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  • Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Congrats to Kyle for becoming our all time steals leader!

    Also, he is currently number 1 in the NBA with 11.1 assists per game. The gap between him and number 2 James Harden (9.0) is as big as the gap between 2nd and 14th.

    He is also number 2 in ORatg, was 5th in win shares BEFORE the win, and is sporting a gaudy 65% TS%.

    Rumours of his decline have been greatly exaggerated.
    Yeah, I never understood the persistent "Lowry is declining" chatter, like it was a well established fact. His 2 highest full-season ORTGs have come in the last 2 seasons with the only thing changing being lower USG and less FTs due to Nurse's system last year and this year. Lowry's actually been getting better.

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    • golden wrote: View Post
      Yeah, I never understood the persistent "Lowry is declining" chatter, like it was a well established fact. His 2 highest full-season ORTGs have come in the last 2 seasons with the only thing changing being lower USG and less FTs due to Nurse's system last year and this year. Lowry's actually been getting better.
      I think it's fair to say he probably peaked two-three seasons ago. That doesn't mean he's really on the decline though - he's practically sustained that level of excellence and just shifted his style since then. He's putting up crazy numbers this year so far, though they probably won't hold up all year.

      Over the past 3 full seasons he's largely been the same player and he looks like he's just as effective this year. Very impressive for a guy on the wrong end of most aging curves.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • Scraptor wrote: View Post
        Congrats to Kyle for becoming our all time steals leader!

        Also, he is currently number 1 in the NBA with 11.1 assists per game. The gap between him and number 2 James Harden (9.0) is as big as the gap between 2nd and 14th.

        He is also number 2 in ORatg, was 5th in win shares BEFORE the win, and is sporting a gaudy 65% TS%.

        Rumours of his decline have been greatly exaggerated.
        other than Curry (obv) he is the 2nd best PG in the league right now
        Abbas wrote:

        First of all i was my own source

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        • golden wrote: View Post
          Yeah, I never understood the persistent "Lowry is declining" chatter, like it was a well established fact. His 2 highest full-season ORTGs have come in the last 2 seasons with the only thing changing being lower USG and less FTs due to Nurse's system last year and this year. Lowry's actually been getting better.
          It was a "well established fact" because all basketball evidence this side of Stockton and Nash says that point guards decline at 32, and his numbers were slightly down already last year.

          That said, some credit probably needs to be given to Kawhi, and "serge at the 5", and having the ball in his hands a lot more than Derozan was here, for bumping up his numbers again
          It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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            • KeonClark wrote: View Post
              It was a "well established fact" because all basketball evidence this side of Stockton and Nash says that point guards decline at 32, and his numbers were slightly down already last year.

              That said, some credit probably needs to be given to Kawhi, and "serge at the 5", and having the ball in his hands a lot more than Derozan was here, for bumping up his numbers again
              I really don't think "Serge at the 5" has anything to do with it.

              Lowry's averaging 16+12 per 36 with Serge on the floor on 56 TS%. He's averaging 26+11 per 36 with Serge off the floor on 80 (!) TS%.

              Kawhi helps, though, as does the offence running through Lowry now (at least with the assist rate).
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • He gained a couple of assists as well with Green being dead eye in the corners.

                And Pascals knack in cutting as that was not so evident last season.

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                • KeonClark wrote: View Post
                  It was a "well established fact" because all basketball evidence this side of Stockton and Nash says that point guards decline at 32, and his numbers were slightly down already last year.

                  That said, some credit probably needs to be given to Kawhi, and "serge at the 5", and having the ball in his hands a lot more than Derozan was here, for bumping up his numbers again
                  But he didn't turn 32 until this March, which means that now is when we theoretically should start worrying, not the past couple of seasons.

                  And I'm not being facetious but I've never heard of this well-established fact. Billups, Cassell, Payton, and Kidd all had all-star years in their age 33 seasons or older. Smart players who don't rely on their athleticism (like Kyle) are the ones who stay solid into their middle 30s. 34-35 is where we'll probably really see it but hopefully Freddy has downloaded all of Kyle's BBIQ by then.
                  It's the Spicy Show! Time to cook.

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                  • DanH wrote: View Post
                    I really don't think "Serge at the 5" has anything to do with it.

                    Lowry's averaging 16+12 per 36 with Serge on the floor on 56 TS%. He's averaging 26+11 per 36 with Serge off the floor on 80 (!) TS%.

                    Kawhi helps, though, as does the offence running through Lowry now (at least with the assist rate).
                    The reason I put Serge at the 5 in quotations was because I didnt mean Serge directly was responsible, but just the lineup formation or 1 big, 4 out. That is to say the numbers might even be higher with JV, but the important thing is they're not out there together, clogging up lowry's room to work.

                    I'm excited to finally see fred and delon together wheeling and dealing in the 2nd unit with 1 big (jv), 4 out. I suspect the bench issue will work itself out
                    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                    • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                      But he didn't turn 32 until this March, which means that now is when we theoretically should start worrying, not the past couple of seasons.

