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  • G__Deane wrote: View Post

    Agreed.
    I'd reluctantly look at a value 2 year deal to keep him a Raptor but anything longer has the chance to be an albatross contract that handcuffs the team. Successive 1 year deals until he retires should be the goal.
    Thing is, people have been saying some version of this since he was 29 turning 30. However, since then, he went on to have 5 all-star appearances and a championship. When he had his last extension (not this last 1-year one, the one prior to that), people were emphatically complaining and already declaring the last 1 or 2 years of the deal an "albatross". We can probably find it on this very thread if we dig.

    Ironically, that turned out to be the exact window of time when Lowry won an NBA championship as our starting point guard.

    Lowry is a statistical anomaly. Unlike almost every other NBA player, he's infinitely better at age 33 vs. age 23. It won't last forever of course, father time is gonna eventually catch up with everyone, but that "eventually" is very different from player to player. Lowry so far is looking to age like a fine wine. That could change, but even right now in 2020, guys like Bill Simmons (a huge Celtics homer) consider Lowry a top 6 MVP caliber player. I don't think you can bargain your way with players like Lowry. Gotta decide if want him or not, and either pay what needs to be paid, or let him go win somewhere else.
    2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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    • inthepaint wrote: View Post

      Thing is, people have been saying some version of this since he was 29 turning 30. However, since then, he went on to have 5 all-star appearances and a championship. When he had his last extension (not this last 1-year one, the one prior to that), people were emphatically complaining and already declaring the last 1 or 2 years of the deal an "albatross". We can probably find it on this very thread if we dig.

      Ironically, that turned out to be the exact window of time when Lowry won an NBA championship as our starting point guard.

      Lowry is a statistical anomaly. Unlike almost every other NBA player, he's infinitely better at age 33 vs. age 23. It won't last forever of course, father time is gonna eventually catch up with everyone, but that "eventually" is very different from player to player. Lowry so far is looking to age like a fine wine. That could change, but even right now in 2020, guys like Bill Simmons (a huge Celtics homer) consider Lowry a top 6 MVP caliber player. I don't think you can bargain your way with players like Lowry. Gotta decide if want him or not, and either pay what needs to be paid, or let him go win somewhere else.
      It will come down to whether Raptors can land Giannis (or another star) or not. If not then then keeping Lowry around makes no sense other than for the purpose of showing loyalty or having him retire a raptor etc. That should only happen if he takes a big pay cut.

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      • inthepaint wrote: View Post

        Thing is, people have been saying some version of this since he was 29 turning 30. However, since then, he went on to have 5 all-star appearances and a championship. When he had his last extension (not this last 1-year one, the one prior to that), people were emphatically complaining and already declaring the last 1 or 2 years of the deal an "albatross". We can probably find it on this very thread if we dig.

        Ironically, that turned out to be the exact window of time when Lowry won an NBA championship as our starting point guard.

        Lowry is a statistical anomaly. Unlike almost every other NBA player, he's infinitely better at age 33 vs. age 23. It won't last forever of course, father time is gonna eventually catch up with everyone, but that "eventually" is very different from player to player. Lowry so far is looking to age like a fine wine. That could change, but even right now in 2020, guys like Bill Simmons (a huge Celtics homer) consider Lowry a top 6 MVP caliber player. I don't think you can bargain your way with players like Lowry. Gotta decide if want him or not, and either pay what needs to be paid, or let him go win somewhere else.
        Agree with all of this. I just don't want to be the team holding the bag for the last two bad years of a three year deal

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        • G__Deane wrote: View Post

          Agree with all of this. I just don't want to be the team holding the bag for the last two bad years of a three year deal
          That's kind of what usually happens with legacy players, though. The old adage: "Nothing ever ends...... until it ends badly."

          One scenario could be if Lowry requested to play his last years in Philly and we trade him for a nice haul and punk the Sixers just before the wheels come off.

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          • Do we lose out on Giannis if we want to keep Lowry? A big part of me says yes, even if it's sort of dumb. Lowry will play well up until he's 34/35. He's Chris Paul minus all the injuries. Athleticism was never Lowry's strong suit.

            But we'd be fools to think he'll come back for like $10M. He's going to get $25M+. Al Horford got $110M from Philly this past summer. And Kyle's better.

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            • planetmars wrote: View Post
              Do we lose out on Giannis if we want to keep Lowry? A big part of me says yes, even if it's sort of dumb. Lowry will play well up until he's 34/35. He's Chris Paul minus all the injuries. Athleticism was never Lowry's strong suit.

              But we'd be fools to think he'll come back for like $10M. He's going to get $25M+. Al Horford got $110M from Philly this past summer. And Kyle's better.
              If we sign Giannis and then Lowry, it doesn't matter other than tax. We have his bird rights.

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              • planetmars wrote: View Post
                Do we lose out on Giannis if we want to keep Lowry? A big part of me says yes, even if it's sort of dumb. Lowry will play well up until he's 34/35. He's Chris Paul minus all the injuries. Athleticism was never Lowry's strong suit.

                But we'd be fools to think he'll come back for like $10M. He's going to get $25M+. Al Horford got $110M from Philly this past summer. And Kyle's better.
                From Lowry's perspective, if we got Giannis do you think he would want to leave? At his age and having gotten paid rather well from the previous couple of contract I think winning might be what he's focused on.

                From the organization perspective, if we had a real shot at Giannis or any other superstar and Lowry's contract is what stands in the way of signing that player then it's a no brainer.

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                • planetmars wrote: View Post
                  Do we lose out on Giannis if we want to keep Lowry? A big part of me says yes, even if it's sort of dumb. Lowry will play well up until he's 34/35. He's Chris Paul minus all the injuries. Athleticism was never Lowry's strong suit.

