What would YOU pay Lowry?

[mcHAPPY]

Cathal Kelly (now of the G&M) basically implied that MLSE is willing to drop 3yr, $36 million.

No idea what his sources are though....





http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...ticle18034022/

He nailed this one.

It would appear to get him to agree to 3 years, Raps had to add 4th year player option.

[OldSkoolCool]

The deals listed here don't work. The final year base salary can only be a 7.5% raise over the 4th year base salary. Similarly, the final year total salary can only be that same 7.5% (of base salary) lower than the 4th year total salary. This is impossible with the 15% signing bonus. You can make it work by using non-guarantees instead of team options, and allocating some guaranteed salary into that final year (20% does the trick in these cases). So the offer for exactly 60M/5 years would be more like:

11.59M + 2.14M = 13.73M
10.72M + 2.14M = 12.86M
9.85M + 2.14M = 12.10M
8.98M + 2.14M = 11.23M
9.85M (1.97M guaranteed) + 0.43M = 10.28M (2.40M guaranteed)
Total 60M, 52.1M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

Same goes for deal 2. For a 5 year, 56M deal, needs to be:

10.82M + 2M = 12.92M
10.01M + 2M = 12.11M
9.20M + 2M = 11.30M
8.38M + 2M = 10.48M
9.20M (1.84M guaranteed) + 0.4M = 9.60M (2.24M guaranteed)
Total 56M, 48.6M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

Final deal, same idea. For a total of 52M over 5 years:

10.05M + 1.86M = 11.90M
9.29M + 1.86M = 11.15M
8.54M + 1.86M = 10.40M
7.79M + 1.86M = 9.64M
8.54M (1.71M guaranteed) + 0.37M = 8.91M (2.08M guaranteed)
Total 52M, 45.2M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

I agree that the 3rd deal is best. Lowry might not go for it though, and even the 1st deal gives a lot of leeway in that final year, even with a couple million in guaranteed salary.

Thanks for clearing that up. I was wondering how that would work since the base did not follow the 7.5% after the signing bonus was taken into account.

Either way, having a small amount of guaranteed salary in the 5th year in order to make the option work is not a problem, and the front loaded still allows us to have more cap room in future years for Val and Ross etc etc...

[imanshumpert]

Good enough reason to post this gem. Jump to 2:43:

Lololol, Chris is just like, "how dare this dude mention me and Darko together". Don't blame him at all.

[JimiCliff]

Does Kahn overpay good players? I think that goes against his philosophy. He only overpays Darko.

Good enough reason to post this gem. Jump to 2:43:

[BobLoblaw]

I'm not sure it's a factor, but if it could hinder their ability to sign two max guys...Love in 2015, and possibly someone else in 2016 (LeBron, Durant and others will be free agents), then I can see them not having enough interest to throw an overpaying offer on the table.

That depends on Kobe. His extension will expire by that time. As long as they don't give him another 25 mil a year deal.

[white men can't jump]

They could sign Lowry and still sign Love in 2015, as long as they let Pau Gasol go (or he's cheap). Westbrook is under contract till 2017.

I guess they could try to go after Love+another star in 2015, but if Lowry is willing to sign now, do they really pass because of such a long shot? Other than Love, many of the 2015 stars are either long shots from winning teams (Aldridge, Marc Gasol) or risky (Rondo, and I guess Hibbert falls there as well).

I suppose this depends on how they see Lowry.

I'm not sure it's a factor, but if it could hinder their ability to sign two max guys...Love in 2015, and possibly someone else in 2016 (LeBron, Durant and others will be free agents), then I can see them not having enough interest to throw an overpaying offer on the table.

[BobLoblaw]

A Kahn hiring in Detroit would all but ensure it.

Does Kahn overpay good players? I think that goes against his philosophy. He only overpays Darko.

[BobLoblaw]

The only team that even can offer that is the lakers. But theyre gonna be gunning for KLove and Westbrook next year, I don't necessarily see them blowing their load so early.

But yeah, otherwise you're right. Fingers crossed.

They could sign Lowry and still sign Love in 2015, as long as they let Pau Gasol go (or he's cheap). Westbrook is under contract till 2017.

