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Trade or Run Out the String?

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  • chris
    replied
    it depends on the value of the return of course but man it would depress the hell out of me if we traded the greatest player in franchise history for a bad expiring contract and two second rounders to avoid "losing the asset for nothing." and i don't see a massive haul being available for our guys.

    no we're not winning a title with next years team. but we could win 50 games, finish in the 3-5 seed, and push a team in the second round. there's dignity in that.

    start rebuilding proper next summer (or the next) around pascal and a fresh cap sheet. that's my preference.
    Last edited by chris; Wed Jul 31, 2019, 10:36 PM.

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  • Puffer
    replied
    inthepaint wrote: View Post
    Ultimate goal should be maximizing the ability to land a high-end free agent in 2021. For that, I think you need 3 things basically:

    1. Cap Space
    2. Winning Culture
    3. Another star to pair it (preferably young and on the rise or at its prime)...

    That said, if the right trade is available, you move the expirings. If it's just for a meh return though, retaining a winning culture becomes more valuable imo.

    The star to pair it, you hope its Siakam. If the cap space is large enough though, you might be able to attract 2 FA's (not necessarily 2 max players, but two high end guys), and retain Siakam.
    I think this is a nice summation. I hope OG has a breakthrough year and shows a steady progression of what we have seen glimpses of.

    It would be nice if Fred moves to another level and makes better decisions with the ball, and a lot quicker. I would also like to see 1 or more of the Undesireables (the undrafted, the forgotten, the hard luck kids) show a little sumthin sumthin this season. I would be okay with a trade deadline movement of a proven vet (Marc or Serge) particularly if one of the younger fellas showed they can partially fill the hole if if brings back a younger prospect or a bloated expiring low impact player and a pick at 15 or so. A team that thinks they have a shot and needs Marc or Serge to add some rim protection and scoring to make a push for the conference finals. Raptors wind up with two picks next spring, a chance for the bench to get extended minutes, maybe the second round and are in better shape for 2021.

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  • inthepaint
    replied
    Ultimate goal should be maximizing the ability to land a high-end free agent in 2021. For that, I think you need 3 things basically:

    1. Cap Space
    2. Winning Culture
    3. Another star to pair it (preferably young and on the rise or at its prime)

    We should have the cap space (unless they get greedy in the summer of 2020 and sign low-end players that will muck up the 2021 cap sheet)

    Winning culture will be preserved if we maintain Lowry/Serge/Gasol or at least 2 of them. If we make the playoffs in 2020 and 2021, Raptors will have made the playoffs for 7 years in a row, including a championship and an ECF appearance. I think that's the kinda culture/identity Masai is trying to build, to hopefully finally one day be able to attract and retain free-agents. It may not seem that important at times but that's part of the reason a Durant/Irving pairing go the Nets and not the Knicks. That said, if the right trade is available, you move the expirings. If it's just for a meh return though, retaining a winning culture becomes more valuable imo.

    The star to pair it, you hope its Siakam. If the cap space is large enough though, you might be able to attract 2 FA's (not necessarily 2 max players, but two high end guys), and retain Siakam.

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  • KeonClark
    replied
    Rudy Bargnani wrote: View Post

    In my opinion if that’s where they are you play out the season and take your best swing in the playoffs. Unless a really good pick or young promising player is available. But I’m not dismantling the team for a future 2nd round pick. I’m less concerned about losing guys for nothing for the following reasons:

    1) Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka could all be candidates for 1 year deals next summer at higher than market value deals. They could all come back and maintain flexibility for 2021.

    2) The sign and trade was cool again this summer and could present some options to us next summer. IE—We have Lowry’s bird rights. Let’s pretend he wants to go to Philly but they don’t have cap space. Maybe a sign and trade happens and we end up with Richardson and a pick. Numbers wouldn’t work this trade deadline but could work next July.

    3) There is still something to be said for mentoring our young players and helping them grow. OG had a terrible year last year off the court. If he was on a young rebuilding team maybe he doesn’t cope as well. Maybe if Siakam didn’t have Ibaka, Lowry, and Gasol to look up to he starts dating a Kardashian and hits the party scene too hard. Another year with the vets isn’t a bad thing.

