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  • DanH wrote: View Post
    Guys, I'd be real happy if this team manages average offence. Maybe you are right and Nick has some genius scheme prepared, but the bench couldn't score last season in Nurse's schemes and some of that bench is the starters now and their replacements are even worse scorers.
    Yeah, just doing some back of the napkin calculations and.... best case.... coming up with our offense losing about 2 points per 100 possessions. 2 points doesn't sound like a lot, but it drops you from 5th to 14th in the league, or thereabouts. That's best case. Gulp.

    Based on the new additions, it looks like we're going to try and make up the loss on offense, with defense, but that's going to be tough even to maintain last year's team DRTG. Not even talking about Kawhi's defense, because Danny Green was a regular season monster when you look at defensive impact stats (like D-PIPM). If we want to maintain a top 10 defense, we're probably going to need to start Stanley Johnson at SF, because OG's impact on defense isn't as great as people think. And Gasol has to be that high IQ conductor getting everybody to play together flawlessly. PIPM still ain't easy.

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    • golden wrote: View Post

      Yeah, just doing some back of the napkin calculations and.... best case.... coming up with our offense losing about 2 points per 100 possessions. 2 points doesn't sound like a lot, but it drops you from 5th to 14th in the league, or thereabouts. That's best case. Gulp.

      Based on the new additions, it looks like we're going to try and make up the loss on offense, with defense, but that's going to be tough even to maintain last year's team DRTG. Not even talking about Kawhi's defense, because Danny Green was a regular season monster when you look at defensive impact stats (like D-PIPM). If we want to maintain a top 10 defense, we're probably going to need to start Stanley Johnson at SF, because OG's impact on defense isn't as great as people think. And Gasol has to be that high IQ conductor getting everybody to play together flawlessly. PIPM still ain't easy.
      There's a lot of assumptions, though, in these kinds of projections. This isn't exactly a 12-man roster we know a lot about at the moment in terms of how they will play together and we don't know the ceiling for Siakam, OG, FVV or even a guy like Powell at the moment. Thomas is a wild card and you've got guys like RHJ and Johnson looking to kickstart careers. Plus, you've got Gasol, Lowry and Ibaka all in contract years.

      There's a lot of dynamics at play.

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      • Gonzz wrote: View Post

        My guess is 10-15. How about defence? Top 5.
        Top 10.

        Which of the expected non-starters beats out any of the expected starters by end of the regular season?

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        • LJ2 wrote: View Post

          Top 10.

          Which of the expected non-starters beats out any of the expected starters by end of the regular season?
          Answering the previous question first. I think we'll be a top 5 defense, but bottom 20 offense. I love our defensive potential even more so than last year, even though we had Kawhi (Kawhi's wasn't trying so hard on defense in the regular season). I still scratch my head trying to figure out how we're going to score consistently.

          Assuming the starters are: Marc/Pascal/OG/Norm/Kyle... than I'll go with Fred. Nurse loves Fred, and I can see him replacing Norm by seasons end. Norm is so inconsistent. I heard that Nurse was raving about him. But it's his 5th year in the league now. By now you pretty much are who you are.

          Q: Does Pascal ever get on the NBA MVP ladder this year (top 10 player in the league at any point per nba.com)?

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          • planetmars wrote: View Post

            Answering the previous question first. I think we'll be a top 5 defense, but bottom 20 offense. I love our defensive potential even more so than last year, even though we had Kawhi (Kawhi's wasn't trying so hard on defense in the regular season). I still scratch my head trying to figure out how we're going to score consistently.

            Assuming the starters are: Marc/Pascal/OG/Norm/Kyle... than I'll go with Fred. Nurse loves Fred, and I can see him replacing Norm by seasons end. Norm is so inconsistent. I heard that Nurse was raving about him. But it's his 5th year in the league now. By now you pretty much are who you are.

            Q: Does Pascal ever get on the NBA MVP ladder this year (top 10 player in the league at any point per nba.com)?
            Top 10? Yeah, I think early on the Raps exceed expectations, still a lot of continuity and doesn't seem to be any hangover; Pascal is the best player on one of the best teams early before the "new" teams start to click. That being said, it's not for long and hes closer to 10 than 1.

