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Draft Burn-Out - Is Boeheim right about 1st rounders?

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  • #46
    3inthekeon wrote: View Post
    The TWolves actually had 3 1st round picks in 2009 and took a PG with the 3rd pick as well. That was Ty Lawson, who they traded to Denver. Oops.
    they messed up so bad.

    They went 5th pick to Rubio, 6th pick to Flynn, 18th pick to Lawson (traded to Denver for a future conditional first rounder).

    So the best PG they drafted was Lawson who they traded for essentially a redo in another draft,

    the picked Flynn and Rubio over STEPHEN CURRY, DEMAR DEROZAN, JRUE HOLIDAY.

    Has to be one of the WORST draft performance I have ever seen. Imagine a Minnesota team with Curry, Derozan, Ty Lawson. Instead you got Rubio, Flynn, and a conditional future first rounder.
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    • #47
      feet85 wrote: View Post
      That 2009 Draft Class was staaaaaacked though and it's definetly an underrated draft class. top 15 all-time imho
      And the 2013 draft has to be the top 15 weakest.

      1. Anthony Bennet
      3. Otto Porter
      4. Cody Zeller
      5. Alex Len
      10. CJ McCollum

      who are these players?
      The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

      Comment


      • #48
        enlightenment wrote: View Post
        they messed up so bad.

        They went 5th pick to Rubio, 6th pick to Flynn, 18th pick to Lawson (traded to Denver for a future conditional first rounder).

        So the best PG they drafted was Lawson who they traded for essentially a redo in another draft,

        the picked Flynn and Rubio over STEPHEN CURRY, DEMAR DEROZAN, JRUE HOLIDAY.

        Has to be one of the WORST draft performance I have ever seen. Imagine a Minnesota team with Curry, Derozan, Ty Lawson. Instead you got Rubio, Flynn, and a conditional future first rounder.
        They could have had a great trio of players for sure. Hindsight, Curry, DD and Taj Gibson (went 26th) is likely the best line-up combo, but Flynn was obviously the worst part. Heck, drafting Hansborough would have been a better choice.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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        • #49
          Axel wrote: View Post
          They could have had a great trio of players for sure. Hindsight, Curry, DD and Taj Gibson (went 26th) is likely the best line-up combo, but Flynn was obviously the worst part. Heck, drafting Hansborough would have been a better choice.
          And don't forget about Kevin Love would be included into that lineup.
          The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

          Comment


          • #50
            Great OP. It's really hard to parse the effect of staying in school on has on draft position. I think that if you are projected to be a lotto pick you are 100% better off by entering the draft. It seems to me that you when you're projected to be at the top there's nowhere to go but down.

            I don't like the idea of the NCAA being a farm system for the NBA. I'd much rather see the d-league develop more and have that be an avenue for players to develop. Also in this day and age, with the prevalence of distance ed programs, a player could easily play professionally in the d-league or on an NBA team and still get a college degree.
            "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

            "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

            "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

            Comment


            • #51
              Lmao that draft was the most Timberwolves thing ever. Draft three pg's, Trade the best one, ruin one just in time for one of the best overseas draft prospects to come over, then find out he can't shoot.

              I agree with the D-League being a good alternative option if you don't want to go to school, but I don't think it's an attractive one yet. Only 17 teams, and the average salary is 15 K. If you're living on your own as an 18 year old wanting some space, it's less attractive to handle bills on a tiny salary and be in an ignored league, than to pick the league that gives you free nice lodging among a large amount of people your age and the chance to get a degree.

              I don't think the D-League will be truly able to challenge the NCAA as a farm system ever. It's much more likely we see some moderate growth in the D-League as a farm system, and the NCAA as a system changes to allow players to make some money. Even if it's just a cut of the merch profits and the ability to sign endorsement deals, you'll get more in the NCAA and raise your profile.
              @Boymusic66

              Comment


              • #52
                ezz_bee wrote: View Post
                Great OP. It's really hard to parse the effect of staying in school on has on draft position. I think that if you are projected to be a lotto pick you are 100% better off by entering the draft. It seems to me that you when you're projected to be at the top there's nowhere to go but down.

