Is Toronto worst 3rd seed EVER?

[white men can't jump]

How about just not really looking at what's really happening in the East - past or present (or maybe Jorge started covering the NBA last year?)

Well the Raptors being a 3rd seed is definitely at least partly because of the weakness of the conference. Also kinda poor form to throw in #4 seeds with the comparison. There can be a pretty big drop from 3rd to 4th, and 3rd is where the Raptors currently stand. Having 4th seeds in there makes no real sense for comparison. So it'd be better just to compare 3rd seeds

Current: Toronto win% .565...pace for 46+ wins (of course have to consider horrible start and that our pace has been better, this is just what the math shows)

If we look at more recent years and just at the 3rd seed (*or rather teams that would be 3rd seeds if the rules were the same as they are now, meaning if the 3rd best team has a better record than the 4th, but the 4th wins a division, the higher seed goes to the better team, not division winner)

12-13: Indiana 49 wins, .605 win%
11-12: Indiana 42 wins (shortened season), .636 win%
10-11: Boston 56 wins, .683 win%
09-10: Atlanta 53 wins, .646 win%
08-09: Orlando 59 wins, .720 win%
07-08: Orlando 52 wins, .634 win%
06-07: Toronto 47 wins, .573 win%
05-06: Cleveland 50 wins, .610 win%
04-05: Chicago 47 wins, .573 win%

I'll stop there, because then we get back to 2 divisions and some weird results. ** It was obviously even worse at times when there were only 2 divisions, in terms of 2nd or 3rd best teams being bumped down because a division winner got the 2nd seed automatically.

I haven't double-checked @ezz_bee's post, but it's interesting stuff. And it seems to outline that Toronto is indeed one of the worst 3rd seeds ever.

[MACK11]

The spurs are currently putting a beat down on the bulls right now 50-19 early 2nd ! Ahaha

[brothersteve]

Paul @Paul__Dawkins
Does Toronto finish with the 3rd seed in the East, or do the Bulls overtake them?


Jorge Sierra @hoopshype

I'd go with Toronto. They don't have a particularly tough schedule. Final six games are against Milwaukee (twice), New York (twice), Detroit and Philadelphia. Those could easily be six wins.

No disrespect to the Raptors, but they may be the worst No. 3 seed I've seen since I started covering the NBA. What they are accomplishing is commendable, but Toronto being so high in the standings is very much a reflection of the sorry state of the Eastern Conference.

A dose of reality or hating just to hate?

How about just not really looking at what's really happening in the East - past or present (or maybe Jorge started covering the NBA last year?)

If you were wondering if the East had the weakest final 6 playoff seeds in living memory, you need to check the record books a little closer:

2009 Atlanta 4th, 47 wins
2008 Cleveland 4th, 45 wins
2007 Toronto 3rd, 47 wins
2006 Denver 3rd, 44 wins
2005 Boston 3rd, 45 wins
2004 Miami 4th, 42 wins

The current Eastern Conference playoff seeds 3-7 hold down the number 1, 4, 5, 9 and 12 spots for the fewest points allowed in the NBA. They don’t have the offensive flash of their Western Conference counterparts, but isn’t the analogy, scoring can win in the regular season, but defense wins in the playoffs.

Underestimating The NBA Eastern Conference Again

[JawsGT]

I think we realistically might be one of the worst 3rd seeds of all time. This is not a comment on the Raptors though, this is a comment on the eastern conference. We're widely regarded as the 10th-12th best team in the league.

I actually think this team is better than that. I think we are top ten and better than the 6-9 seeds in the West. GSW, PHX, and DAL are all teams that I believe we could beat in a 7 game series, MIN for sure. MEM is a different story, as they are starting to come around on the backs of their defense, and because of their inside dominance would surely be a tough series for the Raps. I also think they make the playoffs and will be a tough out for whoever they play in the first round. They are the sleeper team in the West for me, and could sneak out of the 1st round because there defense will give them the chance to win games. But outside of the top 5 in the West, I don't think there is much there with the rest of the conference, and in the East it's really just IND and MIA, we can hang with the rest of the East for sure.

I don't think our overall record is a clear indication of how good this team is. We have played .675 ball since the Gay trade, which would put us up there in terms of percentage alongside the Clips and Rockets and Blazers. Now I don't think we are as good as those teams, but given how well we can play defense, I think we can go with any team outside of top 5 in West and top 2 in East. Furthermore, I think we could give the Pacers a very hard time in the playoffs. We are both good/great defensive teams, but the Pacers offense isn't as good as ours IMO. They utilize more ISO's with George and Stevenson on the perimeter and West, hibbert and Scola in the post. They are more one on one offensively than the Raps and I think that would work to our advantage. There biggest advantage would be the Hibbert/JV matchup, and their experience, but I think the Raps would make it tough on them if we were to meet in the playoffs.

[ezz_bee]

I went back over every NBA season from 1980-1981 through this year.

Toronto has the lowest win % of a third or higher seed that was also third or higher in conference standing since the 1983-1984 Utah Jazz. The Jazz had the third best record in the West with .549 but were the second seed in the playoffs.

