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At what point does a prospect generated from a pick lose his lustre?

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  • TSF
    replied
    ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Agree with the above, but they are market indicators. For me I use a combination of

    10,000 minutes
    4 years in the NBA
    24+ years old

    When a player reaches 1 of those thresholds the "potential" clock starts running down. When a player passes all three of those thresholds, hopefully the potential has been reached, or at least appears to be on track. Although each player is different and there are obviously exceptions, but the odds of a "leap" or a realization of potential after those three thresholds has been met seems unlikely.

    Bargnani reached those thresholds 3 seasons ago, Derozan reached it this season. By the end of next season, both Derrick Williams and Tristan Thompson will have passed one of the three thresholds.


    All that said, potential is also tied up in expectations. If you were expecting Thompson to be an all-start PF I think that is more a case of mistaken expectations than not realizing potential. I don't think he's ever going to be more that an average starting PF, and it wouldn't be a surprise me if he was maxed out as a back up PF.
    And yet we got a 1st rounder out of the knicks based on what Bargs could potentially be. As long as there's one dreaming GM...

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  • Bendit
    replied
    Joey wrote: View Post
    I'd say, for anyone who realizes that AB was facing some pretty extenuating circumstances, he still holds some lustre.

    Also have to keep in mind that Cleveland were the only ones who saw him as a #1 pick. If you are realistic about him, you'd see he can still have a solid career.
    Lol. You know....ironically/coincidentally we have had a painful experience with our very own AB for too long a time...a fellow named Andrea. I wonder if there are any takers for him these days (I am sure the Knickers want to unload him).

    Disclosure: I was hot on for Thomas Robinson, now in Portland and picked 5th by the Kings.Beware of 6'8" PFs who dominate in the paint in college...is all I can offer! It's a crapshoot out there when pro pickers cannot make a decent choice in the top 5 of any draft.

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  • brothersteve
    replied
    I had a nice chat with Colangelo about when a draft picks value starts to drop a few years back & I think he nailed it.

    Draft picks are worth the most before they are used because that player could be anyone the other team could imagine drafting with it and what that hypothetical player could become.

    Once you draft a player, some GMs will like him, some won't. He would fill a need a some teams but not others. He becomes someone you can criticize, has limitations, can't do some stuff, has to be developed and the market for the drafted player is smaller than the draft pick itself as the player becomes real rather someone you can imagine being drafted at that spot.

    In almost every case, a draft pick loses lustre the moment an actual player becomes attached to it - with obvious exceptions like LBJ

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  • stretch
    replied
    Royce White is beginning to lose his lustre for me. I hope he put some money in the bank as he has two young kids.

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  • ezz_bee
    replied
    TSF wrote: View Post
    Whenever an opposing general manager isn't willing to give you extra assets for a player based on their potential.
    golden wrote: View Post
    When you can't trade him for his equivalent or better draft position in an upcoming draft of similar talent depth.
    Agree with the above, but they are market indicators. For me I use a combination of

    10,000 minutes
    4 years in the NBA
    24+ years old

    When a player reaches 1 of those thresholds the "potential" clock starts running down. When a player passes all three of those thresholds, hopefully the potential has been reached, or at least appears to be on track. Although each player is different and there are obviously exceptions, but the odds of a "leap" or a realization of potential after those three thresholds has been met seems unlikely.

    Bargnani reached those thresholds 3 seasons ago, Derozan reached it this season. By the end of next season, both Derrick Williams and Tristan Thompson will have passed one of the three thresholds.


    All that said, potential is also tied up in expectations. If you were expecting Thompson to be an all-start PF I think that is more a case of mistaken expectations than not realizing potential. I don't think he's ever going to be more that an average starting PF, and it wouldn't be a surprise me if he was maxed out as a back up PF.

    Leave a comment:


  • gametime
    replied
    When his compete level declines. Popovich often talks about this in combination with "gut" feelings and "heart". You can hit all the "open" shots and have the best "vertical" in the world in empty gyms and uncontested practices. Show me how hard you want to drill those same shots when I'm in your face making your life hell every practice imitating real games scenarios. The more fight you show, the higher the odds you're going to start climbing that depth chart.

    Leave a comment:


  • golden
    replied
    mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    It is draft time again.

    Lots of hope and optimism about players and all us arm chair GMs spouting who is the best the draft has to offer at "X" position. What I was wondering is: when does a pick or prospect lose his lustre?
    When you can't trade him for his equivalent or better draft position in an upcoming draft of similar talent depth.

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  • TSF
    replied
    Whenever an opposing general manager isn't willing to give you extra assets for a player based on their potential.

    Leave a comment:


  • Puffer
    replied
    mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure that was general consensus. See below on the draft rater rankings.... which is likely to be never used again
    The fact that TT hasn't lived up to the hype may be more due to the situation than lack of capability...I think he gets a bit of a pass for switching shooting hands last summer as well. (Flip side of that is that I expect he is now much better with his non-shooting hand than 95% of the other players in the league). How he was being used and how that might change in another situation, we will have to see. Amir wasn't the stat guys wet dream in his first 2-3 years in the league either.

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  • mcHAPPY
    replied
    CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I think in general, prospects tend to get over-analyzed these days. With the ability for 'experts' and 'insiders' and fans to watch every player play every game and watch unlimited highlights online - not the mention the impact of group-think - good old fashioned scouting seems to have taken a backseat. As you pointed out, first it was athleticism that became the trend. Now you see players rocket up draft boards because they had a good vertical, or an extra inch of height, or above average sized hands. What happened to just watching them play and going with your gut?

