Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[DanH]

Mid max, anyway.

[DanH]

30.5 million.

[mcHAPPY]

Yeah, 2017 we can have the max if we trade our picks (both 2017's) for futures.

And if Lowry opts out.

Dan, what would be max based on $108m rumoured/projected cap?

[DanH]

Yeah, 2017 we can have the max if we trade our picks (both 2017's) for futures.

[mcHAPPY]

How 2017 convinces KD to sign in 2016......

planetmars and Axel did great job breaking down the whole "how to sign KD/max free agent". I think based on posts below, if given choice to gut team to keep DeMar or just renounce him and sign KD in cap space, parting ways with DD is the best option.

Anything is possible.. but DD's cap hold is $15,075,000. To have enough to sign KD and keep DD, the Raptors would have to let go of 2Pat, CoJo, Wright or Bebe (without getting any salary back) and another asset (say Toronto's 2016 first) with JJ, Scola and TR renounced/moved and hoping Biyombo drops his player option

OR

Trade Carroll (without getting any salary back) and another asset (like Bebe or Wright - Toronto's draft pick would not be enough) with JJ, Scola and TR renounced/moved and also hoping Biyombo drops his player option.

OR

Trade Lowry (without getting any salary back) and two assets (like Bebe and Wright) with JJ, Scola and TR renounced/moved and also hoping Biyombo drops his player option.


The first package would make a team dealing a superstar blush. The second would mean Masai believes that DD is more valuable than Carroll/Bebe or Carroll/Wright. I don't believe the third option would exist.. Lowry is more valuable than DD.

Will be interesting to see what Masai does in the 2016 draft.. that's when we'll probably get an idea as to what direction he's heading.

Well considering that this is a thread about Masai and his strategy (and not just another DD debate), I thought it was appropriate to ask the question, so I'll ask it again.

If you are Masai, do you:

Option 1 - keep the rest of the team intact and sacrifice DD (the risk would be he walks while we chase KD) to be able to show up to your sit down with KD with cap space in hand?

Option 2 - keep DD and go to the sit down with KD with a long list of trade ideas to moves players X, Y, Z to clear cap space (at the risk of gutting the team since return in those deals would be less than typical market value)?

For me, Option 1 is light years better than Option 2.

Option 1 makes more sense for your lineup (KD replaces DD's scoring vs a bunch of players/positions/skills).

Option 1 makes more sense from a sales point - "we insert you here with these players and this system" is more sound than "we put you here after trading these guys and hope to get player X & Y in return with player Z as a fall back".

If Option 1 utterly fails, then we sign a Batum/Henderson type and still have a full roster ready for next cap season target (Ibaka).

I did the cap math.. Ross would be gone with or without DD. But from a monetary point of view the Raptors would need to renounce DD and also renounce Scola, JJ, Ross and trade Biyombo (if he picks up his option).

If you prefer to keep DD's cap hold and move the bench then that's CoJo, 2Pat, Bebe with Scola, JJ, Ross and Biyombo.

Or if you prefer to move Lowry then that's Lowry, Bebe with Scola, JJ, Ross and Biyombo.

The last option would be Carroll with Wright (or Bebe or any of our picks) with Scola, JJ, Ross and Biyombo.

And if you trade Carroll/Bebe or Lowry/Bebe or CoJo/2Pat/Bebe then they can't bring back any salary (Raptor's have Bebe's team option so doesn't need to be traded).


In the CoJo/2Pat case you lose a starting PF and since Scola and Biyombo are gone backup PF's as well. That's a tough thing to replace if you were a GM.

You can in theory replace Lowry with CoJo if Lowry is moved but CoJo has to come out guns a blazing.

And Carroll is probably a better fit next to KD than DD would be.

So with that out of the way, lets make the assumption KD signs in 2016 with a big selling point being max room again in 2017. How can that happen? Who, from current core, would need to go? Lowry? Patterson? BRUNO!?!??! NO! Not BRUNO!


Players salary for 2017-2018:

KD - $26.3M
Carroll - $14.8M
JV - $15.5M
Joseph - $7.6M
Bebe - $2.9M
Bruno - $2.5M
Wright - $1.6M
2016 NY/DEN - $2.9M (7th)
2016 Raps - $1.3M (20th)

Total guaranteed - $75.4

Players with options or expiring:

Lowry - $12M player option or $18M cap hold
PP - $9.1M cap hold
Powell - $1M non-guaranteed


With the salary cap around $108M, a max contract is going to about $30M.

Add a max contract on to $75.4M and we are looking at $105M with about $3M left in cap space which would account for cap holds and could pick up Powell.

So you could sign a max contract but lose Lowry and PP. It will be interesting to see what happens with that Knicks/Nuggets pick. If they draft, say, Jamal Murray, is losing Lowry a big deal? What if they draft a dominant PF?


However, IF, and it is a big IF, Lowry opted in to his contract, that would put Raptors at $87.4M. Hypothetically if the Raptors had traded their OWN 2016 pick, that takes down to $86.1M leaving Raptors $21.9M to offer. If the free agent signed a 2 year deal with player option for 3rd, they would be able to sign for 130%, which would take up to just shy of max at $28.5M.


But that is too much risk and faith for most of the players involved. Odds are very unlikely any of that transpires... and very unlikely means non-existent. But with Masai and KD's connections to Ibaka, maybe, just maybe..... nah.

