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Draft Burn-Out - Is Boeheim right about 1st rounders?

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  • #16
    enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Great thread.

    No one really talks about how huge of a bust Johnny Flynn was. In my opinion it was one of the worst draft mistakes this decade. I think at the time the Wolves were known for drafting PGs when they didnt need them.
    The Flynn pick was awful but doubly so because they had drafted Rubio in the same draft!!!
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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    • #17
      blackjitsu wrote: View Post
      Boeheim has the top team in NCAA -- recruiting will not be a problem. Also, what he said about this years freshmen turned out to be pretty accurate. The only thing I don't like is him exposing Ennis' weakness to the press. Wiggins' coach did the same thing. What's up with that?
      Recruiting has little to do with being the "top team".

      And we don't know if what he said about any of the freshmen is accurate. He did say none of them would be a Tim Duncan or LeBron James....But those are lofty goals. He could be right about that. LeBron James may be the best, or at least most complete, basketball player of all time. Tim Duncan may be the best big man of all time. Plenty of other franchise-altering players who are currently or have previously been in the league and won championships are worse than those guys. They could easily be argued as top 5 all-time players.

      Boeheim has also said he didn't expect Ennis to take the starting job this year and lead them the way he has. So if he can misevaluate his own talent, surely he can do the same for players he sees much more rarely.

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      • #18
        stooley wrote: View Post
        Well these averages include 2nd rounders and undrafted players who get signed to a 10 day contract right?

        So those would really skew the averages.

        EDIT: Ah, minimum 41 games, but still.

        Plus, I think the median number of years played would be more helpful than average number for this context.
        41 games is nothing for a rookie with a 2 year guaranteed deal. Hafa played almost 100 games more than that and he was terrible.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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        • #19
          blackjitsu wrote: View Post
          Boeheim has the top team in NCAA -- recruiting will not be a problem. Also, what he said about this years freshmen turned out to be pretty accurate. The only thing I don't like is him exposing Ennis' weakness to the press. Wiggins' coach did the same thing. What's up with that?
          It's not like the good scouts/talent evaluators dont already know the flaws in players games. I will agree though that some coaches like to flap their gums a bit much. And do GMs really care what a Boeheim has to say especially if it wasnt in confidence to one of them? Personally, too many players come out too early rather than learn the game and some skills in college.

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          • #20
            Bendit wrote: View Post
            It's not like the good scouts/talent evaluators dont already know the flaws in players games. I will agree though that some coaches like to flap their gums a bit much. And do GMs really care what a Boeheim has to say especially if it wasnt in confidence to one of them? Personally, too many players come out too early rather than learn the game and some skills in college.
            I agree with this.

            But I think in Ennis' case, it's not a real issue. He's far more advanced than his age from the perspective of skills you want in a PG. He does need to get stronger....but training is likely to be far better with NBA level facilities and trainers. He does need to work on his scoring a bit, but the spacing and type of game is different enough that I think for a smart player like him, the sooner you get him exposed to the NBA, the better it will be for his development as a scorer. He doesn't need another year of cram-the-paint zone defenses and poorly spaced basketball to help with his scoring/shooting (his stroke is actually pretty good too).

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            • #21
              Jay Williams got in a motorcycle accident, that's not exactly the same thing as being a bust.

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              • #22
                Letter N wrote: View Post
                Jay Williams got in a motorcycle accident, that's not exactly the same thing as being a bust.
                Yep. Jay Williams was a hell of a player before the accident.
                Mamba Mentality

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                • #23
                  Letter N wrote: View Post
                  Jay Williams got in a motorcycle accident, that's not exactly the same thing as being a bust.
                  Which is why I noted injury next to his name on the main list. But regardless, it is a complete list. Circumstance happens.
                  Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                  If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                  • #24
                    white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                    I agree with this.

                    But I think in Ennis' case, it's not a real issue. He's far more advanced than his age from the perspective of skills you want in a PG. He does need to get stronger....but training is likely to be far better with NBA level facilities and trainers. He does need to work on his scoring a bit, but the spacing and type of game is different enough that I think for a smart player like him, the sooner you get him exposed to the NBA, the better it will be for his development as a scorer. He doesn't need another year of cram-the-paint zone defenses and poorly spaced basketball to help with his scoring/shooting (his stroke is actually pretty good too).
                    Have just seen highlights of Ennis but the player I had in mind when I wrote that was our very own DD. I am not trying to start another DD-hater string of posts here but only to mention that so much of his skills (some basic) development occurred in the NBA. The point being that if it were not the Raps and BC providing heavy & starter minutes while he was able to hone his game he could very well have been one of those busts. To his credit, with all the help he got from the team mgt., he also worked hard...but how many years did it take? Another year or two in college would have been really positive for him. But the reality is that many need the money too so this change has to occur at the league/union level.

