To trade or not to trade

[DanH]

we are 4th in the east with a team comprised of mostly role players... all I'm saying is shuffle up the end of the bench and get some actual NBA players on the team so we can at least see what the ceiling of this squad is.

Which players on this team are not actual NBA players?

If the argument is to replace McCaw and Johnson with high quality role players, uh, sure, but how? If the discussion is about Serge, he's a quality NBA backup. As is Norm. Most of our cheap depth looks to be worthy of an NBA rotation.

[DanH]

Roles and minutes, especially in the case of FVV, can be largely based on a coaches decision and who else is on the roster. Take a guy like George Hill (who's making only $8M/year). He's an above average 2-way PG with efficiency off-the-charts this year. He's a backup on the Bucks because they have Bledsoe and the Bucks want more size at the 2 spot, so Hill is dominating as a legit backup PG.

If Hill was on the Raptors, he could easily be starting and putting up numbers at efficiency greater than FVV. So, if you want to talk about apples-to-apples, there's a guy with exactly FVV's skillset contributing major production on the top team in the NBA. The only difference between Hill and FVV is minutes and usage. These type of guys are available every year, as Hill was signed for a fraction of the cost just this off-season.

Point being, you could plug a number of guys from different teams into the Raptors and they'd be easily matching or surpassing what FVV brings.

You think if Hill was placed on the Raptors and asked to do what they ask FVV to do he'd maintain his efficiency? Is there any evidence to support that? Fred is carrying a 23% usage - with his ~30% assist ratio that's ball park 50% of the offence he is being asked to be primarily involved in. That's way too high for him and it's killing his efficiency (although he is still maintaining a positive impact with a 110 individual ORTG with that too-high usage).

Hill has an incredible efficiency (which will definitely drop off, he's not going to shoot 51% from 3 all year) mostly because he's not being asked to do anything. He's primarily involved in only about 30% of the offence. His direct usage of 15% is wildly different from the role FVV has been in. And even lower than the role Fred would ideally be in (18-20% or so).

Anyway, as we've covered before, yes, if you want to find a guard who can score in inefficient bunches, or a guard who can score at a nice clip on low usage, yeah, you can find that cheap. Generally those players will be below average to terrible defenders who can only play off the bench on a successful team, especially in the playoffs as teams start to target weaker defenders. Hill falls into that category. And also, no one knows which of those players will actually be those players every year - some few of those cheap signings turn out to be great role players. Most don't.

But Fred can be a high efficiency player off the ball, or play on the ball and put up volume on lower but acceptable efficiency while also creating for others to some degree, and he does it all while being one of the top guard defenders in the league. That's the difference. We need to stop excluding defence from the definition of FVV's skillset because defence is where he makes most of his contributions.

[DanH]

I still think we should offer Fred and Serge for Jrue Holiday and a protected first. People said in November New Orleans wouldn't be interested in VanVleet but I think they would be now. It raises our ceiling considerably. Siakam-Jrue-Kyle is a legit big 3 that can go at anyone in the East this side of the Bucks. Norm slots in comfortably as bench back court scorer. More minutes for Terrence Davis as a ball handler. And Jrue can take over for Kyles scoring as he ages.

Also ends up saving us cap money, gets us something for Serge and we don't have to pay Fred, thats (essentially) like 45+ million outgoing vs 26 million incoming.

It would suck, still a tough pill to swallow because the chemistry of the team is great and I love both Ibaka and FVV, but our ceiling would be raised, as well our offense and defense, so if we wanna take a swing at this year AND keep a sexy core for free agency 2021, thats a good way of doing it

How does that deal save us cap money? The baseline assumption should be that Serge walks this summer and FVV re-signs. 26M is a pretty high estimate of what FVV would sign for, don't you think? I guess actually you'd have to assume he signs essentially for his max to really see any cap savings.

I'm not sure the team gets better defensively with that move. FVV is really good defensively, we probably actually get a little worse on that end. Even offensively, for all the crying about FVV's lack of efficiency this year, Jrue's career high in individual ORTG is basically tied with FVV's current year, and is significantly lower this year. Fred's got a rough 53% TS% this year, but Jrue's at 51% this year, and his peak was up between 55-57% the two years prior to this one, but throughout his career he's been a low-to-mid-fifties TS% guy. He can carry a usage (his entire career has him in the low-to-mid-20's, with a peak year of 28%), but his playmaking is comparable to what Fred is doing now (about 30% AST% the past few years), and his turnover rates are consistently higher than Fred's regardless of usage rate. Meanwhile his 3 point success rate is very low for a guard and he'll hurt our spacing when he's not on the ball - he hasn't been a good three point shooter since 2014-15.

