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Should the Raps trade out of this draft?

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  • Should the Raps trade out of this draft?

    As the Raps slowly climb their way up the standings, I find myself wondering more and more if the Raps should trade out of this draft.

    They currently have the 11th best record in the league, meaning the 19th overall pick. However, with the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the league, that's likely to fall into the 20s. This is reportedly a very deep draft, but I think there are a lot of advantages to trading this year's pick given the Raptors' financial and talent level situations.

    First off, the chances that the Raps are going to find the franchise talent that puts them over the top with such a pick are obviously slim. So although they may miss out on a solid contributor, they probably won't be passing on an all-star.

    Secondly, first round picks seem to be extremely valuable this year. With so many teams looking to stockpile assets, there's a very good chance that trading for an equivalent pick or one projected to go just outside the lottery next year would return an extra asset such as a young prospect who hasn't panned out, a second round pick, etc.. And that's significant, because I think that having two first round picks next year might represent the best way for the Raps to make a major trade for the kind of established star necessary to take the next step.

    If the Raps do end up paying Lowry then the team faces a serious financial issue going forward with new contracts for Amir, JV and Ross all looming over the next 2 years or so. And that's before you mention Patterson, who is currently playing his way into a solid contract offer that the Raps may not want to match. If you paid all of those players then you'd have a very good team that's unlikely to be a contender but would be pushed up against the cap anyway once you factor in a reasonably priced bench. Not a great situation to be in as it essentially rules out signing a star player in free agency.

    That being said, if the Raps go into next year with a resigned Lowry and two 2015 first round picks, the option to deal a 2017 pick and a team full of reasonable contracts and rookie deals, then they would make an ideal trade partner for any team looking to deal a disgruntled star. As the 'what position needs to be upgraded' thread suggests, at some point the Raps are going to have to convert their stable of good-but-not-quite-good-enough players on decent contracts into a superstar or two if they really want to become a contender. And I think that trading out of this year's draft in order to stockpile assets for a future trade might just be the best way to facilitate that.

    Thoughts?

  • #2
    My opinion at the moment is no. I think there might be a pretty good player in this draft even in the Raps range.

    I would state my position basically like this: I would not be upset to see them trade the pick on draft night if they are not happy with how things play out, and think this is totally possible/plausible as an option. However at this stage, unless they are using it as an asset to get a core piece that raises their ceiling, I see no real advantage to trading it in season.

    Don't think getting rid of the pick for a 2015 pick is necessarily a better course of action than keeping the pick and drafting a young player, who also becomes an asset. You can always trade future picks in a deal, but you still need non-draft pieces to make a trade, and I'd like to have as many of those as possible so that we still have some young core pieces in place.

    I personally think 2016 (2015/16 season or subsequent offseason) is looking like the big-time move year for the Raps. Draft another couple of pieces the next 2 drafts, adding them to Jonas and Ross (who'll be finishing their rookie deals at the end of 15/16 season). They'll still have DeMar and they could easily also have capspace to deal with, and they'll also have 2 2016 1st rounders to work with. Assets like 4 young players, a reasonably priced fringe all-star, capspace and extra picks....that sounds like a good time to make a big move.

    *Also there's been some chatter about getting a star before the 2016 all-star game, that the plan must be to have such an all-star guy in place by then to market them with the game. But it's also the perfect opportunity to showcase the city to the best players in the league even if we don't have one yet.
    Last edited by white men can't jump; Sat Jan 18th, 2014, 01:12 AM.

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    • #3
      It would have to be a game-changer. I wonder what DeRozan and a 1st rounder might get you right now.

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      • #4
        Raps aren't good enough to go all in and trade away a draft pick yet
        @sweatpantsjer

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        • #5
          white men can't jump wrote: View Post
          Don't think getting rid of the pick for a 2015 pick is necessarily a better course of action than keeping the pick and drafting a young player, who also becomes an asset. You can always trade future picks in a deal, but you still need non-draft pieces to make a trade, and I'd like to have as many of those as possible so that we still have some young core pieces in place.
          What I'm worried about though is that said young player gets nailed to the end of the bench if the team stays in win-now mode and therefore doesn't retain much trade value. To me GMs always seem to see the potential of a future pick that they can control as more valuable than a player that might not fit with what they're trying to do or might overlap at a position of strength. But then again I haven't been following the draft outside of the lottery.