            BTW, agree on Norm being the odd man out, McCaw interests me a bit as a dark horse just cause he is in a similar boat to OG coming into the year and Nurse has been talking him up.

            When the Lowry trade rumors start, what team gets the most buzz?

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            • DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post

              Top 10? Yeah, I think early on the Raps exceed expectations, still a lot of continuity and doesn't seem to be any hangover; Pascal is the best player on one of the best teams early before the "new" teams start to click. That being said, it's not for long and hes closer to 10 than 1.

              BTW, agree on Norm being the odd man out, McCaw interests me a bit as a dark horse just cause he is in a similar boat to OG coming into the year and Nurse has been talking him up.

              When the Lowry trade rumors start, what team gets the most buzz?
              I think Lowry will retire a Raptor.

              Who's our starting 2 guard, and who's our backup 2 guard?
              What it do baybeeee!!

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              • planetmars wrote: View Post

                Answering the previous question first. I think we'll be a top 5 defense, but bottom 20 offense. I love our defensive potential even more so than last year, even though we had Kawhi (Kawhi's wasn't trying so hard on defense in the regular season). I still scratch my head trying to figure out how we're going to score consistently.

                Assuming the starters are: Marc/Pascal/OG/Norm/Kyle... than I'll go with Fred. Nurse loves Fred, and I can see him replacing Norm by seasons end. Norm is so inconsistent. I heard that Nurse was raving about him. But it's his 5th year in the league now. By now you pretty much are who you are.

                Q: Does Pascal ever get on the NBA MVP ladder this year (top 10 player in the league at any point per nba.com)?
                No to the Pascal question - unless the Bucks or Philly somehow implode or are riddled with injuries and we somehow find ourselves and 1 or 2 seed, then he might. He'll make the all-star though.

                As for our offence this year, there will be net dropoff for sure, but there are some wildcard factors that are outside the stats/number crunching, but can make a difference and mitigate that loss:


                1. Guys on contract year - we've got 4 rotation players of a championship roster on contract years (Lowry, Gasol, Ibaka & Fred)

                2. Presence of a high-end 3-pt shooter, but unknown in the NBA (Thomas). The 3-ball is a high variance shot, but if it breaks our way and he's impactful, that helps, not only in terms of raw production but in spacing for other guys to operate

                3. Unknown development of the younger guys. Nobody anticipated Pascal would be this player last pre-season. He became that, and made the championship possible. I don't think we're gonna get another Pascal leap anywhere in the roster, but internal development within the Raptors org is typically more impactful then in other places.

                4. More oxygen in the room without Kawhi, and guys playing more loose after the championship. Losing a player like Kawhi is always a net loss, but like any dominant high usage player, the mere fact that he was on the court would take away touches and sometimes give the impression that other guys were too reigned in (Gasol & Lowry comes to mind). Now that he's not there there's a natural vacuum to fill, more shots/touches available to guys that are hungry, but also more relaxed/loose after the title.


                ==Glad to have doubted the doubters==

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                • The Great One wrote: View Post

                  I think Lowry will retire a Raptor.

                  Who's our starting 2 guard, and who's our backup 2 guard?
                  I'm pulling for Terence Davis to earn the starting SG spot for no other reason than the skill set he has being the closest thing to a true SG. The guy reminds me a bit of Bradley Beal with his ability to shoot the 3, handle the ball, and finish around the rim. Back-up SG will be by committee, the same as the back-up SF.

                  Now that Kawhi is gone and nobody to hold Simmons in check, what will the Raptors record against Philly be this season?

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                  • LJ2 wrote: View Post

                    I'm pulling for Terence Davis to earn the starting SG spot for no other reason than the skill set he has being the closest thing to a true SG. The guy reminds me a bit of Bradley Beal with his ability to shoot the 3, handle the ball, and finish around the rim. Back-up SG will be by committee, the same as the back-up SF.

                    Now that Kawhi is gone and nobody to hold Simmons in check, what will the Raptors record against Philly be this season?
                    The Raps' record against Philly will be 4-0 because we OWN THEM. THE PROCESS NEVER LEAVES.

                    Will Nick Nurse be in the running for coach of the year?

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