Where Do The Raptors Rank In The East?

[Apollo]

So the FA period isn't over and anything can happen but based on the rosters and contracts it's likely Masai isn't doing some sort of aggressive all-in move to repeat. So, where do you think the Raptors rank in the east for the 2019-20 season and why?

Edit: A little something from Masai.

[RandomGuy]

Raptors will stay pat this year waiting for expiring contracts to end. I see this year as preparation for the future year, hence making the second round should be viewed as our minimum goal, but nothing too crazy when it comes to expectations. From Masai's interview that he's not going to flip everyone for assets.

Masai: "Assets are overrated"

[RandomGuy]

Oh just remembered that we don't have JV and Danny anymore, so it will be much tougher in the scoring department. I would change my vote to the 5th seed, to be honest.

[Puffer]

Lost Kawhi, JV, Delon, Jakob, CJ.

Gained Marc.

Win shares:
Kawhi: 9.5
JV: 4.2
Delon: 4.3
C. J.: 0.7

Total = 18.8 Win Share Lost

Marc: 6

Difference -11.8

Toronto won 58 games. Relying on win shares alone they could be projected to win 46 games. Last season the Indiana Pacers won 48 for 5th spot. The Brooklyn Nets won 42 for 6th.

I realize that this is very simplistic, but a lot of win shares left the team, and I don't see a lot coming back outside of internal development which may be offset by aging.

Finishing better than 6th would be overachieving in my opinion. Of course, the Raptors have made a habit of overachieving in the past. And Pascal and Fred could make significant leaps. OG may make a big step up as well.

We'll see. I'm going to enjoy myself no matter what. I'm a Raptors fan.

(edit: I originally included Jakob as a loss in my calcs, but his trade happened before the season and so does not count. Moves the Raptors from an 8th place finish to 6th. I have adjusted the result. Jakob's WS was 5.1 last season. Good job big fella.)

[Apollo]

I like the thought process and lots of good points above but what you're overlooking is player development. Pascal and OG could both take leaps forward. I mean Siakim is primed to be an all-star now with Kawhi out.

[Apollo]

Also, Marc is capable of more than he gave last year. He went from focal point to role player when he came to Toronto. He's more talented than a role player.

[Puffer]

Also, Marc is capable of more than he gave last year. He went from focal point to role player when he came to Toronto. He's more talented than a role player.

Marc's win share was 6 last season, for his career he's 7. But he did pull back on offense last year, His point total average per game was 15.7 with Memphis and 9.1 with Toronto. He could step it up a bit. Of course, he is older.

I did suggest "Pascal and Fred could make significant leaps. OG may make a big step up as well." We will have to see. I'd rather see them win more games than lose. But I expect them to finish no better than 5th, which means they are playing a higher seeded team in the playoffs. I think the difference between 1st to 4th and 5th to 8th will be significant this year because the top four will be quite a bit better than the bottom four.

I'd like to be wrong.

[WJF]

This is a good thread. Once Leonard left in FA I was a little bummed but knew we would still be a playoff team. I just never thought hard about where in the top 8 we would land. I feel a 3/4 seed is a good expectation. We have a great point guard combo and a solid vet tandem at the 5 spot. I would take those 4 guys vs. any other teams 4 guys at that position in the East and feel good about it. We have a young stud at the 4, who will be his back up? OG is unproven still, he needs to show he has consistency to be a starter. Do we see Norm start at the 2? The back ups at the 2, 3 4, will determine if we win 40 games or 50.

[Apollo]

Marc's win share was 6 last season, for his career he's 7. But he did pull back on offense last year, His point total average per game was 15.7 with Memphis and 9.1 with Toronto. He could step it up a bit. Of course, he is older.

I did suggest "Pascal and Fred could make significant leaps. OG may make a big step up as well." We will have to see. I'd rather see them win more games than lose. But I expect them to finish no better than 5th, which means they are playing a higher seeded team in the playoffs. I think the difference between 1st to 4th and 5th to 8th will be significant this year because the top four will be quite a bit better than the bottom four.

