Everything Kyle Lowry

[c-troop]

If he walks for nothing, we chase a quality RFA and we will be fine. But if he wants to go to a winning team, there is limited choice for him unless he plays by the sign and trade rules - in which case the Raptors can set the price. And if other teams once again prove they don't properly value Lowry such that they'll pay him appropriately and also send enough value to allow themselves the ability to make such an offer via sign and trade, the Raptors will (once again) be all too happy to keep him (even if both sides agree it is with the intent to explore a contending landing spot come the deadline if the Raptors are struggling again).

My only gripe with that approach is every year longer that they decide to hang onto Lowry he eats up cap space, loses value if we are losing, the young core gets older, and the hypothetical potential future draft picks that we could've had are not part of the team. He also takes away minutes and shots from developing players.

If we chase a quality RFA this year, is that really better than eating a few bad contracts short term for picks and then chasing a quality RFA the year the bad contracts are up? I see it as a missed opportunity because treadmilling with Lowry for nothing (with intentions of trading him) is worse than treadmilling and picking up lottery picks if nothing ends up happening. Forget all this "we are better with him" hype. We could be getting better without him especially when he's not the future of this team anymore.

Edit: can't go back in time tho, so I guess it's RFA or S&T or treadmill with intentions.

[DanH]

You are overvaluing a depreciating asset IMO.

The best-case scenario, of procuring a decent prospect and a pick last year didn't happen.
Then again, who's playing nice when your team is fresh off a championship?
His ceiling might've been picking up some bad contracts with 1st's attached for a playoff push or cap relief.

"Fine, we keep Lowry and we're already way better off than chasing other free agents" assume's Lowry doesn't want to jump off the sinking ship and doesn't address what the team needs. And last year's underwhelming season hurt his value even more for a sign and trade.

If he walks for nothing Masai will be kicking himself for not selling high when he had the chance.

If he walks for nothing, we chase a quality RFA and we will be fine. But if he wants to go to a winning team, there is limited choice for him unless he plays by the sign and trade rules - in which case the Raptors can set the price. And if other teams once again prove they don't properly value Lowry such that they'll pay him appropriately and also send enough value to allow themselves the ability to make such an offer via sign and trade, the Raptors will (once again) be all too happy to keep him (even if both sides agree it is with the intent to explore a contending landing spot come the deadline if the Raptors are struggling again).

[c-troop]

Nobody knows what was offered. All we had was rumors, most of them saying the asking price was high, as it should have been, as Lowry is a starting point guard on a champioship team that will elevate whole rosters. The only knock on his value is the age. There were no rumors of "ghosts on bad contracts" being offered, and if they were, they would have certainly been turned down by the Raptors (and not the other way around). You don't give up Lowry for peanuts.

The point remains. Lowry's value to the Raptors is a decent prospect and a pick. If win-now teams are smart they'll see that too, just look at CP3 in Phoenix. If they don't, fine, we keep Lowry and we're already way better off than chasing other free agents, as Lowry is the best 2021 UFA to begin with.

You are overvaluing a depreciating asset IMO.

The best-case scenario, of procuring a decent prospect and a pick last year didn't happen.
Then again, who's playing nice when your team is fresh off a championship?
His ceiling might've been picking up some bad contracts with 1st's attached for a playoff push or cap relief.

"Fine, we keep Lowry and we're already way better off than chasing other free agents" assume's Lowry doesn't want to jump off the sinking ship and doesn't address what the team needs. And last year's underwhelming season hurt his value even more for a sign and trade.

If he walks for nothing Masai will be kicking himself for not selling high when he had the chance.

[DanH]

Now, the Raptors could sign and trade Lowry to the Pels, in the same transaction the Pels could sign and trade Lonzo and trade Hayes to the Mavs, and someone would send something to the Raptors to convince them to do the signing part that only they can do in a sign and trade. That would be fine.

[DanH]

Not a CBA expert or capologist, but I'm wondering if a 3rd team with cap-space (e.g. Knicks, Mavs, Spurs,...) could facilitate Lowry deals and free up cap space in exchange for assets/picks.

Let's say the Pels want Lowry and Mavs want Lonzo Ball. Mavs could have as much as 35M in cap-space if Richardson opts out. Could the Mavs sign Lowry into cap space and then immediately trade him for a Pels re-signed Lonzo + Hayes, for example?

No, only a team with a player's rights can sign and trade them.

