Demar for draft pick poll - don't freak out, read first

[JordanMariam14]

Top 5.

I don't see any players out of the top 5 that can be a player like DeMar.

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[imanshumpert]

Yay I found this graph again



And after looking at it again I think I'm going to change my vote to top 3 (I know I can't actually do that).

So basically, a pick outside the top 3 has a 67% or higher chance of NEVER making one all-star game. Obviously the all-star games aren't the only way to measure talent level, but a player who's worth trading DeRozan for (and subsequently watching Lowry walk) better at least be good enough to get on at least ONE damn all-star team in his career.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I'd prefer to trade for a player (ie: Wiggans), as opposed to just a draft slot. I'd gladly include the #20 pick along with DeRozan, in order to draft/acquire Wiggans.

My guess is that DeRozan's value around the league is probably in the 8-15 range straight-up, basically because of the incredible expected up-side/potential associated with at least the top 5/6 picks in this year's draft. There's also the lure of the unknown becoming better than the known, even when the known is pretty good.

[stooley]

Yay I found this graph again

And after looking at it again I think I'm going to change my vote to top 3 (I know I can't actually do that).

So basically, a pick outside the top 3 has a 67% or higher chance of NEVER making one all-star game. Obviously the all-star games aren't the only way to measure talent level, but a player who's worth trading DeRozan for (and subsequently watching Lowry walk) better at least be good enough to get on at least ONE damn all-star team in his career.

I think there's some pretty blatant flaws in using that to predict any individual draft, especially one happening so soon.

One use for it would be setting up pick protection on picks down the road (like the NYK 2016) or if we'd traded Lowry for their 2018 pick.

[stooley]

I'd prefer to trade for a player (ie: Wiggans), as opposed to just a draft slot. I'd gladly include the #20 pick along with DeRozan, in order to draft/acquire Wiggans.

My guess is that DeRozan's value around the league is probably in the 8-15 range straight-up, basically because of the incredible expected up-side/potential associated with at least the top 5/6 picks in this year's draft. There's also the lure of the unknown becoming better than the known, even when the known is pretty good.

I want only your opinion. The rest doesn't matter.

I know it's unreasonable, and we can use the espn big board for some indication of who will fall where.

If you'd only trade him for Wiggins, you're gonna have to vote #1.

[JawsGT]

Statistically based on that study, yep

I find that surprising, and it is different than the graph you posted. I wonder which is more reliable? Either way, I think Top3 is a good choice.

[Other Scott]

I'd prefer Detractors and Supporters ...

I like DeTractors and DeVotees.

I went third, because the only players I really believe in with this draft are Wiggins, Parker and Randle. And only then because no salary is returned. I feel like unloading DeMar for a top draft pick is asking Lowry to leave, then we're basically just the Cavaliers.

[Letter N]

I think there's some pretty blatant flaws in using that to predict any individual draft, especially one happening so soon.

One use for it would be setting up pick protection on picks down the road (like the NYK 2016) or if we'd traded Lowry for their 2018 pick.

No Stooley, don't you see, a representation of all scenarios perfectly showcases what will happen here. That's why if they offer the 2nd pick in the draft for DeMar we should turn it down and take the 3rd pick in the draft.

NUMBERS DON'T LIE!!!!

[OptimalOptimist]

To me it's top 3 only as Embiid, Parker and Wiggins are clearly a cut above the rest and seems like the real franchise players in the draft.

EDIT : that being said, it would brings the franchise 5 years back and would probably dim the overall increasing attention basketball is receiving.

[imanshumpert]

I find that surprising, and it is different than the graph you posted. I wonder which is more reliable? Either way, I think Top3 is a good choice.

One of them (the first one) looks at Pts+Rebs+Asts

The other looks at players who have made at least 1 all-star game.

[JawsGT]

The draft is so hit and miss it's crazy. Looking over previous draft classes makes it so hard to decide if it would be worth it at all to trade Demar for a pick. I voted top3, but now I'm starting to think I wouldn't do it at all, unless it was for a specific player like CalgaryRapsFan said. Look at Demar's draft class as an example. Minny took Rubio and Flynn back to back at 5 and 6. Thabeet went 2. Jordan Hill went one slot ahead of Demar. Tyreke went at 4. Holiday, Lawson (Minny again) and Teague at 17, 18 and 19. Taj Gibson went 26th. Austin Daye was 15! WTF was Minnesota doing? No wonder they suck, they drafted Lawson with their lowest of 3 1st rounders, who turned out to be the best of those picks but they traded him.

There is just no way to tell how any of these guys will respond to the NBA. If that 2009 draft were done again, knowing what we know now, then it would probably have a top 10 like this (in no particular order):

Griffin, Curry, Harden, Derozan, Lawson, Holiday, Gibson, Teague, with Rubio, Jennings or Tyreke perhaps rounding it out.

The draft is crazy, and it would be a huge risk to trade a guy like Demar for a draft slot, even though the upcoming draft is supposed to be much deeper than the 2009 draft. I can't say I'd risk it, and clearly if one has an eye for talent one can get good to really good players late in the lottery or even outside.

[DanH]

answer in the poll goddamit!

Poll wasn't up when I answered. Have done so since.

[Letter N]

I voted top3, but now I'm starting to think I wouldn't do it at all, unless it was for a specific player like CalgaryRapsFan said.

In cases where the team isn't actively looking to just get rid of the player they usually don't make the trade until they see who is available at the spot.

I'm certain the trade talks are basically telling a team that if player X is available when you come up then we're willing to trade.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I want only your opinion. The rest doesn't matter.

I know it's unreasonable, and we can use the espn big board for some indication of who will fall where.

If you'd only trade him for Wiggins, you're gonna have to vote #1.

I voted for #10 in the poll, for a straight-up value (per the OP).

I don't think he's worth more, at market value. In my mind, the #10 and other assets (ie: #20) could help move up even further and/or target a specific player in the top-10, if that's the end goal.

[MangoKid]

In this market, the only way to justify trading Derozan for a Draft pick is by getting Wiggins. If we get Smart or Vonleh, are we that much better of a team 5 years down the road? Sure, they could develop into all stars, but would you really consider them to be a franchise altering player? If not, would it not make sense to the all star we already have?

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