Starters:
TOR:
Lowry
VanVleet
Anunoby
Siakam
Gasol
HOU:
Westbrook
Harden
McLemore
Tucker
Capela
(Hopefully) Interesting stats:
- Raptors rank 7th in ORTG (110.6), 4th in DRTG (102.7), and 3rd in Net RTG (+7.9). We are 15-5. That's tied for the 4th most wins in the league (and 3rd best win %).
- Rockets rank 3rd in ORTG (113.4), 16th in DRTG (108.5), and 9th in Net RTG (+4.9). They are 13-7.
- This will be a clash of styles. The Rockets rank 29th in how many of their baskets come off assists (53%), the Raptors rank 5th (64%).
- The Rockets are a middling rebounding team. That still gives them an advantage there against the Raptors, who rank 26th in offensive rebounding and 29th in defensive rebounding. Both teams are middling for turnovers, so the Raptors will likely lose the possession battle again and will need superior efficiency to win out. On the year, the two teams have nearly identical eFG% and TS% numbers, so it will come down to how effective the Raptors' defence can be, and how much they can limit the likely rebounding deficit.
It's been 20 games so I've kicked off my annual performance tracker for the Raptors. So far, adjusting for quality of opponent, home-away and back to back effects, the Raptors are projecting as a 61 win team (by pythagorean wins) and a 54 win team using the more conservative performance standard deviation approach (which only projects us at 13-7 right now, so that 54 is effectively 56 looking forward only).
Performance model predicts a Raptors win with a 62% likelihood.
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