I guess most likely outcome if looking to sign a max contract again in 2017 is Lowry and Patterson will be gone which explains current depth with Joseph and Wright.


Interesting times.

This was likely a gigantic waste of my time but always better to waste time on RR than elsewhere.

[JWash]

Now that I think about it, I think we have a much better shot at Horford than KD. We're one of the few teams that will have space for him, already be a playoff team, have a legitimate need at starting 4, and have a legitimate center to play him with so he can move to the 4 spot like he's always wanted to.

Also I'm sure he has a pretty good relationship with Carroll, so that definitely doesn't hurt either. If you're getting Horford trading away 2Pat is not a big deal at all. Horford is gonna eat up 30+ minutes per game at the 4 spot and that's the only position 2Pat can even play. Makes a lot more sense to move him along with some prospects/bench players (hell Atlanta might even be down to sign and trade so it could be cake) than to create a vacancy in the starting 5.

Going into 2016-17 with a Lowry/DeRozan/Carroll/Horford/Valanciunas lineup would be excellent. Obviously KD is target #1, but I don't see how anyone could complain about rolling into the 16/17 season with that lineup.

[raptors999]

In the case where we're getting Horford though, wouldn't it make sense to move bench players to free up the room for him? If you give up the bench you have a weaker bench, but if you give up DD you'd have a huge hole at the SG position (because Ross would've been let go as well). It would definitely make more sense to trade away some bench players and sign DD in that case. It's not like the Durant situation where you can at least make the argument that KD/DC would cover the wing spots.

Sign him first, but if Raptors do sign Horford it means an offense that is going inside to JV and Al rather than guard dominant. DC also would play a bigger role. The guards would need to defend and knock down shots

[JWash]

Horford is going to command max or near max money.

There is no big name, legit max free agent next year without all the issues about filling out the roster with KD applying to another FA as well.

Can't get that and keep DD. Something has to give somewhere whether it is DD, another starter, or the bench.

In the case where we're getting Horford though, wouldn't it make sense to move bench players to free up the room for him? If you give up the bench you have a weaker bench, but if you give up DD you'd have a huge hole at the SG position (because Ross would've been let go as well). It would definitely make more sense to trade away some bench players and sign DD in that case. It's not like the Durant situation where you can at least make the argument that KD/DC would cover the wing spots.

[mcHAPPY]

How would you feel about Batum as DD replacement? Espetially, considering his "innuendos" about liking to play in To (this appears to follow that "invisible" pattern much better).

I'd be happy with Batum if KD and Horford fell through. Would have to be considerably less than max though. Luckily everyone will get to see Batum next season as a SG with larger role in offense.

I think it would mean you're significantly upping usage on JV.

[mcHAPPY]

Precisely.
I think it's safe to assume (and we've beaten this to death) NEITHER Demare nor KD are playing 4.
So, what options are left for SG, SF, PF?
-Forget about KD;
-Resign Demar & forget about KD;
-Let Demar go & sign KD (if interested of course. Now, i would be cautions about approaching KD, because if I am Demar I'd vvew it as DD being 2nd option)
-Resign Demar & go after Horford (personally, I think this is the best fit NEXT year (I'd be intrigued by Morris at 4 in interim to see if it works);
I suppose there are other possibilities (trade Carrolle...)

Horford is going to command max or near max money.

There is no big name, legit max free agent next year without all the issues about filling out the roster with KD applying to another FA as well.

Can't get that and keep DD. Something has to give somewhere whether it is DD, another starter, or the bench.

[raptors999]

It's so risky though, can't see him doing it unless the Raps have some legit under the table shit lined up for KD.

Even if he was due to get the max in 2016 and 2017, he'd only make ~20M more over the life of the four year deal, while missing out on ~14M in 2016-17. Too much risk for 6M extra.

Thinks its more than 6M 9.5 + 4-5 year @ 108M cap vs 4-5 years @ 89M cap. The least is one extra year at the higher cap

[JWash]

Delay a deal until the next cap jump. More money in total + longer contract.

It's so risky though, can't see him doing it unless the Raps have some legit under the table shit lined up for KD.

Even if he was due to get the max in 2016 and 2017, he'd only make ~20M more over the life of the four year deal, while missing out on ~14M in 2016-17. Too much risk for 6M extra.

[raptors999]

Why in the world would he do that (unless he suffers a devastating injury which would necessitate missing most of following season)?

Delay a deal until the next cap jump. More money in total + longer contract.

[JWash]

How would you feel about Batum as DD replacement? Espetially, considering his "innuendos" about liking to play in To (this appears to follow that "invisible" pattern much better).

I really want to see how Batum plays this year.

I like Batum a lot but the reality is that he was basically the 4th option in Portland, playing with 2 all-star caliber players and one of the best 2-guards in the league in Wes Matthews. I'm curious to see how he performs in Charlotte this year. Also he hasn't exactly played shooting guard before (he's primarily defended and played the small forward position). Not saying he can't, just that it'd be a change from what he's been doing his whole career.

Also have to consider that Batum will likely cost just as much to sign as DeRozan will. Hell maybe more, as we saw this year the 3+D guys were getting premiums (Carroll and Wes) while more of the high usage scorers like Ellis got less money.

[JWash]

Hmm that idea of re-signing DeMar and signing Horford is intriguing.

How do people feel about this. Would you be willing to move bench players instead to bring in Horford or would you rather move DD and create a hole at the 2?