Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[Heatdreamer]

This is known as negotiations, Silver is prepared to continue conversations with the union, life is shades of gray, where Stern would have brought out the big stick . Silver will offer solutions and will continue to do so, until when he says No, than everyone will understand his sincerity.

Silver has an enthusiasm about basketball that is infectious. His vision of basketball is not only about profitability for ownership and therefore what is left for players. This vision includes creating a foundation of what NBA basketball means from the grassroots and global evolution.

The players of the future will enjoy the fruits of this labour. NFL may disappear if the issues of concussions and personality flaws continue to be a challenge. John Woodens philosophy of basketball may become the tenets that the NBA embodies going forward

IMO the three year smoothing , including an adjustment driving the salary cap by $10 million dollar increases for those 3 years . Instead of $67 million in 2015- a new cap of $76 million ( less borrowing costs) , $90 million in 2016 /17 and $103 million in 2017/18 . These figures include a 4-5% annual growth increase .

This could be a possible solution.

[DanH]

It could be a possible solution, I guess. Except that that solution has aspects that both sides are fundamentally against. Owners have zero interest in raising the cap early, as it would mean borrowing hundreds of millions without the revenue to offset it. And players have zero interest in scaling down any one year of cap.

Also, your numbers seem way off. Once they hit 90M, they won't have to go much higher. It will be a long time before they hit 100M. If they end up frontloading cap as you suggest here, it might be even longer.

[Heatdreamer]

Tv Contract paid out in three years as suggested below:

2.66 -.930= 1.73 x . 5= .865/30 (teams) this allows for an increase of 28.25 x .9 ( monies attributed for benefits) leaving $25.4 million for the players.

Adding $ 67 ( 2015/16) + 25.4( divide by 3 ) = $ 75.5 salary Cap in year 1
Adding a 5% project growth in other rev. In year 2 & 3.
Year 2 $ 75.5 + $ 4 + $ 8.5 = $ 88 million for salary cap for 2016/17
Year 3 $ 88 + $ 4.4 + $ 8.5 = $ 100.9 million for salary cap for 2017/18

With the addition of 2 or 3 new stadiums will provide the projected increase of revenue growth.

[DanH]

But that brings the cap in 2017 above what it would otherwise be. You are way off on those numbers. Plus that's beside the point - the owners will never agree to front load cap space.

[Mapko]

There would be no negotiation of max contract removal with the union.

The reasons is simple: numbers.
The union is not there to protect the max guys, it is there to protect the average which is overwhelming majority of NBA. No way does the union go along with removing guaranteed money so the top 15-30 players in the league can get unlimited dollars.

I think it would be interesting to see a scenario play out like this - a sort of franchise tag.

Teams can negotiate an unlimited contract with 1 player that does not count against the cap or counts as a minimum contract/roster spot BUT BUT BUT they must have Bird Rights to do so (i.e. 3 years service - can also be obtained via trade).

Why?
Guys like Kobe/LeBron/etc. get paid what they are truly worth - which seems fair - while teams like OKC who built a tremendous core don't have to make non-basketball decisions (luxury tax, revenue sharing) in building their team.

Not sure how the BRI would factor in to this or anything else. Haven't really given it much more thought than you are seeing right here. I'm sure there are flaws that I'm not seeing. Anyways....

Very interesting concept that makes a lot of sense.
Hypothetical problem (see bold part): If I'm say A Davis (or J Parker or Wiggins or even Lebron) I'd go to my GM & insist I want to be in LA after 2015-16 season. Kobe is retired (I assume) & LA can pay a lot more than Bucks or Minnesota or ...whereby NY or LA would gladly pay 50-100 mil for Lebron or Davis.
Maybe if Birds rights are limited to players drafted (or at least with same team for say 3 yrs -ie NO TRADE).
Thoughts?

[Heatdreamer]

How do you know what the owners and the commissioner will do in the process of negotiatiom

[DanH]

How do you know what the owners and the commissioner will do in the process of negotiatiom

Because it was reported that the owners had no interest in fronting cap. And also because I am able to think critically about money, and look at the decisions made by owners in the past. And draw reasonable conclusions from that.

And again, your proposal makes no sense - the idea of frontloading cap is to reduce the rate at which it jumps, yet in your scenario, it hits 100M far faster than it would if just left alone.

