Should the Raps trade out of this draft?

[ST1R]

I hope this is hyperbole. He will go top 5 guaranteed, if not #1 overall. Has too much athleticism not to. He is adjusting to the speed of the game and learning to play in a system. He's not the type of player to take over a game by himself at this point, but he is facing incredible defensive pressure for the first time in his life. Watching the potential in his transition game is scary.

I think his draft position will be dictated by need. A team that doesn't need Embiid will be all over him.

Its indeed hyperbole re: Wiggins going after the lottery. However, I have watched several KU games this year where he has been the third best player on his own team. Considering the amount of talent in this years draft, if Wiggins doesnt adjust to the pace of the game, he may not go top 10. At this point it appears he was over hyped coming into college, which isnt his fault at all.

[planetmars]

This is why I'm surprised so many people are against trading the pick. As you point out, trading for a star is really the most likely (and you can argue only likely) scenario in which one lands on Toronto's roster. But typically if a GM is trading a superstar type player they want legit prospects back, not late rotation guys.

Just chopped your reply a bit so the thread doesn't get out of control.

I totally get what you are saying.. and I would think about trading the first round pick for a star player.. but the problem is I don't see one available this year. If there was one I'd definitely consider it.. but without a star player available I say you just keep the pick and then use them in a flip for that star player next year (like Kevin Love perhaps) or keep and develop them as part of your core.

[Jamshid]

from what i see the raps are just as far from the top 2 in the east as the bottom 2.
anyone who thinks this season is a sign of the raps becoming an "elite" team is just insane.
Next year when most of the East teams have healthy rosters and a higher draft pick,
the raps will be back on the outside of the playoff picture looking in again.
Anyone that can't see this will be the reason we'll be stuck with dc and Lowry for years more.

By signing Lowry, we are committing to this group of guys for years to come. Now, 90% of hardcore Raptor fans here think that with internal growth of this group of guys, we will be an elite team.

We are basically committing to this team and passing on a great draft in years ...

[Lark Benson]

I totally get what you are saying.. and I would think about trading the first round pick for a star player.. but the problem is I don't see one available this year. If there was one I'd definitely consider it.. but without a star player available I say you just keep the pick and then use them in a flip for that star player next year (like Kevin Love perhaps) or keep and develop them as part of your core.

I was in the middle of writing a long reply to this when the futility of it all finally hit me and I realized it's time I take another break from message boards. You guys really frustrate me. Here's what I wrote in the OP:

Secondly, first round picks seem to be extremely valuable this year. With so many teams looking to stockpile assets, there's a very good chance that trading for an equivalent pick or one projected to go just outside the lottery next year would return an extra asset such as a young prospect who hasn't panned out, a second round pick, etc.. And that's significant, because I think that having two first round picks next year might represent the best way for the Raps to make a major trade for the kind of established star necessary to take the next step.

The entire premise of this discussion was trading out of this draft into next year's in order to position the team for next year's deadline and like 9/10 people responding to the post completely ignored that. I'm only singling you out because yours was the post I was responding to when my patience ran out so please don't take offence, but how are you supposed to have a discussion with people who ignore the entire premise of your argument in order to shoot it down?

[OldSkoolCool]

By signing Lowry, we are committing to this group of guys for years to come. Now, 90% of hardcore Raptor fans here think that with internal growth of this group of guys, we will be an elite team.

We are basically committing to this team and passing on a great draft in years ...

Welp...I'm a part of the 10%

We still need a lot of help before we will ever be an "elite" team

[Wiggins]

By signing Lowry, we are committing to this group of guys for years to come. Now, 90% of hardcore Raptor fans here think that with internal growth of this group of guys, we will be an elite team.

We are basically committing to this team and passing on a great draft in years ...

Lol ... Then 90% of hardcore raptors fans are wrong

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Lol ... Then 90% of hardcore raptors fans are wrong

Not wrong, since only time will tell which side winds up being more "right". Perhaps more optimistic in the short-term, or less inclined to sit through another rebuild/retool.

The only opinion that matters is MU's and we won't know his stance until the trade deadline, or possibly even draft night...

[planetmars]

The entire premise of this discussion was trading out of this draft into next year's in order to position the team for next year's deadline and like 9/10 people responding to the post completely ignored that. I'm only singling you out because yours was the post I was responding to when my patience ran out so please don't take offence, but how are you supposed to have a discussion with people who ignore the entire premise of your argument in order to shoot it down?

Lark.. I apologize. I should have definitely read the OP a lot more clearly. With you reiterating what you posted originally I would consider trading out of this year's draft to get a second pick in the 2015 draft, but I would probably still lean towards keeping the 2014 pick (in this scenario).

There is a bit of a risk as the pick could drop. Say the Raptors start playing mediocre ball until the rest of the year, and their pick goes from 19-20 to 13-16. A lottery pick is always better than a non-lottery pick which they might get in 2015. You could always eye a team and hope they will fall to the lottery in 2015 but its not a guarantee. Having two 2015 picks is probably more ideal in a trade than a prospect in 2014 and a pick in 2015 as the team you are trading to has the ability to select the player themselves but I think the risk outweighs the reward. If you wait until the draft when you know the Raptors draft position then I might consider it, but assuming its a pick in the early 20's.. I don't know why a team would want that in exchange for their 2015 pick. If a team is willing then sure I would do it and hope that the 2015 pick ends up decent.

Since MU/Weltman are drafting I have faith that they pick a good player in 2014 that a team might want in 2015 for their superstar anyway.

Saying all that, I think it would be easier to get another pick in 2015 without giving up the 2014 pick to do it. A guy like Salmons who pretty much has an expiring contract might be easy to move before July 1 to a team looking to shed salary. That team might be willing to give up a 2015 pick since they are not as high in demand as the 2014 picks are.

