Lowry has arrived: a long ass Woj article....

[white men can't jump]

The Rockets have approx 63m on the books next year. If they get rid of their non guaranteed contracts (except for Beverly) and accounting for their draft pick, their salary obligations would total to 61m. Next year's cap it still yet to be determined, but it's being predicted to be 62.9m. Thus, if they get rid of Lin and Garcia, and accounting for cap holds, they should have approx 10-10.5m in cap room.

The 63M is with the spread out cap-hit of Lin and Asik's contracts. The actual salary total would be higher in terms of money owed. I don't know how it works in a trade (whether values have to match salary owed or cap hit), but either way it doesn't change much for them, *but could change a lot in terms of trade market for either player. I know the cap hit for any new team would be the lower number, but would they have to send 15ish M in money/assets or 8.5ish? **Does anyone know how that works in a trade, when salary owed and cap-hit are different?

That's an interesting projection for the cap. That would be a pretty significant jump and would help them a lot, and be the biggest difference-maker for them. That's what would allow them to only trade one. But if things don't change much, they'd pretty much have to trade both.

[white men can't jump]

Well, they'd get Kyle Lowry in that scenario, so it's more than solid value.

But that doesn't negate giving up assets beyond just dollars for an UFA. And they'd be a capped out team for awhile (especially if/when they re-sign Parsons) with possibly less draft assets if they have to send some away to clear space for Lowry.

[white men can't jump]

The Rockets have approx $63m on the books next year. If they get rid of their non guaranteed contracts (except for Beverly), and accounting for their draft pick (25th overall right now), their salary obligations would total $61m. Next year's cap is still yet to be determined, but it's being predicted to be $62.9m. Thus, if they get rid of Lin and Garcia, and accounting for cap holds, they should have approx $10-10.5m in cap room. Of course, I was assuming the cap would go up. If it stays flat, you're right, they will have a tough time carving out enough cap space.

EDIT: It looks like you were using Lin/Asik's actual salary. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe their "cap number" is $8.3m, and used for calculating cap space, trades, etc. Usually actual salary = cap number, but the contracts Lin/Asik signed are treated differently. Again, I'm not 100% sure of this.

I don't know if the cap-hit is what's used in trades. It would make sense, but I'd like some clarification if anyone knows.

**Looked it up on cbafaq....It appears it is the cap number, and not dollars owed.

Still though, the biggest factor that would work in Houston's favour would be if the cap does in fact go up to the 62+ million level. If it doesn't move much from it's current level, they'll have a pretty hard time.

[Jack_Bauer]

The 63M is with the spread out cap-hit of Lin and Asik's contracts. The actual salary total would be higher in terms of money owed. I don't know how it works in a trade (whether values have to match salary owed or cap hit), but either way it doesn't change much for them, *but could change a lot in terms of trade market for either player. I know the cap hit for any new team would be the lower number, but would they have to send 15ish M in money/assets or 8.5ish? **Does anyone know how that works in a trade, when salary owed and cap-hit are different?

That's an interesting projection for the cap. That would be a pretty significant jump and would help them a lot, and be the biggest difference-maker for them. That's what would allow them to only trade one. But if things don't change much, they'd pretty much have to trade both.

Agree, I was assuming the cap would go up to $62.9 in my initial post. You're right, if it doesn't go up that much, it is unlikely the Rockets can land Lowry outside of a S&T.

I did a quick google, and it appears that the $8.3 figure is used for calculating outgoing salary for any trades.

http://www.shamsports.com/2013/07/om...-contract.html

[white men can't jump]

Agree, I was assuming the cap would go up to over 60m in my initial post. You're right, if it doesn't go up that much, it is unlikely the Rockets can land Lowry outside of a S&T.

I did a quick google, and it appears that the $8.3 figure is cased for calculating outgoing salary for any trades.

http://www.shamsports.com/2013/07/om...-contract.html

Alright, so we're pretty much on the same page. A lot depends on the salary projections (which I hadn't seen before) being accurate.

[BobLoblaw]

But that doesn't negate giving up assets beyond just dollars for an UFA. And they'd be a capped out team for awhile (especially if/when they re-sign Parsons) with possibly less draft assets if they have to send some away to clear space for Lowry.

