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Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

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  • DanH
    replied
    Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
    Does anything change if Pascal becomes eligible for the next level of super max? He needs one more all nba selection right?
    Well, if Pascal gets the early eligibility, we can technically offer him 5% more. Yes, making all-NBA this year or next would do it (depending on if we are talking an extension this summer or re-signing the following summer). But only we can offer that 5% more, so it would only impact internal negotiations, not market value.

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  • Bonus Jonas
    replied
    Does anything change if Pascal becomes eligible for the next level of super max? He needs one more all nba selection right?

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  • DanH
    replied
    Next season's (2023-24) salary cap seems to be going up by an extra 1M compared to expected. Every little bit helps, but nothing game changing there.

    That said, as I've noted before, we can likely re-sign our key guys without going into the tax, so long as they aren't too ridiculous in price.

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  • GOLDBLUM
    replied
    Any new thoughts based on the salary cap increase?

    Is there a salary crunch crisis on the horizon?

    Or could this allow us to work towards keeping everybody in the coming years?

    What. Is. The Endgame?



    (Do give me hope.)

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    I've got the Raps with, assuming Koloko signs for the minimum and the worst case cuts re: guarantee and salary (Banton and Champagnie cut, which seems exceedingly unlikely), a total of 145.4M, with a tax line of 150.3M. So plenty of room to drop Svi (1.9M) and keep an extra cut.

    More likely Wilson (who is a more expensive contract) is the cut and Brooks takes Svi's spot. If that more likely scenario takes place, the total is 146.1M. Way more wiggle room than last season.

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  • DanH
    replied
    Wrote a thing on future considerations when thinking about signings this offseason:

    https://www.raptorshq.com/2022/6/28/...in-free-agency

    And even got invited on a podcast, so listen in before the podcast goes under, I'm sure to have sunk them.

    https://pod.link/1456611362

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  • DanH
    replied
    Notes on MLE and current status after draft:

    What I will be fascinated by is whether the Raptors make offers with term. They have Boucher and Thad to re-sign, and the MLE to use. They'll probably try to use a slice of the MLE to give Koloko three years. But with salaries crunching over the next few years, maybe they prioritize keeping flexibility in future years and try for one year deals.

    Now, a one year deal for a guy like Boucher or Thad would mean they get a no trade clause, which is not great for trade flexibility at the deadline, so they'd want to be able to buy a 2nd unguaranteed season. They'd need to pay more to get them without term, let alone with that second year unguaranteed. Similarly, if they want a one year deal for their MLE signing, you aren't getting a 9M player if you won't give term on the deal. Maybe that deal is small enough that you can fit it into the longer term salary structure, but even then if you are offering slightly sub-MLE you might get outbid.

    Lots to consider.

    But, assuming they offer term at the MLE or near to it, some interesting names (looking for shooting and defence and a little playmaking if possible at the wing or guard spot):

    Gary Harris
    Delon Wright
    Kyle Anderson
    Tyus Jones
    Bruce Brown Jr
    Ricky Rubio (no idea what his market will be like after that injury, a guy who might be open to a 1 year MLE)
    Nic Batum
    Malik Monk would be OK but not sure he fits the defensive ethos

    A lot of those guys will end up priced out of our range regardless of term but that's why it's not a list of one.

    The other thing is roster spots.

    Raps have 13 guys on the roster assuming Boucher and Thad are back (and they don't waive Brooks or Banton). They also have Champagnie, who I suspect is beyond a two-way now, so will need a spot, and Koloko of course, so that's 15. Someone needs to not be there if they are spending the MLE. Cutting Svi would do it.

    Final consideration, pretty sure they won't be entering the tax this year, and right now (with just Koloko assumed at the minimum) they have 12 guys taking them to a tax total of 117.3M. Tax line is at 148.3M, leaving them almost exactly 31M for the final three spots. Four spots if they cut Svi.

    If they cut Svi and give Champagnie a minimum deal, that's 29M left for Boucher, Thad and MLE guy. If you give all three term that is probably enough. If you try to stick to one year deals, you probably lose one of Boucher or Thad. But we'll see.