                  But we'd be fools to think he'll come back for like $10M. He's going to get $25M+. Al Horford got $110M from Philly this past summer. And Kyle's better.
                  This is premature cause we don’t know what Lowry even wants to do. We also don’t know what kind of deal he has with Masai and company. A lot will depend on what happens next offseason if they can sign a whale in free agency.

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                  • Shredder wrote: View Post

                    If we sign Giannis and then Lowry, it doesn't matter other than tax. We have his bird rights.
                    It matters if Lowry's Cap Hold limits our cap space to an amount less than Giannis' yearly salary. We still need the cap space to sign Giannis regardless of Bird Rights. The Bird Rights allow you to exceed the cap when signing your own FA's, but you need the actual cap space available to sign other teams free agents.

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                    • Shredder wrote: View Post

                      If we sign Giannis and then Lowry, it doesn't matter other than tax. We have his bird rights.
                      Guys, nothing will stop the Giannis signing. If he wants to come here Raps will move and dump whatever they need to get him. Don’t worry about that signing a guy for 4 million more a year or even 10 cause it isn’t going to stop them signing a big name.

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                      • Shredder wrote: View Post

                        If we sign Giannis and then Lowry, it doesn't matter other than tax. We have his bird rights.
                        Each free agent has a "cap hold" which is a virtual dollar amount added to the cap sheet to avoid issues where you sign a free agent and go over the cap to retain your own guys. The cap hold's value is 150% of the previous year's contract (for above average salaries - non rookie). So In Lowry's case that would be $43.7M. Of course he won't sign for that, but that number has to be on our books before hunting for a free agent assuming we want to use those Bird Rights. If we add $43.7M to Siakam, OG, Fred (possibly), Matt.. we won't be able to afford Giannis.

                        What usually happens (like in San Antonio with Ginobili/Duncan and trying to get LMA) was the Spurs would renounce the cap holds to their vets. Like we could with Lowry. The $43.7M comes off the books in this case. Then sign the max free agent. Then sign Lowry back using whatever is left over (assuming it can fit in with the cap space) or an exception (like the bi-annual, mid level, etc).

                        This is why I don't think it is feasible to keep Lowry and go after Giannis. It will be one or the other. Now I could be wrong and maybe Lowry will come back for an under-value contract to finish his career as a Raptor. But he also saw his best bud get traded to the Spurs. So I'm not sure he would be that generous.

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                        • slaw wrote: View Post

                          Guys, nothing will stop the Giannis signing. If he wants to come here Raps will move and dump whatever they need to get him. Don’t worry about that signing a guy for 4 million more a year or even 10 cause it isn’t going to stop them signing a big name.
                          Yes and no. Sure you can sign guys, but you can't overpay to the point where those contracts aren't movable quickly. You can't simply count on teams always having cap space or large expiring contracts exactly at the time you need it. It's those 3+ years, 20M+ contracts that start to get difficult to move, when the player isn't playing up that value or is declining rapidly.
                          Last edited by golden; Wed Mar 11, 2020, 01:25 PM.

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                          • slaw wrote: View Post

                            Guys, nothing will stop the Giannis signing. If he wants to come here Raps will move and dump whatever they need to get him. Don’t worry about that signing a guy for 4 million more a year or even 10 cause it isn’t going to stop them signing a big name.
                            yes exactly. The last thing we should be doing is letting guys walk to preserve cap space. You do that and strike out on Giannis, now all of a sudden your roster doesn't even look attractive to a guy like Pascal or OG, and you run the risk of those guys you've groomed and invested heavily in not being happy and wanting to move on.

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                            • JawsGT wrote: View Post

                              yes exactly. The last thing we should be doing is letting guys walk to preserve cap space. You do that and strike out on Giannis, now all of a sudden your roster doesn't even look attractive to a guy like Pascal or OG, and you run the risk of those guys you've groomed and invested heavily in not being happy and wanting to move on.
                              Ideally yes. We should try to sign Serge and Marc to 1 year deals, and see what we can do with Fred that doesn't hurt the Giannis watch. But if we have guys with contracts that eat into the 2021 cap space we'll have to perform emergency trades and then that usually means attaching first round picks, etc.. since we'd want to dump contracts to teams with cap space, leaving those teams out of the 2021 free agency bonanza.

                              The best case scenario would be that Giannis stays with the Bucks and then demands a trade out a year later. He gets his super max, and gets to play with the team he always wanted to (*cough* Toronto *cough*).

                              Worked for Paul George.

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                              • planetmars wrote: View Post

                                Ideally yes. We should try to sign Serge and Marc to 1 year deals, and see what we can do with Fred that doesn't hurt the Giannis watch. But if we have guys with contracts that eat into the 2021 cap space we'll have to perform emergency trades and then that usually means attaching first round picks, etc.. since we'd want to dump contracts to teams with cap space, leaving those teams out of the 2021 free agency bonanza.

                                The best case scenario would be that Giannis stays with the Bucks and then demands a trade out a year later. He gets his super max, and gets to play with the team he always wanted to (*cough* Toronto *cough*).

                                Worked for Paul George.
                                I do not think there is any chance that Marc is re-signed by the Raptors. In fact, I am not sure he will draw much interest from other teams. His body is breaking down, he is very near the end.

                                For me, Fred is a must-sign long term.
                                Before this season, I didn't think they would try to re-sign Serge, but the way he has played, I am starting to see the benefit of bringing him back.

                                The long term core of this team needs to be built on Siakam, Fred and OG.

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