I guess they could try to go after Love+another star in 2015, but if Lowry is willing to sign now, do they really pass because of such a long shot? Other than Love, many of the 2015 stars are either long shots from winning teams (Aldridge, Marc Gasol) or risky (Rondo, and I guess Hibbert falls there as well).

I suppose this depends on how they see Lowry.

[DanH]

Ok so I came up with three deals we could offer Lowry and calculated the cost against cap. All of them 5 years front loaded with maximum signing bonuses of 15% of total compensation with 4 years guaranteed with the fifth as a team option. I used the Early Bird Exception in order to have a salary decrease of 7.5%. First = $60,258411.72. Second = $55,954239.45. Third = $51,650067.19

Deal 1
Year	Base Salary	Signing Bonus Against Cap	Total Against Cap
1	11,740,309.56	2,259,690.44	14,000,000
2	10,690,309.56	2,259,690.44	12,950,000
3	9,719,059.56	2,259,690.44	11,978,750
4	8,820,653.31	2,259,690.44	11,080,343.75
5 - TO	10,249,317.97	-	10,249,317.97
Total	51,219,649.96	9,038,761.76	60,258,411.72
Deal 2
Year	Base Salary	Signing Bonus Against Cap	Total Against Cap
1	10,901,716.02	2,098,283.98	13,000,000
2	9,926,716.02	2,098,283.98	12,025,000
3	9,024,841.02	2,098,283.98	11,123,125
4	8,190,606.65	2,098,283.98	10,288,890.63
5 - TO	9,517,223.83	-	9,517,223.83
Total	47,561,103.54	8,393,135.92	55,954,239.45
Deal 3
Year	Base Salary	Signing Bonus Against Cap	Total Against Cap
1	10,063,122.48	1,936,877.52	12,000,000
2	9,163,122.48	1,936,877.52	11,100,000
3	8,330,622.48	1,936,877.52	10,267,500
4	7,560,559.98	1,936,877.52	9,497,437.50
5 - TO	8,785,129.69	-	8,785,129.69
Total	43,902,557.11	7,747,510.08	51,650,067.19

Personally, Deal #3 is perfect. Lowry gets a 5 year 52 mil deal while in the latter stages of his deal we are only paying out 10.2, 9.5 and a team option of 8.7 mil. Those are excellent numbers against the cap

Deal number 2 isn't bad as his 4th year is only worth 10.2, and the team option is at 9.5.

The deals listed here don't work. The final year base salary can only be a 7.5% raise over the 4th year base salary. Similarly, the final year total salary can only be that same 7.5% (of base salary) lower than the 4th year total salary. This is impossible with the 15% signing bonus. You can make it work by using non-guarantees instead of team options, and allocating some guaranteed salary into that final year (20% does the trick in these cases). So the offer for exactly 60M/5 years would be more like:

11.59M + 2.14M = 13.73M
10.72M + 2.14M = 12.86M
9.85M + 2.14M = 12.10M
8.98M + 2.14M = 11.23M
9.85M (1.97M guaranteed) + 0.43M = 10.28M (2.40M guaranteed)
Total 60M, 52.1M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

Same goes for deal 2. For a 5 year, 56M deal, needs to be:

10.82M + 2M = 12.92M
10.01M + 2M = 12.11M
9.20M + 2M = 11.30M
8.38M + 2M = 10.48M
9.20M (1.84M guaranteed) + 0.4M = 9.60M (2.24M guaranteed)
Total 56M, 48.6M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

Final deal, same idea. For a total of 52M over 5 years:

10.05M + 1.86M = 11.90M
9.29M + 1.86M = 11.15M
8.54M + 1.86M = 10.40M
7.79M + 1.86M = 9.64M
8.54M (1.71M guaranteed) + 0.37M = 8.91M (2.08M guaranteed)
Total 52M, 45.2M over 4 years (plus salary in waived 5th year) guaranteed.

I agree that the 3rd deal is best. Lowry might not go for it though, and even the 1st deal gives a lot of leeway in that final year, even with a couple million in guaranteed salary.

[TSF]

A Kahn hiring in Detroit would all but ensure it.

