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  • Shredder wrote: View Post

    I read a much lower number like 2%, with the assumption it would get lower considering so many people would contract and the symptoms be mild. 3.6% is much more serious. SARS was 10%
    Very tough to get a hold on these numbers. There is probably lots of people who have had the disease that didn't get tested so they would inflate the "recovered" statistic. Also country by country response and the lifestyle/density numbs down the #'s in some cases and inflates in others. It's still pretty early to count on any of these statistics especially with the epicenter of the disease potentially being being closed doors so to speak. These rates could very well be much lower or much higher.
    To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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    • Shredder wrote: View Post

      I read a much lower number like 2%, with the assumption it would get lower considering so many people would contract and the symptoms be mild. 3.6% is much more serious. SARS was 10%
      2% as the first number to come out but estimates have been above 3% for a while now. There's a lot of uncertainty though. The range is somewhere between 1% to 6% depending on the study approach. But even the low end is an order of magnitude worse than the flu.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • inthepaint wrote: View Post

        Yes, that was a typo, fixed in the OP. Seasonal flu 0.1%, Covid 3.6%, SARS which was supposed to kill half the planet was 9.6%. One piece of good news I found is that no single child under 9 has reportedly died from covid:

        https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

        That table also shows how skewed the death rate is based on age and how high it is for 80+, unfortunately for that age group. Rate for people under 50 is around 0.3%.

        SARS had a high kill rate but it was far easier to contain than COVID-19. COVID-19 is that perfect brutal combination of being as transmissible (or more so) as the flu, while being significantly more dangerous if caught.

        And yes, older people die from literally everything at a rate far higher than young people. Look up similar stats for the seasonal flu and you'll see the same pattern, but with a dramatically higher rate for COVID in every group (except the very young who seem resilient to this so far, thankfully).

        But keep in mind the context of even a 0.3% number. 0.3% of the population of Canada is 100,000 deaths. And that ignores all the older and more vulnerable people who will die at a dramatically faster rate. If the spread is contained, those numbers can drop, but that just means it is VERY VERY important for people NOT to treat this like it is remotely similar to the flu, because if they don't those worst case numbers can easily become a reality.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • golden wrote: View Post

          Considering that people take flu shots at the start of the flu season and there's no vaccine for C-19 yet, the death rate for C-19 seems low on a relative basis.
          Flu shots prevent catching the flu by creating antibodies prior to getting the virus, so won't impact the death rate for the flu, as the idea is to eliminate flu cases, not improve the ability to survive those cases.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • golden wrote: View Post

            Considering that people take flu shots at the start of the flu season and there's no vaccine for C-19 yet, the death rate for C-19 seems low on a relative basis.
            Good point. Flu shots decrease the overall death toll of the ordinary flu because it prevents people from getting in the first place, and yet, because the common flu is so widespread and mutates every year, the total death# in the world is already over 95,000 this year (C-19 at the moment is short of 5,000).

            The other thing to consider is that in the case of corona, about 80% of the cases are not severe enough to elicit symptoms, so it's possible there are hundreds of thousands of people catching it, recovering it, and not even knowing it, which would push the actual, true mortality rate a lot lower (the 0.3% for under age 50 are just the cases that were tested and the patient died after). There are several parallels between the seasonal flu and C-19. C19 is of course more severe and has a higher mortality/transmission rate, but both are viral respiratory infections, able to thrive more in colder months (which are about to be over), are transmitted the same way, and can be prevented the same way (with proper handwashing, limited contact with exposed people etc), so all these measures are valid, limiting the spread of both C-19 and regular flu.
            2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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            • What's amazing (frightening?) about all this is how easily it could be something far worse. SARS was a learning experience, hopefully there are some pretty significant pandemic response changes after this.
              "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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              • S.R. wrote: View Post
                What's amazing (frightening?) about all this is how easily it could be something far worse. SARS was a learning experience, hopefully there are some pretty significant pandemic response changes after this.
                This can't be stressed enough. My wife is in healthcare and she always stats the fact that pharmaceutical companies having 100+ new anti anxiety, blood pressure drugs coming down the pipeline, but not a one new antibiotic. Or in this case vaccine, or anti-vitriol. This could be a lot worse, and hopefully we learn from it.

