Should we throw the Knicks game? Some math...

[makeready]

Hi everyone!
There's been some angst in the fanbase regarding whether the raptors should win or lose tonight. Writers like Eric Koreen are saying there are too many permutations to confidently predict which option is better. They're right, but I did some math anyways to try and figure it out:



In summary, if every team has a 50% chance of winning its game tonight, and my assumptions for series win odds are correct, the Raptors decrease their odds of making it past round one by 4% if they lose tonight, but increase their odds of getting to the conference finals by 3.4%. What's more important?

[makeready]

Also- going 48 wins instead of 49 makes it easier to break the franchise record again in the future

[Balls of Steel]

Nuff, said.

[black angus]

The best scenario is if the Raptors lose, the Bulls win, the Nets lose, and Washington wins. If these four things happen it does not matter what happens in Charlottes game, and would result in the following rankings:
1. Indiana
2. Miami
3. Chicago
4. Toronto
5. Washington
6. Brooklyn
7. Charlotte
8. Atlanta

This would give the Raptors a first round matchup against Washington and a second round matchup against Indiana. So, because Toronto has a late start compared to the other Eastern games I same keep it close and then start scoreboard watching to see what you have to do. If you can rest Lowry, DD and Amir great.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

The best scenario is if the Raptors lose, the Bulls win, the Nets lose, and Washington wins. If these four things happen it does not matter what happens in Charlottes game, and would result in the following rankings:
1. Indiana
2. Miami
3. Chicago
4. Toronto
5. Washington
6. Brooklyn
7. Charlotte
8. Atlanta

This would give the Raptors a first round matchup against Charlotte and a second round matchup against Indiana. So, because Toronto has a late start compared to the other Eastern games I same keep it close and then start scoreboard watching to see what you have to do. If you can rest Lowry, DD and Amir great.

I'm pretty sure you meant a 1st round matchup against Washington. I agree with this idea, but there are soooo many variables at play!

[makeready]

The best scenario is if the Raptors lose, the Bulls win, the Nets lose, and Washington wins. If these four things happen it does not matter what happens in Charlottes game, and would result in the following rankings:
1. Indiana
2. Miami
3. Chicago
4. Toronto
5. Washington
6. Brooklyn
7. Charlotte
8. Atlanta

This would give the Raptors a first round matchup against Charlotte and a second round matchup against Indiana. So, because Toronto has a late start compared to the other Eastern games I same keep it close and then start scoreboard watching to see what you have to do. If you can rest Lowry, DD and Amir great.

My model agrees, that scenario gives us the highest chance (60% * 47% = 28.2%) to make the conference finals.

[octothorp]

This would give the Raptors a first round matchup against Washington and a second round matchup against Indiana. So, because Toronto has a late start compared to the other Eastern games I same keep it close and then start scoreboard watching to see what you have to do. If you can rest Lowry, DD and Amir great.

I believe we've only got a late start compared to the Chicago/Charlotte game. Wizards and Nets games also start at 8 EST.

[Nilanka]

I believe we've only got a late start compared to the Chicago/Charlotte game. Wizards and Nets games also start at 8 EST.

We just have to call a lot more timeouts

[Superjudge]

Brutal.
loser mindset.


You go out tonight, and you blow the Knicks into next year by 40, and then you ride that slaughter into game one and destroy WHOEVER is across from you.

All these mathematical charts are embarrassing to players if you ask me. I'd personally never admit that I fear a team, or prefer not to face them. The minute you do, they own you. and for teams losing to get at you...... well thats just more incentive to completely obliterate them.

[Nilanka]

Brutal.
loser mindset.


You go out tonight, and you blow the Knicks into next year by 40, and then you ride that slaughter into game one and destroy WHOEVER is across from you.

All these mathematical charts are embarrassing to players if you ask me. I'd personally never admit that I fear a team, or prefer not to face them. The minute you do, they own you. and for teams losing to get at you...... well thats just more incentive to completely obliterate them.

The 2-time champs have a loser mindset?

[Superjudge]

Who?


Miami?


Ok man, i can show you likely 10000 posts on this forum alone from guys bitching about how lame Miami is for stacking, complaining, whining etc. so now when its convenient, you're gonnna use them as a shining example of the proper way to make your legacy as an athlete.


Thats for you, not me. I believe is honor and self respect.

Toronto has a young team, full of guys who have never even seen the playoffs..... wasting time worrying about seeding and who they think they can beat is a major mistake. I doubt that this type of sentiment is being allowed in that locker room.

[Nilanka]

We're likely talking about 2 different things, Superjudge.

What we, as fans, would want the Raptors to do vs. what the Raptors are actually likely to do.

[stooley]

We're likely talking about 2 different things, Superjudge.

What we, as fans, would want the Raptors to do vs. what the Raptors are actually likely to do.

Ah, in this case, i agree one hundred percent.

[Superjudge]

I guess.

I, a fan, just want to see them whoop ass every time out. there can only be one way.

[Niagara Raptor]

id prefer to face to face the wizards but I don't like the idea of throwing a game to face them because then we are relying on others to make it work
just win baby and we will beat down whoever we face ... it would be the righteous thing to do to send Brooklyn packing for tanking to face us ... whom do they got to stop the drunk Lithuanian ???