Everything Kyle Lowry

[S.R.]

Lowry's next contract won't be cheap. He's too good.

[G__Deane]

Each free agent has a "cap hold" which is a virtual dollar amount added to the cap sheet to avoid issues where you sign a free agent and go over the cap to retain your own guys. The cap hold's value is 150% of the previous year's contract (for above average salaries - non rookie). So In Lowry's case that would be $43.7M. Of course he won't sign for that, but that number has to be on our books before hunting for a free agent assuming we want to use those Bird Rights. If we add $43.7M to Siakam, OG, Fred (possibly), Matt.. we won't be able to afford Giannis.

What usually happens (like in San Antonio with Ginobili/Duncan and trying to get LMA) was the Spurs would renounce the cap holds to their vets. Like we could with Lowry. The $43.7M comes off the books in this case. Then sign the max free agent. Then sign Lowry back using whatever is left over (assuming it can fit in with the cap space) or an exception (like the bi-annual, mid level, etc).

This is why I don't think it is feasible to keep Lowry and go after Giannis. It will be one or the other. Now I could be wrong and maybe Lowry will come back for an under-value contract to finish his career as a Raptor. But he also saw his best bud get traded to the Spurs. So I'm not sure he would be that generous.

You don't actually think he holds one once of bad blood over that any more with how it turned out, do you?

[G__Deane]

Ideally yes. We should try to sign Serge and Marc to 1 year deals, and see what we can do with Fred that doesn't hurt the Giannis watch. But if we have guys with contracts that eat into the 2021 cap space we'll have to perform emergency trades and then that usually means attaching first round picks, etc.. since we'd want to dump contracts to teams with cap space, leaving those teams out of the 2021 free agency bonanza.

The best case scenario would be that Giannis stays with the Bucks and then demands a trade out a year later. He gets his super max, and gets to play with the team he always wanted to (*cough* Toronto *cough*).

Worked for Paul George.

But then you have to give up a shit ton to acquire him; also see Paul George.
It's time for Masai to show he can actually SIGN someone else's elite FA, it's all he has left to accomplish.....plus a 2nd chip

[DanH]

I think right now summer 2021 planning looks like this:

Enter the summer with a) enough cap space to sign Giannis, and your young core locked up or under control (FVV, Pascal locked up, OG, Davis RFA with reasonable cap holds) and b) Bird Rights on as many quality players as possible (currently project to have Bird Rights on Lowry, McCaw, Powell when he opts out, and whichever of the centres they convince to take 1 year deals).

Plan A, sign Giannis. If that fails, they have the cap flexibility to go over the cap to keep all those other pieces. And you don't have to renounce a player's Bird Rights until you are actually using that cap space. So they can chase Giannis (and whatever other pieces are available) and only when they are sure are signing a target they value over their incumbent options do they waive those Bird Rights. Meaning that if they strike out and decide the best option available is to keep the team together (which is indeed possible), they still have those Bird Rights and can do so, giving out whatever value and term is needed to keep those players.

The only flaw in the plan is timing. If other teams with cap space abandon the chase on any high end targets and make offers to the Raptors' UFAs before the big names rule the team out, maybe they lose those guys. They'll certainly be hoping their own FA's will hold the door open for them to make that pursuit knowing that they might have a very nice offer waiting if the team strikes out. Or that other teams stay in the race just as long as they do. And hey, if this summer Giannis and maybe others who are projected to be available in 2021 sign their extensions it just means plan B becomes plan A.

[NeedTristanThompson]

But then you have to give up a shit ton to acquire him; also see Paul George.
It's time for Masai to show he can actually SIGN someone else's elite FA, it's all he has left to accomplish.....plus a 2nd chip

Or Giannis could tell them he's gone either way and wants to go to Toronto then we could do a salary matching trade?!

Why would you do that, you ask? BECAUSE KAWHI WILL BE THE FIRST PIECEEEEEEEEEE

[G__Deane]

I think if we have a better than average chance of signing Giannis, it's because of his relationship with Masai as well as the level of team we have here (if we're relatively equal to the Bucks without Giannis, think how good we'd be with Giannis, while simultaneously gutting the greatest conference rival).

I hope that means that Masai already or will have had a pretty good idea if GA's interested or pre-disposed to landing here. So hopefully that means we're not chasing him for a month after FA and not landing him (Kawhi) while other FA are signing elsewhere.

I don't want option B ....

[MixxAOR]

[golden]

I think if we have a better than average chance of signing Giannis, it's because of his relationship with Masai as well as the level of team we have here (if we're relatively equal to the Bucks without Giannis, think how good we'd be with Giannis, while simultaneously gutting the greatest conference rival).

I hope that means that Masai already or will have had a pretty good idea if GA's interested or pre-disposed to landing here. So hopefully that means we're not chasing him for a month after FA and not landing him (Kawhi) while other FA are signing elsewhere.