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                • Shredder wrote: View Post

                  This can't be stressed enough. My wife is in healthcare and she always stats the fact that pharmaceutical companies having 100+ new anti anxiety, blood pressure drugs coming down the pipeline, but not a one new antibiotic. Or in this case vaccine, or anti-vitriol. This could be a lot worse, and hopefully we learn from it.
                  It's great that we are pushing for more preparedness, but this issue of "why isn't there a vaccine already" is a red herring. You can't begin developing a vaccine until you've isolated the actual virus. In other words, until someone gets sick and you get samples, you can't even start looking for the preventative measure. Humans had no knowledge of this particular coronavirus variant until this outbreak. It's part of the reason that these things are so complex.

                  There's still no fully proven vaccine for SARS, even though people have been working on it for 17 years.
                  Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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                  • Guys, there's a thread for all this talk
                    https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/f...onavirus/page2

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                    • We're just reminiscing back to the DeMar DeRozan days, when we'd have debates about whether he was a HoF or a complete bum in every single thread on the forum

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                      • Ebonhawke wrote: View Post
                        We're just reminiscing back to the DeMar DeRozan days, when we'd have debates about whether he was a HoF or a complete bum in every single thread on the forum
                        Haha I forgot
                        "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                        • jimmie wrote: View Post

                          It's great that we are pushing for more preparedness, but this issue of "why isn't there a vaccine already" is a red herring. You can't begin developing a vaccine until you've isolated the actual virus. In other words, until someone gets sick and you get samples, you can't even start looking for the preventative measure. Humans had no knowledge of this particular coronavirus variant until this outbreak. It's part of the reason that these things are so complex.

                          There's still no fully proven vaccine for SARS, even though people have been working on it for 17 years.
                          My point was more that pharmaceutical companies have more incentive to develop drugs we start taking, and continue taking forever over a drug that is used once and that's all. They both might cost the same, in fact the one time use probably costs more, but the cost benefit of the drug you continue to take is much more profitable.

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                          • Ebonhawke wrote: View Post
                            We're just reminiscing back to the DeMar DeRozan days, when we'd have debates about whether he was a HoF or a complete bum in every single thread on the forum
                            Nows a great time to settle some of the age old RR debates once and for all. Some of the more contorversial one i can think of.
                            Where does Vince rank?
                            Should his # be retired and if so does it get retired 1st?
                            Will Masai leave?
                            Was vince or the organization more at fault?
                            How good would we have been in Tmac stayed?
                            Is Bosh a HOFer?
                            Should J.V get a ring?
                            Why did casey start Handsbrough in a playoff game to guard paul pierce?
                            How good is McCaw?
                            Jokic vs Embiid?

                            To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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                            • bertarapsfan wrote: View Post

                              Nows a great time to settle some of the age old RR debates once and for all. Some of the more contorversial one i can think of.
                              Where does Vince rank? Best dunker of all time.
                              Should his # be retired and if so does it get retired 1st? Yes. No.
                              Will Masai leave? No. Please. God, no.
                              Was vince or the organization more at fault? Peddie & Babcock.
                              How good would we have been in Tmac stayed? Three-peat Champs, minimum.
                              Is Bosh a HOFer? Yes, but he's a still a Bish to me.
                              Should J.V get a ring? Cheap-ass Tanenbaum.
                              Why did casey start Handsbrough in a playoff game to guard paul pierce? Casey gonna Case.
                              How good is McCaw? Almost as good as Lorenzo Brown.
                              Jokic vs Embiid? In an eating contest.... Jokic.
                              DeRozan, Bargs and BC never made the 'controversial' list?

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                              • golden wrote: View Post

                                DeRozan, Bargs and BC never made the 'controversial' list?
                                I figured that the thoughts on those 3 would be pretty unanimous.
                                To be the champs you got to beat the champs

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