Throw in that he's 30 this spring and Fred is 26 next month and I don't see the appeal. If we want to add a draft pick we can do so without selling Fred.

More minutes for Terry as a ball handler is a bad thing. He should be easing into that role, the value he provides right now is as a shooter.

I don't see that move as an obvious win at all.

[planetmars]

I'd like to try to swap someone like McCaw (but I doubt he'd have value) and a 2nd rounder for Ish Smith. You think the Wizards would go for that? Ish Smith would be a great backup PG on this team. Veteran guy who's only making $6M a year, and has a deal for next season too.

Really small trade but if Fred's negotiations go bad and he walks or stone walls us, we have Ish Smith to help us out for next season.

[DanH]

I'd like to try to swap someone like McCaw (but I doubt he'd have value) and a 2nd rounder for Ish Smith. You think the Wizards would go for that? Ish Smith would be a great backup PG on this team. Veteran guy who's only making $6M a year, and has a deal for next season too.

Really small trade but if Fred's negotiations go bad and he walks or stone walls us, we have Ish Smith to help us out for next season.

I think I'd prefer to just give more time to Terry. Once healthy we aren't as short on ball handling as we look right now.

I don't even like McCaw but Ish isn't great either and I don't like trading draft assets to improve on roster spots that in theory won't be used in the playoffs.

[golden]

You think if Hill was placed on the Raptors and asked to do what they ask FVV to do he'd maintain his efficiency? Is there any evidence to support that? Fred is carrying a 23% usage - with his ~30% assist ratio that's ball park 50% of the offence he is being asked to be primarily involved in. That's way too high for him and it's killing his efficiency (although he is still maintaining a positive impact with a 110 individual ORTG with that too-high usage).

Hill has an incredible efficiency (which will definitely drop off, he's not going to shoot 51% from 3 all year) mostly because he's not being asked to do anything. He's primarily involved in only about 30% of the offence. His direct usage of 15% is wildly different from the role FVV has been in. And even lower than the role Fred would ideally be in (18-20% or so).

Anyway, as we've covered before, yes, if you want to find a guard who can score in inefficient bunches, or a guard who can score at a nice clip on low usage, yeah, you can find that cheap. Generally those players will be below average to terrible defenders who can only play off the bench on a successful team, especially in the playoffs as teams start to target weaker defenders. Hill falls into that category. And also, no one knows which of those players will actually be those players every year - some few of those cheap signings turn out to be great role players. Most don't.

But Fred can be a high efficiency player off the ball, or play on the ball and put up volume on lower but acceptable efficiency while also creating for others to some degree, and he does it all while being one of the top guard defenders in the league. That's the difference. We need to stop excluding defence from the definition of FVV's skillset because defence is where he makes most of his contributions.

Yep. Plenty of evidence. George Hill has been over 23% USG twice in his career and he put up stellar efficiencies of: 117 (IND) & 119 (UTA) both times. Those are numbers that FVV could only dream about. And Hill didn't have 3 elite playmakers (Lowry, Siakam & Gasol) to do the heavy lifting for him after he dribbles 14 seconds off the clock.

Even at 33, George Hill is still a legit NBA quality starting point guard, a knock down 3-pt shooter and very good defender. He's proven himself on 3 different teams in a myriad of systems & coaches, surrounded by good and bad teammates. FVV has a tiny window where plays well, when he's surrounding by top-notch players covering for his weaknesses in a role that's perfectly suited to him. Siakam being out has exposed those weaknesses.

Again, not saying that George Hill is a superstar or anything, but he's an excellent role player and a perfect comp for FVV, in terms of: salary, performance & role/fit. These type of guys are typically available on the trade market or as 3rd/4th tier free agents.

[planetmars]

I think I'd prefer to just give more time to Terry. Once healthy we aren't as short on ball handling as we look right now.

I don't even like McCaw but Ish isn't great either and I don't like trading draft assets to improve on roster spots that in theory won't be used in the playoffs.