[golden]

As Dan pointed out this is not comparable at all to Miami getting their big 3, they had cap space. The teams that want Lowry and Lowry wants to play for do not have cap space. That gives us massive power in Lowry decision. If he wants to go to Philly his agent is going to be hammering them to give us what we want to make the deal happen, because without us it doesn't happen. I don't see any scenario where we don't get at least 1st back in a Lowry S&T. The only way we don't is if we have a very good prospect on a rookie deal coming back.

Not a CBA expert or capologist, but I'm wondering if a 3rd team with cap-space (e.g. Knicks, Mavs, Spurs,...) could facilitate Lowry deals and free up cap space in exchange for assets/picks.

Let's say the Pels want Lowry and Mavs want Lonzo Ball. Mavs could have as much as 35M in cap-space if Richardson opts out. Could the Mavs sign Lowry into cap space and then immediately trade him for a Pels re-signed Lonzo + Hayes, for example?

[DanH]

I suspect the reality is that the Raps don't have as much leverage as you would think they do even in this scenario. If Lowry says he only wants to go to one team then Toronto will make it happen. Can you imagine unhappy Lowry? LOL. Would be a shit show. Plus, you're going to piss off one of the most powerful agents in the game in Mark Bartlestein? Nah, not gonna happen. Plus, teams aren't going to give up much for Lowry. I know that he is beloved in Raptorland and underappreciated around the league but the expectations for trades are outsized.

The Raptors will not prioritize making Lowry happy over running their team. They'll help out if they can and if the other team makes it make sense. But between taking a garbage return and just using cap space to actually add to the team, they will choose the latter.

[slaw]

As Dan pointed out this is not comparable at all to Miami getting their big 3, they had cap space. The teams that want Lowry and Lowry wants to play for do not have cap space. That gives us massive power in Lowry decision. If he wants to go to Philly his agent is going to be hammering them to give us what we want to make the deal happen, because without us it doesn't happen. I don't see any scenario where we don't get at least 1st back in a Lowry S&T. The only way we don't is if we have a very good prospect on a rookie deal coming back.

I suspect the reality is that the Raps don't have as much leverage as you would think they do even in this scenario. If Lowry says he only wants to go to one team then Toronto will make it happen. Can you imagine unhappy Lowry? LOL. Would be a shit show. Plus, you're going to piss off one of the most powerful agents in the game in Mark Bartlestein? Nah, not gonna happen. Plus, teams aren't going to give up much for Lowry. I know that he is beloved in Raptorland and underappreciated around the league but the expectations for trades are outsized.

[Primer]

I don’t get why people are thinking we have any power in Lowry’s decision.

If he wants to go to capped team than we may be asked to do a sign and trade. Generally the return is not that great, and you have to take back salary with an asset.

Teams also can clear cap space to other teams to facilitate the signing of Lowry. So they don’t have to involve the previous team.

When Miami signed Lebron, they gave Miami 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a pick swap. That’s Prime Lebron, and the Cavs were absolutely pissed and didn’t want to involved in a sign and trade. The Raptors got nothing for Bosh.

Phili would likely need to do a sign and trade but it would most likely be a first and filler to clear their cap space, although Green is now a free agent so they don’t have him to include. I can see us maybe being in a three way trade for Simmons. Where Simmons goes to team A, Phili getting Lowry, and team A gives the Phili that majority of the assets and we get a little slice.

if we get a first we would be lucky.

As Dan pointed out this is not comparable at all to Miami getting their big 3, they had cap space. The teams that want Lowry and Lowry wants to play for do not have cap space. That gives us massive power in Lowry decision. If he wants to go to Philly his agent is going to be hammering them to give us what we want to make the deal happen, because without us it doesn't happen. I don't see any scenario where we don't get at least 1st back in a Lowry S&T. The only way we don't is if we have a very good prospect on a rookie deal coming back.

[inthepaint]

Highlighting point #2:

Last year at the trade deadline right before we shuffled norm off to portland...

Do you really think teams were offering a late first and a nice prospect for lowry?

Is a sign and trade deal actually more valuable than his expiring contract was?

Cause we couldn't trade Lowry for a late first and "ghosts" on bad contracts ...

Nobody knows what was offered. All we had was rumors, most of them saying the asking price was high, as it should have been, as Lowry is a starting point guard on a champioship team that will elevate whole rosters. The only knock on his value is the age. There were no rumors of "ghosts on bad contracts" being offered, and if they were, they would have certainly been turned down by the Raptors (and not the other way around). You don't give up Lowry for peanuts.

