Trade or Run Out the String?

[Puffer]

Masai Ujiri has indicated he is inclined to run it back with the existing team, tweaking what he can. Of course, that may well be smoke for the fans and players. Are there advantages to doing that? As opposed to trading away the Dance Master, Master Chef MaFuzzy and Mr. Raptor?

There is a fair bit of momentum built up, in terms of engagement with the team and basketball, especially this season, with the Wold's coming up in September, more Canadians in the league, more Canadians potentially on the Raptors, a bigger contingent of Canadians in the NCAA after this past seasons 55, and maybe more Canadians getting drafted next year.

There is a reasonable chance the Raptors could finish with home advantage in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. There are playoff revenues to consider, and no payroll tax this season, with Danny and Kawhi's salaries coming off the books and being replaced with scrubs and low level developmental player contracts.

Would interest drop off if three of the top five players were traded away for picks at the trade deadline on February 6th? If the team was just playing out the string and giving their young players reps?

What kind of picks would other teams give up for any of these guys? Is there a reason to hang onto Lowry as a counterpoint to the trading of DeMar, to demonstrate continuity in the team? Or should Masai work to send Lowry and company to a contender so they have a shot at another Larry OB?

Just wondering what folks are thinking.

[G__Deane]

"Would interest drop off if three of the top five players were traded away for picks at the trade deadline on February 6th?"
3/4 of the "current" Raptor fans are bandwagon fans who will fade away this season and couldn't really care less about a 3rd or 4th place finish in the East and a first or second round exit. The arena will still sell out but the TV ratings are dropping through the floor, perhaps less than the Kyle/DD days.

They (we) expect more now. I'll still enjoy basketball but I want to dream about ECF and Finals again and I realistically can't with this roster. MLSE won't give up the playoff revenue or go full rebuild after the Chip but I'd look at trading Kyle, Gasol and Serge if the return was high end talent that matches up with and Siakam and OG's emergence/development. And I still don't think that elite telent is coming here as a FA

Just being real (buzzkill) here.

[DanH]

If they wait for the deadline to move all their vets, the market will probably shrink to where they can only find a good deal for one or two of them anyway. Heck, they've waited too long as it is, in all likelihood.

Ultimately, the choice to win or not will come down to whether they trade Lowry. Either of Gasol or Serge would be fine at C. No idea what the Raptors' intent is. Decision might be made for them - if they are killing it at the deadline, probably ride that wave. If they are sitting in the 6-8 range and the offence has scuttled or they've had some injuries, I imagine they sell, sell, sell.

[G__Deane]

If they wait for the deadline to move all their vets, the market will probably shrink to where they can only find a good deal for one or two of them anyway. Heck, they've waited too long as it is, in all likelihood.

Ultimately, the choice to win or not will come down to whether they trade Lowry. Either of Gasol or Serge would be fine at C. No idea what the Raptors' intent is. Decision might be made for them - if they are killing it at the deadline, probably ride that wave. If they are sitting in the 6-8 range and the offence has scuttled or they've had some injuries, I imagine they sell, sell, sell.

Hard salarie$ to move as well, especially Lowry's.

[golden]

Hard salarie$ to move as well, especially Lowry's.

Not that hard to move expiring salaries at the deadline, especially if you're willing to take back a bad contract. Only problem this year is that the 2020 free agent class sucks, so cap space isn't as desirable as it is in 2021.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Wonder if Masai thinks he can use them as salary ballasts this year in a deal for a star player. Maybe not a Kawhi level guy but an all-star.

[golden]

Wonder if Masai thinks he can use them as salary ballasts this year in a deal for a star player. Maybe not a Kawhi level guy but an all-star.

The Porzingis for cap-space deal comes to mind. But that was Knicks, lol, and last year's free agent class was unprecedented.

[planetmars]

Already broke down the "bad contracts" that end in 2021... not many. Batum, Hayward (depending on what you think of him), Adams, THJR are near the top.. than you have guys like Dieng, Fournier, James Johnson.. etc.. but they make about $15M or less.

Ultimately I think Masai just loses the 3/4 assets (depending on what you think of Fred). That will probably rile the fan base up a bit.. but it is what it is. We gain the cap space in 2020 and start fishing for 1 year deals.

As for stars.. its damn expensive. If Masai wants a star he should have given up Pascal, Lowry and a wack load of picks for Russ&PG and hope Kawhi stayed. Gone are the days of giving up a guy like DeMar and Poeltl for a 1 year flash in the pan. It won't happen again in the NBA. Even Davis got a ransom back - and he's a potential 1 year risk who only wanted to play for 1 team.

Raptors need to just play mediocre/playoff ball.. aim for the ECF but be thankful for a second round exit (as long as it's not a sweep). And just keep doing that until we hear of another guy that wants to leave.. and at that time hopefully the price isn't as high.

Most young "stars" are being locked up too. CJ McCollum just got a $100M extension from Portland. Beal was given one too (he hasn't signed yet). Who's left? Kevin Love? John Wall? Lol.

[LJ2]

Hard to say, but Masai knows that all the cap space in the world isn't going to attract the top tier free agents to sign with the Rap's. I can't see him just letting all the big contracts come off the books with nothing other than cap space to show for it. Definitely think he will wait and see what the team looks like in the new year.

[golden]

Already broke down the "bad contracts" that end in 2021... not many. Batum, Hayward (depending on what you think of him), Adams, THJR are near the top.. than you have guys like Dieng, Fournier, James Johnson.. etc.. but they make about $15M or less.