I don't see why not. He's a better player, better fit, most likely a better asset unless they give him a max contract or something. Why not swap something worse for something better? Yes, it would be even cooler if they got Kyle Lowry completely for free and got to keep Asik/Lin. But getting him instead of Asik/Lin would be pretty cool too.

Re cap space, it's nice, but you have to use it too. They can't send cap space onto the floor in the NBA playoffs. The way Lowry is playing, he seems like a great option to use some of that cap space.

[white men can't jump]

I don't see why not. He's a better player, better fit, most likely a better asset unless they give him a max contract or something. Why not swap something worse for something better? Yes, it would be even cooler if they got Kyle Lowry completely for free and got to keep Asik/Lin. But getting him instead of Asik/Lin would be pretty cool too.

Re cap space, it's nice, but you have to use it too. They can't send cap space onto the floor in the NBA playoffs. The way Lowry is playing, he seems like a great option to use some of that cap space.

But they don't have any cap space. THey would have to trade Asik and/or Lin for nothing just to get that. In which case you're getting no asset back for either player, and possibly giving up attached assets just to be able to take nothing back. Yes, on paper, the balance looks like Asik and/or Lin for Lowry, but that isn't quite the case. Since they are already a capped out team, trade chips are very important assets for them. And looking at contracts, Asik and Lin are their only pieces which they can use to bring in another asset or two. Any time you have to dump potential assets, you're not exactly maximizing their value. And there's no way a team takes back Lin without more (like picks) attached.

The ultimate for them would be to dump only Lin and be able to get Lowry, and then use Asik to get one or two actually useful pieces to complement their new-look roster. Thus they'd be getting Lowry, and another rotation player or two, or possibly a draft pick (Asik could be worth a late 1st or a couple of 2nd rounders) for Lin and Asik, rather than dumping both just to pursue Lowry.

As I was going back and forth with @Jack Bauer, they really better hope salary projections turn out to be accurate. If it goes up high enough and they can just dump Lin and maybe Garcia to make Lowry a competitive offer, that'd be an ideal scenario. They then can keep Asik until they find a decent trade for him (obviously with a lower asking price than the nutbars demands Morey had earlier this season).

**I'm not suggesting they wouldn't take the dump Lin and Asik route if they had to, but I don't believe they'd jump at it like an excellent opportunity. They'd have no more tradable assets, and possibly have to give up a pick or picks to do it. Hardly optimal asset management.

[stooley]

Do the rockets have a TPE? If not, how could they dump Asik and Lin for nothing, unless it's for a player like Salmons with a buy out option?

Don't nba trade rules require some kind of salary matching?

[white men can't jump]

Do the rockets have a TPE? If not, how could they dump Asik and Lin for nothing, unless it's for a player like Salmons with a buy out option?

Don't nba trade rules require some kind of salary matching?

You're kind of right. The only kind of "capspace" they could get would be a TPE. They could trade Asik and/or Lin to a team with space for a TPE....but that's useless to them in a FA pursuit. So yeah, the only option left is to get non-guaranteed deals they can waive. I don't know what the non-guaranteed landscape is like in terms of teams that could accommodate them.

Otherwise, they need a S&T like GSW-Utah-Denver....which would require Toronto's cooperation. And that deal really fleeced GSW in a way. THey gave up 2 1st rounders and 2 2nd rounders, along with Biedrins, Jefferson and Rush's expiring deals to be able to get Iggy in a sign and trade. Utah facilitated it by having abundant capspace, and a plan to tank, so that they didn't care about absorbing crappy players for a year, and got lots of picks out of it. Denver came out with very little from it (I think just a 2nd rounder).

[BobLoblaw]

But they don't have any cap space. THey would have to trade Asik and/or Lin for nothing just to get that. In which case you're getting no asset back for either player, and possibly giving up attached assets just to be able to take nothing back. Yes, on paper, the balance looks like Asik and/or Lin for Lowry, but that isn't quite the case. Since they are already a capped out team, trade chips are very important assets for them. And looking at contracts, Asik and Lin are their only pieces which they can use to bring in another asset or two. Any time you have to dump potential assets, you're not exactly maximizing their value. And there's no way a team takes back Lin without more (like picks) attached.