However, the WORST 3rd seed since 1980 was the 2005-2006 Denver Nuggets. They were tied for 7th in the conference with a winning percentage of .537, but were the third seed because they won their division.

The 2004-2005 Boston Celtics were tied for the 4th best record in the conference but were the 3rd seed in the playoffs also because they won their division.

So to recap, IF Toronto finishes the season with the same winning percentage they have now, and it is good enough for the third best record in the conference, it will be the worst winning percentage since 1984.

However, if you are just looking at lowest winning percentage of the third seed it goes to the Nuggets, but that's only because of the NBA's weird rules for winning the division.

[Nilanka]

I think we realistically might be one of the worst 3rd seeds of all time. This is not a comment on the Raptors though, this is a comment on the eastern conference. We're widely regarded as the 10th-12th best team in the league.

Yup. Ideally, a 3rd seed would be discussed as the 5th/6th best in the league.

[Superjudge]

what if the win a round and challenge or win the second?

[stooley]

Well, the Mavs won a title as a 3rd seed a few years ago. Quite a few 3rd seeds are contenders. Maybe not the top contenders but teams that have a reasonable chance.

I don't see this as a Raptors thing. It's a general trend to bash the "Leastern" conference at every opportunity, it is a fashionable thing to do lately. There was a lot of that last year as well, but this year especially since the East is even worse. It might be a bit annoying but it's understandable, only two East teams are above .500 vs West.

I think we realistically might be one of the worst 3rd seeds of all time. This is not a comment on the Raptors though, this is a comment on the eastern conference. We're widely regarded as the 10th-12th best team in the league.

[BobLoblaw]

I think that all of this is not really relevant and I'll tell you why:

How many 3 seeds have even made the finals? Basketball is great because the best teams are the best the whole year (99% of the time).

This does not take away from the fact that we are a 3rd seed, and that's an accomplishment. But in reality, seeding matters most in the 1 vs. 2 matchup in the conference finals, where the home team wins game 7 way more often.

So yes, comparing us to other 3 seeds who also eventually lost in the 2nd round (maybe 3rd) is hating just to hate.

I didn't see anything about this when the Knicks were clearly playing an unsustainable form of basketball and now are far worse this year. You could argue that the knicks were the worst 2 seed ever last year...but no one does. why? because we're the raptors and they're the knicks

boy i sound bitter....

Well, the Mavs won a title as a 3rd seed a few years ago. Quite a few 3rd seeds are contenders. Maybe not the top contenders but teams that have a reasonable chance.

I don't see this as a Raptors thing. It's a general trend to bash the "Leastern" conference at every opportunity, it is a fashionable thing to do lately. There was a lot of that last year as well, but this year especially since the East is even worse. It might be a bit annoying but it's understandable, only two East teams are above .500 vs West.

[BallaBalla]

'01 Heat were pretty bad for a 3rd seed. The year they lost Alonzo Mourning but still finished no.3.

I think that all of this is not really relevant and I'll tell you why:

How many 3 seeds have even made the finals? Basketball is great because the best teams are the best the whole year (99% of the time).

This does not take away from the fact that we are a 3rd seed, and that's an accomplishment. But in reality, seeding matters most in the 1 vs. 2 matchup in the conference finals, where the home team wins game 7 way more often.

So yes, comparing us to other 3 seeds who also eventually lost in the 2nd round (maybe 3rd) is hating just to hate.

I didn't see anything about this when the Knicks were clearly playing an unsustainable form of basketball and now are far worse this year. You could argue that the knicks were the worst 2 seed ever last year...but no one does. why? because we're the raptors and they're the knicks

boy i sound bitter....

[BobLoblaw]

'01 Heat were pretty bad for a 3rd seed. The year they lost Alonzo Mourning but still finished no.3.

[yertu damkule]

ya and we just beat the warriors without Ross

not sure if you've noticed, but the warriors - much like the wolves - aren't nearly as good as you'd assume they'd be given the talent on the roster. that's to take nothing away from the W against the W's.

[Hassan]

ya and we just beat the warriors without Ross

[OldSkoolCool]

'last couple months'; since dec 26th, when they were 24-5, they've gone 17-13. if you want to be picky, in their literal 'last couple months,' they've gone 15-10 (10-10 prior to their recent 5 game winning streak, which was against Utah, Minny, the Nyets & Denver twice. not exactly impressive competition. one could argue that their last truly quality win was...a month ago, against the Raps), so, yeah, considering how they started, they've been pretty mediocre since. which is pretty much what the advanced metrics were screaming all season long.

They were pretty banged up...and LA hit a bit of a slump. At one point Lopez, Aldridge, Robinson, Freeland and Leonard were all injured...pretty tough to win with that.

They are getting things back together now though

[yertu damkule]

since december, portland are 28-15. hardly mediocre.

'last couple months'; since dec 26th, when they were 24-5, they've gone 17-13. if you want to be picky, in their literal 'last couple months,' they've gone 15-10 (10-10 prior to their recent 5 game winning streak, which was against Utah, Minny, the Nyets & Denver twice. not exactly impressive competition. one could argue that their last truly quality win was...a month ago, against the Raps), so, yeah, considering how they started, they've been pretty mediocre since. which is pretty much what the advanced metrics were screaming all season long.