Everything Kyle Lowry

[stooley]

Came across a little gem on ESPN, couldn't find a real Kyle Lowry thread, so here it is.

ESPN ranks Kyle Lowry as the 13th best free agent this year, although they do count a bunch of guys who may not opt out (Melo, Lebron, Bosh, etc.).

Here's the article (insider) :

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...ee-agents-2014

They peg Lowry's Suggested AAV (average annual value) as $8.5 million for 3 years, which would make me thrilled.

Here's the write up:

Along with Stephenson, arguably no player has increased his market value this season as much as Lowry did, playing at what should have been considered an All-Star level and being the main driving force behind Toronto's ascension into the playoff picture (although both of those facts should be tempered by the reality that he's done it in the Eastern Conference). His caustic personality hasn't gone away, and he is 27, so he doesn't get the full bump to an eight-figure AAV.

Lowry's shooting troubles of late may actually help that very team friendly deal come to fruition.

[bertarapsfan]

[DanH]

Speaking of which.... he's back!

[DanH]

Powell usually falls off a cliff for awhile when they change his role - especially going from starter to bench. This will be a good test to see if he's matured.

Lowry being such a boon for the bench should help with that transition - if they sub Lowry out early to have him play the start of the 2nd (which they should), they can bring Norm in to play with the starters in his place, where he had some success of late, and that should help him ease into the game in the role he's been in, and hopefully that carries over to any bench minutes he plays (ideally with Lowry who is the tide that lifts all boats).

[Puffer]

Powell usually falls off a cliff for awhile when they change his role - especially going from starter to bench. This will be a good test to see if he's matured.

Took the words out of my mouth. The magic question surrounding Norm has always been "consistency?"

[golden]

Even with a full roster, the bench could be incredible. The minutes FVV has been spending trying to keep the bench afloat himself can be taken on by Lowry instead, with Serge as Lowry's scoring partner, and the Davis-Norm-RHJ (or even Davis-RHJ-Boucher) bench group bringing the defensive energy. While the Pascal bench unit can now add FVV to play shooter, with Davis, RHJ, Serge playing their chaos inducing defensive games. Serge means we never fall into the trap of using RHJ in the post or PnR, leaving him in the dunker or cutting, while the guards spot up and Pascal rips benches to shreds. It's already been good but FVV there could make it lethal.

And yes, the starters should be incredible, now that Lowry and FVV don't have to play 40 MPG with Davis and Powell in the guard rotation. Plus, with the starters showing they can work with Powell in for Lowry, it becomes even easier to sub him out early and stagger him in with the bench in the 2nd Q.

Powell usually falls off a cliff for awhile when they change his role - especially going from starter to bench. This will be a good test to see if he's matured.

[DanH]

Yeah the real impact will be Kyle replacing Norm in the starting lineup and that will be an easy net positive. Lowry and FVV are both actually very good at guarding guys a size up and Nurse throws around lots of random zones and they switch everything, so it's a bit harder for teams to take advantage of the Raptors' 6 foot guards I think - you just rarely see it. Philly last year didn't abuse the Raps offensively, it was Philly's defence that nobody but Kawhi seemed able to cope with. But I really think Philly's a half step worse now than last year's roster.

The bench will be changed with everybody back, with Ibaka and Norm being the 6th and 7th men. That means next to no minutes for Boucher and probably significantly reduced minutes for Terrence Davis. The bench will lose its defensive hustle/swarm/forced turnovers identity but on the other hand will be more well rounded and should be better able to score - the previous unit was very good but definitely prone to offensive dry spells and had to have the energy at 110% at all times to be effective.

But these problems all assume 100% good health, which you almost never have. These depth guys are going to be needed again and 1-2 of them may well play a significant role in the playoffs.

As was mentioned, hopefully Lowry/Fred/Siakam minutes are paced a little better with the full team healthy. Especially Lowry, get him to the playoffs at 100%.

Even with a full roster, the bench could be incredible. The minutes FVV has been spending trying to keep the bench afloat himself can be taken on by Lowry instead, with Serge as Lowry's scoring partner, and the Davis-Norm-RHJ (or even Davis-RHJ-Boucher) bench group bringing the defensive energy. While the Pascal bench unit can now add FVV to play shooter, with Davis, RHJ, Serge playing their chaos inducing defensive games. Serge means we never fall into the trap of using RHJ in the post or PnR, leaving him in the dunker or cutting, while the guards spot up and Pascal rips benches to shreds. It's already been good but FVV there could make it lethal.