          In terms of 2016 being the big year to make a move you may very well be right. It almost has to be before Ross and JV are offered extensions (because that's almost certainly gonna take them over the cap), wish I could enter Ujiri's mind and see who he's thinking of targetting. You could be right, but then even GMs never really know when a player might become available as circumstances shift, so personally I'd prefer to be in a position to pounce on any opportunity rather than plan it out in terms of a certain year or window of opportunity.

          For you last two, I'm pretty sure you read the title but not the post. GG. The question shouldn't be what can DD and a pick get this year, it's what can DD and 2 picks get next year? Because that's a package any team would have a hard time turning down if they feel they need to ship out their star.

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          • #6
            Its easy to be good in the NBA, the challenge a team has is being great.

            Every team that has been great has done so by taking a big risk . They have risked some sort of asset (wins (ie. ****), dollars (spend alot), draft picks, 'potential' (ie. young players) - and usually more than just one of those) to become great. The idea of the treadmill and/or pretenders vs contenders exist because some teams are willing/able to take risks while others aren't.

            Now I'm one to believe that in a perfect world Toronto would have a 1st round draft pick every single year, and I think this because of the economics of the NBA (player movement, value of a pick etc). However, the world is never perfect. Even if we assume the new found success of this team is the new normal, I don't think there is reason to believe its enough to be contenders. A playoff team sure, a 2nd round team possibly. But not a contender. Barring some sort of drastic and unpredictable event, they aren't getting by Miami + Indiana, let alone whoever comes out of the west.

            The ofcourse it has the challenge of maintaining this success in the future. Even if we assume this is Lowry's new normal, he could still be gone in the offseason. Should Toronto re-sign him, cap space will be limited after and it will make it difficult to make additional moves. Then it has Patterson to resign, maybe Vasquez, and whether to keep paying Salmons or not. This isn't even getting into what could happen to the 14 other teams in the east which adds a whole new dynamic.

            I really don't envy Masai right now, because he is in a spot where he has to make a hard decision, with (I would assume) one less option available to him (ie. ****). Take a big risk or don't, and in not doing so risk that he has to start over and has wasted an opportunity this year. Staying the course is unlikely to get this team anywhere. Whether you love him, like him, hate him or don't care about him, he is at this point because he has yet to make a hard decision. When you put off those hard choices, life has a way of making them for you - and those are the real 'crap shoots' because you aren't controlling them.

            To simplify a bit, if he thinks this team as constructed has a good enough 'base' to win a title he has to take a risk. Absolutely has to. Whether that risk needs to include a draft pick or not will come down to what the deal is, but I'm not sure there is any reasonable way to believe it won't. If he doesn't, then this year could easily be a waste and a lost opportunity, but there is no time like the present to get out of your sunk cost.

            There is three "most likely" outcomes facing Masai right now:

            1) Take a big risk to aim for a title (trade for a 'win now' player).
            2) Trade Lowry, and accept that a rebuild is likely coming, even if its a late start
            3) don't take a risk, let life make decisions for us, and hope one of those decisions is not being a pretender.

            I'm ok with Masai doing 1 or 2 (assuming he doesn't make a Colangelo level big risk small reward choice which I'll assume he won't), but I think doing 3 is the biggest mistake.

            Now after saying all that, assuming Masai is willing to take the risk on a 'win now' player, I think the best return would be for a perimeter player, and likely a wing. No idea who that would be right now, but thats where I would hope he is concentrating

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            • #7
              The Raps have played themselves with limited options (for now). In the off-season is where thing will take shape. I'm for keeping the 20th if Tyler Ennis is still available. I was watching the Thunder / GS game last night and I'm amazed that both Jackson and Ibaka were picked 24th in the first round. MU should continue to assess talent at the draft level.

