to contend this season. They are still a pretty dangerous team without him. And isn't he supposed to be back before the playoffs?

      Rondo is, of course, an intriguing possibility. I think we have pieces that could land us Rondo. But I am unsure how he would fit with this team. We don't have the experienced and savvy vets in KG, PP, and RA that he is used to playing with and deferring to. Would this be like the Rudy Gay situation? Plus, if we were to nab him, then we would need a serious upgrade offensively, as Rondo is unlikely to produce the same scoring punch that Lowry is currently providing. I like Rondo as a player, but I have serious reservations about acquiring him.

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      • #18
        iblastoff wrote: View Post
        i HIGHLY doubt we're gonna find a serviceable point guard that high in the draft that will act as a starter that could even remotely replicate lowrys play as of late. altogether with the horrible backup pg situation we're still in, i'm not seeing the light on this one. i mean, who do we have to mentor him? vasquez? stone?? fuck no.
        I agree with this for the most part, hence my final paragraph. Lost in all the recent rah-rah'ing and pseudo contender talk, is that we're staring a pretty big step backwards in the face if Lowry a) doesn't end up back here next season or even b) he DOES end up back here and reverts back to something closer to his first seven seasons.

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        • #19
          vino wrote: View Post
          Bold 1: history tells otherwise: Stoudamire, Iverson, Rose, Lillard... only to name a few. Yeah, these ones exploded right from the start, but in general - a good PG is good right from the get-go.
          sure. if only we had a lottery pick.

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          • #20
            I think if we don't retain Lowry, then the **** begins next year.

            Anyone we get will be a downgrade and its already doubtful whether this team can continue its success next year. If we lose Lowry and replace him with a rookie or any of the UFAs available, we are the definition of an 8th seed.
            "Bruno?
            Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
            He's terrible."

            -Superjudge, 7/23

            Hope you're wrong.

            Comment


            • #21
              Yeah those 4 guys were all top six picks and in the case of Iverson and Rose, first overall selections. Big difference between plugging in that type of prospect in your line up and getting a project around the #20 spot and asking him to do the same thing.

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              • #22
                Dr. James Naismith wrote: View Post
                Assuming we're out of the lottery and have a mid to late 1st round selection, who do people like as that possible PG that we draft? Outside of the obvious upcoming talents in this summer's draft, I really haven't paid attention to college this year.
                Tyler Ennis

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                • #23
                  This is actually a very scary situation. Considering we are making a push for a third or fourth seed this season, it would be nice to think that we could continue to improve on that and hopefully have a similar, if not better, outcome next year. But without Lowry playing like he is now we could actually be taking a step back next season without other upgrades. If he walks and there is no adequate replacement then the t@nk next season is a real possibility, which begs the question: WTF is the point of this year?

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                  • #24
                    JawsGT wrote: View Post
                    This is actually a very scary situation. Considering we are making a push for a third or fourth seed this season, it would be nice to think that we could continue to improve on that and hopefully have a similar, if not better, outcome next year. But without Lowry playing like he is now we could actually be taking a step back next season without other upgrades. If he walks and there is no adequate replacement then the t@nk next season is a real possibility, which begs the question: WTF is the point of this year?
                    I agree with the possible ****ing situation, but here's how I see it.

                    Success this year will increase the value of our players and potentially even produce a couple all stars.

                    The competition for ****ing this year is incredibly tough, and given the draft class, there's a chance that many of the freshmen don't declare.

                    There will be some franchises trying to make the leap from lottery to playoffs too quickly. I could easily see the Jazz, the Bucks or the Magic being very intrigued by Derozan if he has a good stretch in the playoffs.

                    So basically, the point of this year would be to give our young guys a taste of winning, increase the value of our assets, and to plan for ****ing when the competition is less serious.

                    Of course, all this is only valid if KL walks.
                    Last edited by stooley; Thu Jan 16, 2014, 01:29 PM.
                    "Bruno?
                    Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                    He's terrible."

                    -Superjudge, 7/23

                    Hope you're wrong.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Semaj Christon is a guy a few people here were yammering about so i watched a couple games of his and came away really impressed. He's crazy athletic and while he does have some head slapping turnovers it was more because he was trying to do too much than making poor decisions. That can be coached. He started out the season shooting pretty poorly, especially from deep, but he's really picked it up the past few games. I'm a big fan.
                      @sweatpantsjer

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                      • #26
                        I do not trust Lowry. I am happy he's playing very well right now but I don't trust him. I'm too worried that he'll show up fat next season after signing a big contract. He's 27 years old and has strung together 20-25 games of very solid basketball for the first time in about 3 years. He may be an outlier but history suggests that investing big into this type of inconsistent level of play could cripple us for several years.

                        That said, the list of unrestricted free agent point guards leaves much to be desired. There are no legitimate starters. From the draft, someone said it's untrue that rookie point guards can't step in right away, but they only gave examples of lottery picks, which we're not likely to have.

                        Making matters worse, if I'm not mistaken Vasquez contract is up too. Not that he's a viable starter, but at least he's familiar with the system. I would try to minimize the risk by offering Lowry a high pay but shortened contract. He's probably looking for 4 years, but I would try to get a 2 or 3 year deal with more money up front.
                        your pal,
                        ebrian

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          stooley wrote: View Post
                          I agree with the possible ****ing situation, but here's how I see it.

