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Off-Season Realistic Expectations / Predictions / probably devolve dream acquisitions

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  • Off-Season Realistic Expectations / Predictions / probably devolve dream acquisitions

    The talk of history repeating itself, a great thread and reminder for old head Raptors fans got me thinking.

    Much like Grange elucidates in this piece the Raptors are in somewhat familiar territory. On the crust of a surprise spicy pizza, delivered prepaid and pre-tipped.

    We face an off-season much like those(00'01 & 06'07) where Messiah Ujiri's contemporaries have over paid minor talents. Riding crests of fan adulation with teams that never managed to sustain, let alone, build on those results.

    In that vein, I ask what is your realistic expectations of this off-season?

    And offer Mine:
    Lowry under 12 million for 3years and 10 million for 4years
    Vasquez under 3.5 mill for 3yrs
    Patterson under 5 mill for 4yrs

    Canary in the Fields mineshaft:
    Thabo Sefolosha at/under MLE or if somehow possible S&T to OKC (I'll offer the expiring Fields contract, their 2nd rounder and our 2nd rounder.)
    Bringing in Thabo would signal that the training staff doesn't think Fields can comeback from his litany of medical issues to the level he was, and thus should be considered cap relief and no more.

    Otherwise I look to 14'15 Off-season for a veteran presence and/or impact player.

    Finally, for whomever falls to our First Pick to make waves in Summer League and push the players in front of them on the depth chart in camp.

  • #2
    If i save this spot in the thread, can we have someone who knows caps post a little summary of our cap situation for this year here (have a mod move it here).
    "Bruno?
    Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
    He's terrible."

    -Superjudge, 7/23

    Hope you're wrong.

    Comment


    • #3
      2014-15:

      DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
      John Salmons $7,000,000 (1 M guar until June 30th)
      Amir Johnson $7,000,000 (5 M guar)
      Landry Fields $6,250,000
      Chuck Hayes $5,958,750
      Steve Novak $3,445,947
      Jonas Valanciunas $3,678,360
      Tyler Hansbrough $3,326,235 (1 M guaranteed until June 29th)
      Terrence Ross $2,793,960
      Julyan Stone $948,163 (unguaranteed until 7th July)
      Dwight Buycks $816,482 (unguaranteed until 22nd July)
      Marcus Camby $646,609 (buyout)

      Kyle Lowry $9,315,000 (cap hold)
      Patrick Patterson $7,763,253 (cap hold; $4,319,474 QO)
      Greivis Vasquez $5,375,470 (cap hold; $3,203,780 QO)
      Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO)

      20th pick $1,215,300 (cap hold)

      Above roster, with all free agents released and TH, Stone, Salmons and Buycks waived: $44,518,270

      With all cap holds, no waived players well over cap (76M range).

      Estimated:
      Cap: 63.2 M (as high as 62.9 by recent estimates)
      Tax: 77.0 M
      Apron/Hard Cap: 81.0 M
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

      Comment


      • #4
        Just heard butch carter on tim&sid. He mentioned (and he's not the first) that the raps need a "shot blocker". This seems to be a common idea. But then what is our 7ft (ish) Lithuanian for? I understand he didn't excel at it this year but isn't that part of his development? Are people imaging more of a 4 that can block shots? Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

        Comment


        • #5
          I noticed that Thabo didnt play much in the series vs memphis, although he has got more time this series
          Do you think the staff might not be as happy with him anymore? Think he would actually consider signing somewhere else?

          I know money talks, but so does playing with Durant....