              As for bringing in an all-star for (2016 ASG), rest assured that Lieweke will be hands on about that. An all-star SF would be nice. I can see Ross staying but not DD (my 2 cents).
              “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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              • #8
                If the deal comes up for a diamond in the rough (Greg Monroe, Kevin Love), then trade the pick in a package.
                However, if no such deal comes up, then you won't get fair market value for the pick. It makes more sense to keep the pick and take a chance at drafting a great player.

                Remember, Roy Hibbert was drafted 17th, Giannis @ 15, Kawhi Leonard @ 15, Ibaka @ 24, Hickson @ 19.

                If you trade just the pick on the market, you would get a bench player or rotation player at best. Masai is a good drafter, so I see him keeping the pick and getting someone with upside

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                • #9
                  Can they even trade their first pick? ... They weren't in last years draft therefore they have to take part in this years draft on't they?

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                  • #10
                    mike, prague wrote: View Post
                    Can they even trade their first pick? ... They weren't in last years draft therefore they have to take part in this years draft on't they?
                    They can. The rule only applies to future picks, not past picks/drafts.

                    So the Raptors can trade any future pick they want right now. But if they, for example, trade their 2014 pick today they couldn't trade their 2015 pick until after the 2014 draft. However, a minute after the 2014 draft they could trade their 2015 pick.

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                    • #11
                      Got to say we stay in. Draft is the no cost way to add talent to your team. Picking 19-23 should net us a PG that will see some minutes and should have more upside than Buycks. If there is no one on the board that can be seen to be helping, ever, then a trade out at that time for another 1st is next best option. Last option is a trade of the pick if its in the mid 20's and a rotation player( 7th or 8th) for an upgrade at a "need" postion that would be a starter or 6-7 in the rotation. I think Colangelo isn't working so the likelihood of suckering another GM with the last option is unlikely to happen.
                      Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sat Jan 18th, 2014, 01:13 PM.

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                      • #12
                        The pick is Late 1st round. If MU is planing to sign Lowry this summer and also is serious about competing, then yes, trade the pick away and get some HELP in now ...

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                        • #13
                          I'm okay with the 2015 + a prospect return, if it's a real prospect and not just something like Royce White's NBA rights. But I'd rather see them keep it until draft night at least. Who knows who falls to where we pick?

                          For a team likely to move into the luxury tax in the coming years, the reasonable salary control that you get is really valuable. The guy we draft at ~21 is going to be locked in at between 1.3-1.7 or so for the next four years plus qualifying offer. In a deep draft, if you get a guy who would normally get drafted at 11th or so, then you're saving $.5 per year just by where you draft him. If the Raptors can get three or four guys who can be solid rotation players over the next three drafts, (four 1st-rounders plus one early 2nd), that sets them up really nicely.
                          I think 2015 offseason is where the Raptors can attempt to add one more star player via free-agency. After that they'll likely be a luxury team and free agent acquisitions will be limited to exception signings. It's not a great UFA class, so I'd identify a couple RFAs that you can make good offer sheet pitches to. Ideally, you want to draft a solid rotation player this year so that by 2015 when you're in tax territory, he's already had a bit of development time and is ready for more responsibility.

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                          • #14
                            Don't flip to the back of the book:

                            Didn't Steve Nash get drafted 15th overall? Rondo went in the late teens as well if I remember correctly because at the time Colangelo was trying to trade up to get him. You never know how GM's player boards are going to pan out after workouts. Best bet is to sit tight and pull a draft day trade if the guy you want isn't there. This team is in a rebuild and so they can afford to wait on guys to develop.

                            Also, you're not going to get a lot for a pick in the mid to late teens. Most teams dealing those picks are either moving up or looking for cash, and small chips.

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                            • #15
                              No. This draft is not just about Wiggins, Parker, Randle etc. This draft is deep. One of the deepest draft in years. I think you can get a real good player mid 1st round(16-24 range).

                              Just to name a few:

                              Tyler Ennis
                              Dario Saric
                              Doug McDermott
                              TJ Warren
                              Montrezl Harrell
                              Andrew Harrison
                              Last edited by The Great One; Sat Jan 18th, 2014, 03:28 PM.
                              Mamba Mentality

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