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  • DanH
    replied
    Just caught an error in the max extension I had listed for Pascal. Way too high, think I grabbed the 10 year vet extension instead of the 7-9 year vet. If he waits a year he can get something like the above if he qualifies for the early supermax, but this summer he can do the following:

    His current deal:

    2022-23: $35.4M
    2023-24: $37.9M

    And the max extension they can offer:

    2022-23: $35.4M
    2023-24: $37.9M
    2024-25: $39.8M
    2025-26: $43.0M
    2026-27: $46.2M

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  • earthmaster
    replied
    If we want to win a championship in the next 3 years, we need a bonafied star, not a bunch of plus player/borderline all stars unfortunately. I would keep scottie/precious and pascal for that run. I think fred/Trent/OG expendable on a trade for a true star. Because you really need to convert Fred/trent/OG salary into 1 superstar and a few role players making 10-15 mill. Assuming Pascal is still a borderline allstar, Scottie a true all star and Precious at least a plus starter. That bonafied superstar with role players would put us over the top. I think in the next year will be a deciding one as Masai will need to make a decision who to offload to get our superstar. I feel like his plan to develop this core to see which ones fit best for his next move. I feel like if we see growth from precious and scottie, our full roster will fight for a top 4 seed. Chicago is just not a contender and brooklyn who knows. Boston, Miami, bucks and phil are clear cream of the crop next season.

    Will be interesting who they sign with their cap space. I don't think masai trades for gobert. He just doesn't move the needle enough. You really only do that for a superstar. Gobert really is just too one sided for the money you're gonna pay him.

    Love Pascal but gonna need to see him put up closer to 25/9/7 shooting 50/36/80 before I'm comfortable giving him another Max extension. Even then I think hes a 1B on a championship team. But that would bring us closer. For Raps to get out of 1st round he really needs to make that push. My estimates for next season are:

    Pascal : 24/8/6
    Fred: 20/4/7
    Trent: 16/2/3
    OG: 19/5/3
    Scottie: 18/9/4
    Precious: 12/8/1

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  • DanH
    replied
    Just putting this here so I can find it easier later:

    Precious is one year ahead of Barnes. OG decision is at the same time as Pascal. Trent at the same time as Fred.

    Agree they either need to let someone walk, get budget deals on everybody (unlikely with the way the Raps like to operate), trade someone ahead of time, or trade them after the fact once Scottie's raise kicks in.

    Lots of planning involved.

    Cap is hard to project at this point, but let's be pessimistic and assume only 3% growth from now to there (could be like 50% depending how the TV deals go). That's a 133M cap, 162M tax.

    If we just take everybody's latest salary as a starting point, we have this:

    Pascal 38M
    Fred 23M
    Trent 20M
    OG 19M
    Scottie 33M max
    Precious ?

    Ignoring everyone else for now, the first 5 guys there make 132M. So eat up the cap. There are probably raises in there. Pascal maybe not, let's leave him, he might even decrease but let's leave him flat. Give everyone else the same % of the cap they signed last time, but with a 25% boost in pay, and give Precious his cap hold plus 25% and you get this:

    Pascal 38M
    Fred 29M
    Trent 24M
    OG 24M
    Scottie 33M max
    Precious 16M

    That's 164M. Add 8 vet minimum salaries (assume any 2nd round signings are offset by any 1sts in the meantime) and you end up at 180M, about 18M into the tax. So, yeah, can fit 5 guys barely under the tax, but for the 6th you are going into the tax by basically what they cost.

    Now, this is with Scottie approaching his early prime and everyone else solidly prime or late prime, so it might be a win-now-or-go-home scenario for this core in any case, so tax might be OK. So it's not a disaster. But it's definitely something worth thinking about, especially if you project bigger raises than I've put here for these players.

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  • GOLDBLUM
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).
    I feel like the market certainly may have something interesting for Chris. I hope we can retain him at a mutually agreeable cost.

    Thad though -- I'm curious about what his market value will look like. Not sure if you're suggesting we'd pay him 10M for the year, potentially? On one hand, he played well enough for us to warrant something reasonable going forward. That said... he'll be, what, 33? And he was strictly riding the bench for the Spurs before coming here... Who out there is gonna pay a pile of money for him? I hope we can bring him back.. I also hope we don't egregiously overpay him though. Be very interested to see where his price tag lands...

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  • Puffer
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Quick summary of the short term outlook re: decisions in the upcoming off-season.

    They have 114M committed to 10 guys. Have to add two minimum slots to that, so take 2M off the "cap room" and you have about 5M under the cap.

    And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).

    The other thing they can do this off-season is talk extension with Fred and Pascal, who are eligible as soon as .

    Fred is signed for next year, and then has a player option for 22.8M the year after.