Ultimately I think Masai just loses the 3/4 assets (depending on what you think of Fred). That will probably rile the fan base up a bit.. but it is what it is. We gain the cap space in 2020 and start fishing for 1 year deals.

As for stars.. its damn expensive. If Masai wants a star he should have given up Pascal, Lowry and a wack load of picks for Russ&PG and hope Kawhi stayed. Gone are the days of giving up a guy like DeMar and Poeltl for a 1 year flash in the pan. It won't happen again in the NBA. Even Davis got a ransom back - and he's a potential 1 year risk who only wanted to play for 1 team.

Raptors need to just play mediocre/playoff ball.. aim for the ECF but be thankful for a second round exit (as long as it's not a sweep). And just keep doing that until we hear of another guy that wants to leave.. and at that time hopefully the price isn't as high.

Most young "stars" are being locked up too. CJ McCollum just got a $100M extension from Portland. Beal was given one too (he hasn't signed yet). Who's left? Kevin Love? John Wall? Lol.

We'll never know, but I'm skeptical how real that scenario actually was.

[planetmars]

Hard to say, but Masai knows that all the cap space in the world isn't going to attract the top tier free agents to sign with the Rap's. I can't see him just letting all the big contracts come off the books with nothing other than cap space to show for it. Definitely think he will wait and see what the team looks like in the new year.

The big fish is Giannis in 2021.. and if not him there are a lot of guys worthy of a max (like Dipo, Beal, Gobert, etc). I think he keeps at least enough for one max contract in 2021. It would be stupid not to.. It doesn't mean he has to get rid of everyone. I hope he can hold on to Kyle.. I doubt he keeps Serge and Marc. Fred is a wild card. He's important to the team but his next contract may make him too expensive and might hurt the bottom line 2 years from now - especially since Pascal will probably get the max too.

[KeonClark]

If they wait for the deadline to move all their vets, the market will probably shrink to where they can only find a good deal for one or two of them anyway. Heck, they've waited too long as it is, in all likelihood.

Ultimately, the choice to win or not will come down to whether they trade Lowry. Either of Gasol or Serge would be fine at C. No idea what the Raptors' intent is. Decision might be made for them - if they are killing it at the deadline, probably ride that wave. If they are sitting in the 6-8 range and the offence has scuttled or they've had some injuries, I imagine they sell, sell, sell.

And what of the perhaps most likely scenario, of somewhere in between. Being like last years Indiana...47ish wins, 3 to 5 seed?

[S.R.]

And what of the perhaps most likely scenario, of somewhere in between. Being like last years Indiana...47ish wins, 3 to 5 seed?

I think an optimistic non-homer forecast is a nice 2nd round run and if they're on course for that, they'll play it out. Unless a Kawhi 2.0 opportunity presents itself.

[Rudy Bargnani]

And what of the perhaps most likely scenario, of somewhere in between. Being like last years Indiana...47ish wins, 3 to 5 seed?

In my opinion if that’s where they are you play out the season and take your best swing in the playoffs. Unless a really good pick or young promising player is available. But I’m not dismantling the team for a future 2nd round pick. I’m less concerned about losing guys for nothing for the following reasons:

1) Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka could all be candidates for 1 year deals next summer at higher than market value deals. They could all come back and maintain flexibility for 2021.

2) The sign and trade was cool again this summer and could present some options to us next summer. IE—We have Lowry’s bird rights. Let’s pretend he wants to go to Philly but they don’t have cap space. Maybe a sign and trade happens and we end up with Richardson and a pick. Numbers wouldn’t work this trade deadline but could work next July.

3) There is still something to be said for mentoring our young players and helping them grow. OG had a terrible year last year off the court. If he was on a young rebuilding team maybe he doesn’t cope as well. Maybe if Siakam didn’t have Ibaka, Lowry, and Gasol to look up to he starts dating a Kardashian and hits the party scene too hard. Another year with the vets isn’t a bad thing.

If you get a great pick for them that’s one thing. But if not let’s run it back.

[KeonClark]

In my opinion if that’s where they are you play out the season and take your best swing in the playoffs. Unless a really good pick or young promising player is available. But I’m not dismantling the team for a future 2nd round pick. I’m less concerned about losing guys for nothing for the following reasons:

1) Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka could all be candidates for 1 year deals next summer at higher than market value deals. They could all come back and maintain flexibility for 2021.

2) The sign and trade was cool again this summer and could present some options to us next summer. IE—We have Lowry’s bird rights. Let’s pretend he wants to go to Philly but they don’t have cap space. Maybe a sign and trade happens and we end up with Richardson and a pick. Numbers wouldn’t work this trade deadline but could work next July.

3) There is still something to be said for mentoring our young players and helping them grow. OG had a terrible year last year off the court. If he was on a young rebuilding team maybe he doesn’t cope as well. Maybe if Siakam didn’t have Ibaka, Lowry, and Gasol to look up to he starts dating a Kardashian and hits the party scene too hard. Another year with the vets isn’t a bad thing.

If you get a great pick for them that’s one thing. But if not let’s run it back.

I think Lowry comes back closer to 15-20, him and Fred combined maybe make 35 to 40 million on their next deals. And yes I agree there's more value in keeping him in the fold than whatever crap you get for him, 2nd round pick likely. Its the other 2 that I think no way are they on the team in 2 years, Serge and Marc. There's not much value in either guy but who knows, if Marc is absolutely killing it, teams saw what he did last year. All the contenders that don't have a bonafide center should be interested.

But yeah at the end of the day I'd like to see how hungry the jilted Raptors are this year, how much of a scare we can put in teams