Yesterday was a good example. We as fans like TD, but Nurse has a long leash with him. And he's giving the shorter leash to McCaw. The best solution is to force his hand. Ish Smith is a veteran guard. He's not great, but he's at least reliable enough to help. If the Wizards are looking at tanking, swapping a guy like Smith for a worse player but younger is probably a good move. Plus Wall will be back next year which should reduce Smith's minutes as well.

2nd rounder's were given away last year to duck the tax. I think a small tiny gain this year is worth it for a pick in the 50's.

Plus Fred has been hurt twice now this season. Would like to be able to compete in the playoffs in case Fred gets banged up again. He plays too hard, and has sort of become injury prone now. It was only 2 years ago where he missed the entire playoffs because he got nailed by Bam on a screen. I'd like to get some insurance just in case.. and McCaw is definitely not the answer (and he will be even with TD on the bench because Nurse will be Nurse - he can't help himself).

[LJ2]

I dunno if Ish Smith is going to be the difference between winning or losing a round in the playoffs. I doubt it though. I'm of the opinion that unless you are trading for a player you plan to keep for a long time or a draft pick then don't bother tinkering with small moves. Especially if it means you're taking on more salary.

All I want to see is the Raptors land a running mate for Siakam for hopefully the long haul. Need to set the base for the future and with all these big contracts coming off the books, the Raptors seemingly are in a unique position right now to do so.

Blazers have to be pretty desperate right now. Not sure if this leaves coin for Giannis (or can be done) but how about FVV, Norm and Serge for CJ and Nurk? Serge comes off the books at the end of the season which gives Portland gets some breathing room...I think they're over the cap. But for this season it gives them a chance to make the playoffs and potentially do some damage in the first round, as well as keep their star happy. FVV and Norm can fill the scoring void CJ leaves behind. Raptors get someone around Siakam's age and a dependable 20pts a night. Nurk is still injured so this year's playoff bid takes a hit with no Serge, but what are the expectations here anyway? We need to look at the future.

If I'm Giannis then playing alongside Siakam,CJ and Lowry looks real good to me.

Lowry, CJ, OG, Siakam, Giannis

[c-troop]

I'd like to try to swap someone like McCaw (but I doubt he'd have value) and a 2nd rounder for Ish Smith. You think the Wizards would go for that? Ish Smith would be a great backup PG on this team. Veteran guy who's only making $6M a year, and has a deal for next season too.

Really small trade but if Fred's negotiations go bad and he walks or stone walls us, we have Ish Smith to help us out for next season.

Which players on this team are not actual NBA players?

If the argument is to replace McCaw and Johnson with high-quality role players, uh, sure, but how? If the discussion is about Serge, he's a quality NBA backup. As is Norm. Most of our cheap depth looks to be worthy of an NBA rotation.

McCaw and Stanly combined are worth 7.6M dollars. That's a lot of money to have just chewing up the end of the bench with negative production.

DanH, you're high on Terence Davis right? Me too, he's sick. And he was undrafted. And so was VanVleet.
If any team knows how gassed up draft picks are it should be us.

Why hang onto some 2nd rounders and expensive scrubs when we could provide our team with quality insurance and a little extra production. I like the Ish Smith shoutout and I think a player like that will make us better. It's not Kawhi, sure, but we would still be an unpredictably better team and it costs us next to nothing. Also, we still have players in the 905 machine. It's not like we don't have prospects worth more than some measly 2nd rounders in the woodworks already trying to crack the squad.

I get it, Terence could get more minutes too, but why not go grab some extra insurance and shake things up a bit?

No real reason to stay stagnant, and I think a compromise of all positive-minded ideas will only help better this team for the upcoming playoff run.

Not every team makes the playoffs, why take it for granted?

Lastly, to answer your question bluntly, Miller, McCaw, Stanley Johnson, Hernandez, our 2-way guys are all, in my opinion, not quality NBA competition.
At least not yet.

[DanH]

Lastly, to answer your question bluntly, Miller, McCaw, Stanley Johnson, Hernandez, our 2-way guys are all, in my opinion, not quality NBA competition.
At least not yet.

I think this means you have a higher bar for player quality than the NBA does. Miller, McCaw, and Brissett are all clearly NBA quality players. Miller IMO is as well, though it is less clear. Ponds and Hernandez, sure, but they are developmental pieces. Johnson it can be argued either way.

