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Game #35: Toronto Raptors 76 - Miami Heat 84
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DanH wrote: View Post
I don't think that was a coaching loss, a few concerns aside. The offence generated 36 catch and shoot threes, including 18 wide open looks (and 22 additional "open" looks). On the year the Raps shoot 43% on wide open threes and 32% on open threes. If they hit at those rates, they score an additional 27 points. The entire storyline is we couldn't hit a three. You can't beat a zone if you can't hit a three, unless you have a bunch of dominant rebounders, and we don't even have one.
Is there a way one can search whether the “wide open 3’s†are say good shot corner 3’s, vs say a wide open 3 that is at the top of the key from 5 feet behind the 3 point line. Seems like we took a lot of deep 3’s last night.
I remember last year the bucks strategy was to take away the corner 3 and largely let teams fire away from up top. For awhile they were giving up the most 3’s in the league and had among the best defenses in the nba.
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As for whether Fred's three point improvement versus the Bucks compared to versus the 76ers was because of shooting from a further distance:
Versus Philly: 14 attempts, shortest 24', longest 29', average 26.1 feet.
Versus Milwaukee: 28 attempts, shortest 22', longest 29', average 25.8 feet.
Strange. Almost like that doesn't explain it at all. He just shot more, and hit more of those shots.
If players had complete control over whether they made shots they wouldn't miss any. There is an element of variability, and with distance shooting it is a huge component.
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Rudy Bargnani wrote: View Post
Is there a way one can search whether the “wide open 3’s†are say good shot corner 3’s, vs say a wide open 3 that is at the top of the key from 5 feet behind the 3 point line. Seems like we took a lot of deep 3’s last night.
I remember last year the bucks strategy was to take away the corner 3 and largely let teams fire away from up top. For awhile they were giving up the most 3’s in the league and had among the best defenses in the nba.
Last game, the Raptors took 57% of their threes from inside 24 feet. 43% from outside 25 feet (inside 30 feet). And none from outside 30 feet. They hit 25% of the first group, 0% of the 2nd. The Raptors took 43% of their threes as corner threes, and 57% as above the break threes. They shot 27% on corner threes, and 4% on above the break threes.
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golden wrote: View Post
A lot of that "open look" Synergy data is rubbish, since it's based on 2D data (i.e. foot position on the floor). It doesn't account for 3D data, like a long defender (e.g. Derrick Jones Jr.) with a hand-up, contesting a short shooter (e.g. FVV). To top that off, the Heat play defense with intensity, so it was obvious from the get-go that the Raptors were rushing shots, because everybody knows the Heat are a hard-ass playing team. So that so-called "open look" against the Heat is a hella lot different than vs. the Cavs. What happened to FVV is exactly the same thing that happened vs. the Magic and Sixers, he got exposed by a combination of length and defensive intensity and started to rush shots.
To top things off, adding McCaw to the mix is pretty much tying an anchor to both Lowry and VanVleet, killing the already reduced spacing with Pascal & Gasol out. There's no reason for McCaw to be playing twice the minutes of either Davis or Boucher. Far better to give those guys more minutes consistently to get them into a rhythm.
You can help create outside spacing by frequently flashing bigs in the middle of the zone, or having a tall high post playmaker like Gasol that can see over everthing , but we had neither, so it was tough to break through. There's always gonna be some degree of variance in the 3-ball, but you can't just chalk to that; yesterday to Miami's credit their defence had a big impact, stayed the same throughout the whole game and we had no answer for it. Good practice for the playoffs though, that's the kind of D you're gonna run into and you have to find answers. Will help when we have all our guys back.
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inthepaint wrote: View Post
Yeah I agree here, felt the same watching the game. Heat zone is an aggressive zone that hedges the perimeter really well, so the shots looked tight because even though defenders were sometimes a fair bit away from the shooter, they were long and quick enough in relation to our shooters lenghts and release speed to bother the shot to some degree. High-school ball is of course totally different but I experienced that myself both as a shooter and as a defender. As a shooter I had to release quicker then what I was used to if the defender was both tall & quick (which is rare in high school but there are some), even if they were far away, which bothered my shot.
You can help create outside spacing by frequently flashing bigs in the middle of the zone, or having a tall high post playmaker like Gasol that can see over everthing , but we had neither, so it was tough to break through. There's always gonna be some degree of variance in the 3-ball, but you can't just chalk to that; yesterday to Miami's credit their defence had a big impact, stayed the same throughout the whole game and we had no answer for it. Good practice for the playoffs though, that's the kind of D you're gonna run into and you have to find answers. Will help when we have all our guys back.
