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  • Puffer wrote: View Post
    From the front section of RR. Blakes tweet and the accompanying graphic are unbelievable.

    http://forecastingprinciples.com/
    that doesn't look like the description =/ more like a economic forecasting website

    nothing to do with basketball

    Comment


    • 3inthekeon wrote: View Post
      Hey Puffer, is that the link you wanted to post?
      Here we go.

      https://twitter.com/BlakeMurphyODC/s...433536/photo/1

      Don't know how I screwed that up. Hate using this stupid tablet. But I love my recliner enough to turn up my nose at the desktop. :-)

      Comment


      • Zainab wrote: View Post
        that doesn't look like the description =/ more like a economic forecasting website

        nothing to do with basketball
        Right you are, but a very interesting site. Turns out their are scientific principles involved in forecasting. And, generally speaking, when you simply take a sampling of "expert" opinions when making a forecast, you violate most of the scientific principles and invariably are wrong. That's why the world hasn't all died from pesticide induced cancers, suffered through another ice age, run out of oil, copper, nickel, rare earths, succumbed to starvation because of over population, died from a massive aids epidemic, seen our forests ravished by acid rain, had all our computers fail because of Y2K, already seen an ice free arctic and suffered from a 5 foot rise in sea level, been blown up by nuclear weapons, etc., etc. All of those things were supposed to have happened in the last 40 years. Experts don't seem to be as good at predicting as chimpanzees throwing darts.

        So you can go ahead and have a great life.

        Comment


        • To be fair a lot of predictions are just probability forecasts and when a lower probability outcome occurs, people think the forecast was wrong. It wasn't necessarily, sometimes the 40% chance event happens instead of the 60% chance event. Happens about 40% of the time actually, if the forecast was accurate. Funny how that works.
          "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

          Comment


          • Puffer wrote: View Post
            Right you are, but a very interesting site. Turns out their are scientific principles involved in forecasting. And, generally speaking, when you simply take a sampling of "expert" opinions when making a forecast, you violate most of the scientific principles and invariably are wrong. That's why the world hasn't all died from pesticide induced cancers, suffered through another ice age, run out of oil, copper, nickel, rare earths, succumbed to starvation because of over population, died from a massive aids epidemic, seen our forests ravished by acid rain, had all our computers fail because of Y2K, already seen an ice free arctic and suffered from a 5 foot rise in sea level, been blown up by nuclear weapons, etc., etc. All of those things were supposed to have happened in the last 40 years. Experts don't seem to be as good at predicting as chimpanzees throwing darts.

            So you can go ahead and have a great life.
            In regards to AIDS and Y2K. The former would have been a major global disaster, had human beings not done a ton of work in education and health. A lot of money, time and effort was put into fixing code that could be affected to the Y2K bug. In that sense, those predictions are probably happy to be wrong as humans get spurred into action.

            Pesticides are killing a lot of insects. We're definitely experiencing an extinction event, and climate change is real and another thing that needs to spur humanity into action. (Hopefully, it will and most of the real bad stuff will be avoided).

            And we are running out of copper... to mine. Its a renewable metal, so realistically, we shouldn't run out.

            Comment


            • Puffer wrote: View Post
              Here we go.

              https://twitter.com/BlakeMurphyODC/s...433536/photo/1

              Don't know how I screwed that up. Hate using this stupid tablet. But I love my recliner enough to turn up my nose at the desktop. :-)
              Would be interesting to know what former NBA players Lowry is comparable too. A guy that doesn't put up gaudy numbers but generally just helps the team win. Maybe Jason Kidd back when he was in Dallas?

              Comment


              • planetmars wrote: View Post
                Would be interesting to know what former NBA players Lowry is comparable too. A guy that doesn't put up gaudy numbers but generally just helps the team win. Maybe Jason Kidd back when he was in Dallas?
                My quick stab at this: Rondo ... w/even the mercurial personality

                The significant missing piece from Lowry's resume to date is the championship. But Rondo still can't shoot the 3 ...but both help their teams win and are hard nosed. Rondo is a bit past his effective date now.

