Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[mcHAPPY]

The 4.5% increases assumed by the NBA are increases in non-TV deal income. So not an expected 4.5% increase overall. It may well increase by that much, but a) they are not "on a roll" as this year they exceeded the projection but the prior year they didn't and b) that is not what they are predicting, and they know their revenue streams better than anyone.

Soooooo....

What you're saying here....

If I assume correctly....

Is that the Raptors will indeed sign KD?

[DanH]

The 4.5% increases assumed by the NBA are increases in non-TV deal income. So not an expected 4.5% increase overall. It may well increase by that much, but a) they are not "on a roll" as this year they exceeded the projection but the prior year they didn't and b) that is not what they are predicting, and they know their revenue streams better than anyone.

[SkywalkerAC]

If we did land Durant I'd think it would be through sign and trade.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

This is highly debatable. Not going to turn this into a DeRozan thread, but the fact is there is nothing concrete about that statement. And the fact that this is the primary premise for the argument against trading the bench guys vs. letting DD walk, is why I do not agree with that argument at all.

Fair enough. I meant from a financial standpoint, given how many assets would need to be given up and how many trades would need to be made, all without taking any guaranteed salary back. I wasn't trying to start a player/value debate. I did make it clear that the decision would very likely wind up being DeRozan VS a lot more than just backups and bench fodder, purely from a numbers perspective.

Everybody is free to weigh the pros & cons of all the various alternatives I laid out, coming to their own decision about preference and judgment.

[JWash]

Patterson & Joseph ($13.38M) combine to be less than DeRozan's cap hold ($15.075M), so some of those players you mentioned would likely have to be traded away (with no salary coming back) as well - and that was using the $93M cap projection from planetmars' scenario. Don't forget, trading away players for nothing means that you'd then have to factor in the cap holds for the empty slots (up to 12 roster slots), meaning that your idea really isn't feasible, especially if the cap is closer to $89M.

Even trading Lowry isn't enough, as more than $3M additional salary would need to be dumped, along with enough beyond that to then cover the cap holds for the empty roster slots that the trade(s) creates. Likely one of Patterson or Joseph would need to be traded away with Lowry.

Valanciunas and Carroll are the only players you could likely trade instead of letting DeRozan go, and even then you'd probably have to drop another cheap player (with Carroll at least).

If MU is serious about going after a max free agent, it really makes no sense to try and keep DeRozan, especially if the max player is a wing (ie: Durant). It's not just a matter of completely gutting the bench, but likely gutting the bench and losing a starter (the Raps are already missing a legit starting PF). That's in addition to maxing out the cap, while having many holes to fill, just to keep a player whose greatest strengths are replicated (more efficiently) by the max free agent you're acquiring.

This is highly debatable. Not going to turn this into a DeRozan thread, but the fact is there is nothing concrete about that statement. And the fact that this is the primary premise for the argument against trading the bench guys vs. letting DD walk, is why I do not agree with that argument at all.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Or could we keep Joseph and trade 2Pat, Wright, Biyombo, Bebe (or just not pick up his TO) and get pretty close? The latter 3 add up to about 6.3M which is 1M short of Joseph's deal.

Leaves you with

PG: Lowry/CoJo
SG: DeRozan/Powell
F: Durant/Bruno
F: Carroll
C: Jonas

2016 DEN/NYK pick slotted in somewhere.

Could use the room exception to pick up a backup center then go bargain bin hunting or ring-chaser hunting for a backup 4.

Patterson & Joseph ($13.38M) combine to be less than DeRozan's cap hold ($15.075M), so some of those players you mentioned would likely have to be traded away (with no salary coming back) as well - and that was using the $93M cap projection from planetmars' scenario. Don't forget, trading away players for nothing means that you'd then have to factor in the cap holds for the empty slots (up to 12 roster slots), meaning that your idea really isn't feasible, especially if the cap is closer to $89M.

Even trading Lowry isn't enough, as more than $3M additional salary would need to be dumped, along with enough beyond that to then cover the cap holds for the empty roster slots that the trade(s) creates. Likely one of Patterson or Joseph would need to be traded away with Lowry.