The ultimate for them would be to dump only Lin and be able to get Lowry, and then use Asik to get one or two actually useful pieces to complement their new-look roster. Thus they'd be getting Lowry, and another rotation player or two, or possibly a draft pick (Asik could be worth a late 1st or a couple of 2nd rounders) for Lin and Asik, rather than dumping both just to pursue Lowry.

As I was going back and forth with @Jack Bauer, they really better hope salary projections turn out to be accurate. If it goes up high enough and they can just dump Lin and maybe Garcia to make Lowry a competitive offer, that'd be an ideal scenario. They then can keep Asik until they find a decent trade for him (obviously with a lower asking price than the nutbars demands Morey had earlier this season).

It looks like that's the case to me. They lose Asik and Lin, they get Lowry.

If this was a trade, lets say you get Lowry on 4/40 or similar contract, you give away Asik/Lin on rental contracts that are 30 mil combined in actual money, that's a trade you do every single time IMO. Even if your intention is to flip Lowry later, you still do it. You win it in assets. Maybe if it's Lowry on max deal or something, you stop to think.

[Jack_Bauer]

Do the rockets have a TPE? If not, how could they dump Asik and Lin for nothing, unless it's for a player like Salmons with a buy out option?

Don't nba trade rules require some kind of salary matching?

I think what he's suggesting is trading Lin/Asik to a team that has the necessary cap space to absorb their salary/salaries entirely (e.g., How GSW made room for Iggy last summer). However, trading for a non-guaranteed contract, such as Salmons, would also work, but I don't think there are many that work.

**I'm not suggesting they wouldn't take the dump Lin and Asik route if they had to, but I don't believe they'd jump at it like an excellent opportunity. They'd have no more tradable assets, and possibly have to give up a pick or picks to do it. Hardly optimal asset management.

I agree, and I've long thought the Rockets would try to make a serious run at Bosh (doubtful since he will likely command a max deal) or Love next summer. They made a serious run at Bosh in 2010 (I think), and seem to have searching for a stretch four to pair with Dwight. It was surprising to read that they have interest in Lowry. I thought they were happy starting Beverly and having Lin provide scoring off the bench. Regardless, they will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this summer (and next).

[BobLoblaw]

Do the rockets have a TPE? If not, how could they dump Asik and Lin for nothing, unless it's for a player like Salmons with a buy out option?

Don't nba trade rules require some kind of salary matching?

No, you can even trade Kobe Bryant and his 25 mil salary for a 2nd round pick, if the other team has the cap space.

[white men can't jump]

No, you can even trade Kobe Bryant and his 25 mil salary for a 2nd round pick, if the other team has the cap space.

Yeah, but you don't get capspace from it, you get a TPE.

[white men can't jump]

I think what he's suggesting is trading Lin/Asik to a team that has the necessary cap space to absorb their salary/salaries entirely (e.g., How GSW made room for Iggy last summer). However, trading for a non-guaranteed contract, such as Salmons, would also work, but I don't think there are many that work.

Yeah, but as I went over, that wasn't a trade that gave them capspace, it was just a complex 3-way S&T that freed up room for Iggy. Basically it was like getting a TPE for Biedrins-Rush-Jefferson, and immediately using most of that for Iggy.

*Although it was because they wanted to offer Iggy 5 years. They could've just tried to sign him outright if they were offering 4 years.

But that adds a dimension in Toronto's favour. Having Lowry's bird rights means they can offer more money and years to Lowry. Other teams are at a slight disadvantage, and espeically teams like Houston that'd have to scramble to find the space to make it work by dumping a player(s).

[BobLoblaw]

I think what he's suggesting is trading Lin/Asik to a team that has the necessary cap space to absorb their salary/salaries entirely (e.g., How GSW made room for Iggy last summer). However, trading for a non-guaranteed contract, such as Salmons, would also work, but I don't think there are many that work.



I agree, and I've long thought the Rockets would try to make a serious run at Bosh (doubtful since he will likely command a max deal) or Love next summer. They made a serious run at Bosh in 2010 (I think), and seem to have searching for a stretch four to pair with Dwight. It was surprising to read that they have interest in Lowry. I thought they were happy starting Beverly and having Lin provide scoring off the bench. Regardless, they will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this summer (and next).

Yep, and even Salmons doesn't really work because you have to cut him before July 1st, otherwise he becomes guaranteed. If Salmons is traded, he will be traded around draft time, not once free agency starts.