                Comment


                • Puffer wrote: View Post
                  Here we go.

                  https://twitter.com/BlakeMurphyODC/s...433536/photo/1

                  Don't know how I screwed that up. Hate using this stupid tablet. But I love my recliner enough to turn up my nose at the desktop. :-)
                  Great article. Clearly shows how valuable Lowry is. He is a borderline superstar.

                  Comment


                  • planetmars wrote: View Post
                    Would be interesting to know what former NBA players Lowry is comparable too. A guy that doesn't put up gaudy numbers but generally just helps the team win. Maybe Jason Kidd back when he was in Dallas?
                    chancey Billups.. it's always been chancey Billups. they homes too
                    To be the champs you got to beat the champs

                    Comment


                    • planetmars wrote: View Post
                      Would be interesting to know what former NBA players Lowry is comparable too. A guy that doesn't put up gaudy numbers but generally just helps the team win. Maybe Jason Kidd back when he was in Dallas?
                      Kidd and Billups are good ones. Is John Stockton pushing the parameters too much? (BTW John Stockton in today's NBA would be absolutely insane. Could put up 15+ assists in this era and can shoot 45% from deep.) He was one of the game's best but Utah always overshadowed by MJ, they just generated wins tho.

                      Tim Duncan is of course the GOAT in this category. "The Spurs Model" doesn't really seem to exist without him.
                      "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

                      Comment


                      • S.R. wrote: View Post
                        Kidd and Billups are good ones. Is John Stockton pushing the parameters too much? (BTW John Stockton in today's NBA would be absolutely insane. Could put up 15+ assists in this era and can shoot 45% from deep.) He was one of the game's best but Utah always overshadowed by MJ, they just generated wins tho.

                        Tim Duncan is of course the GOAT in this category. "The Spurs Model" doesn't really seem to exist without him.
                        Tim Duncan didnt put up GAUDY numbers per se, but he was consistently 23 pts 12.5 reb in his prime around the turn of the century for 6 , 7 years when scoring was lower. And then remained at 20-11 for a half dozen years after that. I'd say his numbers put him above this qualification
                        It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                        Comment


                        • Mitchell Duong wrote: View Post
                          In regards to AIDS and Y2K. The former would have been a major global disaster, had human beings not done a ton of work in education and health. A lot of money, time and effort was put into fixing code that could be affected to the Y2K bug. In that sense, those predictions are probably happy to be wrong as humans get spurred into action.

                          Pesticides are killing a lot of insects. We're definitely experiencing an extinction event, and climate change is real and another thing that needs to spur humanity into action. (Hopefully, it will and most of the real bad stuff will be avoided).

                          And we are running out of copper... to mine. Its a renewable metal, so realistically, we shouldn't run out.
                          Wait are you telling me 'awareness' does help?

                          Comment


                          • Mitchell Duong wrote: View Post
                            In regards to AIDS and Y2K. The former would have been a major global disaster, had human beings not done a ton of work in education and health. A lot of money, time and effort was put into fixing code that could be affected to the Y2K bug. In that sense, those predictions are probably happy to be wrong as humans get spurred into action.

                            Pesticides are killing a lot of insects. We're definitely experiencing an extinction event, and climate change is real and another thing that needs to spur humanity into action. (Hopefully, it will and most of the real bad stuff will be avoided).

                            And we are running out of copper... to mine. Its a renewable metal, so realistically, we shouldn't run out.
                            This is way off topic but I will say humans are hard wired to be pessimists. "Careful, I think there's a lion in that bush." "Nah it's okay. You are such a worrier. HELP." It's obvious who survives. But for long term distant dangers, "experts" draw straight line trends into the future and don't tend to consider ingenuity, creativity and technological change, because you can't imagine what the next scientific breakthrough will be, or even anticipate the impact of current recent technology. Watson (I think it was him) of IBM imagined there might be a market for 5 computers in the world in the 1960's. When the first brick sized cell phones came out, only a few decades ago, no one imagined 10 year old kids being told to put their smart phones away so the teacher could start class.

                            Comment


                            • How did everything Kyle Lowry turn into a TED talk
                              It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                              Comment


                              • KeonClark wrote: View Post
                                How did everything Kyle Lowry turn into a TED talk
                                Too many days between games
                                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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