Confessions of a TANKER

[Pele]

Axel has said most of what I think. Tanking is and was a long-term plan. The only addition I would make is that I think you have to accurately separate the two scenarios.

A tank scenario would still have meant keeping Ross and JV, but they would have gotten more minutes and more FGAs.

The financial flexibility would have remained the same or been even better with a tank scenario.

1. So instead of a chance at resigning Lowry and the 20th pick, we might have Tim Hardaway Jr on a rookie scale contract for several years and a top five pick due to us being worse.

2. Instead of Demar, we might have another prospect or pick.

3. We might have had capspace to absorb a bad contract and get another pick.

So, much of the optimism is about whether or not you believe Kyle and Demar are "the guys" and whether or not we could have replaced them through the draft or capspace.

I am happy about our middling success, but I suspect reality is going to hit us like a ton of bricks come playoff time. We have a jumpshot-heavy offense with limited post capabilities. (And we've done little in the way of forcefeeding JV to prepare him for a bigger load. As a sophomore under Triano Demar got 14 shots a game; Val has gotten 8.)

To me your ceiling is defined by your best player. And a youthful treadmill is still a treadmill. In 08-09, Joe Johnson was 27. Josh Smith was 23, Al Horford was 22, Mike Bibby was 30, Marvin Williams was 22. They were playoff fodder year in and year out. (And Denver looks now to be in the same kind of muddle.)

I feel the Hawks should have built around Horford just like we should have built around Val.

But I will be happy to be proven wrong.

I disagree with the term "Middling success". I think the Raps are doing it right, and that there's a lot of upswing to this current group. They are playing a tough, team-oriented style that's geared toward success with swagger. There will be top FA 's in the next few years who will smell that culture, and want a piece of it. Masai is the maestro!

[vino]

Great thread!

To add my two cents: everybody dishes Phili selling talent for nothing, and then there is Phoenix. If one looks at their rosters side by side in the beginning of the year, who could have predicted the current standings? Phili could have easily gone the Suns way and be successful in the easy Est (minus the Suns amazing draft situation). Our Raps have surprised and exceeded most expectations as well. Point is, just like a lottery, NBA season is a gamble. Chemistry, injuries, contract years - it all can go either way. Having flexibility and competent leadership in this view is key.

[JawsGT]

Utah doesn't work, they had very good young talent ready to step into a bigger role. We have Greivis Vasquez, Julyan Stone and Dwight Buycks. NOT THE SAME THING!!

If you think trading Lowry wouldn't have sent this team into a Top 6 tail-spin, then yes, the opportunity cost would be different for you. I'd also have to say that's crazy. Without Lowry, this team would have completely fallen apart.

What difference does that make? Just because Utah had players ready to step in to those roles doesn't mean they couldn't have traded them for something.

And without Lowry this team would be bad, but as bad as NYK, DET or CLE...no I don't think they would be that bad.

[ebrian]

Guys who have seen me around know I'm a pretty pessimistic guy. This season has been a happy time for all because we are headed to the playoffs for the first time in years, we have a young roster and some picks so things are looking good. I myself look forward to attending a playoff game and cheer for them.

However, I remain greedy. I continue to support building a contending team and I don't see that right now.

With this team, we can make the playoffs for a few years but can we really realistically do any damage without some catastrophic injuries to major players on other teams? We're a bit like the David Ferrer's or (sadly) Milos Raonic's of the ATP tour (tennis). Ferrer has been ranked within the top 15 in the world for almost 5 years and he has never realistically had any chance whatsoever of winning a grand slam title as long as one of Nadal, Federer, Murray or Djokovic are healthy. Raonic is headed for the same career trajectory. He's never going to win anything. The highlight of his career will probably be if he makes it to a finals where he'll get annihilated. Which is great and fine because tennis is a one-person sport and being ranked in the top 15 is a real accomplishment.

But when you're talking about a team sport and your intention is to actually have a shot at winning the whole darned thing, then you would be remiss to not at least position yourself in a situation to acquire a player have to consider acquiring that kind of talent.