Just because guys aren't good enough to be rotation players for a contender doesn't mean they aren't NBA players. There are 30 teams and 15 spots on each.

[DanH]

Yep. Plenty of evidence. George Hill has been over 23% USG twice in his career and he put up stellar efficiencies of: 117 (IND) & 119 (UTA) both times. Those are numbers that FVV could only dream about. And Hill didn't have 3 elite playmakers (Lowry, Siakam & Gasol) to do the heavy lifting for him after he dribbles 14 seconds off the clock.

Even at 33, George Hill is still a legit NBA quality starting point guard, a knock down 3-pt shooter and very good defender. He's proven himself on 3 different teams in a myriad of systems & coaches, surrounded by good and bad teammates. FVV has a tiny window where plays well, when he's surrounding by top-notch players covering for his weaknesses in a role that's perfectly suited to him. Siakam being out has exposed those weaknesses.

Again, not saying that George Hill is a superstar or anything, but he's an excellent role player and a perfect comp for FVV, in terms of: salary, performance & role/fit. These type of guys are typically available on the trade market or as 3rd/4th tier free agents.

George Hill is a great example for why grabbing a guy like that is a coin toss at best, not a real floor in terms of being easily replaceable on the market. Those two seasons you mention? 2014-15 and 2016-17. 3 and 5 years ago. Is your position that George Hill is the same player at 33 years old that he was in his prime? And the seasons immediately following them? Those two seasons he posted WS/48 numbers of .203 and .182, crazy numbers. The seasons immediately following those two? .118 and .085. Consistency thy name is not George Hill. And George Hill is probably the absolute best example you could have grabbed for your point, with all the benefit of hindsight. Go look at the list of low salary signings every year and explain to me how you can guarantee yourself a George Hill every offseason, let along a George Hill in a good year.

George Hill is at best an average defender at this point. At best.

Fred has not played in the role best suited for him since his rookie year, and yet here we are and he's going to get paid based on his production outside of that role.

[DanH]

Yesterday was a good example. We as fans like TD, but Nurse has a long leash with him. And he's giving the shorter leash to McCaw. The best solution is to force his hand. Ish Smith is a veteran guard. He's not great, but he's at least reliable enough to help. If the Wizards are looking at tanking, swapping a guy like Smith for a worse player but younger is probably a good move. Plus Wall will be back next year which should reduce Smith's minutes as well.

2nd rounder's were given away last year to duck the tax. I think a small tiny gain this year is worth it for a pick in the 50's.

Plus Fred has been hurt twice now this season. Would like to be able to compete in the playoffs in case Fred gets banged up again. He plays too hard, and has sort of become injury prone now. It was only 2 years ago where he missed the entire playoffs because he got nailed by Bam on a screen. I'd like to get some insurance just in case.. and McCaw is definitely not the answer (and he will be even with TD on the bench because Nurse will be Nurse - he can't help himself).

McCaw is definitely not the answer, but neither is any player you can trade McCaw and a 50-something 2nd for. Ish Smith is bad and if he were here we'd be saying the same thing about needing a different depth guard.

I'm of the opinion that what will make or break the playoffs for us is our health, and specifically the health of our top guys. I'm also of the opinion that if our top guys aren't healthy, it will make no difference if we have a terrible or simply very bad player to step into their place. We're good but we have a narrow margin for error, specifically in terms of scoring. If we want to change the equation in the playoffs, we should go hunting for really, really good players. I don't think there will be trades of that sort out there that make sense for us both long and short term, though.

Like, I wouldn't be opposed to swapping McCaw and a 2nd for Smith. I just... don't really see the point. Frankly better to use that same pick to try to straight up dump McCaw so they play Davis more, rather than providing another subpar vet to play in front of the young players we should be hoping develop into larger roles.

[MixxAOR]

Answer is Jrue Holiday

[golden]

George Hill is a great example for why grabbing a guy like that is a coin toss at best, not a real floor in terms of being easily replaceable on the market. Those two seasons you mention? 2014-15 and 2016-17. 3 and 5 years ago. Is your position that George Hill is the same player at 33 years old that he was in his prime? And the seasons immediately following them? Those two seasons he posted WS/48 numbers of .203 and .182, crazy numbers. The seasons immediately following those two? .118 and .085. Consistency thy name is not George Hill. And George Hill is probably the absolute best example you could have grabbed for your point, with all the benefit of hindsight. Go look at the list of low salary signings every year and explain to me how you can guarantee yourself a George Hill every offseason, let along a George Hill in a good year.

