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Nice bit of work. I wonder how many picks in the bottom half of the draft are still in the league 5 years later? -
Re-did the math after CRF's post. Total changes to 16% and lotto picks to 12%.Leave a comment:
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Top-10 picks: 12 (9.2%)
Top-5 picks: 2 (3.1%)
Really comes as no surprise that the 'guarantee' of drafting a player who will contribute long-term increases the closer you get to the top of the lottery.
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PS: you actually studied 13 seasons, not 12 (2000-2012 inclusive), so I'm not sure if that impacts your math at all...Leave a comment:
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Draft Burn-Out - Is Boeheim right about 1st rounders?
The 2014 draft thread had a posting (by a brilliant member) showing SI's Interview with Jim Boeheim touched on whether Ennis will turn pro. Here is the quick Q&A I want to focus on.
SI.com: Do you think he'll turn pro after the season is over?
Boeheim: I don't think so. I think he knows and his father knows that he's a really good college player. He has to become a better shooter and get stronger to go to the next level. He'd go in the first round, but look at the number of first-round picks who are already out of the league in the last two years. It's a huge number."
Well, now I have to look for myself.
NBA CBA rules, first round picks are guaranteed 2 year contracts with a team option for 2 more years. I thought it was worth while exploring, how many 1st round picks completely flame out within the first 5 years? I am not including International players that didn't come over, as that is different.
Here is the list of players since the 2000 draft:
2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th), Jason Collier (15th), Donnell Harvery (22nd), Mamadou N'Diaye (26th), Erick Barkley (28th)
2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th). Kirk Haston (16th), Michael Bradley (17th), Joseph Forte (21st), Jeryl Sasser (22nd)
2002 - Jay Williams (2nd) - Injury, Dajuan Wagner (6th). Jiri Welsch (16th), Curtis Borchardt (18th), Ryan Humphrey (19th), Qyntel Woods (21), Casey Jacobsen (22nd), Frank Williams (25th), Chris Jefferies (27th), Dan Dickau (28th)
2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th), Reece Gaines (15th), Troy Bell (16th)
2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th), Kirk Snyder (16th), David Harrison (29th)
2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th), Julius Hodge (20th), Wayne Simien (29th)
2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th), Cedric Simmons (15th), Oleksiy Pecherov (18th), Quincy Douby (19th), Marcus Williams (22nd), Josh Boone (23rd), Sergio Rodriguez (27th), Maurice Ager (28th), Mardy Collins (29th)
2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th), Sean Williams (17th), Javaris Crittenton (19th), Rudy Fernandez* (24th), Morris Almond (25th), Alando Tucker (29th)
2008 - Joe Alexander (8th), JR Giddens (30th)
2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th), Christian Eyenga (30th)
2010 - Craig Brackins (21), Dominique Jones (25th)
2011 - JaJuan Johnson (27th)
2012 - Royce White (16th) - unusual case. Staying in College would have unlikely affected his career.
*Rudy Fernandez is talented enough and was largely due to unhappiness with playing time/contract.
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So in 12 years, we have a total of 63 players who were out of the league within 5 years of being drafted in the first round. That is 17.5% of all first round draftees or about 5 per year.
So for Boeheim's example, it's actually below norm as a total of 4 players from the last 3 drafts (not 2 as he referenced) are out. Some years are obviously higher than others. 30 of 63 players were drafted in the years 2002, 2006 or 2007. So almost 50% of all draft flame-outs in the past 12 years, can be attributed to a quarter (3) of the drafts. These numbers will move a bit as the last few drafts still have time to add some names.
Of these players, I thought I'd break it down to show lottery picks that flamed out. Here's the list:
2000 - Jerome Moiso (11th), Courtney Alexander (13th)
2001 - Rodney White (9th), Kedreick Brown (11th)
2002 - Jay Williams (2nd), Dajuan Wagner (6th)
2003 - Mike Sweetney (9th)
2004 - Rafael Araujo (8th), Luke Jackson (10th), Robert Swift (12th)
2005 - Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th)
2006 - Adam Morrison (3rd), Patrick O'Bryant (9th), Mouhamed Sene (10th)
2007 - Yi Jianlian (6th), Acie Law (11th), Julian Wright (13), Al Thornton (14th)
2008 - Joe Alexander (8th)
2009 - Jonny Flynn (6th, Syracuse), Terrence Williams (11th)
2010 -
2011 -
2012 -
Down to 22 players; or 13% of all lottery picks; which equates to 1.8 players per draft.
So, statistically speaking, 5 players this year will be out of the league within 5 years. 1 or 2 of those players will be a lottery pick. Who will they be?
The Raps had only 2 picks make the list, Michael Bradley and Hafa. But, if you look through the full lists, you'll see several more names of players that made it through Toronto on their way out the door.
Link for data:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...der_by=year_id
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