[special1]

Guys who have seen me around know I'm a pretty pessimistic guy. This season has been a happy time for all because we are headed to the playoffs for the first time in years, we have a young roster and some picks so things are looking good. I myself look forward to attending a playoff game and cheer for them.

However, I remain greedy. I continue to support building a contending team and I don't see that right now.

With this team, we can make the playoffs for a few years but can we really realistically do any damage without some catastrophic injuries to major players on other teams? We're a bit like the David Ferrer's or (sadly) Milos Raonic's of the ATP tour (tennis). Ferrer has been ranked within the top 15 in the world for almost 5 years and he has never realistically had any chance whatsoever of winning a grand slam title as long as one of Nadal, Federer, Murray or Djokovic are healthy. Raonic is headed for the same career trajectory. He's never going to win anything. The highlight of his career will probably be if he makes it to a finals where he'll get annihilated. Which is great and fine because tennis is a one-person sport and being ranked in the top 15 is a real accomplishment.

But when you're talking about a team sport and your intention is to actually have a shot at winning the whole darned thing, then you would be remiss to not at least position yourself in a situation to acquire a player have to consider acquiring that kind of talent.

What does this even mean?? What makes you think that MU isn't currently positioning himself to do just that (whether through trade/draft or free agency in the next couple seasons)?

People need to remember that there simply isn't that type of talent around that can bring a championship on its own. Lebron couldn't do it, Durant can't/couldn't do it......so whats the point? Young players don't come in and dominate this league (very few). They may put up good numbers but their teams usually suck (hi Kyrie, hi Drummond). By the time their team starts getting better, they may end up leaving anyways. I think its time we get off this drafting/tanking fantasy and look for players in their prime or about to enter their prime (through free agency or trade). Hopefully we can do all this while still keeping and developing our own draft picks. I know it won't be easy but thats what Masai U and Tim L are paid to do.

We need to look at two players both named Kevin. Kevin Durant and Kevin Love. Would we not be contenders if we can get one of those guys on this team (obviously preferably Durant)? Especially if Demar, TR and JV continue to improve and get better? I guess what i'm saying is that i don't think we're as far away as some people might think.....our defence is elite and we have some young players that still can get a lot better.

[ebrian]

What does this even mean?? What makes you think that MU isn't currently positioning himself to do just that (whether through trade/draft or free agency in the next couple seasons)?

Where in my post did I say MU isn't doing it? Don't put words in my mouth if you can't read. I'm addressing the people in the forum, not our GM. He doesn't read these boards.

I'm simply saying that this team cannot be the final product. Don't get too attached.

[ezz_bee]

However, I remain greedy. I continue to support building a contending team and I don't see that right now.

^This. I was starting to worry that I was the only dark cloud/wet blanket left here.

The only thing I would say is that it isn't greed. It's holding front office accountable to their standards. If this was pre TL then I wouldn't be so adamant about getting a team with the ability to get to the finals. I'd be happy to role with this team for the next 3-4 years with playoffs guaranteed and a small but real opportunity to make a Conference Finals.

I'm enjoying the current success, and will be cheering so loud that you'll be able to hear me all the way across the Atlantic (ocean not division). But at some point I want to see that this IS a team that is capable of making that leap to contender status. Unfortunately, that (OPO) is going to require an injection of TALENT, beyond internal development.

[special1]

I'm simply saying that this team cannot be the final product. Don't get too attached.

Who on earth thinks this team is the final product? Talk about stating the obvious....Masai and Tim haven't even been here for a year! lol

[magoon]

What difference does that make? Just because Utah had players ready to step in to those roles doesn't mean they couldn't have traded them for something.

They effectively "traded" Jefferson and Millsap for one year's worth of expirings plus two first-round draft picks, because the cap space they freed up by not re-signing those two is what let them take all that salary from Golden State. That's not bad at all: they got all the benefit of trying to make a playoff run in 2012/13 (always good for a small market team looking to sell seats) and most of the benefit of making a tank trade. Worked out great for them.