    2022-23: $21.3M
    2023-24: $22.8M (PO)

    This summer, they can offer him an extension that would be 5 years in length, including the upcoming season he is already locked into, and the maximum they can offer would be this:

    2022-23: $21.3M
    2023-24: $25.5M
    2024-25: $27.5M
    2025-26: $29.6M
    2026-27: $31.6M

    Similarly with Pascal, he has the next two seasons already locked in, but can be signed to a deal with a max term of 5 years including those two years. Now, Pascal could wait a year, then be eligible for a supermax contract (depending on if he meets other criteria, like all-NBA selections), but for now this is what they can offer. His current deal:

    2022-23: $35.4M
    2023-24: $37.9M

    And the max extension they can offer:

    2022-23: $35.4M
    2023-24: $37.9M
    2024-25: $45.5M
    2025-26: $49.1M
    2026-27: $52.7M

    I'd imagine with Pascal they'd be hoping for something less than that maximum extension, but maybe not if it helps avoid a true supermax a year later.

    I think both extensions have to happen later in the off-season based on the timing of when they were signed but there's no impact on the current year cap anyway so no worries on that.

    Keep in mind with some of those numbers: there will be a new TV deal for the 25-26 season, so the cap will jump. Even before then, the cap has been rising faster than projected post-COVID (negotiated minimum was 3%, but they've outrun that). So 30M and 50M will be different in a few years than they are now. Even with just the 3% minimum increases from here on out the cap will be 133M in 2025-26 without any extra TV revenue.
    Thanks Dan. Look forward to this every year.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Oh, cap's 122M, tax is 148M, so that leaves about 34M if they want to fill out the roster under the tax. That 34M spreads pretty nicely to a) a minimum deal for our 2nd round pick, b) an MLE signing, and c) about 10M a pop for Boucher and Thad. But term considerations could drive up the AAV for the two FAs.

    Oh, and if they keep Brooks it's 115.8M to 11 guys. I assumed above they keep Banton but missed off Brooks. This also all assumes Svi opts into his PO.

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  • DanH
    replied
    Quick summary of the short term outlook re: decisions in the upcoming off-season.

    They have 114M committed to 10 guys. Have to add two minimum slots to that, so take 2M off the "cap room" and you have about 5M under the cap.

    And if your cap room is under 10M, you just use the MLE and operate over the cap. Strongly suspect they find a way to bring back at least one of Thad and Boucher, and then spend the MLE on a bench piece. What will be interesting is whether they prioritize keeping those guys with term or minimizing term to not commit salary in future years when they will need money to re-sign Fred and Gary (and then Pascal and OG and Precious a year later, and then eventually Scottie).

    The other thing they can do this off-season is talk extension with Fred and Pascal, who are eligible this off-season sometime.

    Fred is signed for next year, and then has a player option for 22.8M the year after.

    2022-23: $21.3M
    2023-24: $22.8M (PO)

    This summer, they can offer him an extension that would be 5 years in length, including the upcoming season he is already locked into, and the maximum they can offer would be this:

    2022-23: $21.3M
    2023-24: $25.5M
    2024-25: $27.5M
    2025-26: $29.6M
    2026-27: $31.6M

    Similarly with Pascal, he has the next two seasons already locked in, but can be signed to a deal with a max term of 5 years including those two years. Now, Pascal could wait a year, then be eligible for a supermax contract (depending on if he meets other criteria, like all-NBA selections), but for now this is what they can offer. His current deal:

    2022-23: $35.4M
    2023-24: $37.9M

    And the max extension they can offer:

    2022-23: $35.4M
    2023-24: $37.9M
    2024-25: $45.5M
    2025-26: $49.1M
    2026-27: $52.7M

    I'd imagine with Pascal they'd be hoping for something less than that maximum extension, but maybe not if it helps avoid a true supermax a year later.

    I think both extensions have to happen later in the off-season based on the timing of when they were signed but there's no impact on the current year cap anyway so no worries on that.

    Keep in mind with some of those numbers: there will be a new TV deal for the 25-26 season, so the cap will jump. Even before then, the cap has been rising faster than projected post-COVID (negotiated minimum was 3%, but they've outrun that). So 30M and 50M will be different in a few years than they are now. Even with just the 3% minimum increases from here on out the cap will be 133M in 2025-26 without any extra TV revenue.
    Last edited by DanH; Wed May 25, 2022, 09:08 AM.

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  • saints91
    replied
    Thanks DanH!

    Leave a comment:

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