Valanciunas and Carroll are the only players you could likely trade instead of letting DeRozan go, and even then you'd probably have to drop another cheap player (with Carroll at least).

If MU is serious about going after a max free agent, it really makes no sense to try and keep DeRozan, especially if the max player is a wing (ie: Durant). It's not just a matter of completely gutting the bench, but likely gutting the bench and losing a starter (the Raps are already missing a legit starting PF). That's in addition to maxing out the cap, while having many holes to fill, just to keep a player whose greatest strengths are replicated (more efficiently) by the max free agent you're acquiring.

[JWash]

- Carroll
- Lowry
- Valanciunas
- Patterson & Joseph

Or could we keep Joseph and trade 2Pat, Wright, Biyombo, Bebe (or just not pick up his TO) and get pretty close? The latter 3 add up to about 6.3M which is 1M short of Joseph's deal.

Leaves you with

PG: Lowry/CoJo
SG: DeRozan/Powell
F: Durant/Bruno
F: Carroll
C: Jonas

2016 DEN/NYK pick slotted in somewhere.

Could use the room exception to pick up a backup center then go bargain bin hunting or ring-chaser hunting for a backup 4.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Assuming cap is at $93M and KD's starting salary is at $26M then the numbers look like this:

$64,982,370 - assuming DD, TR, JJ, Scola, De Colo are renounced and Biyombo has yet to pick up his option (also assuming 5th/20th picks in draft are selected).

$28,017,630 - cap left from the $93M assumed cap

$2,017,630 - left after signing KD (with a $26M starting salary - this is estimated)

Biyombo's option is $2,940,630, which is $923,000 over the cap.. so the Raps would have to clear up about $1M if the cap was adjusted like that.

Raptors will have their room mid-level which is about $2.9M. Since they're going to have to use cap space to get KD they won't have the non-tax payer mid-level.

Another way that the salaries could just about work, depending on where the cap comes in, is if Biyombo picks up his option (I assume he will unless he has an absolute break-out season) and the Raps trade their own pick (ie #20 in your scenario - MU has stated that it's unlikely they use all 4 1st round picks they have over the next two drafts).

That would leave the roster looking like this, ahead of free agency, with right around enough space for a max offer:

C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Bebe
PF: Patterson
SF: Carroll, Powell, Bruno
SG:
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright
+ #2-10 draft pick from DEN/NYK
+ cap hold for 12th roster spot

Gone: DeRozan, Ross, Scola, JJ, 15th man, De Colo's rights


In order to sign a max free agent and be able to keep DeRozan, the Raptors would need to trade at least one of the following:
- Carroll
- Lowry
- Valanciunas
- Patterson & Joseph

[planetmars]

The cap space is predicated by BRI increases which Silver and crew have been on a roll increasing with a number of new sponsors and for new classifications. Increasing the projected BRI Which was 89 million per team based on a salary cap in 2015 at $66.3 million when the new TV deal was announced in 2014.
As stated earlier NBA philosophy is to increase revenues from sponsors and it is my belief , a more aggressive figure for salary cap may push the figure between $94-95 million dollars, since average increases of BRI are 4.5% per annum.
That is where the $89 x 1.045= $93 million salary cap is being mentioned.
Dan, based on a more aggressive salary cap scenario, how does this affect the aspirational KD format, and does this allow BB to return to the fold.
Could KD be signed and the Raptors have a MLE?

Assuming cap is at $93M and KD's starting salary is at $26M then the numbers look like this:

$64,982,370 - assuming DD, TR, JJ, Scola, De Colo are renounced and Biyombo has yet to pick up his option (also assuming 5th/20th picks in draft are selected).

$28,017,630 - cap left from the $93M assumed cap

$2,017,630 - left after signing KD (with a $26M starting salary - this is estimated)

Biyombo's option is $2,940,630, which is $923,000 over the cap.. so the Raps would have to clear up about $1M if the cap was adjusted like that.

