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Why "selling high" on DeMar doesn't make sense

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  • Why "selling high" on DeMar doesn't make sense

    Many of the anti-DeMar posters on this board (sorry that's an aggressive term, but I can't think of a better one unfortunately) are willing to deal him if it means a lottery pick coming back our way.

    The following graph illustrates why it does not make sense to trade DeRozan unless you are getting a top 3-5 pick back.


    http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/20...ry-draft-picks

    That graph shows the percentage of lottery picks at each slot (#1-#14) that make the all-star team at least ONCE in their careers. As you can see, if DeMar is traded for a pick outside the top 5, we're trading him for on average a 16% chance of getting a player who will eventually see an all-star game.

    Does this make any logical sense? No it doesn't. It's a huge gamble, with an 84% chance of biting us in the ass. That's why I always say no to these trades that I see where we trade DeMar for the 7th pick (10% chance of all-star, see McHappy's thread), or the Cavs pick (9th) or whatever.



    I guess some of you are saying now, "B-b-b-but that player could be better than DeMar!!!" Sure... they could, but the above graph shows us that a player drafted 6-10 has a like a 2% chance of being a HOFer (which imo, if you go a tier above DeMar, you get players that will be in the Hall when they retire). So that's pretty much a dud.

    Trading DeMar for anything that's not a top 5 pick is borderline foolish... wait no it ACTUALLY IS foolish and I really hope Masai doesn't do it unless some dream scenario happens where Wiggins slips out of the top 5 and even then I'd be hesitant. I'm not a fanboy and neither are other DeMar supporters who share this view. It doesn't make any statistical or logical sense.

  • #2
    Love the stats. Honestly, I just don't want DeMar to go because I know he has so much more to offer to this franchise.

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    • #3
      Generally a terrible idea to trade away a young and improving all-star who wants to play for your team. Especially when you historically have trouble luring top talent.
      You can find me on Twitter.

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      • #4
        First, many of the most pro-trade DeRozan posters have always maintained that a trade should only happen if there is an extremely high likelihood of a top-tier talent coming back, be it prospects, picks, or a combination thereof. I could potentially support trading DeRozan, but only for a king's ransom, as the OP outlined.

        Second, the OP is only including half the story of a potential DeRozan trade. There will likely be salary coming back in a trade, meaning the player(s) acquired would have to factor into the overall equation. Even if a trade is made with a team able to add DeRozan without sending out any salary, there's still the opportunity cost to consider; ie: what player(s) will be acquired with the cap space previously spent on DeRozan? Free agent(s) could be signed and/or subsequent trade(s) could be made, using the $9.5M cap space. Again, the net transactions and resulting roster moves would have be factored in, when comparing DeRozan to "x".

        Regardless what side of the DeRozan debate, or DeRozan love-spectrum you fall on, the fact that DeRozan has great value around the league has never been questioned. I trust MU and trust that should he entertain the possibility of trading DeRozan, he will absolutely maximize the return, even if it takes time to fully evaluate the net return.

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        • #5
          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
          First, many of the most pro-trade DeRozan posters have always maintained that a trade should only happen if there is an extremely high likelihood of a top-tier talent coming back, be it prospects, picks, or a combination thereof. I could potentially support trading DeRozan, but only for a king's ransom, as the OP outlined.

          Second, the OP is only including half the story of a potential DeRozan trade. There will likely be salary coming back in a trade, meaning the player(s) acquired would have to factor into the overall equation. Even if a trade is made with a team able to add DeRozan without sending out any salary, there's still the opportunity cost to consider; ie: what player(s) will be acquired with the cap space previously spent on DeRozan? Free agent(s) could be signed and/or subsequent trade(s) could be made, using the $9.5M cap space. Again, the net transactions and resulting roster moves would have be factored in, when comparing DeRozan to "x".

