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Where Do The Raptors Rank In The East?

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  • #46
    DanH wrote: View Post

    Well, 45 wins would put us 5th if the top 5 stay the same. And even though it's actually both Kawhi and Danny going, it's not 82 games of Kawhi, either. Mostly, though, the difference is that last year's team was not a 58 win team. They had significant injuries to both Lowry and JV, and rested Kawhi for a quarter of the season - and ended at 58 wins. Now, there will likely be injuries this year too, but expecting injuries (and rest) to be on the same scale as last year is pessimistic, I think. If you call it a 60 win team (again, probably conservative), and Kawhi and Danny worth 15 wins, there's your 45 - and that assumes zero contribution from new players nor additional contribution from players stepping into larger roles.

    Not sure the Nets are significantly better than they were this season. The Heat are probably better, but have to be a lot better to get in that ~50 win conversation. Meanwhile, Celtics might be low 40's this year instead of high 40's, Indy might be better but also might be worse, and Orlando and Detroit haven't done anything yet to make me think they are a threat to move up the standings.
    I based my seeding prediction partially based on how the standings looked last year in terms of win distribution. 45 wins would be 6th place.

    Beyond that I think a less than rosey prediction is in order when we're talking Kawhi and Danny out of the mix and a bunch of rookie scrubs and blue collar underachievers replaces them. 45 is solid. Shit will happen this year and my 45 win prediction weighs that shit on the scale.

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    • #47
      Apollo wrote: View Post

      I based my seeding prediction partially based on how the standings looked last year in terms of win distribution. 45 wins would be 6th place.

      Beyond that I think a less than rosey prediction is in order when we're talking Kawhi and Danny out of the mix and a bunch of rookie scrubs and blue collar underachievers replaces them. 45 is solid. Shit will happen this year and my 45 win prediction weighs that shit on the scale.
      45 wins would only be 6th if there is a 58 win Raptor team in 2nd. If the 58 win Raptor team had 45 wins instead, they'd have been 5th.

      I also expect somewhere in the mid-high 40's in wins. But that's coin toss homecourt. 45 wins getting 6th... The last time a team ranked 6th or lower in the East with 45 or more wins was the 15-16 season, when 4 teams tied for 3rd with 48 wins and therefore one of them was ranked 6th. The most recent time besides that was in 2009-10, when the Bucks were 6th with 46 wins.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #48
        planetmars wrote: View Post
        Lots of people are discounting Orlando.. they had an awesome second half to the season and gave Toronto fits in the playoffs. Not much roster turn over either so chemistry will be great. Wouldn't be surprised if they are in the running for 3rd or 4th in the East.. although 5th or 6th is more likely. I like Orlando more than Miami.
        An awesome 2nd half to a season is shaky ground to base a prediction on. Remember when the Heat went 31-17 down the stretch of the 2016-17 season, so people thought they'd be a 50 win team the next year after finishing with 41 wins? They ended up with 44 wins the next season.

        Orlando is probably a low-40's win team again, unless they make a significant move. But it's always possible, teams surprise every year.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • #49
          Apollo wrote: View Post
          So 80% of the board feels the boys make it to 3rd-5th seed. For context, based on last year's standings we're saying 50 wins without Kawhi. So eight less wins without Kawhi in the mix. Not to mention that the Pacers are going to be threatening the Bucks for top seed and both the heat and Nets should be taking a step forward this coming season.

          I'm sticking with 6th seed and around 45 wins (three more wins than the 6th seed Nets had last year). Maybe I'm a pessimist.
          I seriously question the hype around the Pacers, at least until we know Oladipo is back at 100%. Without him, that's like a 43 win team.

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          • #50
            DanH wrote: View Post

            45 wins would only be 6th if there is a 58 win Raptor team in 2nd. If the 58 win Raptor team had 45 wins instead, they'd have been 5th.

            I also expect somewhere in the mid-high 40's in wins. But that's coin toss homecourt. 45 wins getting 6th... The last time a team ranked 6th or lower in the East with 45 or more wins was the 15-16 season, when 4 teams tied for 3rd with 48 wins and therefore one of them was ranked 6th. The most recent time besides that was in 2009-10, when the Bucks were 6th with 46 wins.
            You're assuming I haven't bumped someone else into that top five. Maybe we start there?

            Beyond that, I don't care about when the last time someone hit 45 wins and only claimed 6th. This is a year is could easily happen given the changes in the east. The east is getting better.

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            • #51
              slaw wrote: View Post

              I seriously question the hype around the Pacers, at least until we know Oladipo is back at 100%. Without him, that's like a 43 win team.
              I don't think Dipo will be 100% until sometime after Xmas but they have enough to roll over a bunch of teams. The additions of Brogdan, Warren and Lamb are significant plus Sabonis should continue to develop.