                I don't like the idea of the NCAA being a farm system for the NBA. I'd much rather see the d-league develop more and have that be an avenue for players to develop. Also in this day and age, with the prevalence of distance ed programs, a player could easily play professionally in the d-league or on an NBA team and still get a college degree.
                2 thoughts on this.

                1. For a player's financial perspective, you are absolutely right. If you can get a near guarantee for a high slotted salary, you take it.

                2. Developmentally though, I don't think it's necessarily true. Not many top picks made the list (Adam Morrison being the only one really and he was a junior) but I think that has as much to do with top picks garnering 2nd and 3rd chances more so than lower picks. Look at Shelden Williams for example. #5 pick in 2006 - he lasted 6 seasons in the NBA but it took 7 teams to do so. Or look at Darko Milicic - #2 in 2003 - 10 seasons with 6 teams. These players always seem to get another chance because teams are constantly looking to hit the "untapped potential" - which is a very sound strategy for team building. Would Darko have been better off not coming to the NBA when he did? He could have developed more physically and mentally and should have entered better prepared. We'll never know for sure, but I don't think you can take the findings of the OP and use it as correlation to say, top picks are better off entering the NBA than returning to college.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                Comment


                • #53
                  What's Terrence Williams doing? We could use 2 Raptors in the dunk contest when it ASW is here in 2016. He's only 26!

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    92TillInfinity wrote: View Post
                    What's Terrence Williams doing? We could use 2 Raptors in the dunk contest when it ASW is here in 2016. He's only 26!
                    He has some serious attitude problems from what I hear, he couldn't close his mouth enough to stay on the Celtics last year with KG.Pierce on the team, if the Celtics couldnt chill this guy out the raptors certainly cannot
                    "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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                    • #55
                      Letter N wrote: View Post
                      Jay Williams got in a motorcycle accident, that's not exactly the same thing as being a bust.
                      Agreed, but if I'm not mistaken, he had a clause in his contract that explicitly stated he couldn't ride a motorcycle. And he did it anyways. And he was speeding and god knows what else. It really is a shame, and I feel for him, but I would consider that a bust, not in the traditional sense, but in the sense that a guy gets drafted high and thinks he is invincible/above improvement.
                      A key that opens many locks is a master key, but a lock that gets open by many keys is just a shitty lock

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                      • #56
                        I don't think it was mentioned that Donte Green (28th in 2008) and Fab Melo (22nd in 2012) are out of the league right now. Both played for Jim Boeheim, coincidently, at Syracuse.
                        Last edited by stretch; Mon Feb 17, 2014, 01:58 PM.

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                        • #57
                          Didn't Fab Melo get kicked off the Syracuse squad? He HAD to go into the draft -- he couldn't stay in school (if I remember correctly).

                          http://content.usatoday.com/communit...1#.UwJinEF32So

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Axel wrote: View Post
                            2 thoughts on this.

                            1. For a player's financial perspective, you are absolutely right. If you can get a near guarantee for a high slotted salary, you take it.

                            2. Developmentally though, I don't think it's necessarily true. Not many top picks made the list (Adam Morrison being the only one really and he was a junior) but I think that has as much to do with top picks garnering 2nd and 3rd chances more so than lower picks. Look at Shelden Williams for example. #5 pick in 2006 - he lasted 6 seasons in the NBA but it took 7 teams to do so. Or look at Darko Milicic - #2 in 2003 - 10 seasons with 6 teams. These players always seem to get another chance because teams are constantly looking to hit the "untapped potential" - which is a very sound strategy for team building. Would Darko have been better off not coming to the NBA when he did? He could have developed more physically and mentally and should have entered better prepared. We'll never know for sure, but I don't think you can take the findings of the OP and use it as correlation to say, top picks are better off entering the NBA than returning to college.
                            I agree with the above bold. The statement, "another year in college could help with X..." Where X is player development, mental discipline, maturity, polished skills... etc, has a certain logic to it. It works off the assumption that we get better at things with time. However, there is evidence that NBA invest a lot more time and resources to top picks regardless of their performance. At the very least if you are a top draft pick you are going to get that 2nd and 3rd chance with other teams before you wash out of the league entirely.