          Comment


          • #6
            Jclaw wrote: View Post
            Just heard butch carter on tim&sid. He mentioned (and he's not the first) that the raps need a "shot blocker". This seems to be a common idea. But then what is our 7ft (ish) Lithuanian for? I understand he didn't excel at it this year but isn't that part of his development? Are people imaging more of a 4 that can block shots? Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
            Meh. There have been enough great teams without a dominant shot-blocker that we know it isn't a necessity.
            "Stop eating your sushi."
            "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
            "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
            - Jack Armstrong

            Comment


            • #7
              Ideal off-season for me:

              Resign Kyle Lowry, 4 years, 44 million - 1.7M higher than his cap hold
              Resign Greivis Vasquez, 3 years, 12 million - 1.4M lower than his cap hold
              Resign Patrick Patterson, 4 years, 20 million - 2.7M lower than his cap hold

              Draft a big SF with emphasis on defense (Jerami Grant? someone like him? since apparently he'll never learn to shoot)
              Draft a PF/C with our early 2nd rounder to replace TH/sub for JV sometimes.

              Release Buycks, Stone, Salmons and TH.

              This all leaves us with 64.5M on the books (I think right? 20M of new salary in resigning FAs).

              So we don't really have any room to work with there.

              Ideally somehow we wiggle out of some money, sign Carter to 2 years, 6M.

              Then trade Novak? De Colo? or both or some combination of crappiness to get a Bismark Biyombo type.

              Opening day roster:

              Starters:
              Kyle Lowry
              Demar Derozan
              Terrence Ross
              Amir Johnson
              Jonas Valanciunas

              Bench:
              Greivis Vasquez
              Vince Carter
              rookie SF
              Patrick Patterson
              Bismark Biyombo/early 2nd rounder
              Landry Fields
              Steve Novak
              Chuck Hayes

              JimiCliff wrote: View Post
              Meh. There have been enough great teams without a dominant shot-blocker that we know it isn't a necessity.
              Not an elite guy, off the bench behind JV. He can play in TH/CH minutes.
              "Bruno?
              Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
              He's terrible."

              -Superjudge, 7/23

              Hope you're wrong.

              Comment


              • #8
                Jclaw wrote: View Post
                Just heard butch carter on tim&sid. He mentioned (and he's not the first) that the raps need a "shot blocker". This seems to be a common idea. But then what is our 7ft (ish) Lithuanian for? I understand he didn't excel at it this year but isn't that part of his development? Are people imaging more of a 4 that can block shots? Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
                We'll see what happens with Jonas. He clearly regressed in this area this season. I wonder if the conditioning issues played a part. His per36 bpg went from 1.9 to 1.1....that's almost cut in half.

                We'll see if he can get some pop back, and also should expect this to improve regardless even just a bit from improved D we hope to see as he develops.

                It would be nice to add a backup with size/length though who have an impact protecting the rim.

                Comment


                • #9
                  stooley wrote: View Post
                  Ideally somehow we wiggle out of some money, sign Carter to 2 years, 6M.
                  Since we didn't use cap space (all free agent signings through Bird rights), we would retain the MLE and could use part of that to sign Vince if you want to.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                    We'll see what happens with Jonas. He clearly regressed in this area this season. I wonder if the conditioning issues played a part. His per36 bpg went from 1.9 to 1.1....that's almost cut in half.

                    We'll see if he can get some pop back, and also should expect this to improve regardless even just a bit from improved D we hope to see as he develops.

                    It would be nice to add a backup with size/length though who have an impact protecting the rim.
                    The coaching staff emphasized to Jonas that blocking shots was not a priority - challenging shots and not fouling was. Rule of verticality and all that. I think it was a directive, rather than a regression.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      DanH wrote: View Post
                      The coaching staff emphasized to Jonas that blocking shots was not a priority - challenging shots and not fouling was. Rule of verticality and all that. I think it was a directive, rather than a regression.
                      That's part of it. But I thought it also became clear he just wasn't getting to spots/getting up fast enough to get blocks he was getting last year. I mean, I loved what he brought as a blocker last year. He showed the ability to block with both hands, and he showed good awareness in keeping blocks inbounds often helping to initiate a break. Would love to get some of that back.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        stooley wrote: View Post
                        Ideal off-season for me:

                        Resign Kyle Lowry, 4 years, 44 million - 1.7M higher than his cap hold
                        Resign Greivis Vasquez, 3 years, 12 million - 1.4M lower than his cap hold
                        Resign Patrick Patterson, 4 years, 20 million - 2.7M lower than his cap hold

                        Draft a big SF with emphasis on defense (Jerami Grant? someone like him? since apparently he'll never learn to shoot)
                        Draft a PF/C with our early 2nd rounder to replace TH/sub for JV sometimes.