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              • #52
                Off season is not over of course.. but trying to plot down a very early standing prediction for the East.

                This is what I've got:

                1. Bucks
                2. 76ers
                3. Celtics
                4. Pacers
                5. Raptors
                6. Magic
                7. Nets
                8. Pistons
                9. Heat
                10. Hawks
                11. Bulls
                12. Cavs
                13. Wizards
                14. Hornets
                15. Knicks

                Flip flopped a few times from 3-14.. only teams I feel confident about are the Bucks, 76ers and Knicks (being really really bad).


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                • #53
                  planetmars wrote: View Post
                  Off season is not over of course.. but trying to plot down a very early standing prediction for the East.

                  This is what I've got:

                  1. Bucks
                  2. 76ers
                  3. Celtics
                  4. Pacers
                  5. Raptors
                  6. Magic
                  7. Nets
                  8. Pistons
                  9. Heat
                  10. Hawks
                  11. Bulls
                  12. Cavs
                  13. Wizards
                  14. Hornets
                  15. Knicks

                  Flip flopped a few times from 3-14.. only teams I feel confident about are the Bucks, 76ers and Knicks (being really really bad).

                  Heat with Butler and maaaaaybe Westbrook won't make playoffs? Hard for me to see that happening.
                  Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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                  • #54
                    MixxAOR wrote: View Post

                    Heat with Butler and maaaaaybe Westbrook won't make playoffs? Hard for me to see that happening.
                    I don't think the Heat get Westbrook.. I think he goes to the Pistons hence why I have them ahead.

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                    • #55
                      I mean the Heat won 44 games two seasons ago. They're as good as that team now, aren't they?

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                      • #56
                        SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                        Raps fans seem to discount their own players getting older, but never do the same for the competition. Lou Williams is still seen as a 6th man contender despite being 33 this season. Al Horford "isn't getting any younger" - also 33 years old this season. But Kyle and Gasol and Serge are written off for their "imminent decline".

                        Looking at the East, can Embiid stay healthy all season? Did Milwaukee and Philly do enough this offseason to take another step forward? Do DeAndre and Kyrie actually upgrade the Nets when they were already playing so well with Russell and their shot-sharing style?

                        Raptors proved they had what it takes to win games without Kawhi last year. I think we have the depth to do that consistently. Unless we start jettisoning our veterans, I'd be surprised if we don't hit 50 wins.
                        I am with you on Fat Joel and his impact on the Sixers this year.

                        My very biased opinion is that if he decides he is finally going to be a pro and get himself into cardio shape rather than what he has done so far (the mystery injury in the second round of the raptors is still puzzling) in his career he really elevates Philly's chances as not only a good pick to win it all but maybe the pick.

                        However if Joel continues to play class clown and doesn't put the work in at the gym and at the nutritionist table to get himself into the shape his contract career and talent demand ... The Hinkies with all that talent will fall short again.

                        This is Joels put up or shut up year.

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                        • #57
                          planetmars wrote: View Post

                          I don't think the Heat get Westbrook.. I think he goes to the Pistons hence why I have them ahead.
                          Gotcha makes sense
                          Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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                          • #58
                            planetmars wrote: View Post

                            I don't think the Heat get Westbrook.. I think he goes to the Pistons hence why I have them ahead.
                            Pistons where 8th seed without Westbrook, if they add Russ without loosing Drumond or Griffin, they're better than Boston, which I don't see in the top 5, probably better than Orlando too, maybe even better than Nets w/o KD.

                            Casey's a great regular season coach.



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                            • #59
                              Quirk wrote: View Post

                              Pistons where 8th seed without Westbrook, if they add Russ without loosing Drumond or Griffin, they're better than Boston, which I don't see in the top 5, probably better than Orlando too, maybe even better than Nets w/o KD.

                              Casey's a great regular season coach.


                              I think to make the trade that one of Drummond or Griffin has to go to make salary work.....
                              Still... a trade of hometown boy Blake Griffin back to OKC for Russell is not out of the realm...

                              time will tell where Westbrook goes...
                              He has assumed the role of Dwight Howard.. a guy that not many teams and players think he is an add or a guy to play with....
                              Fair or not... thats on Russell.

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                              • #60
                                Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

                                I think to make the trade that one of Drummond or Griffin has to go to make salary work.....
                                Still... a trade of hometown boy Blake Griffin back to OKC for Russell is not out of the realm...

                                time will tell where Westbrook goes...
                                He has assumed the role of Dwight Howard.. a guy that not many teams and players think he is an add or a guy to play with....
                                Fair or not... thats on Russell.
                                3 MVP/All-NBA calibre players have now left Westbrook for greener pastures. 2 in their primes. NBA players have the utmost respect for other players ..... especially the elite guys. Of all the negatives, that's the worst indictment of Russ.

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