                      And I'm not being facetious but I've never heard of this well-established fact. Billups, Cassell, Payton, and Kidd all had all-star years in their age 33 seasons or older. Smart players who don't rely on their athleticism (like Kyle) are the ones who stay solid into their middle 30s. 34-35 is where we'll probably really see it but hopefully Freddy has downloaded all of Kyle's BBIQ by then.
                      https://medium.com/sportsraid/the-no...d-a2a2e168d200



                      Bob Cousy — retired at 34 (came back at 41 very briefly), but was statistically in decline at 32;

                      Isiah Thomas — retired at 32 (achilles injury right before the end);

                      Nate ‘Tiny’ Archibald — retired at 35, but was in decline at 30 where he began playing for the Celtics, as a PG, but on reduced minutes;

                      Allen Iverson — done at 34 (was he really a PG?), in decline at 32;

                      Walt Frazier — retired at 34, but gone from the Knicks at 32, to Cleveland, as his numbers were down;

                      Oscar Robertson — retired at 35, last best year was when he was on Bucks championship team of 1971–72, at age 33;

                      Tony Parker — still playing for San Antonio, at 34, but in decline since he was 32.

                      Maurice Cheeks — retired at 36, but in decline at 32, after he leave the 76ers.

                      Fat Lever — 33

                      Mark Price — 31

                      You get it right? The age of 32, for point guards in the NBA, is for the most part, the end, or the beginning of the end, and Paul is there now, at the crossroads and already injured.

                      Are there exceptions to this general rule? Sure. Steve Nash comes to mind as does John Stockton, who clearly defied the general rule but was arguably not a point guard who relied on quickness as much late into his career. Neither did Jason Kidd once he got older, who goes to Dallas as basically a back-up point guard with a better deep shot to boot.

                      Gary Payton challenged the rule a little (he declined at 34) and Lenny Wilkins made it to 37 and mostly was a solid player all of those years. Jerry West had a solid career all the way to the end at 35. Magic Johnson had longevity but we will never know how his career would have actually ended because of other things.

                      But still, in general, point guards begin to show the wear and tear, the lost of that extra gear of quickness at 32. If they want to survive, they have to remake themselves and get a bit of luck, or as in the case of Stockton, continue to thrive in an ideal situation (Utah).
                      It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                      • Guys best able to buck that trend play with size. Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Andre Miller - all recent(ish) examples of keeping up production to 34 or 35 with a combination of size/physicality, high IQ, and having an outside shot.

                        Lowry is strong but not tall. He's a great spot up shooter. He's high IQ. He'll lose quickness off the bounce in his 30's, but I think he maintains good productivity for several more seasons.
                        "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                        • S.R. wrote: View Post
                          Guys best able to buck that trend play with size. Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Andre Miller - all recent(ish) examples of keeping up production to 34 or 35 with a combination of size/physicality, high IQ, and having an outside shot.

                          Lowry is strong but not tall. He's a great spot up shooter. He's high IQ. He'll lose quickness off the bounce in his 30's, but I think he maintains good productivity for several more seasons.
                          I'm not saying he won't, I'm just saying the ever so slight decline. Which obviously would be easily mitigated both by Kawhi staying and continued development of steady freddy
                          It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                          • KeonClark wrote: View Post
                            I'm not saying he won't, I'm just saying the ever so slight decline. Which obviously would be easily mitigated both by Kawhi staying and continued development of steady freddy
                            FVV and Delon are both solid but don't project to replace Lowry's impact. In an ideal world where Kawhi signs a new deal in Toronto, Masai's going to need a talent injection to make sure there's a legit second star on the team. Kawhi + role players won't cut it.
                            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                            • The season is only 8 games old. Let's see how much pep he has by game 78 when they are gearing up for playoffs. That is when I'm most concerned his age and style of play may catch up to him. Hoping by the second half of the season Kawhi won't be taking games off for rest because that could really impact Kyle.

                              I love how Kyle can change his game up from season to season. The guy is a swiss army knife.

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                              • LJ2 wrote: View Post
                                The season is only 8 games old. Let's see how much pep he has by game 78 when they are gearing up for playoffs. That is when I'm most concerned his age and style of play may catch up to him. Hoping by the second half of the season Kawhi won't be taking games off for rest because that could really impact Kyle.
                                Agreed in general, a couple thoughts:

                                - The old ISO heavy offence that also needed 20+ ppg from him was a big drain. He's able to pick and choose his shots more now and puts more energy into facilitating rather than scoring. That's easier to maintain over the long haul.
                                - It looks to me like he's crashing the basket on drives a lot less than a couple years ago. It's throwing your body at 7 footers near the rim and crash landing on the camera men night in and night out that he used to do more and doesn't need to do as much now.
                                - He is still playing with a ton of intensity on both sides of the ball. Not sure that's sustainable and not sure it's really needed over the whole season. Dial it up to that level for key games and the postseason, yes, but don't burn out in the meantime.
                                - He is leading the league in charges drawn again with 6. Love that he does this, wouldn't mind if he did it a little less when he doesn't really need to. Choose your spots a little more (if that's possible).
                                - When Delon and Fred are healthy and back in the rotation, hopefully Lowry's minutes come down a bit.
                                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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