I don't want option B ....

Before we can even think about Giannis, the first thing we need to know is if Masai is staying here long-term. He needs to be the first domino locked down long-term in the off-season, and Nurse is the second. If one or both of those things don't happen and Masai lets his contract run out, then it's pretty clear that Masai is leaving and he's going to try and take Nurse with him.

I know... the thought of Masai & Nurse leaving is scarier than coronavirus.

[DanH]

Before we can even think about Giannis, the first thing we need to know is if Masai is staying here long-term. He needs to be the first domino locked down long-term in the off-season, and Nurse is the second. If one or both of those things don't happen and Masai lets his contract run out, then it's pretty clear that Masai is leaving and he's going to try and take Nurse with him.

I know... the thought of Masai & Nurse leaving is scarier than coronavirus.

I'm pretty sure that absolutely none of that is remotely clear in the scenario you outline.

[golden]

I'm pretty sure that absolutely none of that is remotely clear in the scenario you outline.

It's crystal clear. If Giannis doesn't sign the supermax, then 2020-21 should be a year-long underground tampering recruiting program, just like the Clippers did with Kawhi. And Nurse should absolutely be extended for at least 5 years before the start of next season, just like Spoelstra was. How the heck are you going to tell Giannis to commit to your team during the recruiting year, if Nurse and Masai aren't committed? And Masai not getting Nurse locked up long-term at the earliest opportunity would be a really bad sign

[DanH]

It's crystal clear. If Giannis doesn't sign the supermax, then 2020-21 should be a year-long underground tampering recruiting program, just like the Clippers did with Kawhi. And Nurse should absolutely be extended for at least 5 years before the start of next season, just like Spoelstra was. How the heck are you going to tell Giannis to commit to your team during the recruiting year, if Nurse and Masai aren't committed? And Masai not getting Nurse locked up long-term at the earliest opportunity would be a really bad sign

And all of that could happen and then Masai and Nurse could both re-up via extensions a week after the earliest opportunity, or next December, or two weeks before free agency. To say that we will have any really bad signs re: Masai leaving because of no extensions for him and Nurse as of one week into this offseason is silly.

Now, they absolutely should lock them up. But both Nurse and Masai may not want to be dealing with that in July when the team is doing work anyway. Sometime in the offseason would be nice. If Masai is busy over the summer overseas, sometime in the fall would be absolutely fine. Same goes for winter and spring. You are of course free to panic in the summer if you please, it just seems silly to me.

[golden]

And all of that could happen and then Masai and Nurse could both re-up via extensions a week after the earliest opportunity, or next December, or two weeks before free agency. To say that we will have any really bad signs re: Masai leaving because of no extensions for him and Nurse as of one week into this offseason is silly.

Now, they absolutely should lock them up. But both Nurse and Masai may not want to be dealing with that in July when the team is doing work anyway. Sometime in the offseason would be nice. If Masai is busy over the summer overseas, sometime in the fall would be absolutely fine. Same goes for winter and spring. You are of course free to panic in the summer if you please, it just seems silly to me.

Not 2 weeks into the off-season (don't twist it), but the extension should happen 'during' the off-season and as early as possible before the beginning of next season. Spoelstra got his long extension during the pre-season, IIRC and Lowry got his big 1-year deal around the same time. These type of things shouldn't drag into next year's regular season. Having to recruit players to Toronto, Masai knows this better than anybody. He made it a point to shutdown the Wizards rumors when they were negotiating with Kawhi. If Masai isn't locked up heading into next season, that's an ominous sign. And if he's not busting his ass to get Nurse extended, ala Spoestra, that's an even worse sign. Time will tell.

[bertarapsfan]

Speaking of contracts is the league going to be in some sort of limbo with this years class of F.As? I wonder if the wording in contracts say that they expire at the end of the season of if they expire July 1st? If they extend the season into August what will happen to guys that are technically free agents?

[DanH]

Speaking of contracts is the league going to be in some sort of limbo with this years class of F.As? I wonder if the wording in contracts say that they expire at the end of the season of if they expire July 1st? If they extend the season into August what will happen to guys that are technically free agents?

Technically, NBA contracts are worded as years of service starting September 1st, for some reason. The expiry in June is based on the league calendar. The league can move the calendar with buy-in from the NBAPA, which is clearly the current plan.

[007]

Speaking of contracts is the league going to be in some sort of limbo with this years class of F.As? I wonder if the wording in contracts say that they expire at the end of the season of if they expire July 1st? If they extend the season into August what will happen to guys that are technically free agents?

There is no precedent for what is happening/what will happen NBA-speaking. I imagine the league and the NBAPA will be constantly negotiating throughout however long this crisis lasts