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                    • #25
                      Bendit wrote: View Post
                      Have just seen highlights of Ennis but the player I had in mind when I wrote that was our very own DD. I am not trying to start another DD-hater string of posts here but only to mention that so much of his skills (some basic) development occurred in the NBA. The point being that if it were not the Raps and BC providing heavy & starter minutes while he was able to hone his game he could very well have been one of those busts. To his credit, with all the help he got from the team mgt., he also worked hard...but how many years did it take? Another year or two in college would have been really positive for him. But the reality is that many need the money too so this change has to occur at the league/union level.
                      Oh for sure. And like I said, I agree with you, at least in a general sense. Many players could benefit from 2-3 years of college. DD is definitely one of them, and I think if his mom wasn't sick and he didn't desperately need security of an NBA contract, he very well could have stayed.

                      But I also think there are guys whose maturity on the court is beyond their years. This doesn't mean their game is perfect, but that their growth curve at the college level is pretty limited. Ennis is a guy I see like that. The best examples at the top this year are Randle and Parker. Both guys have mature games that don't really need more reps against college level competition. Could it help them? Sure, maybe. But could jumping to the NBA to benefit from higher quality training and competition help more? Yeah, I think it's entirely possible.

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                      • #26
                        enlightenment wrote: View Post
                        Great thread.

                        No one really talks about how huge of a bust Johnny Flynn was. In my opinion it was one of the worst draft mistakes this decade. I think at the time the Wolves were known for drafting PGs when they didnt need them.
                        Axel wrote: View Post
                        The Flynn pick was awful but doubly so because they had drafted Rubio in the same draft!!!
                        Made me think of this article from the summer league. Sad.

                        http://grantland.com/features/the-st...k-jonny-flynn/
                        Twitter - @thekid_it

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                        • #27
                          It's tough to say whether staying another year is the 'right' thing to do. I guess it depends on the college program (how much do they emphasize skill development vs team principles). The draft is usually a product of all the hype coming from scouts everywhere & it's hard to sell the idea of passing up guaranteed money for another year of college experience.

                          Each player is at a different point in their learning curves at any given point. The good thing about college is the fact that games are spread out & it leaves a lot more time for weight-building & skill development; which is tougher to accomplish in the NBA given all the travel & lack of practice time.

                          The downside in college is the lack of NBA talent to go up against. At the end of the day, a college program has the responsibility to win for their university first. We see a lot of teams using a 6'7" player at the 4 spot -- because it makes sense to use them there where majority of the competition feature players of the same size @ that position. At the end of the day, is skill development useful when those skills are not usable at the next level?

                          I'm curious to see how the NBA will expand the D-League because I see it as a viable tool for player development -- more NBA calibre competition, easier transition from D-League to NBA in terms of length/athleticism, less rigorous travel schedule = more practice time. A player can focus more on skill development that he will use in actual competition in the 'Majors' under the same system the team operates under.

                          At the end of the day, the draft will have a few All-Stars & a few busts (out of the league within x years). Majority will be role players. The numbers may fluctuate from year to year but this normal distribution is what it is; normal.

                          In terms of whether Ennis decides to stay, that's a decision that he has to make based on his situation. His head coach has the responsibility to make sure Syracuse remains competitive so there is obviously some bias there.


                          -- Charles Barkley

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                          • #28
                            Using Axel list of 22 lottery busts, here's a breakdown, which doesn't really make a case for potential lottery picks staying in school .

                            High School: 1
                            International: 2
                            Seniors: 6
                            Juniors: 6
                            Sophomores: 5
                            Freshman:2

                            One of the 2 freshman busts was Dujaun Wagner who suffered through ulcerative colitis, which had as much to do as anything for his career being derailed. I also remember the Bargs draft. If Joakim Noah hadn't gone back to Florida, he may well have ended up as the 1st pick, and definitely nowhere near the #9 pick where he ended up the following year. Boeheim is saying what's best for Boeheim.
                            If we knew half as much about coaching an NBA team as we think, we"d know twice as much as we do.