    If you get a great pick for them that’s one thing. But if not let’s run it back.
    I think Lowry comes back closer to 15-20, him and Fred combined maybe make 35 to 40 million on their next deals. And yes I agree there's more value in keeping him in the fold than whatever crap you get for him, 2nd round pick likely. Its the other 2 that I think no way are they on the team in 2 years, Serge and Marc. There's not much value in either guy but who knows, if Marc is absolutely killing it, teams saw what he did last year. All the contenders that don't have a bonafide center should be interested.

    But yeah at the end of the day I'd like to see how hungry the jilted Raptors are this year, how much of a scare we can put in teams

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  • Rudy Bargnani
    replied
    KeonClark wrote: View Post

    And what of the perhaps most likely scenario, of somewhere in between. Being like last years Indiana...47ish wins, 3 to 5 seed?
    In my opinion if that’s where they are you play out the season and take your best swing in the playoffs. Unless a really good pick or young promising player is available. But I’m not dismantling the team for a future 2nd round pick. I’m less concerned about losing guys for nothing for the following reasons:

    1) Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka could all be candidates for 1 year deals next summer at higher than market value deals. They could all come back and maintain flexibility for 2021.

    2) The sign and trade was cool again this summer and could present some options to us next summer. IE—We have Lowry’s bird rights. Let’s pretend he wants to go to Philly but they don’t have cap space. Maybe a sign and trade happens and we end up with Richardson and a pick. Numbers wouldn’t work this trade deadline but could work next July.

    3) There is still something to be said for mentoring our young players and helping them grow. OG had a terrible year last year off the court. If he was on a young rebuilding team maybe he doesn’t cope as well. Maybe if Siakam didn’t have Ibaka, Lowry, and Gasol to look up to he starts dating a Kardashian and hits the party scene too hard. Another year with the vets isn’t a bad thing.

    If you get a great pick for them that’s one thing. But if not let’s run it back.

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  • S.R.
    replied
    KeonClark wrote: View Post

    And what of the perhaps most likely scenario, of somewhere in between. Being like last years Indiana...47ish wins, 3 to 5 seed?
    I think an optimistic non-homer forecast is a nice 2nd round run and if they're on course for that, they'll play it out. Unless a Kawhi 2.0 opportunity presents itself.

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  • KeonClark
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    If they wait for the deadline to move all their vets, the market will probably shrink to where they can only find a good deal for one or two of them anyway. Heck, they've waited too long as it is, in all likelihood.

    Ultimately, the choice to win or not will come down to whether they trade Lowry. Either of Gasol or Serge would be fine at C. No idea what the Raptors' intent is. Decision might be made for them - if they are killing it at the deadline, probably ride that wave. If they are sitting in the 6-8 range and the offence has scuttled or they've had some injuries, I imagine they sell, sell, sell.
    And what of the perhaps most likely scenario, of somewhere in between. Being like last years Indiana...47ish wins, 3 to 5 seed?

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  • planetmars
    replied
    LJ2 wrote: View Post
    Hard to say, but Masai knows that all the cap space in the world isn't going to attract the top tier free agents to sign with the Rap's. I can't see him just letting all the big contracts come off the books with nothing other than cap space to show for it. Definitely think he will wait and see what the team looks like in the new year.
    The big fish is Giannis in 2021.. and if not him there are a lot of guys worthy of a max (like Dipo, Beal, Gobert, etc). I think he keeps at least enough for one max contract in 2021. It would be stupid not to.. It doesn't mean he has to get rid of everyone. I hope he can hold on to Kyle.. I doubt he keeps Serge and Marc. Fred is a wild card. He's important to the team but his next contract may make him too expensive and might hurt the bottom line 2 years from now - especially since Pascal will probably get the max too.


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  • golden
    replied
    planetmars wrote: View Post
    Already broke down the "bad contracts" that end in 2021... not many. Batum, Hayward (depending on what you think of him), Adams, THJR are near the top.. than you have guys like Dieng, Fournier, James Johnson.. etc.. but they make about $15M or less.