[Lark Benson]

Lark.. I apologize. I should have definitely read the OP a lot more clearly. With you reiterating what you posted originally I would consider trading out of this year's draft to get a second pick in the 2015 draft, but I would probably still lean towards keeping the 2014 pick (in this scenario).

There is a bit of a risk as the pick could drop. Say the Raptors start playing mediocre ball until the rest of the year, and their pick goes from 19-20 to 13-16. A lottery pick is always better than a non-lottery pick which they might get in 2015. You could always eye a team and hope they will fall to the lottery in 2015 but its not a guarantee. Having two 2015 picks is probably more ideal in a trade than a prospect in 2014 and a pick in 2015 as the team you are trading to has the ability to select the player themselves but I think the risk outweighs the reward. If you wait until the draft when you know the Raptors draft position then I might consider it, but assuming its a pick in the early 20's.. I don't know why a team would want that in exchange for their 2015 pick. If a team is willing then sure I would do it and hope that the 2015 pick ends up decent.

Since MU/Weltman are drafting I have faith that they pick a good player in 2014 that a team might want in 2015 for their superstar anyway.

Saying all that, I think it would be easier to get another pick in 2015 without giving up the 2014 pick to do it. A guy like Salmons who pretty much has an expiring contract might be easy to move before July 1 to a team looking to shed salary. That team might be willing to give up a 2015 pick since they are not as high in demand as the 2014 picks are.

Wow, I'm gonna be honest, I was expecting an angry counter-rant more than I expected an apology - you've restored my faith in this community single-handedly haha. That was really big of you, much appreciated

I totally agree that you don't trade the pick until you know where it lands, I think all it's gonna take for the Raps to slide back into the lottery is a significant injury or two, which somehow they've dodge against all odds this year (especially compared to the rest of the league). And if that's the case then you definitely keep it, as there will probably be a very good player that slips into that range (plus it makes it significantly easier to trade up a couple of spots and get the guy you really want).

As for why a team would want a pick in the 20s, I'd be targeting two types of teams:
1. Teams with lottery picks this year that want an extra asset to move up and grab the player they really want and are willing to sacrifice a top-10-ish protected pick next year (the kind where the protection diminishes each year) to get them.
2. Playoff teams that are looking to add young blood on the cheap that fills a need but ideally a team that could fall off at any time. Think Dallas, maybe San Antonio, maybe Memphis or Portland, maybe even Minny trying desperately to placate Love, teams like that (I haven't looked to see who has their 2015 pick available so don't take that list as definitive).

It's entirely possible that nobody would want it, I really have no idea because of course I'm not MU, but if one of those teams offered it to me I'd have a hard time turning it down. That being said, I also totally agree that if the Raps can unload some end of the bench guys for a 2015 pick then so much the better (I'm looking at you, Novak + second rounder). That way everyone wins. I just don't buy that a pick in the 20s will end up being a difference maker or even an enticing asset.

In the post I referenced that I gave up on, I was going to state that since 2000, only 6 players selected in the 18-30 range have made an all-star team. And one of them was Jamaal Magloire, which barely counts. 8 if you include Afflalo and Lowry this year. That's about a 5-8% chance depending in whether you include the Big Cat, Lowry and Afflalo (I didn't include anyone selected in that range past 2008 in those percentages since those players haven't had time enough to develop, and none of them have been all-stars). Not good odds. Sure this is a loaded draft and all-star is an arbitrary measure of the success of the pick, but you get the idea: picks in that range can be solid, but are far more often than not busts, especially if they land on win-now teams that don't have the playing time necessary to develop them, which I would suggest will be the Raps next year if they keep Lowry. Sure you can be cautious and select a guy with a defined skill set that will probably produce, but the tradeoff is limited upside and therefore limited value.

Anyway, enough rambling. Thanks again for being an awesome person.

[Wiggins]

Not wrong, since only time will tell which side winds up being more "right". Perhaps more optimistic in the short-term, or less inclined to sit through another rebuild/retool.

The only opinion that matters is MU's and we won't know his stance until the trade deadline, or possibly even draft night...

Sorry i thought "90% of hardcore raptors fans" meant himself

[golden]

A lot of rumblings about this draft class being perhaps deep, but no real superstars (including Wiggins, Parker, Randle, etc...). So basically, are we looking at a bunch of Chris Bosh's (at best) Kyle Lowry / Demar DeRozan comparables?

Here's a quote:

Deep as this draft class is, its star quotient is another question. Setting aside comparisons to LeBron James and Durant, who are beyond anyone on the horizon, no one in this class is as highly regarded as No. 1 picks Anthony Davis (2012), Kyrie Irving (2011), John Wall (2010), Blake Griffin (2009) or Derrick Rose (2008).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markheis...ent-that-good/

http://dimemag.com/2014/01/2014-nba-...ass-overrated/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7CCRbXwwkc

Of course, some NBA GMs could be sending out some early smokescreens..... Discuss.

[Letter N]

1) Find player/team
2) overhype player/team
3) wait for player/team to not live up to overhyped levels
3a) if player/team lives up to hype, hype it up even more, then repeat step 3
4) bash player/team for being underwhelming and having flaws
5) continue to periodically bash them until perceived flaws become synonymous with player/team, ignoring any and all examples to the contrary.

Now you too can be a journalist.

[Skip2MyLou]

With so much talent at the top of the draft, players who would usually be late lottery picks will now be available later in round 1. There will still be good value in picks 15 through 22. Drafting smart will be the key.
...and by smart, I don't mean Marcus

[charlesnba23]

If it means getting a new starting SF or PF, of course we should.