          Regardless what side of the DeRozan debate, or DeRozan love-spectrum you fall on, the fact that DeRozan has great value around the league has never been questioned. I trust MU and trust that should he entertain the possibility of trading DeRozan, he will absolutely maximize the return, even if it takes time to fully evaluate the net return.
          Well aware of this, but the importance of it is negligible. If you're trading DeRozan for a top prospect, that's a long-term move. Unless you get a LeBron or Durant, that player usually won't establish himself as a superstar until his 3rd season or so, at which point you have to extend their contract anyway... likely for more than what DeMar is currently making.

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          • #6
            Keep Demar.

            After this taste of play offs I really really really really do not want to go back to rebuilding again.

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            • #7
              Who in the world wants to get rid of Demar? He loves Toronto, he's already the Raps best player by far, just made the all star team and is improving, and on a very reasonable contract.
              Unless the other delusional posters are right and some fool wants to trade us Paul George for him.

              Comment


              • #8
                This DeMar trading argument really does just move from topic to topic.

                If there's a godfather offer out there for him (Durant in a perfect world) take it. Otherwise keep him.

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                • #9
                  Wiggins wrote: View Post
                  Who in the world wants to get rid of Demar? He loves Toronto, he's already the Raps best player by far, just made the all star team and is improving, and on a very reasonable contract.
                  Unless the other delusional posters are right and some fool wants to trade us Paul George for him.
                  I'm not sure anyone wants to "get rid of him" ... nor do I believe anyone to be delusional; those who have floated the idea of trading Demar, usually preface it by saying "he's our most valuable trade asset", "bring back elite talent", "top tier prospect" etc. ... not exactly a slight. Demar has value, and therefore it's only natural to explore what that value might be. I think people in the US are starting the see that in these playoffs.

                  To the OP, I completely agree that what we have in Demar is already better than what most could/would have hoped for, and should not be given up for just any package. The thing I'm surprised wasn't raised in all of this, is that people have been saying to "sell high" on him for years... and he keeps getting "higher". A player who continues to raise his 'ceiling' obviously has tremendous value.
                  Last edited by Joey; Tue Apr 29th, 2014, 06:55 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Looking at averages and stats doesn't work for specific cases.

                    Look at DeRozan, look at our current team, look at the possible return (ex. Wiggins, Smart, Exum, etc.) then decide if that ONE scenario works.

                    Statistics work to explain all scenarios, not every scenario.

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                    • #11
                      I don't understand why ud trade DD now. Why not keep the team as competitive as possible and go after one of these 'top tier' players when u actually know thy are top tier. What's the point in rushing to develop a guy when we have enough guys were developing as it is.
                      Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways
                      Because its 2015

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                      • #12
                        Joey wrote: View Post
                        I'm not sure anyone wants to "get rid of him" ... nor do I believe anyone to be delusional
                        Anyone that thinks we can get Paul George for Demar Derozan to me is delusional (having false or unrealistic beliefs or opinions).

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Letter N wrote: View Post
                          Looking at averages and stats doesn't work for specific cases.

                          Look at DeRozan, look at our current team, look at the possible return (ex. Wiggins, Smart, Exum, etc.) then decide if that ONE scenario works.

                          Statistics work to explain all scenarios, not every scenario.
                          Looking at averages and stats tells you that drafting outside the top 5 in the lottery (6-14) you have an 84% chance of getting a player that is not worth an all-star.

                          Now knowing that information, we can APPLY that to our specific case. Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for a top 5 pick? Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for instant cap relief and a 16% chance of getting a player as good and even smaller chance of getting a better one? To me the answer is a clear no.

                          You get me a top 5 pick, where the guy has a 50% or so chance of becoming an all-star and my ears open a bit. Otherwise, no thanks, not taking that unnecessary risk.

                          We're not OKC where we need to start selling away players to save money.

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                          • #14
                            9M a year for Demar seems like a reasonable value to me. That's my primary reason for not trading him. Whatever the offer is would have to be pretty damn good.

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                            • #15
                              Wiggins wrote: View Post
                              Who in the world wants to get rid of Demar? He loves Toronto, he's already the Raps best player by far, just made the all star team and is improving, and on a very reasonable contract.
                              Unless the other delusional posters are right and some fool wants to trade us Paul George for him.
                              You spoke something that wasn't venomous hatred about kyle lowry? Well ill be.
                              It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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