Please, god, don`t let Kahn get hired. He`s the John Ferguson Jr. of the Basketball World.

[Nilanka]

A Kahn hiring in Detroit would all but ensure it.

[mcHAPPY]

I don't see a single suitor who would pay him 16/4.

Boston has Rondo, Mavs aren't giving him that money, Nets can't, Rockets can't/won't because he's not their coveted third star, knicks can't, grizz can't, 76er's aren't with MCW, Pelicans can't/Have Holiday, spurs haha no way, bulls can't/Rose, nuggets lawson, cavs irving, timberwolves love rubio, pistons can't with Monroe hitting, OKC can't/Westbrook, Pacers are allergic to luxury tax/like Hill, Portland has Dame, Jazz have Burke, Hawks have Teague, GSW Curry, Bobcats Walker, Clippers THE POINT GOD, Heat can't, LAL will only pay for true superstars and is probably drafting Exum, Magic aren't at the stage to go for big contracts yet, Suns Bledsoe, Wizards Wall, Kings Thomas/Up against the cap.

Bucks MAYBE, but I don't see it happening with Knight and Sessions there.

A Kahn hiring in Detroit would all but ensure it.

[Raps76]

I think it's worth stressing that Lowry could end up being courted by teams that don't have the cap space and want to sign-and-trade, or execute trades to clear space. Remember that Golden State last year actively courted Dwight Howard (and had a shot at landing him) even though at the time they didn't have the space to sign him. Which is to say: that makes the Knicks, Rockets, Bucks (new owners! New owners want to spend money!), Timberwolves and Pistons all viable Lowry suitors, in addition to the Lakers and Magic.

I seriously think people are, amazing as it sounds, underrating Kyle's draw on the market this summer. NBA GMs chase stars, and Lowry is one of a few players who are coming out as star-level this year - and he's the only one available as a free agent.

Yeah but don't forget they all potentially could want to get into the free agency class of 2016. A lot of these teams might be gun shy about investing that type of money (13M plus) into Lowry over multiple years.

[magoon]

I think it's worth stressing that Lowry could end up being courted by teams that don't have the cap space and want to sign-and-trade, or execute trades to clear space. Remember that Golden State last year actively courted Dwight Howard (and had a shot at landing him) even though at the time they didn't have the space to sign him. Which is to say: that makes the Knicks, Rockets, Bucks (new owners! New owners want to spend money!), Timberwolves and Pistons all viable Lowry suitors, in addition to the Lakers and Magic.

I seriously think people are, amazing as it sounds, underrating Kyle's draw on the market this summer. NBA GMs chase stars, and Lowry is one of a few players who are coming out as star-level this year - and he's the only one available as a free agent.

[TSF]

At this point, if we beat Brooklyn and Lowry performs well against Miami, I think anything less than $12m per year for four years is a pipe dream. When Miami's Big Three opts into the final year of their contracts (almost certain) and Dirk and Duncan resign with Dallas and San Antonio (definite), Lowry is going to end up the biggest free agent in 2014 after Carmelo Anthony, possibly third team All-NBA, and SOMEBODY is gonna offer him a giant deal. He might sign with us for less because here he's the leader and he knows he's a good fit, but if somebody offers him sixteen per year for four years - and that seems quite plausible to me - you have to wonder what happens.

I don't see a single suitor who would pay him 16/4.

Boston has Rondo, Mavs aren't giving him that money, Nets can't, Rockets can't/won't because he's not their coveted third star, knicks can't, grizz can't, 76er's aren't with MCW, Pelicans can't/Have Holiday, spurs haha no way, bulls can't/Rose, nuggets lawson, cavs irving, timberwolves love rubio, pistons can't with Monroe hitting, OKC can't/Westbrook, Pacers are allergic to luxury tax/like Hill, Portland has Dame, Jazz have Burke, Hawks have Teague, GSW Curry, Bobcats Walker, Clippers THE POINT GOD, Heat can't, LAL will only pay for true superstars and is probably drafting Exum, Magic aren't at the stage to go for big contracts yet, Suns Bledsoe, Wizards Wall, Kings Thomas/Up against the cap.

Bucks MAYBE, but I don't see it happening with Knight and Sessions there.