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  • Life after Lowry

    This probably isn't the best time to bring this up given the team's wild win over the league's hottest team so apologies all around for being a buzzkill.

    Kyle Lowry's arguably the primary reason why Raptors are a winning team this season. He's playing hearts out like Rod Tidwell from Jerry McGuire screaming "show me the money". He's putting up all-star numbers this year and staying healthy and in shape. Simply put, the dude's (his agent's, rather) going to ask for a lot and get paid pretty close to his demands.

    The general feeling in this forum seems to be that if we can retain him for 8-10m for 4 years, then we should re-sign him. That sounds ideal but we live in a world where Eric Gordon gets 14m a year. My guess is he probably demands 14m/4yrs and gets paid around 12m/4yrs. Now, that's a hefty price for just one player under the current CBA.

    Given that Lowry plays a big part in this team, how are we looking in the tragic event that he decides to leave us for a bigger contract than we're willing to offer? Sure, Tyler Ennis looks great but I'm not sure if we can grab him in the post-14th pick. Are we comfortable taking a leap of faith with GV taking the reins?

    Yesterday's game was probably my favourite of this season. This team can remain legit for years to come with this core. Too bad that Lowry's agent knows this too.

  • #2
    If he leaves, we tank. Pretty much that.
    "Bruno?
    Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
    He's terrible."

    -Superjudge, 7/23

    Hope you're wrong.

    Comment


    • #3
      stooley wrote: View Post
      If he leaves, we tank. Pretty much that.
      Too late for that.
      Mamba Mentality

      Comment


      • #4
        TRex wrote: View Post
        Too late for that.
        No my friend. If Lowry leaves, itll be in the offseason.
        "Bruno?
        Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
        He's terrible."

        -Superjudge, 7/23

        Hope you're wrong.

        Comment


        • #5
          I think that if Lowry is to choose not to resign with us, GV gets the boot to. (Although Lowry has converted me and I hope he stays)

          With drafted pg/stone/buycks as our line up at the position we won't have a very pretty year. I'm ok with that though, we save the cap space from lowry, give young players a lot of time, and improve our pick in what could very easily be a better/as good draft class as this year. With money going into FA that year as well. Offseason comes and maybe we see some of our players moved to help commit to the tank/get more picks over the next 3 years (I'm looking at you Derozan, Novak, Hansbro, Hopefully healthy Fields). A young team being put together could still be fun to watch, I would like to watch something like Ennis/Ross/CheapvetFA/2pat/JV grow together for a couple years.

          I'd like to see MU work wonders on draft night too and climb up a bit, that would make me happy.

          I think MU has done a wonderful job of putting himself with options over the next few years, even if Lowry ends up walking

          Comment


          • #6
            In the end, I think there are really only 4 options for Lowry:

            1) Trade him before the deadline
            2) Show him the money and hope he accepts
            3) Let him walk
            4) Do a sign and trade (but this only works if Lowry wants to go to a specific team that is over the cap)

            Option 1 is probably not really realistic. If the Raptors are heading towards the 4th seed / playoffs, does MU jeopardize that for the sake of getting something tangible for his best player? And he won't really get much since he is a rental.. so probably some future protected pick. If the Raptors were in 9th/10th seed then I don't see why he keeps him, but the East is so bad that this probably won't happen by the deadline.

            Option 2 requires risk. You give him too much he could have a bad contract and could put a damper on having a championship caliber team. He's had an up and down career (with injuries to boot) as well.. so can we be certain that he will live up to the contract? And my fear is if he is to be traded 1-2 years into his new deal does he get back worse contracts that are even harder to trade? But with risk there could be reward.. Lowry is one of the best PG's in the league this year (he's arguably having as good a year as any other PG). That may continue. He looks grown up and a mature Lowry is a fierce Lowry. If that is sustained giving him the money would have been a smart decision.

            Option 3 sucks because the team loses their best player; they probably slip in the standings; and they get no asset in return. Is MU happy to tank in 2015? Because that could be a reality.

            Option 4 is all up to Lowry. If Lowry wants to go to a capped out team (eg, NY) then a sign and trade can be done. But if Lowry is happy to go to a team that has the cap space, no assets need to be given back to Toronto.

            Here is what I would do.. I go into the draft and see who's available with my selection. If I can get a PG and one that I've scouted and loved (say Ennis for example) then my negotiations with Lowry become much easier. If I don't, then I work with Lowry and his agent to bring him back using the 5th year as a negotiation tactic (making it a player option to boot for added flexibility for him, as well as bonuses including a trade kicker). Just hope he would be okay with no more than $10M a year (or staggered so that it starts high and ends low). If Lowry balks, then I look at the trade market or free agency for some suitable PG that can help in the short term while the team suffers a setback in terms of wins. Then continue to look for the PG of the future and if that requires putting DD, TR or AJ on the blocks I would.

            Comment


            • #7
              I feel like there's a big drop in PG talent in this year's draft after Ennis - Semaj Christon maybe? He seems at least 2 years away from making an impactful contribution to a winning team though.

              On the other hand, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum, Zach LaVine look like they could have gone first pick in weaker drafts. Maybe we can trade up just a bit? Do you think Lakers would give up their pick for S&T Lowry if they fall out of top 5?

              Comment


              • #8
                Goode wrote: View Post
                I feel like there's a big drop in PG talent in this year's draft after Ennis - Semaj Christon maybe? He seems at least 2 years away from making an impactful contribution to a winning team though.