    Ultimately I think Masai just loses the 3/4 assets (depending on what you think of Fred). That will probably rile the fan base up a bit.. but it is what it is. We gain the cap space in 2020 and start fishing for 1 year deals.

    As for stars.. its damn expensive. If Masai wants a star he should have given up Pascal, Lowry and a wack load of picks for Russ&PG and hope Kawhi stayed. Gone are the days of giving up a guy like DeMar and Poeltl for a 1 year flash in the pan. It won't happen again in the NBA. Even Davis got a ransom back - and he's a potential 1 year risk who only wanted to play for 1 team.

    Raptors need to just play mediocre/playoff ball.. aim for the ECF but be thankful for a second round exit (as long as it's not a sweep). And just keep doing that until we hear of another guy that wants to leave.. and at that time hopefully the price isn't as high.

    Most young "stars" are being locked up too. CJ McCollum just got a $100M extension from Portland. Beal was given one too (he hasn't signed yet). Who's left? Kevin Love? John Wall? Lol.
    We'll never know, but I'm skeptical how real that scenario actually was.
    Last edited by golden; Wed Jul 31, 2019, 03:29 PM.

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  • LJ2
    replied
    Hard to say, but Masai knows that all the cap space in the world isn't going to attract the top tier free agents to sign with the Rap's. I can't see him just letting all the big contracts come off the books with nothing other than cap space to show for it. Definitely think he will wait and see what the team looks like in the new year.

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  • planetmars
    replied
    Already broke down the "bad contracts" that end in 2021... not many. Batum, Hayward (depending on what you think of him), Adams, THJR are near the top.. than you have guys like Dieng, Fournier, James Johnson.. etc.. but they make about $15M or less.

    Ultimately I think Masai just loses the 3/4 assets (depending on what you think of Fred). That will probably rile the fan base up a bit.. but it is what it is. We gain the cap space in 2020 and start fishing for 1 year deals.

    As for stars.. its damn expensive. If Masai wants a star he should have given up Pascal, Lowry and a wack load of picks for Russ&PG and hope Kawhi stayed. Gone are the days of giving up a guy like DeMar and Poeltl for a 1 year flash in the pan. It won't happen again in the NBA. Even Davis got a ransom back - and he's a potential 1 year risk who only wanted to play for 1 team.

    Raptors need to just play mediocre/playoff ball.. aim for the ECF but be thankful for a second round exit (as long as it's not a sweep). And just keep doing that until we hear of another guy that wants to leave.. and at that time hopefully the price isn't as high.

    Most young "stars" are being locked up too. CJ McCollum just got a $100M extension from Portland. Beal was given one too (he hasn't signed yet). Who's left? Kevin Love? John Wall? Lol.

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  • golden
    replied
    Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
    Wonder if Masai thinks he can use them as salary ballasts this year in a deal for a star player. Maybe not a Kawhi level guy but an all-star.
    The Porzingis for cap-space deal comes to mind. But that was Knicks, lol, and last year's free agent class was unprecedented.

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  • Shaolin Fantastic
    replied
    Wonder if Masai thinks he can use them as salary ballasts this year in a deal for a star player. Maybe not a Kawhi level guy but an all-star.

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  • golden
    replied
    G__Deane wrote: View Post

    Hard salarie$ to move as well, especially Lowry's.
    Not that hard to move expiring salaries at the deadline, especially if you're willing to take back a bad contract. Only problem this year is that the 2020 free agent class sucks, so cap space isn't as desirable as it is in 2021.

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  • G__Deane
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    If they wait for the deadline to move all their vets, the market will probably shrink to where they can only find a good deal for one or two of them anyway. Heck, they've waited too long as it is, in all likelihood.

    Ultimately, the choice to win or not will come down to whether they trade Lowry. Either of Gasol or Serge would be fine at C. No idea what the Raptors' intent is. Decision might be made for them - if they are killing it at the deadline, probably ride that wave. If they are sitting in the 6-8 range and the offence has scuttled or they've had some injuries, I imagine they sell, sell, sell.
    Hard salarie$ to move as well, especially Lowry's.

    Leave a comment:

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