And yes, the starters should be incredible, now that Lowry and FVV don't have to play 40 MPG with Davis and Powell in the guard rotation. Plus, with the starters showing they can work with Powell in for Lowry, it becomes even easier to sub him out early and stagger him in with the bench in the 2nd Q.

[S.R.]

Norm has a +4 on-court net rating on the season. +3.5 in the past 10 games. With or without Lowry here Norm is not likely to be a big driver of success.

And Fred's role changing is a) a good thing and b) no guarantee, they want him to stretch into that role, and thankfully Lowry can play off ball too so no real concerns there. If anything Lowry might be able to save Fred from those disastrous stretches where he's out there with the bench.

Yeah the real impact will be Kyle replacing Norm in the starting lineup and that will be an easy net positive. Lowry and FVV are both actually very good at guarding guys a size up and Nurse throws around lots of random zones and they switch everything, so it's a bit harder for teams to take advantage of the Raptors' 6 foot guards I think - you just rarely see it. Philly last year didn't abuse the Raps offensively, it was Philly's defence that nobody but Kawhi seemed able to cope with. But I really think Philly's a half step worse now than last year's roster.

The bench will be changed with everybody back, with Ibaka and Norm being the 6th and 7th men. That means next to no minutes for Boucher and probably significantly reduced minutes for Terrence Davis. The bench will lose its defensive hustle/swarm/forced turnovers identity but on the other hand will be more well rounded and should be better able to score - the previous unit was very good but definitely prone to offensive dry spells and had to have the energy at 110% at all times to be effective.

But these problems all assume 100% good health, which you almost never have. These depth guys are going to be needed again and 1-2 of them may well play a significant role in the playoffs.

As was mentioned, hopefully Lowry/Fred/Siakam minutes are paced a little better with the full team healthy. Especially Lowry, get him to the playoffs at 100%.

[golden]

Historically there is little to support that theory. Lowry even at half speed is a more impactful defender than Norm.

Any slippage would likely, IMO, come from a) Serge's return to the lineup, he's always been over-hyped as a defender, and b) a harder upcoming schedule.

But also, any defensive slippage should be more than made up for on offence. Will be nice to get Siakam and FVV some easier offence.

Can't deny there will be at least a couple of extra touchdown passes to Pascal per game. OG will also benefit greatly from another high IQ playmaker on the floor. He seems to have tailed off a wee bit since Lowry went down.

[DanH]

I don't have any real reason to believe he won't but I hope he just slides back in seamlessly without dropping the team momentum since Norm and Fred's role will change again. You can't ever be net-negative for having Lowry back but we'll likely see more of bad Norm again

After hearing Kyle this morning, I had a bad flashback to him saying "I don't need to adjust to the team, they have to adjust to me ...."

Norm has a +4 on-court net rating on the season. +3.5 in the past 10 games. With or without Lowry here Norm is not likely to be a big driver of success.

And Fred's role changing is a) a good thing and b) no guarantee, they want him to stretch into that role, and thankfully Lowry can play off ball too so no real concerns there. If anything Lowry might be able to save Fred from those disastrous stretches where he's out there with the bench.

[Zak24gege]

The margin between winning and losing is so slim, any of the top tier team's have a shot at the chip this year.

[DanH]

Defensively, we could see some slippage.

Historically there is little to support that theory. Lowry even at half speed is a more impactful defender than Norm.

Any slippage would likely, IMO, come from a) Serge's return to the lineup, he's always been over-hyped as a defender, and b) a harder upcoming schedule.

But also, any defensive slippage should be more than made up for on offence. Will be nice to get Siakam and FVV some easier offence.

[G__Deane]

Kyle Lowry is basically Mark Messier, that's a great comp actually

Kyle should guarantee a W lol

[G__Deane]

More importantly; even more motivation to keep Lowry's minutes down makes unable to think about how good this team could be come playoff time.

I previously thought 2nd round exit seemed most likely but now? I'm starting to think bigger.

An argument could be made for any of the Raps, Sixers, Bucks or Chowders being out in the first round or making the ECF/Finals.
Just the way it is now.

[G__Deane]

I can't even envision how good this team will be once Lowry is back.

I don't have any real reason to believe he won't but I hope he just slides back in seamlessly without dropping the team momentum since Norm and Fred's role will change again. You can't ever be net-negative for having Lowry back but we'll likely see more of bad Norm again

After hearing Kyle this morning, I had a bad flashback to him saying "I don't need to adjust to the team, they have to adjust to me ...."