                On the other hand, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum, Zach LaVine look like they could have gone first pick in weaker drafts. Maybe we can trade up just a bit? Do you think Lakers would give up their pick for S&T Lowry if they fall out of top 5?
                From my understanding, the issue with that is the lakers dont need to do a S&T. They have the cap space to throw Lowry an offer in the offseason anyways. If they didn't, then yea I think that would be very possible, along with our pick probably as well. Unless of course we take nash , then they might do it
                Last edited by Bandit; Tue Jan 28th, 2014, 04:13 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Bandit wrote: View Post
                  From my understanding, the issue with that is the lakers dont need to do a S&T. They have the cap space to throw Lowry an offer in the offseason anyways. If they didn't, then yea I think that would be very possible, along with our pick probably as well
                  Raptors have Lowry's "Bird Rights" though. No matter how much cap space the Lakers have, the Raptors can offer an extra year.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    He's worth more than Bosh was.

                    right, now, intangibles included, he's the best PG in The Eastern conference.

                    He's gonna be signed, and if its for 12 - 13 million, so effin what, 1) not my money 2) you get what you pay for, and this guy is top notch.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Nilanka wrote: View Post
                      Raptors have Lowry's "Bird Rights" though. No matter how much cap space the Lakers have, the Raptors can offer an extra year.
                      Forgot about that, thanks Nilanka.

                      Yea I suppose as long as no one comes in with a ridiculous offer we have that advantage. There's lots of free money this year though, I suppose I'm worried he'll be offered more for 4 yrs than I would like to pay him for 5. Unlikely, but bad contracts happen

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I think the extra year we can give him may be a big factor. If some team throws out 4yr/48M, a 5yr/50-55M from the raps could still be very appealing to him.

                        But yeah, without him the future does look bleak. I think Vasquez gets the spot then though. And although that may be a downgrade, MU will still have options if he wants to beef up another position. It seems almost certain that we would take a step back without him so I'm fine with paying him that 5yr contract above. He really is playing some crazy ball, total package for a point guard.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          couple points...

                          1.) Lakers would want to do the sign and trade to get out from under the final year of Nash. Which would allow them to spend the cap money on any number of other players.

                          2.) If we are willing to pay Bargnani 5 years 50 million.... 5 years 55-60 million for Lowry won't break the bank or our flexibility.
                          For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Lowry would have to have interest in LA if he wants to go there.. he has all the power. Kyle is an East coast kid.. not every one wants to play in Hollywood (and LA also sucks with or without Kobe).

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Goode wrote: View Post
                              This probably isn't the best time to bring this up given the team's wild win over the league's hottest team so apologies all around for being a buzzkill.

                              Kyle Lowry's arguably the primary reason why Raptors are a winning team this season. He's playing hearts out like Rod Tidwell from Jerry McGuire screaming "show me the money". He's putting up all-star numbers this year and staying healthy and in shape. Simply put, the dude's (his agent's, rather) going to ask for a lot and get paid pretty close to his demands.

                              The general feeling in this forum seems to be that if we can retain him for 8-10m for 4 years, then we should re-sign him. That sounds ideal but we live in a world where Eric Gordon gets 14m a year. My guess is he probably demands 14m/4yrs and gets paid around 12m/4yrs. Now, that's a hefty price for just one player under the current CBA.

                              Given that Lowry plays a big part in this team, how are we looking in the tragic event that he decides to leave us for a bigger contract than we're willing to offer? Sure, Tyler Ennis looks great but I'm not sure if we can grab him in the post-14th pick. Are we comfortable taking a leap of faith with GV taking the reins?

                              Yesterday's game was probably my favourite of this season. This team can remain legit for years to come with this core. Too bad that Lowry's agent knows this too.
                              The NBA salary landscape has changed, and continues to, since the new CBA, as has Gordon's value, so I don't think you can use him as an example of value on the market. Steph Curry,,,,,, so much more valuable than him, more recently signed for an avg. of $11M. That would likely be a better benchmark in the world we live in now.

                              That guessing aside, I think some continue to overestimate the market for Lowry this coming off season. I think more than 2 thirds of the league are already committed to a starting PG for years to come, so they're out of the running. Some who aren't committed are over the cap, so can't offer if anything but minimums. They're out of the running, except for a S&T where MU would be in the drivers seat. When push comes to shove, the only real possibility that people are raising as a team that could & might offer a huge contract, is LAL, which I don't see happening.

                              Sure, Lakers will have the cap space to offer big $, but why would they? I think they're setting themselves up with cap space to chase bigger fish than Lowry, but unless it's a really insane offer, why would an ubber competitive guy like Lowry, at still a good age, commit to being Kobe's catch and shoot "PG", which is what every PG, including Nash, has been with the Kobe Lakers. It just seems like a terrible fit for the Guy. On the other hand, the Raps are a perfect fit for him, with the young guys already in place to fit his style. He's obviously enjoying himself very much with this team, and make no mistake that they are a TEAM, he relishing his role and style of play, etc.

                              I think it would take a huge offer to pry him away from what should be a fair offer to him, in the 9.5m-10m range, maybe as high as 11m. I see few, if any, that would do that, but who do you see? If the only possible nasty competition is the Lakers (which I'm not seeing happen), and Masai really wants him, I can see TL placing a call to his old boys club in LA before it reaches that point, and calling in a favour to lay off.

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