                            I do not believe there is any advantage for players to gain from staying in college an extra year if they are projected lottery pick. The advantage is only for teams who have a better sense of what the player is capable of, and make decisions more on production than potential.

                            I'm not sure what is the best for fans, but for basketball players projected to go in the lottery, you should never stay in school.

                            EDIT: If you are taken in the lottery you are going to get more playing time, development from the org, plus if you are a bust, you are always going to get at least 1 more second chance (unless of the case of injury, but staying in college wouldn't change that). Anthony Bennet is a great example. He was a reach at number 1, and has given one of the biggest disappointing starts for a number one pick. Yet there are many orgs that wouldn't hesitate to acquire him in a trade. If you stay in school and your draft stock lowers (which is more likely than going up) and you are drafted in the late teen's early 20's, you are way less likely to get playing time. The org is more likely to view you as a trade asset than potential worth developing (think Quincy Acy). To use another raps example, Bargs wouldn't have been spoon fed and clung to for 7 years if he was taken outside of the top 10. Yet Barg's benefited from those decisions more than the org or the fan base.
                            Last edited by ezz_bee; Tue Feb 18, 2014, 09:46 AM.
                            "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                            "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                            "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Related to this thread.. looks like Silver is interested in raising the age limit (has to be agreed upon by the players association of course):
                              http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10...a-commissioner

                              The draft: Silver said everywhere he goes that "people dislike so-called one and done," referring to the many players who go to college for just one year to meet the league's age minimum of being one year out of high school and 19 years old. He favors pushing the age minimum to 20.

                              "It is my belief that if players have an opportunity to mature as players and as people, for a longer amount of time before they come into the league, it will lead to a better league," he said. "And I know from a competitive standpoint that's something as I travel the league I increasingly hear from our coaches, especially, who feel that many of even the top players in the league could use more time to develop even as leaders as part of college programs."

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                ezz_bee wrote: View Post
                                I agree with the above bold. The statement, "another year in college could help with X..." Where X is player development, mental discipline, maturity, polished skills... etc, has a certain logic to it. It works off the assumption that we get better at things with time. However, there is evidence that NBA invest a lot more time and resources to top picks regardless of their performance. At the very least if you are a top draft pick you are going to get that 2nd and 3rd chance with other teams before you wash out of the league entirely.

                                I do not believe there is any advantage for players to gain from staying in college an extra year if they are projected lottery pick. The advantage is only for teams who have a better sense of what the player is capable of, and make decisions more on production than potential.

                                I'm not sure what is the best for fans, but for basketball players projected to go in the lottery, you should never stay in school.

                                EDIT: If you are taken in the lottery you are going to get more playing time, development from the org, plus if you are a bust, you are always going to get at least 1 more second chance (unless of the case of injury, but staying in college wouldn't change that). Anthony Bennet is a great example. He was a reach at number 1, and has given one of the biggest disappointing starts for a number one pick. Yet there are many orgs that wouldn't hesitate to acquire him in a trade. If you stay in school and your draft stock lowers (which is more likely than going up) and you are drafted in the late teen's early 20's, you are way less likely to get playing time. The org is more likely to view you as a trade asset than potential worth developing (think Quincy Acy). To use another raps example, Bargs wouldn't have been spoon fed and clung to for 7 years if he was taken outside of the top 10. Yet Barg's benefited from those decisions more than the org or the fan base.
                                This is a good point, but to play devil's advocate, the amount of practice time in the NBA is far, far less than in the NCAA. In college, team's are holding practices every day. They're developing skills, working on technical foundations, etc. In the NBA, players are essentially given game time to develop their skills. The very limited amount of practice time is generally used to run sets and go over schemes.
                                "Bruno?
                                Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                                He's terrible."

                                -Superjudge, 7/23

                                Hope you're wrong.

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