George Hill is at best an average defender at this point. At best.

Fred has not played in the role best suited for him since his rookie year, and yet here we are and he's going to get paid based on his production outside of that role.

You could also interpret those Hill stats to mean that he actually improves with more usage... which is exactly the opposite of what you're suggesting (i.e. a steep decline, below FVV's efficiency). And Lowry and CP3 seem to have been rejuvenated at ripe old ages.

Surrounding Fred with All-time and All-NBA guys like: Lowry, Kawhi, Danny Green, Gasol & Siakam has been a really tough life for FVV, for sure.

You've stated many times that Fred is not and cannot ever be a point guard, even though Fred and Nurse say he is. So what exactly IS the best role for FVV? Surround him with: Giannis, Kawhi, Embiid, Doncic & Harden. If Masai can pull that off, then Fred is worth every penny.

And what happens when Siakam gets hurt? Fred, for all his elite role player impact goodness, still has a healthy negative on/off rating i.e. your favorite stat to evaluate the effectiveness of role players... hello Patrick Patterson!

[DanH]

You could also interpret those Hill stats to mean that he actually improves with more usage... which is exactly the opposite of what you're suggesting (i.e. a steep decline, below FVV's efficiency). And Lowry and CP3 seem to have been rejuvenated at ripe old ages.

Surrounding Fred with All-time and All-NBA guys like: Lowry, Kawhi, Danny Green, Gasol & Siakam has been a really tough life for FVV, for sure.

You've stated many times that Fred is not and cannot ever be a point guard, even though Fred and Nurse say he is. So what exactly IS the best role for FVV? Surround him with: Giannis, Kawhi, Embiid, Doncic & Harden. If Masai can pull that off, then Fred is worth every penny.

And what happens when Siakam gets hurt? Fred, for all his elite role player impact goodness, still has a healthy negative on/off rating i.e. your favorite stat to evaluate the effectiveness of role players... hello Patrick Patterson!

Yes, again, you haven't addressed that Hill is the outlier, not the norm. Nor that he still grades out as a significantly less impactful player than FVV even in this season where Fred has had poor efficiency and Hill has yet to miss a shot. We could assume a bunch of stuff about how a 33 year old Hill will obviously do well as a high usage player on a team with very little shooting around him because of some half-decade old numbers, but that would be silly, no?

The best role for Fred? I think I've been pretty clear on that. He's a SG, primarily a defensive player (able to defend the best guard on the other team) who can space the floor, but who can create some offence for you when needed without completely falling apart and can be a handful in transition.

Yes, Fred has had a bad on-off because he's been doing too much of the stuff (out of necessity) that you want him to do only in a pinch (such as the pinch they are in now and have been most of the year) and not enough of the stuff he would do in a healthy roster. On-offs are useful if you apply the proper context. For example, which player on the Bucks do you think has the highest off-court net rating? You know, the guy they have the most success without? I'll give you one guess, and it rhymes with Forge Bill. But back to the on-off context - that's why we have impact stats, to filter a lot of that out, especially when comparing players across teams. Fred has added 2.6 wins by PIPM this year, while Hill has added 1.6. Part of that (not all of it) is more minutes, but being able to play more gets you paid (as it should). Meanwhile if you look at Fred's most used lineups for some context, he's only played in three heavy minutes lineups. The starters with Lowry, the starters with Powell in Lowry's spot, and the starters with McCaw in Siakam's spot. Only the McCaw lineup has lost its minutes (shocker, that), while the other two have between +13 and +16 net ratings.

Heck, Fred's on-off is pretty good considering the mess this team has been this year with all the injuries and roles being jerked around as a result. Lowry has an even worse on-off. The PGs have been asked to carry too many lineups by themselves (often tired while doing so) with so many injuries, so both of them have some ugly numbers compared to when they were able to get more significant rest while Pascal (the team's star player, remember) could buoy their rest minutes. Part of Fred's on-off is also Nurse's insistence that Fred try to carry some lineups by himself even when we were healthy, which was obviously a bad idea. That's a job for your max salary guys, which I don't think anyone is suggesting Fred should be.