Raptors will have their room mid-level which is about $2.9M. Since they're going to have to use cap space to get KD they won't have the non-tax payer mid-level.

[Heatdreamer]

The cap space is predicated by BRI increases which Silver and crew have been on a roll increasing with a number of new sponsors and for new classifications. Increasing the projected BRI Which was 89 million per team based on a salary cap in 2015 at $66.3 million when the new TV deal was announced in 2014.
As stated earlier NBA philosophy is to increase revenues from sponsors and it is my belief , a more aggressive figure for salary cap may push the figure between $94-95 million dollars, since average increases of BRI are 4.5% per annum.
That is where the $89 x 1.045= $93 million salary cap is being mentioned.
Dan, based on a more aggressive salary cap scenario, how does this affect the aspirational KD format, and does this allow BB to return to the fold.
Could KD be signed and the Raptors have a MLE?

[DanH]

Math is fine, a lot of it comes down to assumptions. One correction is that Ross is not in a team option, that's his qualifying offer you have listed, cap hold is much higher (closer to 9M).

My numbers have been assuming 10th and 20th picks, hence me ending up with 25M instead of 24M in cap space. Max should start at 25.1M based on an 89M cap. Closer to 26M if the cap stretches up to 93M. That said, be cautious with the optimistic cap projections - every year people assume the cap will come in above the projection, and it only happens about half the time - this year's was 3M above (an outlier), but the year prior's was a few hundred thousand below the projection. And the cap may indeed end up at 93M - just be aware that it's hard to say what is likely this far out - last summer the cap projection was adjusted from 66.5M to 67.1M - ended up at 70M with no warning until midway through the moratorium.

[planetmars]

Felt like doing some math tonight.. this is the outlook for 2016 (using bball insiders for help):

Carroll, Lowry, CoJo, 2Pat, JV, Wright, Powell:
$56,398,939

Bruno:
$57,988,579

Bebe
$59,908,899

2016 first (assume #5) - $3,227,100 - cap hold (should be signed @ 120% of that)
2016 first (assume #20) - $1,301,900 - cap hold (should be signed @ 120% of that)
$64,438,899

12th spot cap hold - $543,471 (minimum salary)
$64,982,370

DeMar's cap hold - $15,075,000
Biyombo's player option - $2,940,630
Ross (team option) - $4.790,680

JJ, Scola and De Colo will have cap holds but will probably be renounced.

Assuming cap is at $89M.

Without DD's cap hold, Ross and Bioymbo - they have $24,017,630 cap space left. I believe the starting salary for Durant in 2016 given the max would be $24.9 (according to Bobby Marks).

If BB does not pick up his option, Raptors would have to shed some salary still (possibly Bebe) to get under the cap to go after KD. If BB picks up his option then someone like 2Pat will have to be traded for cap relief.


Notes:
- This is not news for a lot of folks, but I was interested in the fine details, and had some time to spare.
- The cap could go up above $89M.. I heard as high as $93M.
- BB will have a lot of power in the summer as he'll probably end up determining 2Pat's fate (unless the cap goes up), assuming Masai wants max money to work with (for 7-9 year free agents like KD).
- I really doubt TR or DD will be Raptors next year unless Masai strikes out on a max free agent (but I do suspect Batum will be his plan C).

Dan (or anyone) please correct my math if I'm wrong.

[JWash]

I think in terms of guaranteed contracts for 2016-17 we have ~60M on the books not including POs, TOs or the 2016 draft picks.

[mcHAPPY]

Agreed, that's my expectation as well.

Though it should be noted they would have room for 7-9 year vet max, not the true max.

Right you are.

The only true max free agents in my mind for next season both happen to be 7-9 year vets (not getting lebron, folks!)

[DanH]

Then my money is on JV backloaded.

Raps might not have much hope to sign KD but you have to believe they are going to have the ability to do it if the opportunity arose. Or any true max free agent for that matter.

Agreed, that's my expectation as well.

Though it should be noted they would have room for 7-9 year vet max, not the true max.