The point remains. Lowry's value to the Raptors is a decent prospect and a pick. If win-now teams are smart they'll see that too, just look at CP3 in Phoenix. If they don't, fine, we keep Lowry and we're already way better off than chasing other free agents, as Lowry is the best 2021 UFA to begin with.

[DanH]

If it means taking back Bledsoe you walk away. Adam’s has one year left on his contract and actually fills a need for us. So maybe you take that on.

I can’t really see Lowry wanting to go to NO anyways.

Bledsoe only has about 4M guaranteed after this coming year, not a significantly different return compared to Adams. Now, I agree, the Raptors would ask for more compensation if they are taking Bledsoe than if they are taking Adams, because it does fill a need, though I'm not sure how much weight they'll put into that.

[saints91]

If it means taking back Bledsoe you walk away. Adam’s has one year left on his contract and actually fills a need for us. So maybe you take that on.

I can’t really see Lowry wanting to go to NO anyways.

[DanH]

I don’t get why people are thinking we have any power in Lowry’s decision.

If he wants to go to capped team than we may be asked to do a sign and trade. Generally the return is not that great, and you have to take back salary with an asset.

Teams also can clear cap space to other teams to facilitate the signing of Lowry. So they don’t have to involve the previous team.

When Miami signed Lebron, they gave Miami 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a pick swap. That’s Prime Lebron, and the Cavs were absolutely pissed and didn’t want to involved in a sign and trade. The Raptors got nothing for Bosh.

Phili would likely need to do a sign and trade but it would most likely be a first and filler to clear their cap space, although Green is now a free agent so they don’t have him to include. I can see us maybe being in a three way trade for Simmons. Where Simmons goes to team A, Phili getting Lowry, and team A gives the Phili that majority of the assets and we get a little slice.

if we get a first we would be lucky.

The Raptors got nothing for Bosh? News to me.

In both the Heat scenarios, they straight up had the cap room to sign them - heck, they were traded into cap space, with no real ballast going back, hence the lower return. The players wanted a 5th year, so there was a little leverage, hence a few picks going back, but that scenario is always one where there is little value in a SnT. Heck, with the updated rules, there is less value in that sort of sign and trade now.

But a team like Philly has NO leverage besides any good will the Raptors have towards Lowry. They have no reasonable path to clearing cap room to sign Lowry outright. They absolutely need the Raptors to play ball. Any team far over the cap (ie, most contenders) will be in the same boat. Perfectly reasonable to expect a decent return in such a scenario. And there are other teams (like the Pelicans) who are closer to a cap room scenario who would still value the sign and trade for the additional flexibility it gives them, and would be willing to part with assets if there is salary ballast (say, Bledsoe or Adams) coming our way.

[saints91]

I don’t get why people are thinking we have any power in Lowry’s decision.

If he wants to go to capped team than we may be asked to do a sign and trade. Generally the return is not that great, and you have to take back salary with an asset.

Teams also can clear cap space to other teams to facilitate the signing of Lowry. So they don’t have to involve the previous team.

When Miami signed Lebron, they gave Miami 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a pick swap. That’s Prime Lebron, and the Cavs were absolutely pissed and didn’t want to involved in a sign and trade. The Raptors got nothing for Bosh.

Phili would likely need to do a sign and trade but it would most likely be a first and filler to clear their cap space, although Green is now a free agent so they don’t have him to include. I can see us maybe being in a three way trade for Simmons. Where Simmons goes to team A, Phili getting Lowry, and team A gives the Phili that majority of the assets and we get a little slice.

if we get a first we would be lucky.

[c-troop]

My order of preferred Lowry outcomes this offseason (best to worst):

1. He's the ballast on a trade that includes other assets from us that ends up netting us a high impact player (eg Beal, Dame, KAT), possibly involving a 3-team Simmons trade
2. We get a late first and a nice prospect on a SnT (eg Lonzo, Markkenen, Thybulle, Robinson)
3. We sign him, he doesn't get traded, and walks into the sunset here, while we play our double 5'10" wingspan backcourt heavy minutes till he's 38.
4. He walks, and we try to convince ourselves that is totally fine to lose the 5th rotation champion in 3 years for nothing, so we have the cap space to go chase ghosts in free agency

Hopefully it's one the first 2.

Highlighting point #2:

Last year at the trade deadline right before we shuffled norm off to portland...

Do you really think teams were offering a late first and a nice prospect for lowry?

Is a sign and trade deal actually more valuable than his expiring contract was?

Cause we couldn't trade Lowry for a late first and "ghosts" on bad contracts ...