I'm thinking it's a 75%-ish chance.
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I voted a 70% chance. The Miami report - if you think that it's credible at all- shows that he's out there playing the game of free agency at the very least. I still don't think there's a lot of realistic landing spots for him outside of the Raptors based on cap room, need for a PG, current state of team, etc. so I'd say that Toronto is still the odds on favourite.
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I voted 50/60. I think there's a slightly better than even chance he re-signs. But I also think there are too many teams chasing too few stars and he'll be the best consolation prize remaining. If we aren't aggressive he will leave.
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