I'd like to be wrong.

All I'm saying is that this isn't as simple as a math equation, if that were the case scouting departments would look like server rooms. There's a lot more to this than whether Marc is a 6 or a 7. Statistics don't capture all things important unless we're talking fantasy sports and even then that's a precarious way to manage things.

If this were a simple math equation one would need to come up with a model to forecast player development's impact on win share.

[KHD]

i think they're still a top 4 team in the conference but there's possible future-oriented in-season moves (i.e. ibaka/gasol) that could drop that.

[Rudy Bargnani]

I like the thought process and lots of good points above but what you're overlooking is player development. Pascal and OG could both take leaps forward. I mean Siakim is primed to be an all-star now with Kawhi out.

It also overlooks regression and aging vets potentially getting worse. I hope that doesn’t happen but.....

[G__Deane]

Lost Kawhi, JV, Delon, Jakob, CJ.

Gained Marc.

Win shares:
Kawhi: 9.5
JV: 4.2
Delon: 4.3
C. J.: 0.7

Total = 18.8 Win Share Lost

Marc: 6

Difference -11.8

Toronto won 58 games. Relying on win shares alone they could be projected to win 46 games. Last season the Indiana Pacers won 48 for 5th spot. The Brooklyn Nets won 42 for 6th.

I realize that this is very simplistic, but a lot of win shares left the team, and I don't see a lot coming back outside of internal development which may be offset by aging.

Finishing better than 6th would be overachieving in my opinion. Of course, the Raptors have made a habit of overachieving in the past. And Pascal and Fred could make significant leaps. OG may make a big step up as well.

We'll see. I'm going to enjoy myself no matter what. I'm a Raptors fan.

(edit: I originally included Jakob as a loss in my calcs, but his trade happened before the season and so does not count. Moves the Raptors from an 8th place finish to 6th. I have adjusted the result. Jakob's WS was 5.1 last season. Good job big fella.)

This assumes that no others teams in the division made any moves and will end at the same won/loss level. Raps 4th or 5th. 1st or 2nd round out....a year where they could be upset by someone like the Celtics or Pacers

[planetmars]

I'm not sure how many games they win.. I always get that wrong.. but it all hinges on Lowry and how healthy he will be. Siakam will produce more as he'll have more usage. As will OG but he's basically a sophomore as last year was a huge write off for him. But I don't see Marc or Serge or Norm or Fred producing more.. they are who they are.

I see the Bucks and 76ers as the class of the East. 3rd to 8th will be wild.. Toronto, Boston, Indiana, Miami, Brooklyn, Orlando and Detroit (especially if they get Russ) will all be battling for positioning. Scheduling will matter. Health will obviously matter. Toronto is leaning older so that won't help. Also teams will be gunning for Toronto since they are the champs. But Nurse is a good coach and will keep them motivated. Raptors may have the best defense in the league even without Kawhi.

If I had to guess.. I say we'll be on the road in the first round of the playoffs. Either 5th or 6th in the East. Even without Kawhi I see them better than Brooklyn, Detroit, Miami and Orlando. Close to Indiana but not so much if they get Dipo back. Boston is a wild card. Horford was so good for them and he's gone. But chemistry will improve with Kemba. Hayward should be better.

[LJ2]

I'm accounting for Miami getting Russ, so have the Raps down to 6th seed. With our vets I think we'll be a better playoff team than a regular season. That could change if Pascal takes another big leap, as all things indicate he will be our primary scorer and new high usage player. I hope he's watching video of Giannis and stealing his moves.

Of the big contracts coming off the books next summer I think at least one of those players will be traded by the deadline. Masai knows that all the money in the world isn't going to convince the top free agents to come to Toronto, so my guess is that he isn't going to care to hold onto cap space for multiple max contracts. If an opportunity comes up to get some assets I think he finds a balance. This is still a championship roster minus one superstar. Masai is going to keep that seat warm for someone.

[Jclaw]