[Heatdreamer]

Presuming the owners don't take the Tv contract for the full amount of 2.66 billion a year, instead commencing the contract at 2.1 billion and increasing it annually through the duration of the contract .

If 2015/16 the salary cap is $67 million, the flat value fee is $ 24-25 million increase due to the media deal in 2016/17 plus a 5% projected increase due to other ancillary revenues, so the one time increase would bring the salary cap for 2016/17 commences at $95/6 milllion.

[DanH]

Yeah, 24B over 9 years is what is being reported. Cap would jump to 95M or so. We'll see if they managed to frontload some of that into 2015-16, or backload the deal over the 9 years to give some cushion. Hopefully more details when they announce at 10.

Presuming the owners don't take the Tv contract for the full amount of 2.66 billion a year, instead commencing the contract at 2.1 billion and increasing it annually through the duration of the contract .

If 2015/16 the salary cap is $67 million, the flat value fee is $ 24-25 million increase due to the media deal in 2016/17 plus a 5% projected increase due to other ancillary revenues, so the one time increase would bring the salary cap for 2016/17 commences at $95/6 milllion.

Dude, we did the math back in the fall. Nothing has changed, except the union rejecting the idea of smoothing.

[Heatdreamer]

Dude ? Wow , yes we did, and than you stated that my numbers are wrong . Yet the two quotes above the numbers seem very similar.

Smoothing was initially rejected by the union and yet the union made a reply . Than Silver states he expects the union and he to talk even though the union proposal of moving monies from the Tv contract one year prior to the actual contract.

The old adage , it is not over to the fat lady sings is apropos.

[Superjudge]

another lock on the way... longer this time.

[DanH]

another lock on the way... longer this time.

I agree there is a lockout coming. Doubt it lasts as long as the last one, though. Just way too much money for both sides to miss games.

[DanH]

Dude ? Wow , yes we did, and than you stated that my numbers are wrong . Yet the two quotes above the numbers seem very similar.

Smoothing was initially rejected by the union and yet the union made a reply . Than Silver states he expects the union and he to talk even though the union proposal of moving monies from the Tv contract one year prior to the actual contract.

The old adage , it is not over to the fat lady sings is apropos.

Yes, the last post you got to (after several) made sense, because it was the exact same math we covered months ago. The earlier posts made zero sense as they somehow managed to accelerate the cap rising, when I assumed your intent was to slow it (smoothing).

The union is open to earlier smoothing because it would make them hundreds of millions. The owners will only go for it with an increased escrow to pull that back, which will be a non-starter for the union. Anyone who paid attention to the last CBA negotiations can see there will likely be no significant smoothing. The full extent of what the league can do now is structure their TV contract with an increasing revenue (which was already the plan). There's even some question of whether they can do that (depends on the wording of the TV contract).

Sure, it's not over 'till the fat lady sings. But she's good and warmed up, if you peek behind the curtain.

[Heatdreamer]

We agree on the lockout, the negotiation will be about share split, most other issues will be addressed by Silver to Roberts and the gaps will be narrowed by th union.

[Heatdreamer]

Larry Coons estimates salary cap as of Feb 21,2015 at 67.3 million, now that we have seen how the Raptors are playing. How would you adjust your initial commitments.

Additionally , at least we know that the TV Deal is going to increase the BRI by at least 1.2 Billion ( rounded figure)- based on 51% sharing of 20.2 million dollars per team or possibly higher .

Would you re-sign Lou as your 6 th man?-2/13 plus an option. With Atlanta playing well with Milsap and having traded Payne, this PF will probably unavailable. interested in your new perspective . Now that Reggie Jackson is no longer in OKC and they have shown their willing to exceed the luxury tax KD is seemingly aspirational.

JJ is a revelation and is at worst your backup defensive stopper SF . Amir goes? Hansbourough , Hayes, Fields , Camby cap space, and Steemer for a savings of 24 million! If including a signing of LW the 53.5 plus cap holds and 2015 first round pick or $56.5 million leaving $11 million for a free agent before hitting salary cap.

The 2016-17 year without GV would have a new look as well. Do you trade him for a faster PG, such as Trey Burke next year or a Patrick Beverly?