                        Release Buycks, Stone, Salmons and TH.

                        This all leaves us with 64.5M on the books (I think right? 20M of new salary in resigning FAs).

                        So we don't really have any room to work with there.

                        Ideally somehow we wiggle out of some money, sign Carter to 2 years, 6M.

                        Then trade Novak? De Colo? or both or some combination of crappiness to get a Bismark Biyombo type.

                        Opening day roster:

                        Starters:
                        Kyle Lowry
                        Demar Derozan
                        Terrence Ross
                        Amir Johnson
                        Jonas Valanciunas

                        Bench:
                        Greivis Vasquez
                        Vince Carter
                        rookie SF
                        Patrick Patterson
                        Bismark Biyombo/early 2nd rounder
                        Landry Fields
                        Steve Novak
                        Chuck Hayes



                        Not an elite guy, off the bench behind JV. He can play in TH/CH minutes.
                        DanH wrote: View Post
                        Since we didn't use cap space (all free agent signings through Bird rights), we would retain the MLE and could use part of that to sign Vince if you want to.
                        So if we do that we're on the books for 67.5M this year. And assuming no backloading or funky contract management, next year we have coming off the books:

                        Landry Fields - 6.2M
                        Chuck Hayes - 6M
                        Camby - 0.65M
                        Amir - 7M
                        Salmons/TH buyouts - 2M

                        For a total of 21.85M. Assuming the cap increases by a little again (to 64M, 63.5M?), we're left with 45.6M on the books, and about 18M in capspace. Is that enough to sign a max player? Is that enough to sign a max player and fill out some holes?

                        If we clear off Novak somehow, I think that really opens up some options for the summer of 2015.
                        Last edited by stooley; Thu May 8, 2014, 03:28 PM.
                        "Bruno?
                        Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                        He's terrible."

                        -Superjudge, 7/23

                        Hope you're wrong.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          stooley wrote: View Post
                          So if we do that we're on the books for 67.5M this year. And assuming no backloading or funky contract management, next year we have coming off the books:

                          Landry Fields - 6.2M
                          Chuck Hayes - 6M
                          Camby - 0.65M
                          Amir - 7M
                          Salmons/TH buyouts - 2M

                          For a total of 21.85M. Assuming the cap increases by a little again (to 64M, 63.5M?), we're left with 45.6M on the books, and about 18M in capspace. Is that enough to sign a max player? Is that enough to sign a max player and fill out some holes?

                          If we clear off Novak somehow, I think that really opens up some options.
                          Well, a bunch of other players get raises from this coming year to the next one, so no, we're not looking at nearly that much cap space. If we don't sign VC (or we sign him to a 1 year deal), we are looking at closer to 19M in cap space (if Amir doesn't get re-signed). With a MLE deal still on there, you are looking at more like 13.5M in cap room.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            DanH wrote: View Post
                            Well, a bunch of other players get raises from this coming year to the next one, so no, we're not looking at nearly that much cap space. If we don't sign VC (or we sign him to a 1 year deal), we are looking at closer to 19M in cap space (if Amir doesn't get re-signed). With a MLE deal still on there, you are looking at more like 13.5M in cap room.
                            I don't get that part. If Vince is on contract for 2 years, each at 3 mill, we should be looking at 16M then right?

                            And if we trade Novak for an expiring, we'd have 19.5M right?
                            "Bruno?
                            Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                            He's terrible."

                            -Superjudge, 7/23

                            Hope you're wrong.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Good starting point for Toronto's team salary position, currently and into the future. Note that you can hover over each player to see details about his contract (ie: the dates by which decisions need to be made about Salmons & Hanbrough).

                              http://data.shamsports.com/content/p...es/raptors.jsp

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