    I think one of the problems overall is that it seems like every player in the draft is compared to an all-star caliber player, just because they have a similar build or play a similar style of game. So many players, such as TT and DW, get these lofty expectations lumped on them because of the comparisons that are drawn, to the point that there's practically no way they can avoid being 'busts'. TT never seemed like anything more than a backup PF, or a starting PF who would be a 4th option, low-usage 10/10 player. He was never going to be a star player but, given his draft position and comparisons, he was expected to perform "like a #4 overall pick"; whatever that really means.

    I agree with the notion that 2-4 years is sufficient time to evaluate a player. Playing time and the situation is always going to impact a player's development, which is the same in the NBA as it is in every sport.
    I'm not sure that was general consensus. See below on the draft rater rankings.... which is likely to be never used again

    Enter ESPN's John Hollinger and his Draft Rater rankings. This is the annual column in which Hollinger takes players' college stats and predicts how they'll translate to the NBA.

    The highest rated player was...drumroll please...Tristan Thompson.

    Thompson's 16.21 rating was even superior to that of Kyrie Irving (15.14) and Derrick Williams (15.97). This information caused Hollinger to rank Thompson No. 3 on his overall big board entering the draft.

    What this means is that the things that Thompson does, the way that he affects the game, that goes beyond just the eye-catching plays that often vault players to the top of the draft. The stats don't lie...his impact on the game is profound and undeniable.

    Hollinger's ratings have seldom failed with the exceptions generally coming in cases of injuries, character problems, or off-court issues.

    And Thompson gets glowing remarks on the character test. Leading up to and after the draft, the Cavs brass stressed how important it was to them that they were drafting not just good basketball players but good men as well. They placed more importance on the interviews than the actual workouts.

    Thompson is a guy who has consistently worked hard his whole life and really seems to love playing the game of basketball.

    Though I was skeptical of the pick at first, I now think the Cavs made a very good choice in selecting Thompson. I think he's going to have a very solid impact on the team for years to come.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/7...prise-doubters

    Leave a comment:


  • CalgaryRapsFan
    replied
    Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Malcolm Gladwell and Bill Simmons had an excellent exchange about this several years ago, discussing how GMs liked to go for the home-run pick of young, athletic, all-upside picks. But after guys like Marvin Williams, Tyrus Thomas, Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, etc all underwhelmed, I think the pendulum swung the other way, which is why so many teams passed on Andre Drummond. I mean Drummond was tied for the top spot in the DX mock for a long, long time, and it was only when the "maybe he can't play" label got snagged on him that he began to drop. (Giannis was also the type of pick who I think would have been selected much higher in the early 2000s, though part of the concern was a lack of a track record.)
    I think in general, prospects tend to get over-analyzed these days. With the ability for 'experts' and 'insiders' and fans to watch every player play every game and watch unlimited highlights online - not the mention the impact of group-think - good old fashioned scouting seems to have taken a backseat. As you pointed out, first it was athleticism that became the trend. Now you see players rocket up draft boards because they had a good vertical, or an extra inch of height, or above average sized hands. What happened to just watching them play and going with your gut?

    I think one of the problems overall is that it seems like every player in the draft is compared to an all-star caliber player, just because they have a similar build or play a similar style of game. So many players, such as TT and DW, get these lofty expectations lumped on them because of the comparisons that are drawn, to the point that there's practically no way they can avoid being 'busts'. TT never seemed like anything more than a backup PF, or a starting PF who would be a 4th option, low-usage 10/10 player. He was never going to be a star player but, given his draft position and comparisons, he was expected to perform "like a #4 overall pick"; whatever that really means.

    I agree with the notion that 2-4 years is sufficient time to evaluate a player. Playing time and the situation is always going to impact a player's development, which is the same in the NBA as it is in every sport.

    Leave a comment:


  • OptimalOptimist
    replied
    I don't think is it a definite time limit that qualifies a prospect as a bust, but more so the expectations. Guys like Derrick Williams were supposed to be "stars" from day one, which didn't happen, therefore he has been labeled as a bust.

    But some other high picks, who are clearly project, such as Biyombo, do not possess that label because the expectation was for him to be a contributor after he actually learns basketball.

    Situation could affect as well. Had Biyombo started from day 1 in Charlotte, he would have been a big bust. Had Williams been placed in an role player situation instead of having that pressure, he could have been great.

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  • Fully
    replied
    Some of it is determined by actually watching them play and seeing the type of mistakes they are making.

    If the mistakes stem from a lack of experience, nerves or because they're still physically developing early in their career, a player is going to keep his 'lustre' for a lot longer than a guy who gets out there and messes up because the effort isn't there or they refuse to follow instructions from the coaching staff.

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  • BigCamB
    replied
    caccia wrote: View Post
    One year ago, who would have thought Patrick Patterson would be this good?
    Me...he was good in Houston a couple of years ago.

    Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    I've heard so much about this mirotic guy. I feel like he's mad overrated. Does anyone know if he's actually that good? People who have actually watched him play rather than highlights
    How can you tell if you haven't even seen him play? The fact that he dominates in the Spanish league at a young age is a pretty good indicator. No one is saying he's the next Dirk, but I hear a Ryan Anderson comparison quite a bit, and he's a very valuable and good player in the league today.
    Last edited by BigCamB; Wed May 21, 2014, 05:08 AM.

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  • 007
    replied
    caccia wrote: View Post
    One year ago, who would have thought Patrick Patterson would be this good?
    Of course he would be good, he's PATMAN!!!!

    Leave a comment:

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