But the random variance is there for sure, too. Fans always pile on low volume, role playing shooters because of hot and cold streaks. If a guy takes 3 a game, he goes 3 for 3 some games and 0 for 4 some games and 1 for 2 some games...averages average out over much larger data sets than a handful of games (let alone one game). Fans got on Patrick Patterson and CJ Miles for this all the time, Lowry and Fred seem to catch it a lot, too. All good 3 pt shooters, you just miss some shots in bunches sometimes."We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard
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GOLDBLUM wrote: View Post
I heard NN say it as well. Think it was in a scrum though that I heard it, not an article. No idea how to track down. It was just a couple weeks ago maybe.
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S.R. wrote: View Post
That's an interesting thought. Is there any way to capture rushed shots because of close outs? You might have an "open" shot with all the time in the world because a 7 foot defender has one half-hearted hand out and is actually already turning towards the basket, and you also might have an "open" shot where you had to pull an early trigger because that space is rapidly disappearing due to aggressively closing out defender - though at the moment of release the shot still qualifies as "open."
But the random variance is there for sure, too. Fans always pile on low volume, role playing shooters because of hot and cold streaks. If a guy takes 3 a game, he goes 3 for 3 some games and 0 for 4 some games and 1 for 2 some games...averages average out over much larger data sets than a handful of games (let alone one game). Fans got on Patrick Patterson and CJ Miles for this all the time, Lowry and Fred seem to catch it a lot, too. All good 3 pt shooters, you just miss some shots in bunches sometimes.
I love analytics, but from actually watching a game like yesterday it was obvious from the first minute that the Raptors were rushing shots, already in anticipation of the Heat's well-earned reputation for intense defense. Sometimes a "wide open 3" viewed from the peanut gallery (or even Synergy) is not actually a wide open 3 at floor-level.
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DanH wrote: View Post
Interesting. Care to share a link? I cannot find the article.
Nurse said VanVleet has adjusted his game in a few ways to handle competing against bigger players, such as extending his shooting range by about eight feet so he doesn’t need to get so close to the basket if someone is defending himLast edited by golden; Fri Jan 3, 2020, 04:49 PM.
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slaw wrote: View Post
That can't be true. We all know players have no control over whether their shots go in. It's all just random chance.
Last night our 3 primary shooters were a combined 3 - 28. The other 3 guys were just 3 - 14, better % but not nearly enough to make up for KLOE and FVV going 2 -12 and 1 - 11 respectively. Even Davis who is usually good for 1 or 2 3's a game went 0 - 5. As Fred said after the game "This set basketball back years". It was a historically bad night as it was only the third time in NBA history a team taking 40 or more 3's have made 6 or less buckets.
The good news is that this game is history and we have our play again Sat. night vs the pesky Nets. RHJ makes a homecoming. It's a safe bet that the Raptors will shoot better than 14% from 3.
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golden wrote: View Post
Again, "lack of context" is where the Synergy and most camera data fails. If Giannis is closing out on you at full speed, that's a heck of a lot different than Carmelo Anthony closing out at you at, well, his normal speed. And we're probably never going to be able to capture even more important factors, like effort & intent.
I love analytics, but from actually watching a game like yesterday it was obvious from the first minute that the Raptors were rushing shots, already in anticipation of the Heat's well-earned reputation for intense defense. Sometimes a "wide open 3" viewed from the peanut gallery (or even Synergy) is not actually a wide open 3 at floor-level.
I mean, the Heat have this incredible long armed defence (that actually ranks very middling overall) and there they are with their 32.5% opponent 3 point percentage. And there are the Raptors with their two short PGs starting at the same time and two centers who don't contest at the perimeter and they've got a 33% opponent 3 point percentage. And you know who I think of when I think long, active, pressure defence on the perimeter? The Denver Nuggets. They have the best opponent 3 point percentage.
Milwaukee and all that length that Fred was supposed to step back and shoot longer shots not to be bothered by? 23rd in the league, 37%. The terrifyingly long Philadephia 76ers are down in 12th, at 35%.
It's noise. We like to pretend that it's not, it's easier to tell ourselves narratives that way. But some of these things are really just noise. Even over large samples, let alone single game samples.
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golden wrote: View Post
This article doesn't have the Bucks quote, but I think this was around the same time that Nurse talked about Fred extending his range...
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...rs-new-leader/
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DanH wrote: View Post
Yeah, that's from this season, I remember him talking about that this season. Extending range, always a good thing. It was the "this is the difference in his shooting partway through the playoffs" bit that was brand new to me.
And Synergy data captures everything.
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This convo belongs in the X's and O's nerd thread
In other news:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/...adline-buyers/
I've said all along that Masai will make a deadline deal; minor but for optics. Watch for the Bucks, Philly or Celtics to make a more impactful move....just a hunch from the pessimistic sideLast edited by G__Deane; Fri Jan 3, 2020, 07:43 PM.
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