Canada Basketball

[stretch]

[jerome]

Venezuela up by 6 midway through the third.

Mexico has been playing with pretty much 7 players the entire tournament, they may not be over rated, but they are definitely running out of gas.

[guyroch]

Venezuela up by 6 midway through the third.

Mexico has been playing with pretty much 7 players the entire tournament, they may not be over rated, but they are definitely running out of gas.

Close games means starters playing a lot of minutes

[octothorp]

Venezuela up by 6 midway through the third.

Mexico has been playing with pretty much 7 players the entire tournament, they may not be over rated, but they are definitely running out of gas.

Yeah, I'm hoping Mexico can pull this out. Canada needs Mexico to win to have a realistic shot at first in the round robin. Because Argentina is unlikely to lose both of its last two, and Canada can't get the two-way tie-breaker over Argentina, so Canada's best shot at first is a three-way tiebreaker between Canada, Mexico, and Argentina that comes down to head-to-head points differential. We need Mexico to win today and Wednesday over Argentina, and of course beat Mexico ourselves, and then we need to have the most points in those games between tied teams.

[jerome]

Yeah, I'm hoping Mexico can pull this out. Canada needs Mexico to win to have a realistic shot at first in the round robin. Because Argentina is unlikely to lose both of its last two, and Canada can't get the two-way tie-breaker over Argentina, so Canada's best shot at first is a three-way tiebreaker between Canada, Mexico, and Argentina that comes down to head-to-head points differential. We need Mexico to win today and Wednesday over Argentina, and of course beat Mexico ourselves, and then we need to have the most points in those games between tied teams.

Mexico could realistically lose its last three games and finish 4-3. If Venezuela win today they have a good chance of beating one of Panama and Uruguay and also finish 4-3 and get the third seed based on tie-breakers.

[octothorp]

Mexico could realistically lose its last three games and finish 4-3. If Venezuela win today they have a good chance of beating Panama and Uruguay and also finish 4-3 and get the third seed based on tie-breakers.

Interesting, that's a scenario I hadn't considered.

[jerome]

Interesting, that's a scenario I hadn't considered.

and based on the way Mexico is playing, it'll be hard for them to beat Argentina, and Canada would run their tired legs completely out of the gym.

[octothorp]

Although if Mexico does lose and cease to be a threat for first overall, that means there's no risk at all for Argentina (assuming they win tomorrow) in that last game, and they could give Scola a rest that game, essentially two days off going into the playoffs. But a scenario where Argentina must win to secure first probably forces them to play Scola big minutes.

Although all that really matters to me is avoiding Argentina in the semis.

[octothorp]

That's that. Mexico wins by 3. Hopefully we pound Mexico early tomorrow, and they fold up and rest their starters for the Argentina game, and then either beat Argentina or at least force them into not resting Scola and their other vets.

Hey, Mexico might even decide that trying to set up a Argentina-Mexico semi-final matchup is better for them than a Canada-Mexico semifinal. (Not that they would intentionally lose to Canada, but if the game was looking like an unlikely win early on...)

[jerome]

Although if Mexico does lose and cease to be a threat for first overall, that means there's no risk at all for Argentina (assuming they win tomorrow) in that last game, and they could give Scola a rest that game, essentially two days off going into the playoffs. But a scenario where Argentina must win to secure first probably forces them to play Scola big minutes.

Although all that really matters to me is avoiding Argentina in the semis.

Mexico pulled out a really close win. They've had some late-game lucky bounces recently.

As long as we beat Mexico tomorrow and DR on Wednesday we'll finish at least 2nd. Then if Mexico full off a win against Argentina we'll finish 1st (we already have the highest point differential, leading the second best team by 50 points). If not, we face Mexico in the semis.

[stretch]

It's almost a lock that it will be Canada/Mexico and Argentina/Venezuela in the semis.

[octothorp]

Mexico pulled out a really close win. They've had some late-game lucky bounces recently.

As long as we beat Mexico tomorrow and DR on Wednesday we'll finish at least 2nd. Then if Mexico full off a win against Argentina we'll finish 1st (we already have the highest point differential, leading the second best team by 50 points). If not, we face Mexico in the semis.

I think tiebreakers go wins in games between tied teams (we'd each have one); and then goal-average in games amongst tied teams. So for that tiebreaker, we're essentially at minus 7, Argentina is plus 7, and Mexico is 0. So if the amount we beat Mexico by plus the amount Mexico beats Argentina by is 8 or greater, and the amount we beat Mexico by is greater than the amount Mexico beats Argentina by, we would win that tiebreaker.

edit: actually, fiba uses goal average rather than goal differential, so the exact calculation above isn't quite correct... you'd take points scored divided by points allowed in the three games between the tied teams.

[jerome]

I think tiebreakers go wins in games between tied teams (we'd each have one); and then goal-average in games amongst tied teams. So for that tiebreaker, we're essentially at minus 7, Argentina is plus 7, and Mexico is 0. So if the amount we beat Mexico by plus the amount Mexico beats Argentina by is 8 or greater, and the amount we beat Mexico by is greater than the amount Mexico beats Argentina by, we would win that tiebreaker.

Good to know. If we can play at our pace against Mexico we will win by 20+.

[guyroch]

It's almost a lock that it will be Canada/Mexico and Argentina/Venezuela in the semis.

I guess if Argentina beats Dominican Republic Canada clinches a semi final berth ... Crazy Argentina can only lose one game in this tournament and will be out the Olympics ..

Saying that the teams 3 to 5 in this tournament will qualify for the 2016 FIBA World Olympic Qualifying Tournament for Men .. Top two spots in that tourney go to the Olympics ..

[rocwell]

"He needs a parachute to come down"