                          Success this year will increase the value of our players and potentially even produce a couple all stars.

                          The competition for ****ing this year is incredibly tough, and given the draft class, there's a chance that many of the freshmen don't declare.

                          There will be some franchises trying to make the leap from lottery to playoffs too quickly. I could easily see the Jazz, the Bucks or the Magic being very intrigued by Derozan if he has a good stretch in the playoffs.

                          So basically, the point of this year would be to give our young guys a taste of winning, increase the value of our assets, and to plan for ****ing when the competition is less serious.
                          Good points, but:

                          What's the point of giving the young guys a taste of winning now, if we are only going to blow it up in the offseason and plan to lose next year? Getting back to the playoffs after a t@nk usually takes more than one season, so winning now isn't gonna matter much if you have to go through 2 or 3 more seasons of losing.

                          Plus, nobody could have predicted that there would be so much competition to t@nk, or at least, that so many teams would be affected by injuries (CHI, ATL) or just not meet expectations (BKN, NYK, CLE, WAS, DET). Similar scenarios next season could mean as many teams are trying to **** as well, you just can't predict that.

                          I don't know, but this situation seems crazy now that I think on it a bit more. If what you are saying is accurate (the part about increasing value of our players to trade for picks, prospects, or expirings) then is it possible that MU is gunning for free agency in 2015 and/or 2016? Because, if not, then this team is likely to suck for the foreseeable future unless he can score big in FA or land a LBJ/Durant type player in the draft (2014 if we move up via trade, or 2015 via the t@nk). This assumes no Lowry and we trade DD, Amir and maybe anyone else besides JV and possibly Ross.

                          All this winning just to suck later and hopefully land a stud in the draft or FA in the next 2-3 years seems incredibly risky to me. MU makes a wrong move there anywhere and he is done for sure before his contract expires.

                          My guess is that ultimately, MU will go the Pacers route, and he will retain Lowry in the offseason.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            vino wrote: View Post
                            Bold 1: history tells otherwise: Stoudamire, Iverson, Rose, Lillard... only to name a few. Yeah, these ones exploded right from the start, but in general - a good PG is good right from the get-go.

                            Bold 2: I'd say Bledsoe is an upgrade. It's unlikely the Suns don't match, but it's a totally different discussion

                            Bold 3: Ainge wants picks and he'd want several 1st rounders for a healthy Rondo. Not happening with MU values of picks, and rightfully so!

                            Bold 4: bunch of BS. Chicago is not trading Rose.

                            Another bunch of BS. OKC is not trading Westbrook or Durant. Thinking otherwise is silly at this point. More than likely Westbrook will come back as explosive as he was.

                            As for the general topic, my two cents: if Lowry walks... this means MU did not do a good job. Period. If MU has the slightest fear of Lowry walking for nothing... he should trade him right now, even if the price is slightly below his raised value as of late. Otherwise, it is a waste of 1st rounder we paid to get him (even if it wasn't MU himself). So, he either re-signs him (hopefully to something short and reasonable), or he trades Lowry within the next month.
                            1. I would call those guys the rare case. How many more were not nba ready? the ratio is lopsided.

                            2. Bledsoe is an upgrade, but there is no reasoning I can think of as to why Phoenix wouldn't match any offer for him. And therefore I deemed him unattainable.

                            3. We can offer him picks our 2014 and New Yorks first rounder, as well as expiring contracts or some combination.

                            4. It's not as far fetched as you may think. Both Rose and Westbrook are coming of bact to back injuries. These guys are not going to be 100% when they come back. Chicago's window to win a championship with Rose has closed until they reload, so blowing it completely up makes sens. OKC have a good team even without Westbrook, so if they can bring in the necessary peices by trading him to make a run this year then it's a possibility.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              ebrian wrote: View Post
                              I do not trust Lowry. I am happy he's playing very well right now but I don't trust him. I'm too worried that he'll show up fat next season after signing a big contract. He's 27 years old and has strung together 20-25 games of very solid basketball for the first time in about 3 years. He may be an outlier but history suggests that investing big into this type of inconsistent level of play could cripple us for several years.

                              That said, the list of unrestricted free agent point guards leaves much to be desired. There are no legitimate starters. From the draft, someone said it's untrue that rookie point guards can't step in right away, but they only gave examples of lottery picks, which we're not likely to have.

                              Making matters worse, if I'm not mistaken Vasquez contract is up too. Not that he's a viable starter, but at least he's familiar with the system. I would try to minimize the risk by offering Lowry a high pay but shortened contract. He's probably looking for 4 years, but I would try to get a 2 or 3 year deal with more money up front.
                              agree 100%

                              i'm wildly impressed with what he's done this season but the whole thing gives me the heebie jeebies.
                              @sweatpantsjer

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                iblastoff wrote: View Post
                                sure. if only we had a lottery pick.
                                You've taken this right out of context. Read the whole post again, I've never advocated that we could pick a high caliber PG in this draft.

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