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                            • #29
                              Axel wrote: View Post
                              The 2014 draft thread had a posting (by a brilliant member) showing SI's Interview with Jim Boeheim touched on whether Ennis will turn pro. Here is the quick Q&A I want to focus on.

                              SI.com: Do you think he'll turn pro after the season is over?

                              Boeheim: I don't think so. I think he knows and his father knows that he's a really good college player. He has to become a better shooter and get stronger to go to the next level. He'd go in the first round, but look at the number of first-round picks who are already out of the league in the last two years. It's a huge number."

                              Well, now I have to look for myself.

                              NBA CBA rules, first round picks are guaranteed 2 year contracts with a team option for 2 more years. I thought it was worth while exploring, how many 1st round picks completely flame out within the first 5 years? I am not including International players that didn't come over, as that is different.

                              Here is the list of players since the 2000 draft:

                              2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th), Jason Collier (15th), Donnell Harvery (22nd), Mamadou N'Diaye (26th), Erick Barkley (28th)
                              2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th). Kirk Haston (16th), Michael Bradley (17th), Joseph Forte (21st), Jeryl Sasser (22nd)
                              2002 - Jay Williams (2nd) - Injury, Dajuan Wagner (6th). Jiri Welsch (16th), Curtis Borchardt (18th), Ryan Humphrey (19th), Qyntel Woods (21), Casey Jacobsen (22nd), Frank Williams (25th), Chris Jefferies (27th), Dan Dickau (28th)
                              2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th), Reece Gaines (15th), Troy Bell (16th)
                              2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th), Kirk Snyder (16th), David Harrison (29th)
                              2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th), Julius Hodge (20th), Wayne Simien (29th)
                              2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th), Cedric Simmons (15th), Oleksiy Pecherov (18th), Quincy Douby (19th), Marcus Williams (22nd), Josh Boone (23rd), Sergio Rodriguez (27th), Maurice Ager (28th), Mardy Collins (29th)
                              2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th), Sean Williams (17th), Javaris Crittenton (19th), Rudy Fernandez* (24th), Morris Almond (25th), Alando Tucker (29th)
                              2008 - Joe Alexander (8th), JR Giddens (30th)
                              2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th), Christian Eyenga (30th)
                              2010 - Craig Brackins (21), Dominique Jones (25th)
                              2011 - JaJuan Johnson (27th)
                              2012 - Royce White (16th) - unusual case. Staying in College would have unlikely affected his career.

                              *Rudy Fernandez is talented enough and was largely due to unhappiness with playing time/contract.

                              ~~

                              So in 12 years, we have a total of 63 players who were out of the league within 5 years of being drafted in the first round. That is 17.5% of all first round draftees or about 5 per year.

                              So for Boeheim's example, it's actually below norm as a total of 4 players from the last 3 drafts (not 2 as he referenced) are out. Some years are obviously higher than others. 30 of 63 players were drafted in the years 2002, 2006 or 2007. So almost 50% of all draft flame-outs in the past 12 years, can be attributed to a quarter (3) of the drafts. These numbers will move a bit as the last few drafts still have time to add some names.

                              Of these players, I thought I'd break it down to show lottery picks that flamed out. Here's the list:

                              2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th)
                              2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th)
                              2002 - Jay Williams (2nd), Dajuan Wagner (6th)
                              2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th)
                              2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th)
                              2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th)
                              2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th)
                              2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th)
                              2008 - Joe Alexander (8th)
                              2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th)
                              2010 -
                              2011 -
                              2012 -

                              Down to 22 players; or 13% of all lottery picks; which equates to 1.8 players per draft.


                              So, statistically speaking, 5 players this year will be out of the league within 5 years. 1 or 2 of those players will be a lottery pick. Who will they be?

                              The Raps had only 2 picks make the list, Michael Bradley and Hafa. But, if you look through the full lists, you'll see several more names of players that made it through Toronto on their way out the door.

                              Link for data:
                              http://www.basketball-reference.com/...der_by=year_id
                              Good work!

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                              • #30
                                Does Gerald Green count? He was out of the league for a while.

                                One more that was forgotten was Alexis Ajinca (20th pick) in 2008
                                Last edited by peanutwoozle; Tue Feb 11, 2014, 01:15 PM.

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